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Assessment of the aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent in CMIP5

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DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.01.017

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 Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Atmospheric Environment
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmosenv

Assessment of the aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent in

CMIP5 models
S.D. Sanap a, D.C. Ayantika a, G. Pandithurai a, *, K. Niranjan b
a
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008, India
b
Department of Physics, Andhra University, 530003, India

h i g h l i g h t s

Assessment of aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent in CMIP-5 models is studied.

Model fidelity and biases in representing aerosols have been investigated.

Aerosols are not well represented over Indian Subcontinent in most of the CMIP-5 models.

There is a need for further improvement in proper inclusion of aerosols over Indian region.

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper examines the aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent as represented in 21 models from
Received 1 October 2013 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, wherein model simulated aerosol
Received in revised form optical depth (AOD) is compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sat-
5 January 2014
ellite observations. The objective of the study is to provide an assessment of the capability of various
Accepted 6 January 2014
global models, participating in CMIP5 project, in capturing the realistic spatial and temporal distribution
of aerosol species over the Indian subcontinent. Results from our analysis show that majority of the
Keywords:
CMIP5 models (excepting HADGEM2-ES, HADGEM2-CC) seriously underestimates the spatio-temporal
Aerosol optical depth
CMIP-5 models
variability of aerosol species over the Indian subcontinent, in particular over Indo-Gangetic Plains
Model assessment (IGP). Since IGP region is dominated by anthropogenic activities, high population density, and wind
driven transport of dust and other aerosol species, MODIS observations reveal high AOD values over this
region. Though the representation of black carbon (BC) loading in many models is fairly good, the dust
loading is observed to be significantly low in majority of the models. The presence of pronounced dust
activity over northern India and dust being one of the major constituent of aerosol species, the biases in
dust loading has a great impact on the AOD of that region. We found that considerable biases in
simulating the 850 hPa wind field (which plays important role in transport of dust from adjacent deserts)
would be the possible reason for poor representation of dust AOD and in turn total AOD over Indian
region in CMIP5 models. In addition, aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) underestimated/overestimated in
most of the models. However, spatial distribution of ARF in multi-model ensemble mean is comparable
reasonably well with observations with bias in magnitudes. This analysis emphasizes the fundamental
need to improve the representation of aerosol species in current state of the art climate models. As
reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4), the level
of scientific understanding (LOSU) of climatic impact of aerosols is medium-low. For better under-
standing of short and long term implications of changing concentrations of aerosol species on climate, it
is imperative to have a realistic representation of aerosol distribution over regions with high aerosol
loading.
Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Aerosols can have significant impact on regional climate

through changes in radiative budget and modifications in precipi-
* Corresponding author. tation processes, cloud properties and dynamical state of the at-
E-mail address: pandit@tropmet.res.in (G. Pandithurai). mosphere (e.g. Hansen et al., 1997; Ramanathan et al., 2001, 2005;

1352-2310/$ e see front matter Ó 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.01.017
124 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137

