Discussion of results and conclusion

Chapter 5

Discussion of results and conclusion

Summary

This Chapter deals with the discussion of the results obtained from the model.

Comparison of the obtained simulated results with the reported data is made.

Validation of the model is tested with observed data. The model results were

found to be excellent agreement with observed and reported ones. Finally,

conclusion and future opening are appended.

5.1 Discussion of the obtained results

We computed our results at some representative coastal and island locations of

Bangladesh for a specific major storm that hit the coast of Bangladesh. Records

show that April 1991was the most severe cyclonic storm having maximum wind

speed 235 km/h. To discuss the results, history of the storm is necessary. The

history of the storm is briefly described in the following subsection.

5.1.1 History of the chosen storm (Cyclone of April 1991)

The most severe cyclonic storm of the last century hit the coast of Bangladesh on

the early morning of April 30, 1991. The cyclone April 1991 was first detected as a

depression (wind speed < 62 km/h) on 23rd April in the satellite picture taken at the

Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO) from NOAA-II and

GMS-4 satellites (see, Fig. 5.1). The depression was located at 10.0oN latitude and

89.0oE longitude at 0900 Bangladesh Standard Time (BST) in the morning of April

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25. The system intensified into a deep depression in the evening and very quickly

turned into a cyclonic storm at midnight of April 25. The maximum sustained wind

speed was 65-87 km/h, having a central pressure of 996 mbar. It retained this

intensity till 1500 BST of 27th April when it was found to have developed into a

severe cyclonic storm. The maximum wind velocity was 90-115 km/h, having 990

mbar as the central pressure. On the same day at midnight, it turned into a storm

with a core of hurricane wind that had wind speeds of more than 130 km/h. From 28

April, it started moving in a north-easterly direction and finally, crossed the coast

north of Chittagong port at Noakhali coast in the early morning (0600 BST) of 30th

April. The track of the April 1991 cyclone is shown in Fig. 5.2 whereas the Table

5.1 yields the nature of the storm along with its position at different times.

The maximum wind speed observed at Sandwip was 235 km/h. The central pressure

of the 1991 cyclone was as low as 898 mbar, as measured by the Chittagong port

authority of Bangladesh. Vast areas in the districts of Cox's Bazar, Chittagong,

Noakhali, and Bhola were submerged. Fatality figures caused by the April cyclone

varies between 130,000 (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1991) to 200,000 (Rashid,

1991). Casualties in the unprotected islands were on average 40-50% of the total

population of the areas affected by the storm surge. Islands protected by

embankments, the figure may have been 30-40%, while on the mainland coast,

which faced the fury of the surge, deaths were probably 20-30% of the population.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.1 Satellite show of cyclone April 1991 (Source: BMD).

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Table 5.1 Time series for the positions and the nature of the April 1991 cyclone (Source:
BMD).

Date Hour Latitude Longitud

Nature of the storm
(1991) (UTC) ( 0E) e ( 0N)
26 1800 11.00 87.50 Cyclonic storm

April
27 0000 11.80 87.50 Cyclonic storm

April
27 0900 12.50 87.50 Cyclonic storm

April
27 1200 13.00 87.50 Cyclonic storm

April
27 1500 13.60 87.50 Severe cyclonic storm

April
28 0000 14.50 87.50 Severe cyclonic storm with hurricane

April
28 1200 15.80 87.70 core
Severe cyclonic storm with hurricane

April
28 1400 16.50 88.00 core
Severe cyclonic storm with hurricane

April
29 0000 17.60 88.30 core cyclonic storm with hurricane
Severe

April
29 1200 19.80 88.40 core cyclonic storm with hurricane
Severe

April
29 1800 20.80 90.40 core cyclonic storm with hurricane
Severe

April
30 0000 22.00 91.40 core
Severe cyclonic storm with hurricane

April
30 0200 22.30 91.80 core
Severe cyclonic storm with hurricane

April
30 0600 23.00 92.40 core
Crossed the Bangladesh coast

April

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.2 Observed track (path) of cyclonic storm, April 1991.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

5.1.2 Computational results

The results were calculated for 80 hours and were presented for the last 48 hours

from 8.00 Universal coordinated time (UTC) of 28th April to 8.00 UTC of 30th

April. It is to be mentioned here that comparison of our simulated results with

observed once is restricted due the scarcity of observed time series of sea surface

elevations at each of the stations mentioned (see, Fig. 5.2). In actuality,

Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA) collects hourly water

levels data at some of the stations. But observation shows that during a stormy

period a collection of data are rare.

