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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181
www.keaipublishing.com/tcrr

Characteristics of fog in relation to tropical cyclone intensity: A case study

for IGI airport New Delhi
Rizwan Ahmed 1,2,*, Narendra G. Dhangar 3,4, Suneet Dwivedi 1, Ram Kumar Giri 2,
Prakash Pithani 3, Sachin D. Ghude 3
1
University of Allahabad-UP, India
2
India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences New Delhi, India
3
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan-Pune, India
4
Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India

Available online 16 September 2021

Abstract

Widespread catastrophic fog episodes in polluted northern India have been attributed to tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal &
Arabian Sea; however, limited studies have been conducted on the effect of tropical cyclone intensity (‘T’ Numbers) on different fog char-
acteristics in Indo Gangetic Basin, Northern India. In this study, different characteristics, including persistence, intensity, and areal extension,
were analyzed at the Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi during 1998e99, 2013e14, and 2016e17. A high-intensity tropical cyclone
(Severe to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm) has been found to significantly increase the persistence, intensity, and areal extension of fog by inducing
strong subsidence over the IGI Airport/Indo-Gangetic Basin. This knowledge is vital for improving the short-term forecasting of fog in the Indo-
Gangetic Basin of Northern India and will further support the Government agencies to take preventive safety measures and planning well in
advance time.
© 2021 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi
Communication Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Keywords: Fog; Tropical cyclone; Indo-gangetic basin (IGB); Fog intensity

1. Introduction
Occurrence of dense fog over the polluted/populated Indo-
Gangetic Basin (IGB) of north India is very common. Ac-
cording to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO),
fog is a suspension of water droplets or ice crystals in the
atmosphere and is characterized by near-surface horizontal
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: r.ahmed99@gmail.com (R. Ahmed).
Peer review under responsibility of Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China
Meteorological Administration.
Production and hosting by Elsevier on behalf of KeAi
visibility lower than 1 km. The economic loss due to disrup-
tion in normal traffic schedule and accidents can be compa-
rable to many natural disasters (Gultepe et al., 2007). In India,
the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) in Northern India experiences
frequent fog episodes in every winter (DeceJan) resulting
from suitable meteorological and environmental conditions
(Abhishek Chakraborty et al., 2016). For example, fog is the
predominant type in this region because of its formation
favored at low temperature, calm condition and high relative
humidity during the winter season (Syed et al., 2012).
What is even more concerning is the rapid increase in fog
frequencies from the last two decades over the IGB (Jenamani,
2007; Mohan and Payra, 2009; Sachin D Ghude et al., 2017).
This alarming rise of fog events during the winter season has
been attributed to the rise in pollution level and a gradual
increasing trend in relative humidity (Syed et al., 2012). It is

