Probability - LearnEnglish

22/10/21 18:10 Probability | - | LearnEnglish
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Probability
Probability
Level: beginner
Possibility
We use may, might and could (/node/1441) to say that something is possible, but not
certain:
They may come by car. (= Maybe they will come by car.)

They might be at home. (= Maybe they are at home.)
If we don't hurry, we could be late. (= Maybe we will be late.)
We use can (/node/1377) to make general statements about what is possible:
It can be very cold here in winter. (= It is sometimes very cold here in winter.)
You can easily get lost in this town. (= People often get lost in this town.)
Be careful!
https://learnenglish.britishcouncil.org/english-grammar/probability 1/32
Be careful!
We do not use can to talk about specific events:
A: Where's John?
B: I'm not sure. He may/might/could be (NOT can) in his office.
Notice the difference in meaning between can and may/might/could:
That dog can be dangerous.

(= Sometimes that dog is dangerous. I know.)
That dog may/might/could be dangerous.

(= Perhaps that dog is dangerous. I don't know.)
can and may/might/could
Level: intermediate
We use may have, might have or could have to make guesses about the past:
I haven't received your letter. It may have got lost in the post.
It's ten o'clock. They might have arrived by now.
Where are they? They could have got lost.
We use could to make general statements about the past:
It could be very cold there in winter. (= It was sometimes very cold there in
winter.)
You could easily get lost in that town. (= People often got lost in that town.)
could and could have
Impossibility
Level: beginner
We use can't or cannot to say that something is impossible:
That can't be true.

You cannot be serious.
Level: intermediate
We use can't have or couldn't have to say that a past event (/node/1406) was
impossible:
They know the way here. They can't have got lost!
If Jones was at work until six, he couldn't have done the murder.
Certainty
Level: beginner
We use must to show we are sure something is true and we have reasons for our
belief:
It's getting dark. It must be quite late.

You haven’t eaten all day. You must be hungry.
We use should to suggest something is true and we have reasons for our suggestion:
Ask Miranda. She should know.

It's nearly six o'clock. They should arrive soon.
Level: intermediate
We use must have and should have for the past:
They hadn't eaten all day. They must have been hungry.
You look happy. You must have heard the good news.
It's nearly eleven o'clock. They should have arrived by now.
Probability 1
Probability 2
Probability 3
Probability 4
Probability 5
‹ Modal verbs (/english-grammar/modal-verbs)
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Submitted by DaniWeebKage on Sun, 25/07/2021 - 16:02

Permalink (/comment/170558#comment-170558)
Dear Team,
1) Where are they? They could be lost in the town.
2) Where are
they? They could have lost in the town.
What is the difference? Thanks you!!!
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Submitted by Peter M. on Mon, 26/07/2021 - 06:30

Hello DaniWeebKage,
The second sentence is not correct.
Lost is a transitive verb, which means it needs an object. You can lose
something (lose money, lose your wallet etc) or you can use a passive
construction (be/get lost).
Peter
The LearnEnglish Team

Submitted by DaniWeebKage on Thu, 29/07/2021 - 05:52

Thank You!!!
1)Where is my book? It could be in the cafe.
2)Where is
my book? It could have left in the cafe.
Among the Aforementioned two
sentences,
The former is used when we are guessing what could
happen in the present.
The latter is used when we are guessing past
action or sth( maybe affect the present). Is my summary correct? If not,
correct me.
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Submitted by Peter M. on Thu, 29/07/2021 - 06:54

Hello again DaniWeebKage,
I'm afraid your second sentence here is also incorrect for the same
reason: leave is a transitive verb in this usage so you need an
object or a passive construction. The sentences should read as
follows:
1)Where is my book? It could be in the cafe.
2)Where is my book? It could have been left in the cafe.
As far as the modal verbs go (which I think is the main focus of your
question), your explanations are correct. We use could + verb to
speculate about the present and could have + verb3 to speculate
about the past. Well done!
Peter

Submitted by Selet on Tue, 23/02/2021 - 16:36

Hi Peter M. I see you using 'could in your comments when replying user
questions. Is 'could' used to make a suggestion and means be able to?
We can
use the definite article in several ways. When you say 'the bus' it could mean a
particular bus (Look - the bus is coming!) or it could have a general meaning
and refer to the means of transportation (I prefer the bus to the train).
Second,
can I say 'it may mean...'/'it may have'...? If so, is there any difference of
meaning?

Submitted by BobMux on Thu, 24/12/2020 - 06:02

Hello The LearnEnglish Team!

Could you please help me understand better
the difference between "can" and "might, may and could" when we are using
them to express possibility?


