odule- 4 -DiScreke Drobabilymoodelling

MaAkov chain

TE 8 a pucess inohieh there ane some finie

number oStaes or oukCome thak Can be occupie d
Staes do not-ove rlap
a any given time.,
one
In mahkov process bysem movesfvom
Stae lo another and pwbabilihy associaled with

this transiKon for each outcome ia Called

ransihon probabi liy
transihon pYobabilihes is
A matvix Containing
called a Iransikon mati

w o Sates is represenkd
pocess wih
A maskov

9haphically a s 1 - P

Stae-1 (Sloe-2

-
zample-
Car renta. Company

has too ofrces one aF bangalor

The Com pany
Eumku . The company aisanqes
and he other
twD FouiS of'ce in boFh he Cihes A Trave/e
he cihes fwm the
may Shant fom any of
hiArory the fotlowjng in formahon is available
 2

Bangaloe) Tum kuty

O,7

0.3
behaviou o£ ca renka
i o d h e long Yun
masaiz.
transihon

mpa
n by using
Cah oUe
number d
Assu mpion: Toal
ous sudy T
dusing
Constank

transihon
motni T B o0.63 0.4
0?
The

Fhe Cass ne onginally

Lel us assume hou
n Banqalore

behaurous
un
To find long
Tumku
Bangalore

O 6
O S2
o't8
0.556

0.u3 3 2 0.S668

Oy2996
0.6900y
5 o.S68)
O. y 2y
OSGSS
o-u252

Lnleyprekahoo: Ln the long run appvtimokely

57 will be
in Bangalore s
Cas wi ll be
u3.
approaim aely 5 days
ofiu LE Fas
in vmtm
each this State
o
 Votingtendencies
with
Consider a bkpee three posy syskm
republicans, DemoCra-and iodependenk
behaviouh of voers
ha i's the long run

dafa
in the el echon for he foltowin 9
0.2
O22

P O 2
(

ddihon on
's a
A Ssumphon; These no

deletion of voleYs.
D

M o-5 OoS o.2

0 2
o2 O6
O 2

chan ce dfwinming
paheshave e9,uad
Au the
ConcluSioni
12 the long r u n
Y3 n
y3 appni'nmately
0-29 0-26
5y, Voes vohe
0: 24 O2S0
2
0122 0.242 , 19 voke D
3 OS2
27.
Vole t.
O.S3
0 20 0 2.47
0.20 D.24
5 D.S4 0 2y
0.19)
O SLSD
0-19 0 2
oS7
E3 Tt is
ha found 25% vf fhe. sfuden
who ea at hos-elA e n to eal heae
at dionin
agarn whee a s fhose who ea
Tetun r a t .Thee a u ony
h ave a 93. s s u m e Hha
available and a
wo dionin.9 hatis
Shudents eak a one uf hese hall
atl he rermn
mode to Solve for lon9
a
Cox m l o a e
of Shudens eahing at each dinning
Dercentog

hall
man is
rancihkon pvbabiliy
Jhe
A0.25
0.F5
B0-07 0.93

o. 25 AnT O.07 Bn
An+
o.93 B,
Bn+ o.75An t

valu is LI o)
Tnihod

An B Con clusjon
run
Ln the long
O 25 &SYofShuden
0.88S hau
6.1IS e o in oionin9

3 0 091 0909
A an 91SJ. of
O.086 o.9S Sru den eat in dinin
O 08S
o,1S hal 8.
OD9S 0.91S
 Modelling ComponenE and sysem reliabiliy
compouncomponenk o r
Reliabiltty of a
has ik will nob
he babiliy
Sysem
S en Lak us
Specified
hime peaiod.
overa
fail yae of an em Over

to be failuie
dene Fct)
disknbubon

pmbabiliky
is a
v So tha A)
hme sibuh'on
funch0n
cumulahve
be the
E) Therefore
he reliabiuz
Correspondina
ft)
is given by
R1-F F.
Hime
a any ae Conn ecfed
h e Syskm
he Component of
in Senes

K x P2
Relinbilihy
h e sysem
Then
onL
he susem
Com ponend uf
Fhe
Hhen
i'n paRallel
Conneed

he Sy8emn kliobiuy s

Combinakon: 2 R, t (R tRg- l,4

 Kocket poppulsior Sysiem for a
space
Shutle wi}h boosfeh vockels im Seaje i
Shewn belo
o 8 0.91

in the Syskm Reliabiliky

Soti Le R, 0.9
R 0.8

Sysem reliabiliy- R,xRx R3

O6ss2
09 x O8 x 0.9)
=

Noe Ly Seies Connechiom, kesalfant Aeliabiliky

ia less than hak of he
o the Sysem
individua Component

connechon, kesultant heliabiliH

Dasatlel
Hhan hat of the
the syskm j8 95eobe
of
indivioua Componend.

he following syokms
Cind he eliabi liky f

in senes
So The sygem i
yglem RxR, xk3
the reliobiiy
reliobilily h e
me
.9d.9S xo«8 0*63
 iod therel;abitiky of he sysem
R
0.9S 0.94
0.96
lo 98
Sot C