Menon et al., 2002; Chung and Ramanathan, 2006; Lau et al., 2006;
2010; Lau and Kim, 2006; Wang, 2007; Bollasina et al., 2008;
Gautam et al., 2009; Manoj et al., 2011; Bollasina et al., 2011;
Ganguly et al., 2012a,b and many more). Depending on their opti-
cal properties, aerosol particles scatter and/or absorb solar radia-
tion which is known as the direct effect (Atwater, 1970; Mitchell,
1971; Coakley et al., 1983). The absorption of solar radiation by
aerosols (BC, organic carbon, fly ash, dust etc) heats up the atmo-
sphere while cooling the surface below thus increasing the stability
of lower atmosphere leading to inhibition of convection and
reduction in cloud cover. This is termed as the semi-direct effect
(Hansen et al., 1997; Ackerman et al., 2000). In addition, aerosols act
as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and interact with the cloud
microphysical processes. Any change in CCN due to changing con-
centration and properties of aerosols can alter the reflection of solar
radiation by clouds thus modifying cloud brightness, known as
Twomey effect (Twomey, 1977). Also, increase in cloud droplets due
to aerosols reduces the collision and coalescence rates limiting the
growth of the cloud and consequently suppresses the convection
(Albrecht, 1989). But alternately, studies have shown that higher
aerosol concentrations in an increasingly moist and buoyant envi-
ronment can invigorate local convection through various micro-
physical processes (Rosenfeld et al., 2008; Koren et al., 2008). Thus
the physical, chemical, micro-physical properties of aerosol, its
interaction with the background large-scale conditions and asso-
ciated feedback mechanisms determine the effect of aerosols on
regional as well as global climate.
The global distribution of aerosol loading shows predomi-
nance of aerosol activity over major source regions like Africa,
India, South Asia, and Amazon basin in South America. Prevailing
winds are responsible for transport of aerosols from continental
source regions onto pristine oceanic regions (Winker et al., 2013;
Remer et al., 2008; Kinne et al., 2006). Areas with high aerosol
concentrations, some of which are also known as aerosol hot
spots (Ramanathan et al., 2007b; Lau et al., 2009) are dominated
mainly by desert dust, biomass burning, industrial and agricul-
tural activities, rising energy demand in association with
modernization and development etc. The Indian subcontinent,
hosting 1/7th of the world population has high aerosol concen-
tration throughout the year with maximum loading over the IGP
region which is called as aerosol ’super hotspot’. This region is
dominated by natural as well as anthropogenic aerosols and most
of the species are of absorbing type. Dust is transported from
Thar desert as well as middle-east deserts, while high population
density, rapid industrialization, agriculture activities, biomass
burning, infrastructure development results in emission of BC
and other pollutants. Koch et al. (2009) compared modelled BC
emission and concentration in different regions against actual
measured data and found that surprisingly some disagreement in
between them. The BC inventories produced by several re-
searchers (Bond et al., 2004; Sahu et al., 2008; Kopacz et al.,
2011; Lamarque et al., 2010) emphasize that the past, present
and future emission of aerosols, especially BC are highly
uncertain.
Though significant progress has been made in understanding
the impact of aerosol on weather and climate, the effect of aerosol
on future climate is still a grey area of research. According to IPCC
AR4 report, LOSU of aerosols is very less (see link http://www.ipcc.
ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-ts-5.html for further
information) as compared to the tropospheric gases responsible for
changes in global climate. The aerosol processes along with its in-
teractions with radiation, cloud, precipitation processes and
atmospheric feedback mechanisms are not appropriately incorpo-
rated in climate models, and in turn recognized as source of major
uncertainties in the future climate projections (Houghton et al.,
2001). One of the primary requirements for studying aerosol im-
pacts on climate is not only correct representation of particle size,
composition, and origin, but also its spatial and temporal vari-
ability. Assessment of the aerosol distribution in coupled climate
models is very much essential for accurate quantification of aerosol
induced changes in future climate. So, the objective of this study is
to evaluate the distribution of aerosols over Indian subcontinent in
historical run using 21 models that participated in the CMIP5,
where the aerosol monthly data is available. The model data used is

Table 1
CMIP5 Model details.

Model Institution Model resolution

ACCESS1.0 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology 1.25  1.875
(BOM), Australia
ACCESS1.3 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology 1.25  1.875
(BOM), Australia
BNU-ESM College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, China T42
CESM1(CAM5) National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA 1   1
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in collaboration with the T63
Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, Australia
GISS-E2-H NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA 2  2.5
GISS-E2-R NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA 2  2.5
GFDL-CM3 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA 2  2.5
GFDL-ESM2G Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA 2  2.5
GFDL-ESM2M Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA 2  2.5
HadGEM2-CC Met Office Hadley Centre, UK N90
HadGEM2-ES Met Office Hadley Centre, UK 1.25  1.875
IPSL-CM5A-LR Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France 1.875  3.75
IPSL-CM5A-MR Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France 1.25  2.5
IPSL-CM5B-LR Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France 1.875  3.75
MIROC5 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for T85
Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
MIROC-ESM Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute T42
(The University of Tokyo), and National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
MIROC-ESM-CHEM Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute T42
(The University of Tokyo), and National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
MRI Meteorological Research Institute, Japan T159
NorESM1-M Norwegian Climate Centre, Norway 1.875  2.5
NorESM1-ME Norwegian Climate Centre, Norway 1.875  2.5
 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137 125