Permalink (/comment/163065#comment 163065)
Hello BobMux,
This is a very general question which requires contextualised examples.

Perhaps you can provide an example sentence to illustrate what you mean.
This will help to clarify your question and also ensure that our explanation
is clear for you.
Peter

Submitted by BobMux on Thu, 24/12/2020 - 14:49

Hello there!
I would like to know the difference in meaning of these two
sentences:
It can be dangerous to cycle in the city.
It could/may be
dangerous to cycle in the city.

Submitted by Kirk on Thu, 24/12/2020 - 17:04

Hello BobMux,
The sentence with 'can' speaks more about cycling in the city in
general, i.e. at any time, in any situation, for any person. The
sentences with 'could' or 'may' are more often used to speak about
a more specific hypothetical time or situation in the future.
For example, let's say a friend of ours was cycling in the city and
had an accident. We could say the first sentence as a kind of
comment on how dangerous it is to cycle in the city after this
specific event. The second sentence wouldn't work well in this

situation -- it's more for a time we're thinking of that could happen in
the future, for example, if we're thinking about whether we should
take our children cycling in the city tomorrow.
I hope this helps you make more sense of it.
All the best,
Kirk

Submitted by BobMux on Fri, 25/12/2020 - 15:20

Hello Kirk,
It was rather useful your explanation and thanks a
lot. But i am still a bit confused. I would be really happy if you
were able to help me understand better modal verbs:
In a book
it is said that the modal verbs "might", "may" and could are used
to express both possibilty and make a guess. This words is
given " this rush might/could/may be a symptom of something
more serious". So here is it possibility or making a guess?
And
how can i distinguesh between possibilty and making a guess?
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Submitted by Kirk on Sat, 26/12/2020 - 16:46

Hello BobMux,
Modal verbs are used in a number of ways, which can make

understanding them a little challenging. It's really difficult to
summarise these uses in a few posts here, but I will try to
help you here. Please know, though, that you'll probably
need to spend some time noticing them in different contexts

(ideally as you read text or listen to speech) to really
understand them well.
I'm not sure exactly what the difference between 'possibility'

and 'a guess' are -- these can be defined in different ways.
But generally speaking, I'd say 'may' and 'might' are
expressions of the speaker's uncertainty about something. If
we say 'The bus may be late', we are guessing but don't
really know. In a way, this is also saying that it's possible for
the bus to be late, though.
'could' can express the same idea of the speaker's

uncertainty. Being related to 'can', it can also express the
idea of potential, but again, in this context, I'm not that really
means anything too different.
I hope this helps you.
All the best,
Kirk

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Submitted by ahmed16 on Sun, 01/11/2020 - 11:51

Dear teahcers,
1- Why can't we use " can have " to make guesses about the
past like may have, might have or could have ?
2- Why can't we use " couldn't "
to say that something is impossible like " can't " ?

Submitted by Kirk on Sun, 01/11/2020 - 13:31

Hello ahmed16,
I wish that it were a bit more logical, but I'm afraid this is just the way that
English has developed as people have been speaking it over the last
several centuries. There are some technical analyses of modal verbs
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_modal_verbs) that can help
understand how they work a bit better, but I'm afraid they require a bit of
study to make sense of and are well beyond the scope of what we do here.
Best wishes,
Kirk

Submitted by ahmed16 on Sun, 01/11/2020 - 22:03

ok Do you mean that it is a language and its rules must be adhered to,
even if what I am saying is relatively true?

Submitted by Kirk on Mon, 02/11/2020 - 10:24

Hello ahmed16,
If you want to be understood by others, then yes, you generally

have to follow the rules that other people follow when speaking.
There are ways to break the rules and still be understood, but in my
opinion it's important to learn the rules most people use first.
Hope this helps.
All the best,
Kirk

Submitted by ahmed16 on Sat, 31/10/2020 - 23:43

Dear teachers
can we use " can have " to make guesses about the past like
may have, might have or could have ?
A second question
can we use " couldn't
" to say that something is impossible ?

Submitted by Jonathan R on Sun, 01/11/2020 - 03:13

Hi ahmed16,
Good questions! I'll answer them in order.
1. No. We can't use can have, but we can use the negative form can't
have to show that we think it's not possible that something happened.
Have a look at this page on Modals for deductions about the past
(https://learnenglish.britishcouncil.org/grammar/intermediate-to-upper-
intermediate/modals-deductions-about-the-past) for more examples and
explanation.
2. We can use couldn't have to say that something was impossible (in the
past), but we can't use couldn't on its own with this meaning. See this
page on can and could (https://learnenglish.britishcouncil.org/english-
grammar-reference/can-and-could) for more information.
Does that make sense?
Jonathan

Submitted by iamsashafierce on Tue, 13/10/2020 - 10:26

Coul you help me, please? Can we use OUGHT TO instead of SHOULD in
these particular cases?
1. They insisted that we should have dinner together.
2. It is essential that everyone should be here on time.
3. It is strange that he
should be late. He is usually on time.
4. If it should rain, take an umbrella with
you.
5. It is cold outside. I should wear a coat (like advice).

