T&P GPPM2

CHAPTER 5: THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

I.I. DEFINITION AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HYPOTHESIS

The hypothesis is a formulation that is based on a system of organized and systematized knowledge (in a theory)
and that establishes a relationship between two or more variables to explain and predict probalistically (as far as
possible) the phenomena.

The hypotheses are made up of:

a. The analysis units (individuals, groups, schools, dwellings, etc.).

b. The variables that are considered in the units of analysis, that is, what is considered to vary in the units,
for example, the IQ of the individuals, the average grades in the groups, the number of children approved
in the schools etc
c. The logical elements that relate the units of analysis with the variables, and these with each other.

EXAMPLE

"The delinquency rate in young people depends on the emotional rejection of their children by the family
group"

• The units of analysis are: young people, family group and children.
• The variables are: delinquency and emotional rejection.
• The logical element is: “it depends on”.

I.II. SOURCES OF HYPOTHESES

The hypotheses usually suggest germinally where the research problems arise:

a. From the observation of phenomena and their possible relationships, from induction.
b. Of the empirical information : the researcher's experience, statistical reports, magazine articles, web
pages, etc.
c. Through logical deductions from theories or organized systems of knowledge.
d. To appear conflict or inconsistency of accepted theories and facts that do not fit with the explanatory
models of the theories.

HYPOTHESIS THEORY LAW

From several integrated hypotheses a theory can emerge (concept that gives a broader and more general
explanation than the hypothesis), also from several interrelated and integrated theories, a law can emerge.

Hypotheses 1,2,3 Theory 1,2,3 Law 1

I.III . FORMULATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS

The underlying hypothesis requires:

a. Observation of the facts related to the problem (distinguish them, specify them).
b. Enrichment of knowledge and theoretical frameworks (ie study and consultation).
c. Creative reflection to explain and order the facts according to certain presuppositions or knowledge
frameworks; since the hypothesis would act as a bridge between facts and theories.

Conditions to arrive at the fundamental hypotheses:

a. Prior knowledge of the researcher on the specific area is required.

b. Creativity is needed.

I.IV. TYPES OF HYPOTHESES

Due to the number of variables and the relationship between them, the hypotheses are divided into:

A. DESCRIPTIVE HYPOTHESES

With a single variable ; it simply states facts, phenomena, characteristics of people, etc.

For example: “Fifty percent of children in Guatemala show somatic characteristics of malnutrition”

B. STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS

involve various variables in the form of association or covariance between them.

For example: "The lower the socioeconomic status, the greater the dropout of schoolchildren will
respond."

In these hypotheses, a causal relationship between variables is not contemplated, but only a covariance
relationship, when one varies, the other also varies according to certain characteristics foreseen by the
hypothesis.

Covariance: It allows us to know how a variable behaves based on what another variable does. That is,
when X goes up, how does Y behave?

C. CAUSAL DEPENDENCE HYPOTHESIS

They involve several variables through a casual dependency relationship. That is why the changes in
the “casual” variable (the independent) are prior to those of another variable (the dependent).

For example, it can be hypothesized that a suitable chemical fertilizer (independent variable) increases
the cotton harvest (dependent variable).
 D. NULL AND ALTERNATE HYPOTHESES

Due to the type of formulation, the hypothesis can be null and alternative.

The alternative hypothesis (H 1) generally predicts a relationship between variables, and is formulated
in the affirmative; It is called fundamental. Also called fundamental, problematic research hypothesis, etc.

The null hypothesis (Ho) denies the alternative hypothesis, determining whether or not there is a
relationship between the variables being considered (you can exercise it by negatively stating the
formulations of the different alternative or fundamental hypotheses). Also called statistical hypothesis.

An example of this type of hypothesis is:

"Elevated fuel costs in Guatemala are a result of Russia's new business decisions." (alternative hypothesis)

"The high fuel costs in Guatemala are not a result of Russia's new business decisions." (null hypothesis)

I SAW HYPOTHESIS VERIFICATION

The process followed from when the problem arises to the end of the verification of the hypothesis is as follows:

a. problem arises
b. Analysis and outline of the problem
c. underlying assumption
d. deductive inferences
e. Logical consequences of the hypothesis
f. Empirical Tests of Logical Consequences
g. Result of those tests
h. The analysis of test results "verifies" the hypothesis or rejects it.

The hypothesis, according to pardinas (1984), is a proposition stated to tentatively respond to a problem. This
abstract proposition has to be operationalized to be verified. If the hypothesis lacks this operability, the researcher
will be full of uncertainty, and will not know what fixed point he is directing his research towards.

I VII. OPERATIONALIZATION OF HYPOTHESES

The process of operationalizing the hypotheses in four steps:

1. conceptual hypothesis. (Also called fundamental hypotheses, they result from the identification and
analysis of the problem, they are relatively abstract expressions.)
2. Indicators that operationalize the hypothesis.
3. Specific items, issues or questions into which the indicators are broken down.
4. Consequently, a conceptual hypothesis is operationalized through the concretion and specification of
those behaviors or controllable activities that practically express the theoretical content of the
conceptual hypothesis.
VII I. CRITERIA FOR PRE -ASSESSING A HYPOTHESIS

If the hypothesis formulated is not logically consistent, or does not relate to the problem statements, or clearly
contradicts the laws of nature, then it must be discarded without wasting time.

For example: It would be absurd to investigate whether it is true that "the size of the feet is related to school
success"

It is inadmissible to try to verify a hypothesis when its logical consequences cannot be subjected to empirical tests.

For example, it will be useless to waste time investigating whether "unmotivated students achieve poor results."

I.XI. NECESSARY INCLUSION OF THE HYPOTHESIS IN THE INVESTIGATIONS

In short , the process of formulating hypotheses results in the clarification, deepening and specific precision of the
problem; a greater purification of concepts and the relations between them is reached; the facts, previously
scattered, are coherently integrated; the pertinent facts stand out, and the useless ones disappear or fade away.