Figures 5.3-5.6 depict water levels due to tide only during the storm period of

April 1991 cyclone at 12 locations, namely Hiron Point, Tiger Point, Kuakata,

Rangabali, Char Madras, Char Chenga (Hatiya), Char Jabbar, Sandwip,

Companigonj, Sitakunda, Cox’s Bazar and Chittagong, where each figure contains

results of three stations. The simulated results due to tide only fairly agree with

the ones presented in Roy (1995), Paul and Ismail (2012b, 2013).

Figures 5.7-5.12 show water level elevations due to surge only at some locations

with and without inverse barometer. It can be shown from the figures that water

level increases as the storm approaches the coast and finally there is a recession. A

strong recession can be found to occur at Hiron Point. A recession takes place due

to back wash of water towards the sea. It can be inferred from the figures that a

recession delays if one goes from western to eastern coastal locations. The water

levels due to surge at Chittagong can be found to be 5.29 m without inverse

barometer (see, Fig. 5.8) whereas with inclusion of inverse barometer it can be

found to be 5.41 (see, Fig. 5.12). According to the BMD, the water level due to

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

surge at Chittagong was 5.50 m. Thus water level due to surge at Chittagong

agrees well with observed data by the BMD. Maximum surge levels with and

without inverse barometer is found to be 3.44-6.88 m and 3.56-6.90 m,

respectively, whereas according to the BMD, there were 3.5-6.1 m high surge

along the coast of Bangladesh. Khalil (1993) reported 4-9 m surge along the coast

of Bangladesh during 1991 storm. Paul and Ismail (2014) in their study obtained

3.52-6.70 m peak surges along the region of interest, whereas Roy et al. (1999)

reported 0.70-5.45 m maximum surges along the coast of Bangladesh. Thus our

study compares the reported results due to surge fairly well. Our simulated result

due to surge at Hiron Point strongly deviates the result with the corresponding

finding of Roy et al. (1999). This may be due to the fact that the study due to Roy

et al. (1999) was conducted without ensuring fine resolution.

Figure 5.3 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to tide along the coast of
Bangladesh during the storm April 1991.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.4 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to tide along the coast of
Bangladesh during the storm April 1991.

Figure 5.5 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to tide along the coast of
Bangladesh during the storm April 1991.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.6 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to tide along the coast of
Bangladesh during the storm April 1991.

Figure 5.7 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to surge only associated
with the storm April 1991 along the coast of Bangladesh.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.8 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to surge only associated
with the storm April 1991 along the coast of Bangladesh.

Figure 5.9 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to surge with and without
pressure gradient force associated with the storm April 1991 along the coast of
Bangladesh.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.10 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to surge with and without
pressure gradient force associated with the storm April 1991 along the coast of
Bangladesh.

Figure 5.11 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to surge with and without
pressure gradient force associated with the storm April 1991 along the coast of
Bangladesh.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.12 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to surge with and without
pressure gradient force associated with the storm April 1991 along the coast of
Bangladesh.

Figures 5.13-5.20 display the water levels due to tide, surge and their nonlinear

interaction with and without inverse barometer at some of the represented

locations shown in Fig. 1.1. It can be seen from the figure that the early time of

the storm tide dominates surge level but surge dominates tidal level when the

surge is near the coast. From the figure it is inferred that a peak water level at

Chittagong occurred at 2:00 UTC and it was 6.33 m without inverse barometer,

whereas it can be found 6.45 m with the inclusion of inverse barometer. Based on

a report from the BMD the peak water level at Chittagong occurred at 2:00 UTC

of 30 April and it was 6.53. Thus our simulated water level agrees the sequences

and the fact fairly with the data obtained from the BMD. Maximum water levels

due to surge and interaction of tide and surge occurred at Companigonj (see, Figs.

5.7, 5.11, 5.15, 5.19), which is situated at Noakhali coast (see, Fig. 1.1). This may

be due to the fact that the storm hit the coast the north of Chittagong coast and it is

in actuality at Companigonj, which agrees well with the study of Flather (1994).