Submitted by Peter M. on Wed, 14/10/2020 - 08:27

Hello iamsashafierce,
We don't use ought to in place of should in conditional structures (#4) or as

an alternative subjunctive form (#1, 2, 3), so only in the last sentence (#5)
can you replace should with ought to.
Peter

Submitted by OlaIELTS on Sun, 20/09/2020 - 23:34

This tip is really interesting. Thanks.

Submitted by IsabelTim_123 on Tue, 08/09/2020 - 18:16

I reluctantly agreed to a postponement on condition that the sale should be

completed and the boat handed over by 31st August.
You may borrow the book
on condition that you return it tonight
Teacher, why is "should" used in 1st
sentence but not in 2nd sentence?
Thanks for your reply in advance.

Submitted by Kirk on Thu, 10/09/2020 - 16:30

Hello IsabelTim_123,
Personally, I wouldn't use 'should' in that sentence -- I'd just say 'be'. I
wouldn't say it's wrong there, but it does strike me as redundant. If you
check example sentences in dictionaries, I doubt you will see 'should' used
in similar sentences.
All the best,
Kirk

Submitted by Abhishek on Fri, 31/07/2020 - 16:28

It's ten o'clock. Dad might have finished his work. Or

It's ten o'clock. Dad might
have finished his work. Which one is correct ? Or Both are correct ?

Submitted by Peter M. on Sat, 01/08/2020 - 08:31
Hello Abhishek,
Your sentences are the same. I think you may have made a mistake in your
question.
Peter

Submitted by Ana Silvo on Wed, 27/05/2020 - 09:52

Dear teahcers,
Can you explain what is difference between may have, might
have or could have? Namely, I want to know difference between them like your
explanation about ' may, might and could ' in first paragraph. Thanks a lot in
advance

Submitted by Kirk on Wed, 27/05/2020 - 13:29

Hello Ana Silvo
There's no difference in meaning between them. 'might' is a little more

common in speaking and 'may' a little more in writing, but people often say
'may' and often write 'might'.
Note that each of these modal verbs can be used in other situations, and in
some of those situations, they don't mean the same thing. But here in the
context of probability they do.
All the best
Kirk

Submitted by Amit shukla on Mon, 11/05/2020 - 05:38

Sir, can I use modal verbs for future like

"He may have gone by tomorrow 2.00
PM."


Hello Amit shukla
Yes, that sentence is grammatically correct, though I would recommend

thinking of 'may' as expressing possibility more than the future.
Please note that when you post a comment, it is not published right away.
Please don't post the same comment twice; we'll be able to respond more
quickly!
All the best
Kirk

Submitted by Rany on Fri, 28/02/2020 - 19:26

Hi teacher, I have one sentence about possibility in the past and I just want to
know if it’s right or wrong “ His math may have improved by the time the exam
came “ Thank you .


Hi Rany,
The sentence is perfectly fine. It tells us that the speaker does not know if
the person's maths improved or not, but that it was possible. The meaning
is the same as might have and could have in this context.
Peter

Submitted by aria rousta on Fri, 06/09/2019 - 16:16

Dear sir We all know that modals have not indicate tenses, and they only
reflect four different aspects of simple, continoues, perfect and perfect
continoues. Base of this assumption why in some parts you keep saying this
modal use for past certainty, for example they must have practiced too much.
But at this example we can not say it is only reflect past tense, it might refer to
future or present base on the time phrase used with it , for example
For future,
they must have practiced well by tomorrow morning.
For present, they must
have practiced well by now.
For past, they must have practiced well already.
Would you please tell me if i am thinking in a right way.
Sincerely Aria

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Hello Aria,
Modal verbs have a range of meanings. When 'must' is used for logical
deduction it is always a deduction following another action, so the only way
to use it in a future context is to create an future condition. You cannot say
'They must have practised well by tomorrow morning' but you could say 'If
they win the game tomorrow then they must have been practising hard'.
Note that 'must have' can also be used with other meanings. For example,
when we use 'must' for obligation we can use it with future reference. For
example, you could say 'When I get back to the office you must have
finished this project or there will be trouble!'
Peter

Submitted by sam61 on Wed, 30/01/2019 - 11:04

I couldn't care less about that. Is this the second conditional without the
condition or does it refer to the past modal for ability? Is it ambiguous? Is it the
modal for possibility rather than ability? Can it be both?