Fig. 1. Latitude-time climatological mean cross-section of aerosol optical depth as simulated in 21 models from CMIP5. Fig. 1v shows the multi-model ensemble and 1w and 1x are
for MODIS TERRA and AQUA observed AOD.

described in Section 2. The results from analysis is presented in
Section 3 followed by summary and discussion with Section 4.
2. Datasets used
The monthly mean AOD (at 550 nm wavelength) data for the
historical experiment of CMIP5 simulations is used for the present
study. Data from 21 models in which aerosols are incorporated is
analysed in the study (see Table 1). The models are forced with
natural and anthropogenic forcing for the period 1850e2005. The
main aim of CMIP5 simulations is to evaluate how realistic the
models are in simulating the recent past and provide projection of
climate change in near term (out to about 2035) and long term (out
to 2100 and beyond) time scale and understanding of the factors
which are responsible for further changes in global climate in
model simulations and projections (cloud feedback, carbon cycle
etc.) More details of CMIP5 simulations are mentioned in Taylor
et al. (2012). Since dust and BC are the most dominant aerosol
126 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137
species over the Indian subcontinent (Gautam et al., 2011; Ram
et al., 2010; Srivastava et al., 2012; Verma et al., 2011; Srivastava
and Ramachandran, 2013), the monthly mean dust and BC
loading simulated in historical run is analysed in present study to
assess their spatial variation over the region. However, the detailed
model description, parameterization schemes used, dynamical
processes etc. used in models are not discussed here, as it is beyond
the scope of the study.
For validating the model simulated AOD, we used MODIS AQUA
(for the period 2002e2005) and TERRA satellite derived AOD for
the period 2000e2005. The MODIS is a 36 band scanning radi-
ometer onboard NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites (Kaufman et al.,
2002; Platnick et al., 2003). We have used Terra MODIS Level-3
monthly data product with 1  1 spatial resolution (see link-
http://gdata1.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/daac-bin/G3/gui.cgi?instance_
id¼MODIS_MONTHLY_L3). The MODIS aerosol cloud mask iden-
tifies clouds at 0.5  0.5 km resolution, but retrieves aerosol at
10  10 km resolution. Because of the relative fine resolution of the
sensor’s pixel size, aerosols can be derived even in partly cloudy
situations when there are clouds within the 10 km retrieval box.
Details of operational aerosol cloud mask used in MODIS aerosol
retrieval can be found in Martins et al. (2002) and Remer et al.
(2012). Earth Probe total ozone monitoring system (EPTOMS)/
Ozone monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index (AI) data for the
period 2000 to 2005 is used for comparison with dust distribution
in CMIP5 models. AI is an index that detects the presence of UV-
absorbing aerosols such as dust and soot. Positive values of Aero-
sol Index generally represent absorbing aerosols (dust and smoke)
while small or negative values represent non-absorbing aerosols
and clouds. Also, BC emission (Lamarque et al., 2010) data from
CMIP5 is used for evaluation of model simulated BC loading. For
ARF calculations, we used Modern Era Retrospective analysis for
Research and Analysis (MERRA) data (Rienecker et al., 2011).
MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for satellite era using state of the art
data assimilation system version-5 (GEOS-5) which includes many
modern observing systems in climate framework. The European
Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA interim
reanalysis 850 hPa wind fields are used for comparing the CMIP5
model simulated wind.
3. Results
3.1. Temporal and meridional variation of AOD over Indian
subcontinent
Over the years, studies have linked the IGP aerosol distribution
to cloud microphysics, tropospheric temperature warming,
monsoon circulation and precipitation, aerosol effects, climate
change, change in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI),
monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations, population growth (Sarkar
and Kafatos, 2004; Prasad and Singh, 2007: Lau et al., 2006;
Ramanathan et al., 2007a, 2007b; Tripathi et al., 2007; Bollasina
et al., 2008, 2011; Panicker et al., 2010a, 2010b; Shrestha and
Barros, 2010; Manoj et al., 2011; Kishcha et al., 2011) etc. There-
fore, present study focuses on assessment of CMIP5 model simu-
lated aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent with emphasis
on IGP region. The latitude-time climatological cross-section of the
AOD for 21 models participating in CMIP5 averaged over the
longitude 68 E-98 E is plotted in Fig. 1. Aerosol distribution shows
wide variation with latitude over Indian region. As we move to-
wards north, aerosol concentration increases and found to be
maximum over the IGP region. Himalayan barrier helps in trapping
the aerosols over IGP region and foothills of Himalaya giving high
AOD values. Also upward motions due to convective activity and
orographically forced uplift are responsible for transporting
aerosols to middle and upper troposphere (Liu et al., 2008). The
meridional aerosol variation over Indian region is plausibly well
represented in all models, but magnitude is highly underestimated.
Most of the models fail to simulate the correct phase of the annual
cycle. The magnitude and peak in the annual cycle of AOD in many
models are not matching with observations. The models
HADGEM2-ES (Fig 1a), HADGEM2-CC (Fig 1b), GISS-E2-H (Fig 1c),
GISS-E2-R (Fig 1d), CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 (Fig 1e) IPSL-CM5A-LR (Fig 1i),
IPSL-CM5B-LR (Fig 1j), IPSL-CM5A-MR (Fig 1k) could simulate the
phase of the annual cycle well. However, the magnitude varies from
model to model. Models HADGEM2-ES, HADGEM2-CC over-
estimates the magnitude of AOD, while annual cycle in GISS-E2-R,
GISS-E-2-H, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 is comparable with observations.
3.2. Climatology and bias in model simulations
The uncertainties in estimating the climate sensitivity of
anthropogenic as well as natural aerosols is huge in experimental
as well as modelling approaches (Hansen et al., 2007). The obser-
vations of aerosols do not have a dense global network so as to give
appropriate spatial distribution. Satellite observations are not able
to quantify anthropogenic and natural emission, but have an
advantage of providing large scale spatial distribution. Though
aerosol modelling, which requires process studies, in situ mea-
surements, and satellite observations have made substantial
progress in recent time (Climate Change Science Program, 2009)
but still certain issues regarding magnitude and spatial distribution
of the aerosols in climate models are yet to be resolved (Ghan and
Schwartz, 2007). So, the evaluation of the aerosol distribution in
CMIP5 models is of prime importance to improve the model sim-
ulations of future projections.
Taylor diagram is used to evaluate the fidelity of the models in
simulating the patterns of climatological annual mean AOD distri-
bution over the IGP region (Fig. 2). The Taylor skill is computed over
the domain 24 N-30 N and 70 E-90 E. Taylor diagram gives brief
statistical information about how well the patterns of correlation,
root-mean-square difference (RMSE), and the ratio of variances
match between different variables/models (Taylor, 2001; Martin
et al., 2004). The normalized standard deviations for AOD are
represented by the distance from the origin on both sides (X and Y
axis). Here, models are normalized by the standard deviation of the
observed climatology. The distance from the reference point to the
plotted point gives the RMSE, which are represented by concentric
circles. The plotted point closer to the reference point, lesser will be
Fig. 2. The Taylor diagram for spatial pattern of annual climatological AOD. The Taylor
skill is computed over the region 23 N-30 N, 70 E-90 E (Indo-Gangetic plains).
 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137 127