Reliabitiy of C Rit Ra-R,R2

0.99to98- 0.99x0.98

RCc) 0.902
.97
2 Cc)
Rlc) 0.9998

8em neliabiliky
a
RCc) x R Pyx Rs
x 0.9S 0.94
o.9998 x 0.96

0.85 7108S4

(3) Cind Phe sye km reliabiliy

0-34
Ho-9
C C
C
O9Sx08 5 Puus)
KC) o.9s+0.85-

Rlc) s(-8 1-8 0.8v e o,9924

0-23 t0.?9
t0.- {0-21 x 0.89) -/ p.89 X o. 7#)
RCc)
xo.3*
o23xo-*) +0-23 x0.8
0.1261 9
9 0-2013 o.68$3~ 0.1931 f
KC)
-
 RCC 0.g80519
-0-34 xo.S6
RCG) 0-34+0-S
Rtc) 0.9 o-1904 =o.F096

Ohe in Sens
in C C2,3
h e Syskm Teliobiliky z R(G) x 2[G) xR[G)

=0.99LSx 098v 519 x 0 709

0G9oSSa

the seliabjliky of he fotlowing

FindFind
Sysem

o-13n
0.99 o.5

C
C

o.89 xO.9
0:23 xo.89
-

t0:7
-

t O.89
2 l c ) : O23 x 0.3?
* 0.23 xO
02XD.23
-

0.68S3 -

0.1991 t+ 01S>619
0.209
RC) 8 9
(C) 0.98oS)9 0-4 312,
0:6853to.3 P336p
094-
0-l49P4-
RC2)22-22 -
2Ce2 0.988868
RIC) x RlcL)
Reliabikk of He 9qskm
z 0.9696038b
 nsidev a s e o wilh a
CDplayer, m-Am
adio tunev, Spealcer s(oduod) and
pouwe amplifo
wih Jhe relobjbre
mponents as dsplayed
Apa he sygHmealtabikiy
Shown n 9 DeJes miDe
o98
CDJ Syesta
pa D.9
M-b
O 99
O.95 Spealu
C
C C3
RCC) o.95
eo.999%
O98K0.97
-

0.98 +
0,9
Re)
0:99+ 0.99 0:99x0.99 = 0.9999
R(c
he ysem a Ric)s Rtca) x Rlcz)
Reliabiy of
x0:9999
= 0.95 x O.9994
0.94933 o,99S
o.9999 0.998
Cind the sugem refobiliky tey b
Hayd
0.996 o.999 Mpuse
0.9998 fe 0.99
C Cz O999
Cu
RlC.) - 0.996
R(o) o.999

0.9999t0:99980.9999 x0.9998 0.9999990-

R.C)
RCC) 0.995 to.99s +0.999
0.995 y 0.999 + 0.99S x0.999)
0.99S xo.99s t

to.99S XD.99S xO.999

0.99001S + 0.99 4ooS +O.99yoos)
Re .989(
t 09890349S

.989 9.978D35 +0.989034 975

R(Ce)
RG) 0.919999935

0.99S x O.999
RIC) 0.99+ 0.999-
O» 999995

SySem kelabiluiy =

RlG)x RC ea) s Rlca) x

Rlt,) * R(G)
0.999999975xo.9999

0.99999998 x
0996X 0.999 X

O. 994998

more advanced Sygerm

2 Considey a

Cormpon en Teliabihhes os dsplayed

with
Deehmine he gysiem reliabiliiy
inP P
O.99S
Peol
Pe Tyney
ppy
O993 o999
Tanoy2 Spente
C C TuneY- O9L O91S
C3
)o.993

R) 0.999

R( 0.99s-
0.99sx099S

0.99s t
R
=0.99997S

0196

R, - 0.995T 0.99 -0.995x0.99 0,9999

+R 10=0.9984
2tRy- ?yD96 t0:q6 -

0.9984 0.9999S xo.9984

-

2C) 0.9999S
o.9999999 2
keliabiliy uf he 3y3em

tc;) x RIC) Rlea) x R(G)

0 . 9 9 3 X0.949
X
O.91999992 x 0. q244
099198 2
 2

Calculae Sqsie e liabitlily for he

fe tteoin O.99 999

O.993
0.995 098
C
C C2 C3
R(c) - 0.993
o.99993

RIG)-RtR-& R -

0.9890) x 0,998
98901+0,998-

RCC) o
0.9999I8d2

Rc) = 0.98

RgRa+R R
.980) t 0.98D) -0.980)

0.999 60399

Reliabithy ofthe Syaerm 8

O999975x 0.999998D2 x 0,9e

0.993 x
x0,996039

p.972
 l culae he Relrabilthy of he ygem 011
ohe foltooind
o99
999
O99S
o998 998
093
O.995
C
C C
Rtc)- o.998
Rtc t R s - P , P g 0.999995

.987- 0.9890
-

o99o2 - 0 . 988D2
O98 03198
R(C) o99999998

kC)= 0,98
KgtRq- Agka0.9999

Congey -0.999g
-

Kip Ry
KiotR
RC) o.9999 +0.9999-(.9999)
0.9999999

3
keliabilihy of the ygkm
Rle) x Rte) R)xLl
RIC)
0.998
0.9999Hxo,99999998 x o.98 x0.9999994
0.9730IS