Hi sam61
Without knowing the context, it's impossible to say which meaning is

intended, because both are possible. Normally the context should make it
quite clear.
All the best
Kirk

Submitted by jitu_jaga on Tue, 03/07/2018 - 23:12

Hi,
A-do you remember me?
B-how could I forget you?
In the second sentence
'could' is used for ability or possibility and which time it refers
(present/past/future). Please explain?

Submitted by Peter M. on Wed, 04/07/2018 - 07:14

Hi jitu_jaga,
I think we've already provided a lot of explanations on this point and can't
really continue explaining the same point with yet more examples. Why
don't you tell us what you think the meaning is here and we will comment
on your idea?
The important thing is not which label (possibility/ability etc) you put on a

word, but rather that you understand how it is used in communication.
Peter

Submitted by jitu_jaga on Wed, 04/07/2018 - 07:42

Ok, thank u Peter.

Submitted by jitu_jaga on Mon, 25/06/2018 - 11:53

Hi,
1.How could you do that to me? Here, in this sentence 'could' is used for
ability or possibility? and which time does this sentence
refer(present/past/future)?
2. What is the difference between possibility and
probability?


Hi jitu_jaga,
It's difficult to say for sure without context, but it looks to me as if 'could' is
being used to express past, or perhaps hypothetical, ability in the sentence
you ask about. If I found out that a close friend of mine planned to borrow
my car without asking my permission, for example, I might say something
like this. The idea is that a good friend wouldn't be able to hurt me in that
way.
'possibility (https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/possibility)'
refers to whether something could happen or not; 'probability
(https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/probability)' refers to
how likely it is that it could happen -- it's like the level of possibility of
something. The lottery is a classic example -- it's not probable that you win
the lottery, but it is possible.
All the best,

Kirk

Submitted by QaaZee on Sun, 24/06/2018 - 22:52

Hi,
They could come by car
They might come by car
They may come by car
Can you please explain me which of the above sentence is correct/more
accurate or can be used interchangeably?

Submitted by Peter M. on Mon, 25/06/2018 - 07:04

Hello QaaZee,
All of these are grammatically correct and they can all mean that there is a
chance that they will come by car. Other meanings are possible for some of
the examples. 'May' could refer to permission, for example, as in it is OK for
them to come by car, but that would depend on the context.
Peter

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Submitted by QaaZee on Mon, 25/06/2018 - 17:52

Thanks Peter,
Could you please provide an example with context for
'May' to further elaborate its use for permission.
Thank you once again.

Submitted by Peter M. on Tue, 26/06/2018 - 08:24

Hello QaaZee,
You can find examples of this on our page dealing with modal verbs
for ability, permission, requests and advice:
https://learnenglish.britishcouncil.org/en/english-grammar/ability-
permission-requests-and-advice
(https://learnenglish.britishcouncil.org/en/english-grammar/ability-
permission-requests-and-advice)
Peter

Submitted by jitu_jaga on Wed, 20/06/2018 - 13:48

Hi,
Look at the sentence 'I consoled myself with the thought that things could
be much worse'. In this sentence how can we know 'could' is used either as
past form of 'can' or 'could' is used for past possibility. we use 'can' for general
possibility and 'could' for possibility in a single occasion. So when we want to

say this in a past sentence like above, how can we know it is a general
possibility or a possibility in a single situation. In the past sentences we use
preterite form of 'can'. So I get confused it is a general possibility or a possibility
in a single situation.


Hello jitu_jaga,
The modal verb does not carry a marker for this within it so we use the
context to inform us. If the context is not clear then it is ambiguous, but this
would rarely matter.
For example, the meaning of your sentence is quite clear, I think. The
speaker is looking at a bad situation and consoling themselves with the
thought that something worse is possible. It may or may not be obvious
from the context whether the worse possibility is something specific (my car
is not working but it could be worse - my car could have exploded) or
general (my car is not working but it could be worse - I could have lost my
job, got sick or suffered some family tragedy). It really does not matter,
however; what is important is the idea that things are not as bad as they
could be, and that the person's ill-fortune is not so terrible when considered
in the right way.
Peter

Submitted by jitu_jaga on Thu, 21/06/2018 - 08:38

Thank you Peter. You always provide good explanations. Have a nice
day.