Fig. 3. The climatology of AOD (shaded) and 850 hPa wind bias (model-ERA interim) in 21 models of CMIP5 over Indian subcontinent. Fig. 3v shows the multi-model ensemble, 3w
and 3x are for MODIS TERRA and AQUA observed AOD. The wind field in Fig. 3w is mean climatological wind from ERA-interim.
128 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137

Fig. 4. Model bias in simulated AOD (difference between model simulated AOD and MODIS satellite observed AOD) in 21 models. Fig. 4v shows the multi-model ensemble bias.

the RMSE. The correlation between the model and the climatology
is the cosine of the polar angle (i.e in ideal case, if correlation be-
tween the model and observation is 1, then the point will lie on the
horizontal axis). Therefore, model simulated variable which has
least RMSE, highest correlation coefficient (CC), and normalized
standard deviation close to unity considered to be the best. Taylor
diagram of the climatological AOD over the aerosol dominant re-
gion of the IGP gives the fidelity of the model in simulating the
climatological pattern of AOD (Fig. 2). The model HADGEM2-ES,
HADGEM2-CC, GISS-E2-H, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, IPSL-
CM5A-MR shows CC greater than 0.7. Although these seven
models show better correlation, the variance is underestimated by
all of them except HADGEM2-ES and HADGEM2-CC. The magni-
tude and phase of the AOD simulated over IGP by HADGEM2-ES
and HADGEM2-CC are very close to the observations, therefore
considered to be the best for simulating the AOD over IGP as
compared to other models (see Fig. 1aeb, Fig 2).
Fig. 3 shows the annual climatological spatial pattern of AOD
and 850 hPa wind biases (MODEL-ERA interim) as simulated in 21
CMIP5 models over Indian subcontinent for the period 2000e2005.
The Fig. 3w and 3x shows the MODIS TERRA and AQUA satellite
derived AOD for comparison with model simulation. The mean
distribution of AOD over Indian subcontinent in model HADGEM2-
ES, HADGEM2-CC (Fig. 3aeb) is comparable with MODIS except
eastern part of the Pakistan. The aerosol concentration over the
major aerosol dominant regions like IGP, western China and
northern Arabian Sea is well captured by HADGEM2-ES
and HADGEM2-CC. The aerosol distribution is found to be
 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137
underestimated in magnitude over IGP region in model GISS-E2-H
(Fig 3c), GISS-E2-R (Fig 3d), CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 (Fig 3e), ACCESS1.0 (Fig
3f) and ACCESS1.3 (Fig 3g). The IPSL-CM5A-LR (Fig 3i), IPSL-CM5B-
LR (Fig 3j) and IPSL-CM5A-MR (Fig 3k) showed maximum aerosol
distribution over NW India and southern Pakistan region. The
overestimation of dust over this region in comparison to other
aerosol species might be the reason for this; the details are
explained in next subsection. Remaining models could not simulate
the appropriate mean AOD distribution over Indian Subcontinent.
Spatial distribution of the AOD is underestimated over Indian
subcontinent in majority of the CMIP5 models.
As winds play an important role in transport of aerosols, we
calculated the model bias in simulating the 850 hPa wind. Inter-
estingly, majority of the models (wherein aerosols are not well
represented) show anomalous easterly/weak wind. While, models
wherein aerosols are well represented (HADGEM2-ES HADGEM2-
CC) show westerly wind transport, which is in corroborative with
ERA-interim mean 850 hPa wind pattern (Fig 3w) over aerosol core
region (IGP and North India). Wind exhibits the large seasonal
variability in AOD over India (Ramachandran et al., 2011). There-
fore, seasonal distribution of the aerosols and 850 hPa wind bias in
CMIP5 models have been analysed over Indian region (Fig S1eS4).
It has been observed that the aerosol transport due to wind is
weakly represented in most of the models considered in this study.
Majority of the models could not simulate the seasonal variation of
aerosols correctly. However, the multi-model ensemble during pre-
monsoon (MAM) and monsoon (JJAS) shows comparable results
with observation, but magnitude is found to be underestimated.
The aerosol distribution during ON and DJF is underestimated in
multi-model ensemble as well. During JJAS, model HADGEM2-ES
and HADGEM2-CC overestimates the AOD as well as 850 hPa
wind. The AOD found to be overestimated over the region of
Eastern and southern India during the monsoon season in GISS-E2-
H and GISS-E2-R, while 850 hPa winds are found to be biased/weak
