IMPACT OF DRONES AND ITS SUGGESTED MITIGATION

MEASURES IN AAD

INTRODUCTION

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) popularly known as ‘Drones’, have transformed the manner in

which military force is applied. Drones have come a long way from their initial uses for

surveillance to electronic warfare system and carrying aircraft ordnance such as missiles

making them a potent weapon system. Rapid technological advances resulting a new breed of

drones with vastly greater prowess than their predecessors by harnessing the power of

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and swarming ability. What gradually emerged were the ‘drone

swarms’ where hundreds or thousands of small unmanned aerial vehicles were programmed

to take on a target.

Rapid development in such small size drone applications is due to their relatively low

production and operating costs in comparison to manned systems. In addition to it they are

highly mobile and can be rapidly deployed into combat, stealthy in nature, offers no loss of life,

simple operator training, plus a possibility of integrating drones in a single communication

platforms and navigation systems makes them ideal weapon system for complex missions and

targets.

SWARM is an acronym which stands for Smart War fighting Array of Reconfigurable Modules.

In context of the drone, the group of drones having ability to operate independently as well as

in coordination with multiple drones supported by artificial swarm intelligence reflecting

collaborative behaviour as exhibited by birds and insects. They can be launched from land, air,

sea, running autonomously or with human control, engaging multiple targets with pinpoint

accuracy, with sizes ranging from just a few inches to several feet across. Technology today
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allows them to fly together based on their own pre-fed intelligence and without any

dependence on the traditional ground control station. These swarms can achieve far more

complex tasks than single entities, precisely because they synchronise individual systems to

operate as a collective with a common goal. Drone swarms can defeat any existing weapon

system, and can deliver enough precision and coordinated firepower through large numbers of

expendable drones to cause destruction on a massive scale. Their impact could rival the

development of the machine-gun; anyone without their own drone swarm faces rapid defeat on

the battlefield.

NATURE OF THREAT AND LIKELY TASKS

When smart drones operate in swarms, traditional air defence systems are often unable to

counter this threat, rendering vital military and civil installations at risk of either espionage or

physical attack. The threat perceived from swarm drones is not futuristic. In 2018, two Russian

military bases in Syria were swarmed by thirteen armed drones, also in 2019, oil fields in Saudi

Arabia were hit by Houthi rebels using a combination of eighteen swarm drones and cruise

missiles. While these attacks involved relatively unsophisticated systems, the continuous

improvement in AI capabilities points to far greater risks in the future. The Russians launched

their top of the line Pantzir S Surface to Air Missile (unit cost of the system is $13.15 -14.67

million USD) to kill the seemingly crude drones proving the point that how a disproportionate

cost can be slapped on the defender by such cheap machines. Destroying multimillion-dollar

eqpt or aircraft with a few $1,000 drones is a cost equation any adversary would want.

What makes a swarm of drones superior to past technology is the fact that the drones can

communicate with one another to adjust the behaviour of the entire swarm in response to real-

time information collected from sensors on the drones in the swarm and can confuse and

overwhelm an opponent's defences. Drone swarms could engage targets across a relatively

wide area like staging Area, convoys, parked aircrafts, communication centre, ammunition and

fuel dumps, and much more. Many global agencies are working on systems where thousands
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of drones could operate in synchronisation, fitted with missiles or warheads capable of carrying

sophisticated attacks and overwhelm enemy defences with their sheer numbers. As the threat

of asymmetric warfare grows, acquiring intelligent swarm drone capabilities has become

equally important a deterrent as developing anti-drone technology.

TASKS / EMP

The way swarms of drones can be employed and tasks likely to be assigned in combat are

listed as under:-

(a) Surveillance. Positioned over the area of interest and tasked to deliver

uninterrupted and continuous information about the designated area. Every individual

drone in the swarm will have ability to produce its own output. Technology allows the

fusion of inputs from multiple drones sensor into one comprehensive picture of a large

area for decision making at Command and Control centres.