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.21 shows our computed overall water levels due to the nonlinear tide and

surge interaction of surge and tide with and without pressure gradient force with

the observed ones at three stations Hiron Point, Chittagong and Char Chenga. Our

simulated overall water levels from Fig. 5.21 can be found to be in good

agreement with observed data. Due to unavailability of observe data at other

stations, we could not compare our simulated overall sea surface elevation with

observe ones for those locations. Tests of sensitivities of inverse barometer, river

discharge and islands were also made. They are presented in Table 5.2. It can be

inferred from the table that water levels are found to be influenced by the factors

mentioned.

Table 5.2 Comparison of our computed water levels with respect to the mean sea level (in
meter) associated with the April 1991 storm along the coast of Bangladesh.

Coastal Surge Water Overall Overall Overall

location level by levels peak peak peak water
the study due to water levels water levels
interaction with levels without
of tide and inverse without islands
surge barometer river
discharge

Hiron Point 3.85 4.03 4.15 4.01 3.97

Tiger Point 4.25 4.64 4.76 4.57 4.37
Kuakata 3.44 3.82 3.94 3.86 3.90
Rangabali 4.12 4.56 4.68 4.48 4.71
Char Madras 5.58 5.86 5.98 5.62 6.20
Char Jabbar 6.57 6.88 7.00 6.21 7.20
Char Chenga 5.1 5.96 6.08 5.70 --
Companigonj 6.88 7.29 7.41 6.11 7.92
Sandwip 5.27 5.95 6.07 5.49 6.30
Sitakunda 5.13 6.09 6.21 5.63 6.21
Chittagong 5.2 6.31 6.43 6.11 6.43

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.13 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to tide, surge and the
non-linear interaction of tide and surge associated with the storm April 1991 along the
coast of Bangladesh.

Figure 5.14 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to tide, surge and the
non-linear interaction of tide and surge associated with the storm April 1991 along the
coast of Bangladesh.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.15 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to tide, surge and the
non-linear interaction of tide and surge associated with the storm April 1991 along the
coast of Bangladesh.

Figure 5.16 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to tide, surge and the
non-linear interaction of tide and surge associated with the storm April 1991 along the
coast of Bangladesh.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.17 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to the non-linear
interaction of tide and surge with and without pressure gradient force associated with the
storm April 1991 along the coast of Bangladesh.

Figure 5.18 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to the non-linear
interaction of tide and surge with and without pressure gradient force associated with the
storm April 1991 along the coast of Bangladesh.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.19 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to the non-linear
interaction of tide and surge with and without pressure gradient force associated with the
storm April 1991 along the coast of Bangladesh.

Figure 5.20 Water levels with respect to the mean sea level due to the non-linear
interaction of tide and surge with and without pressure gradient force associated with the
storm April 1991 along the coast of Bangladesh.

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

Figure 5.21 Comparison of computed water levels with observed data at Hiron point,

Chittagong and Char Chenga associated with the storm April 1991. In each case, a red

colour and a blue colour solid curve represents our computed time series data without and

with pressure gradient force, and a circle represents an observe data (whenever available).

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 Discussion of results and conclusion

5.2 General conclusion and future openings

In this study, the simulation of storm surges has been carried out including inverse

barometer. A model has been developed including pressure gradient force for the

prediction of sea surface elevations along the coastal area of Bangladesh due to

the interaction of tide and surge associated with a storm. The model is based on

semi implicit finite difference method (FDM) with proper stair step

representation. Nested grid techniques have been exercised. The model

simulations results are found to be better in comparison with observe and reported

results obtained through various investigators. Overall water levels can be found

to be influenced by pressure gradient force for the area of interest and the model

can be found to simulate higher water levels when inverse barometer effects are

taken into account. On the basis of the study it can be concluded that for the

prediction of accurate sea surface elevations along the coast of Bangladesh the

factors influencing surge levels should properly be taken into account and in that

perspective, the model is capable of computing water levels with sufficient

accuracy taking into account astronomical tide, storm surge and their interaction

along with the factors influencing surge levels including inverse barometer.

In this Thesis, wave breaking condition during a stormy period is not considered.

Future development and perspective of our research work concentrates on

studying the effects of inverse barometer employing the FDM method under wave

breaking condition taking into account the obtained results as an evident base

reference.

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