(anomalous easterlies) in majority of the models. Also, model
chemistry in representing the aerosol play an important role, for
example, model MIROC5 in Fig. 3i shows weaker wind anomalies/
easterlies, but the aerosol spatial distribution pattern matched
quite well with a bias in magnitude. Thus, bias in simulating the
850 hPa wind over the Indian subcontinent is the plausible reason
for poor representation of the aerosol distribution over Indian re-
gion in CMIP5 models. The biases in the simulation of annual mean
AOD distribution in 21 models over Indian sub-continent are also
analysed (Fig. 4). Almost all models are found to be negatively
biased over the IGP region except HADGEM2-ES and HADGEM2-CC
(Fig. 4aeb), while many models simulates positive bias over
western China region and few show considerable bias over north-
ern Arabian Sea.
3.3. Simulated BC and dust loadings over Indian subcontinent
Among various species of aerosols, BC is a strong absorber of the
incoming shortwave radiation and hence significant contributor to
atmospheric warming both on global and regional scale
(Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008). Due to high solar irradiance
in the tropical regions, the impact of BC is also very high over
tropics in spite of the globally distributed sources. According to
2011 census of India, the population density is found to be high over
central north east (NE) region (Fig. 5). For further information
please see the link- http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-re-
sults/census2011_PPT_paper1.html. Sahu et al. (2008) found that
the decadal growth of the BC is observed to be high over eastern
part of the southern India and IGP (highly populated region). The
agriculture residual and domestic burning is also very prominent
over this region (Narang and Virmani, 2001). Therefore, it is
129
Fig. 5. Population density over Indian region according to 2011 census of India.
expected that the model should simulate the maximum BC loading
over the region of high population density and biomass burning
(central to east IGP). The model simulated BC loading (gm2) for
CMIP5 is plotted in Fig. 6 and compared with BC emission (Fig 6u)
from CMIP5 (Lamarque et al., 2010). Only models for which BC
loading data is available have been shown. The models HADGEM2-
ES, (Fig 6a) HADGEM2-CC (Fig 6b), ACCESS1.0 (Fig 6f), and AC-
CESS1.3 (Fig 6g) could simulate the spatial distribution of BC
loading correctly. The maximum BC loading simulated by these
models are found to be over the highly populated region of the IGP
which is dominated by anthropogenic activities. The model CSIRO-
Mk3.6.0 (Fig 6e) could simulate the BC loading distribution
reasonably well. The remaining models could simulate the BC
loading region properly, but magnitude of loading is very much
underestimated by all of them.
As mentioned in earlier sections, the role of absorbing aerosols
over IGP have an implication to regional circulation changes,
monsoon rainfall, cloud effects etc (Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Kim,
2006; Bollasina et al., 2008; Nigam and Bollasina, 2010; Lau and
Kim, 2011), the appropriate representation of dust in climate
models is essential to study its impact on regional climate. The dust
loading (gm2) distribution over Indian subcontinent from models
participating in CMIP5 along with TOMS AI distribution (Fig 7t) is
plotted in Fig. 7. Only model for which dust loading data was
available is shown. The spatial distribution of dust loading is
observed to be reasonably well represented in models HADGEM2-
ES, HADGEM2-CC (Fig. 7aeb) and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 (Fig 7e) over IGP
region, while it is found to be underestimated in magnitude and
confined to the NW region of the India in GISS-E2-H (Fig 7c), GISS-
E2-R (Fig 7d), IPSL-CM5A-LR (Fig 7g), IPSL-CM5B-LR (Fig 7h), IPSL-
CM5A-MR (Fig 7i), MIROC5 (Fig 7j), MRI-CGCM3 (Fig 7r). The dust
loading is found to be almost absent in remaining models over IGP.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the huge biases in simulating
the 850 hPa winds (see Section 3.2) in CMIP5 models lead to poor
representation of the dust over core region of IGP and North India,
as these regions are dominated by the transported dust from the
adjacent deserts. Along with BC and dust, other aerosol species are
also equally important (e.g, sulphate, sea-salt, OC etc), but
130 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137