(b) Target Designation and Engagement . Drones equipped with cameras and other

sensors can identify potential targets, and relay that information to the rest of the

swarm. A weapon-equipped drone may then manoeuvre, approach and strike the target

from least expected direction.

(c) Suppression of Enemy Air Defence. At the operational and strategic levels, the

priority tasks will be penetration and neutralisation of enemy air defence system,

destruction of essential military and state assets. Only a small amount of explosives and

shrapnel would be required to cause significant damage to many of the sophisticated

radars, surveillance devices, and control system on missiles and aircraft. Damaging

critical equipment would render military platforms out of action.

(d) Deception. Swarms of drones could be used to deceive an enemy by generating

false acoustic, visual or electromagnetic signatures. Cooperative decoys could even be

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used to generate precisely-timed false radar returns that create the illusion of a radar

track moving through integrated air defences.

The potential advantages of using swarm drones as tools of warfare are :-

- It is a low-cost option as compared to the sky-rocketing costs of aircrafts, missiles

and guns etc.

- It allows dispersed combat power, which in turns forces the enemy to expend more

munitions.

- Unlike other weapons of war it saves the high-cost of ammunition.

Swarm drones have a tremendous edge in having a ‘mind of their own’. Once

programmed, these miniature warriors are capable of taking decisions, take default

actions where no orders exist or where there is ambiguity and possess the capability to

conduct intelligent autonomous warfare.

CHALLENGES FOR AIR DEFENCE

Drone swarms are the upcoming threat Air Defence planners are grappling with. The

conventional air defence systems is based on the integration of sensors like radars, electro-

optical systems, shooters like aircrafts, air defence guns, missiles and Command and control

system. Every sensor has a peak limit of how many targets it can track at a time and every

shooter has a limit on the maximum number of targets it can possible engage at one time.

The issue involves not just air defence against one or two drones, but against a count of

hundred or thousand drones coming in from different directions at nearly the same time. Such

saturation attacks have the potential to overwhelm standard Air Defence systems, even if the

attack can be detected in the first place.

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The prime reason for failure of traditional air defence systems against drone swarm is that they

are generally designed for use against large, fast moving targets and not drones swarms.

Impracticality of using Air Defence systems in counter swarm role is another factor which

inhibits their use against drones. After all, using a missile which may cost thousands of dollars

against a drone bought off-the-shelf for less than $100 is not the best way to use Air Defence

systems.

DEALING WITH THE SWARM. It’s not going to be easy for a military force to defend against

a swarm of more than a hundred drones. A kinetic type of defence involving missiles, gun sys

having high rate of fire, anti-drone drones, and machine guns will never be perfect against

swarm. Countering drone swarm can be broken down into two problem subheads.

- Detection of the incoming drone swarms.

- Ways to engage and neutralise them.

DETECTION OF DRONE SWARMS. Real-time swarm detection is essential for any

possible counteraction or elimination. These drone swarms are relatively slow moving aerial

vehicles and by virtue of their numbers present a target which can be detected by a suitably

deployed modern day sensors, be it radar or an electro-optical device. In addition to the

radars, the Electro-Optical (EO) sensor systems complement the radar solution ideally. In that,

if the radar is jammed or the radar cannot see the target for any reason like target lies in the

radar shadow/ radar dead zone etc, the EO systems are likely to detect the target.

The ground based surveillance provided by the integral early warning and fire control radars of

air defence weapon system, could be backed with airborne surveillance (through Airborne

Warning and Control System or AWACS). Algorithms are used to distinguish between drones

and other small, low-flying objects, such as birds.

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COUNTERING THE SWARM. To arrive at what will be requisite capabilities of system for

countering drone swarm. The swarm drone kill system must be an ‘area defence’ system. The

engagement of drones must not be restricted to a limited numbers, it must surround the whole

airspace being used by the swarm. The ideal weapons to counter the drone swarms are the

‘soft kill’ weapons. Such weapons target the swarms along the following vulnerabilities:-

(a) Electronic Counter Measures. The best defense against drone swarms might

simply by carrying out an electronic attack to jam/ disable/ disrupt the

communication links of the drones in swarm with the operators or control system

and other drones.