Submitted by jitu_jaga on Mon, 18/06/2018 - 04:27

Hi, We use may/might/could for possibility and may/might/could have for past
possibility. But we don't use 'would' for possibility. But sometimes, I find
sentence like ' You would know, Sachin Tendulkar is a great batsman'. I think
here 'would' is used for speculation if I am not wrong. In this sense, if we write
sentences like
It may/might/could rain tomorrow, could we write 'It would rain
tomorrow' or 'I would marry next month'?. If not then what would be its
meaning? I don't understand how to use use 'would' for future and past
speculation.Could you Please explain it clearly.


Hello jitu_jaga,
The sentence about Sachin Tendulkar you mention doesn't sound right to
me, at least out of context. In other words, perhaps in a specific context it
would make sense, but out of context it does not.
Your other sentences with 'would' to talk about possibility (rain or getting
married) are also not standard. At least in British or American English,
'would' isn't used to speak about possibility in this way. It can be used within
a conditional structure
(https://learnenglish.britishcouncil.org/en/intermediate-
grammar/conditionals-1) to speak about a possibility, but that is a different
structure, which is clearly indicated in most cases with an 'if' clause.
All the best,

Kirk

Submitted by SonuKumar on Sat, 31/03/2018 - 08:09

Sir, As We use must+have+ed form of verbs to talk about deduction and

probability in the past and use could or can+not+have+third of verbs to talk
about the same in negative in the past right ?
But is there a structure in English
like this must+not+have+ed form of verbs to talk about past negative deduction
and probability or to talk about something else?

Submitted by Kirk on Sat, 31/03/2018 - 18:45

Hi SonuKumar,
In answer to your first question, yes, that is correct.
'She must have gone home' means the speaker has good reasons to
believe she went home, or that it is the only logical explanation they have at
hand to explain a situation.
'She can't have gone home' means the speaker has reasons to believe that
it is impossible that she went home.
'She must not have gone home' is not as strong. It means the speaker is
making a supposition -- they think she probably did not go home, but don't
have strong evidence for this.
I hope that makes it clear.
All the best,

Kirk

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Probability - LearnEnglish

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Probability - LearnEnglish

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22/10/21 18:10 Probability | - | LearnEnglish

English Grammar (/english-grammar/english-grammar)

They may come by car. (= Maybe they will come by car.)

We use can (/node/1377) to make general statements about what is possible:

We do not use can to talk about specific events:

Notice the difference in meaning between can and may/might/could:

That dog can be dangerous.

That dog may/might/could be dangerous.

can and may/might/could

We use could to make general statements about the past:

could and could have

We use can't or cannot to say that something is impossible:

That can't be true.

It's getting dark. It must be quite late.

Ask Miranda. She should know.

We use must have and should have for the past:

‹ Modal verbs (/english-grammar/modal-verbs)

Submitted by DaniWeebKage on Sun, 25/07/2021 - 16:02

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register (/user/register?

Submitted by Peter M. on Mon, 26/07/2021 - 06:30

The second sentence is not correct.

The LearnEnglish Team

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register (/user/register?

Submitted by DaniWeebKage on Thu, 29/07/2021 - 05:52

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register

Submitted by Peter M. on Thu, 29/07/2021 - 06:54

Hello again DaniWeebKage,

1)Where is my book? It could be in the cafe.

2)Where is my book? It could have been left in the cafe.

The LearnEnglish Team

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register

Submitted by Selet on Tue, 23/02/2021 - 16:36

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register (/user/register?

Submitted by BobMux on Thu, 24/12/2020 - 06:02

Hello The LearnEnglish Team!

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register (/user/register?

Submitted by Peter M. on Thu, 24/12/2020 - 08:31

This is a very general question which requires contextualised examples.

The LearnEnglish Team

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register (/user/register?

Submitted by BobMux on Thu, 24/12/2020 - 14:49

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register

Submitted by Kirk on Thu, 24/12/2020 - 17:04

specific event. The second sentence wouldn't work well in this

I hope this helps you make more sense of it.

All the best,

The LearnEnglish Team

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register

Submitted by BobMux on Fri, 25/12/2020 - 15:20

Submitted by Kirk on Sat, 26/12/2020 - 16:46

Modal verbs are used in a number of ways, which can make

need to spend some time noticing them in different contexts

I'm not sure exactly what the difference between 'possibility'

'could' can express the same idea of the speaker's

I hope this helps you.

All the best,

The LearnEnglish Team

Submitted by ahmed16 on Sun, 01/11/2020 - 11:51

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register (/user/register?

Submitted by Kirk on Sun, 01/11/2020 - 13:31

The LearnEnglish Team

Log in (/user/login?destination=/english-grammar/probability%23comment-form) or register (/user/register?

Submitted by ahmed16 on Sun, 01/11/2020 - 22:03