Fig. 6. The BC loading (gm2) distribution over Indian subcontinent simulated in 19 models. The BC loading data was found to be absent in BNU-ESM and CESM1 (CAM5) model
outputs. Fig. 6t shows the multi-model ensemble of BC and Fig. 6u is the BC emission (Kg m2 s1) from CMIP5.
 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137 131

Fig. 7. Same as Fig. 6, but for dust loadings (gm2). Here, dust loading data from ACCESS1.3, BNU-ESM and CESM1 (CAM5) model outputs are found to be missing. Fig. 7t is the TOMS
AI climatology for the period 2000e2005.

unavailability of the observed spatial coverage of the data for these
species to compare with CMIP5 models constrain our analysis to BC
and dust only. However, sulphate loading distribution is shown in
the Figure S5.
3.4. Aerosol radiative forcing
The ARF at the surface/TOA is defined as the difference in the
net fluxes (downward minus upward) with and without aerosols
at surface/TOA. The ARF over IGP and north-India show strong
variability due to various factors like- prevailing meteorological
conditions, dust storms during pre-monsoon, biomass burning
etc., as it depend on the photochemical and microphysical prop-
erties of the aerosols, nature of underlying surface, cloudiness etc
(Pandithurai et al., 2008; Prasad et al., 2006). The ARF calculations
at different Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites over IGP
region have been reported in earlier studies and it is in the range
of 2 W m2 at TOA and w 31 W m2 at surface (Prasad et al.,
2006; Srivastava et al., 2011). Since, radiation fluxes with aerosols
and without aerosols are not available in the CMIP5 historical run,
132 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137

Fig. 8. The SARF for 21 CMIP5 models for year 2005 relative to 1850. Fig. 8w shows the MERRA derived SARF for the year 2005.
S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137 133

Fig. 9. Same as Fig. 8, but for TOA.

134 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137

Fig. 10. Same as Fig. 8, but for AARF.