(b) Global Positioning System Spoofing . It is an effective countermeasure against

complex drone swarms, provided the targeted swarms are using satellite navigation.

Once the swarms are detected by sensors and its coordinates are available the

Spoofing system would alter the drones Global Positioning System receiver by

false positional data and can alter its course.

(c) Direct Energy Weapons. With a specifically shaped antenna or emitter, the

energy can be focused to produce effects within a confined area and limited range.

Under certain circumstances such weapons could ideally complement the other

techniques to neutralize small drones.

(d) High-power microwave technology. A high-power Microwave weapon that

broadcasts a broad swath of microwave radiation, frying any drones in its path like a

flamethrower. Still, no microwave weapon would get all the drones.

(e) Laser. Using killer laser waves to impinge on the miniature drones. However these

systems also have limitation of handling a finite number of drones by tracking each

one and directing killer laser beams on them.

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(f) Drone vs Drone. A swarm of drones may be an effective means of countering a

swarm of drones. The United States (US) Naval Postgraduate School has already

conducted a fifty on fifty drone swarm dogfight to validate effectiveness of drone

swarm in offensive and defensive role, the result was a tie. Besides US, China is

reportedly developing counter swarms as a defensive mechanism.

INDIA’S INITIATIVE

The State-run Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) has tie up with a Bengaluru based

start-up New Space Research and Technologies, which designs and develops

‘Persistence Drones’ (implying long endurance drones) for the purpose of observation

and communications.They are working on development of air launched swarm drone

going by the name of ALFA-S (Air Launched Flexible Asset - Swarm). The system

consists of small drones 1-2 meters long and capable of carrying 1.5 tonnes of

explosives. The drones have foldable wings & stealthy features. Due to their small size,

some 30-40 of them could be carried on board a SU 30 MKI platform or on an upgraded

Jaguar. They can propel upto 100 km/h. When in flight, the drones are connected to

the mother aircraft through infrared and electro-optical two-way data secured data link.

Once deployed by the manned aircraft, the drones scout for targets of opportunity.

These could be any type of designated vulnerable areas, Air Defence weapon sites and

so on. Once the target is acquired, it is destroyed by the drones in the suicidal mode of

attack by achieving a disastrous collision with the same.

In the 21st century, drone swarms have emerged as a potent force and are looked upon

as true Force Multipliers with the ability to share information among themselves and

delivering precision strikes on targets of choice. The evolving swarm threat poses a

significant challenge to all military forces at the tactical, operational and strategic level. The

trend of drone swarm proliferation is clear and countering this threat must be addressed when
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planning any operation where enemy forces have the potential to successfully employ drone

swarm. Considering these aspects the recommendations are as under:-

- Focus on the threat of drone swarms against military bases, especially air

bases, where a single drone can do a lot of damage against multi-million dollar

ac. That necessitates the Nation-level policy on counter drone swarm.

- Unlike conventional missile system, High power microwaves, directed-

energy weapons like laser weapons and Radio Frequency Jammers are an

effective and affordable alternatives as countermeasure. Additional resources

should be allocated for further Research & Development on the

countermeasures.

- A comprehensive policy and guidelines should be formulated and

implemented for procurement and use of drones.

The future of drone is rapidly moving towards AI, miniaturisation, weaponisation and multiple

mission employment. What will be the real difference maker for the future drone swarm is

increasing their autonomy, thus reducing their vulnerability to external countermeasures, add

artificial intelligence to their capabilities and all of sudden defending against drone swarms

becomes even more difficult. Drone swarms because of the offensive–defensive dynamic

present a force to reckon with in future and merit detailed analysis of the threat perception and

the means of countering it. Army Air Defence warriors need to include drone swarm in the

present and future threat spectrum and devise ways and means to counter this highly potent

and challenging threat.

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