 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137
we considered 1850 year as the pre-industrial year (low anthro-
pogenic aerosol) and 2005 as the present day (high anthropogenic
aerosol). The differences in the clear sky shortwave radiation
fluxes between 2005 and 1850 give us aerosol radiative forcing
(ARF) for 2005 relative to year 1850. The model simulated ARF at
surface (SARF), top of the atmosphere (TOA), and atmosphere
(AARF) is compared with MERRA derived forcings for the year
2005. The radiative forcing is not a perfect indicator of the global
mean temperature change response to the forcing, but it is nor-
mally reasonably close (Shindell et al., 2013). The SARF, TOA-ARF
and AARF for CMIP5 models are presented in Figs. 8e10. The
SARF and AARF (Figs. 8 and 10) in CMIP5 models are under-
estimated/overestimated as compared to MERRA in majority of
CMIP5 models (for e. g GISS-E2-R, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, CESM1 (CAM5),
MIROC-CHEM, MIROC-5, GFDL-CM3). The TOA-ARF is convincingly
well compared with MERRA. Nevertheless, the multi-model
ensemble derived spatial distribution of SARF, TOA-ARF and
AARF’s are comparable with MERRA derived forcing for year 2005
with bias in magnitudes.
4. Summary and conclusion
Various studies reported that regional and global aerosol con-
centration show increasing trend in recent decades (Manktelow
et al., 2007; Hsu et al., 2012; Mishchenko et al., 2007), this will
have vital bearing on changes in global as well as regional climate.
For accurate quantification of aerosol induced changes in future
climate, it is essential to simulate aerosol concentration in present
day climate simulation correctly in space and time. In this study, we
evaluated the AOD simulated in 21 models, participated in CMIP5
project, against the MODIS satellite observed AOD. We also studied
BC and dust loading distribution simulated by the models. We
carried out our study over Indian subcontinent with special
emphasis on IGP region. The pattern of annual cycle over IGP and
meridional variation of the AOD over Indian region is simulated
considerably well in most of the models, but magnitude is under-
estimated in majority of the models except HADGEM2-ES and
HADGEM2-CC. To evaluate the fidelity of the models on annual
mean climatology of the AOD over IGP, we carried out Taylor dia-
gram analysis and found that models HADGEM2-ES and
HADGEM2-CC simulates AOD appropriately over IGP region.
However, models GISS-E2-R, GISS-E2-H and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 simu-
lates AOD over IGP convincingly well with slight underestimation
in magnitude. The biases in model simulation of the AOD distri-
bution are estimated over the Indian subcontinent. Surprisingly, it
is found that majority of the models show huge negative bias
(underestimation) in AOD simulation over IGP region. The model
HADGEM2-ES and HADGEM2-CC show positive bias (over-
estimation) over the IGP including major aerosol dominant regions
of the Indian subcontinent (IGP, northern Arabian Sea, far NE region
of India).
The dust and BC are the major dominant aerosol species found
over IGP region. It has an implication to change in cloud prop-
erties, air quality research, weather and climate change issues,
Indian summer monsoon variability and so on (Lau and Kim,
2006; Prasad and Singh, 2007; Manoj et al., 2011; Pandithurai
et al., 2008; Panicker et al., 2010b). Therefore, BC and dust
loading distribution over Indian subcontinent is studied in CMIP5
models and found that most of the models underestimate the
spatial distribution over IGP region. The models HADGEM2-ES,
HADGEM2-CC, ACCESS1.0, and ACCESS1.3 could simulate BC
loading distribution correctly, while all other models underesti-
mate the BC loading distribution over IGP region. The spatial
distribution of dust is plausibly well represented in HADGEM2-
ES andHADGEM2-CC, whereas majority of the models
135
underestimate the dust distribution. It has been found that the
enormous biases in simulating the 850 hPa winds by majority of
CMIP5 models would have been lead to poor representation of
dust and total AOD. Also, CMIP5 model ARF distribution over
Indian region is compared with MERRA ARF. The SARF and AARF
is overestimated/underestimated in most of the models. None-
theless, spatial pattern of multimodel-ensemble ARF (SARF, TOA-
ARF and AARF) are comparable with MERRA forcing with bias in
magnitudes.
With rising attention in studying the impact of atmospheric
aerosols (natural and anthropogenic) over Indian subcontinent on
Indian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation, modifica-
tion in cloud microphysics, climate change issues etc, the correct
spatial distribution of aerosols in climate models are very much
essential. The spatial distribution of aerosols over Indian subcon-
tinent in majority of the CMIP5 model simulations are found to be
underestimated over aerosol dominant region of IGP, which has an
implication to above mentioned issues. The model HADGEM2-ES
and HADGEM2-CC are found to be good for aerosol distribution
and can be used for studying the aerosol processes over Indian
subcontinent.
This study reveals that most of the CMIP5 models were unable
to simulate the aerosol distribution correctly over Indian subcon-
tinent. Dust distribution which contributes significantly to the total
AOD values is underestimated in majority of the models. Also,
biases in winds at 850 hPa (which plays an important role in aerosol
transport) are significantly large in most of the CMIP5 models.
Therefore, we believe that the better representation of 850 hPa
wind and associated dust transport will definitely help in
improving the simulations of dust as well as total AOD distribution
over Indian subcontinent. In addition, it has been observed that the
aerosol concentration is found to be overestimated during
monsoon season in some models, while it is underestimated in
majority of the models (see Figure S3). Therefore, aerosol sources/
sink, seasonal variation and associated aerosol chemistry needs to
be improved in those models for better representation of the
aerosol distribution over Indian subcontinent. This study clearly
brings out the deficiencies in realistic representation of aerosols
over Indian subcontinent in current state of the art climate models
and therefore, can definitely be helpful for the modelling groups
across the world to improve the aerosol processes and its distri-
bution over Indian subcontinent in IPCC’s next assessment report
(AR6).
Acknowledgement
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) is supported
by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India, New Delhi. The
authors thank Prof. B.N. Goswami, Director, IITM and Dr. R.
Krishnan, Executive Director of CCCR for the encouragement and
support to carry out the present work. SDS is thankful to Mr.
Ramarao and Miss Priya for scientific discussions. The data from
MODIS is acknowledged with thanks. We acknowledge the World
Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled
Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. We thank the climate
modelling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and
making available their model output. We are also thankful to two
anonymous reviewers and the Editor Prof. C. K. Chan for providing
constructive comments and suggestions.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data related to this article can be found at http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.01.017
136 S.D. Sanap et al. / Atmospheric Environment 87 (2014) 123e137

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