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.004
2225-6032/© 2021 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communi-
cation Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al.
also noted that larger aerosol number concentration during
foggy period relative to non-foggy conditions over Delhi
(Mohan and Payra., 2009) which reduces visibility <1000 m.
Since the meteorological conditions and aerosol concentration
vary spatially, detection of this spatial extent of fog is
important, particularly for the aviation sector. This issue can
only be addressed by satellite data (Badarinath et al., 2009; R.
Ahmed et al., 2015).
Few researches from outside India indicate that low visi-
bility incidents are closely linked to the movement of TC's
(Wu et al., 2005; Huang et al., 2005; Wang et al., 2009; Cao
et al., 2018; Hung & Lo, 2015). Cao et al., 2018 have
shown that tropical cyclones can generate favorable conditions
for regional haze-fog events in northern China by dynamic and
thermal processes, such as strengthening the downdraft and
increasing relative humidity and stability. Wang et al., 2009
indicate that the study of the 30 TC and PM10 air pollution
episodes in 2004 found that air pollution episodes seldom
impact TC's influence over Beijing. Peripheral subsidence of
TC produces adiabatic heat, which can dry the mid-low at-
mosphere and increase local static stability (Wu et al., 2005;
Feng et al., 2007). Downward motion due to heavy subsidence
reduces the boundary layer height (Zhang et al., 2010; Fan
et al., 2011) or can result in low-level inversion (Lee and
Savtchenko, 2006). Thus, TC activity contributes to the
accumulation of air pollutants and pollution events. Natalia
Fedorova et al., 2019 revealed that tropical cyclones in the
Atlantic Ocean induce sinking, which causes fog to form over
Northeastern Brazil. Singh & Kant., (2006), Bhushan et al.
2003, and De et al. 2001 have confirmed that fog persistence
over the IGB is caused by synoptic conditions that cause
subsidence from the upper layers of the atmosphere over the
fog region (IGB), increasing local stability (Wu et al 2005;
Feng et al 2007).
Singh & Kant., (2006) also showed that fog persistence in
December 1998e99 from 16 December to 04 January at the
backdrop of the very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) was due to
the supply of extreme TC moisture that had developed over the
Arabian Sea & advected sufficient moisture at the middle and
upper tropospheric levels of the Indo-Gangetic Basin. Subse-
quently, this moist air subsided to the lower troposphere,
giving favorable increase in areal extension, persistence and
fog intensity over IGI airport New Delhi.
Often both fog and Tropical Cyclones (TC’s) come together
during the pre-winter months (NovembereDecember), against
the climatology of fog onset over IGB. In combination (TC’s
over Bay of Bengal, BOB & fog over IGP), these weather
conditions cause significant economic losses for the entire
region. This immense fog layer seriously interferes with the
human activities of road, rail and air travel, as well as causing
the extensive delay/cancellation/diversion of flights due to low
visibility.
Limited studies have been done to determine the effect of
TC intensity on the various characteristics of fog episodes. The
present study aims to diagnose the effect of tropical cyclone
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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181
intensity on the various characteristics of fog, including
duration, intensity and aerial expansion, so that it can be
efficiently used by the aviation forecasters for fog forecasting
in India.
The data and methodology adopted is described in section
2. The results are presented and discussed in Section 3. Sec-
tion 4 summarizes the conclusions of the study.
2. Data and methodology
The study has been carried out based on the data collected
from the current weather registers at IGI New Delhi airport
for 1998e99, 2013e14 & 2016e17 to find out the lengths
and intensity of fog events. INSAT-3D & INSAT-3DR im-
ageries in the Visible channel (VIS), Short-wave Infra-red
(SWIR) Channel, DCD Image (Nighttime Fog) and Long
Infra-red (TIR) Channel were obtained IMD/MOSDAC to
study the areal extension of the fog over Northern India at an
interval of 15 min in a staggered mode. The tropical cyclones
(TC’s) formed during 2013e14 and 2016e17 (pre-winter
months) over the Bay of Bengal & the Arabian Sea has been
studied, with data from Regional Specialized Meteorological
Centre (RSMC), New Delhi (http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.
gov.in.). We have analyzed the fog and TC teleconnection
during 1998e1999 using data from the INSAT-1D satellite
and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre New
Delhi report 1999 (http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/
uploads/report/27/27_01a386_35_872370_1998.pdf). The
duration of the fog and visibility data was collected from the
current IGI airport weather registers.
In this study we analyzed the characteristics of fog over IGI
airport Delhi pertaining to persistence, intensity and areal
extension in relation to the tropical cyclone intensity by using
satellite data and ground based observed visibility. The
moisture influx by TCs was conductive to the occurrences of
fog episodes over the area (Cao et al., 2018 & Singh & Kant
et al., 2006). In order to understand the mechanism for the TC-
Fog linkage, the 0.25
 0.25
grid resolution in ERA5
reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used to derive the subsi-
dence for the respective fog-cyclone period to understand the
mechanism for the TC-fog linkage.
The analysis also explores the effect of the TC intensity on
the fog area. For this reason, we have estimated fog area (km2)
using a data visualization and analysis software called RAPID
(Realtime Analysis of Products and Information Dissemina-
tion) developed by the ISRO (https://www.isro.gov.in/rapid-
gateway-to-indian-weather-satellite-data) for the fog episodes
occurred under the influenced of TCs over BOB/Arabian Sea.
The relationship between the maximum area covered by the
fog (km2) with the maximum wind speed (knots) and the in-
tensity (T Number) of TC’s was investigated using the sta-
tistical analysis. The T number used in the present study was
calculated using Dvorak Technique (Dvorak 1975, 1984) from
INSAT-3D visible and IR images.
R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181

Table 1
Details of Tropical cyclones fog used in the study from the Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea during the winter season of 1998e99, 2013e2014 & 2016-17.
Year/Date Area of formation Date of Formation and Dissipation Category of Tropical Cyclone Maximum wind speed (kt)
& Name
1998e99 Arabian sea 13e17 December SCS, ARB98 55
2013e14 Bay of Bengal 06e13th December VSCS, MADI 70
2016e17 Bay of Bengal 29th Nov-02 Dec CS, NADA 40
2016e17 Bay of Bengal 06e13th December VSCS, VARDHA 70
Source: RSMC New Delhi.

To examined the influence of the TCs on the fog in-
tensity and the number of dense fog episodes. Again,
ground visibility and geostationary satellite data from
INSAT-3D & INSAT-3DR were used to identify the rela-
tionship between the TC intensity and the number of dense
fog episodes/fog intensity, i.e., whether an increase in the
TC intensity will further increase the fog intensity or have
no effect. Forecast of TCs over the Bay of Bengal /Arabian
Sea, including their intensity, maximum sustained wind
speed, location, etc., can be used to improve the opera-
tional forecast of fog events at IGI Airport and Indo
Gangetic Basin.
The different stages of TCs as used in India Meteorological
Department (IMD) are Depression ‘D’ with MSW of 17e27
knots, Deep Depression ‘DD’ with MSW of 28e33 knots,
Cyclonic Storms ‘CS’ with MSW of 34e47 knots, Severe
Cyclonic Storms ‘SCS’ with MSW of 48e63 knots, Very
Severe Cyclonic Storms ‘VSCS’ with MSW of 64e89 knots,

Fig. 1. INSAT-3D viewed fog over North India received in Visible Channel (VIS) at (a) 0330 UTC on November 29, 2016. (b) 0330 UTC on November 30, 2016
(c). 0300 UTC on December 1, 2016 and (d). 0300 UTC on December 2, 2016.

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R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181

Fig. 2. INSAT-3D Night viewed fog over North India received in Night-Time Fog Image (TIR-MIR) at (a) 2000 UTC on November 29, 2016. (b) 2100 UTC on
November 30, 2016 (c). 2100 UTC on December 1, 2016 and (d). 2100 UTC on December 2, 2016.

Table 2
Details of fog duration (in hours) at IGI, New Delhi during winter seasons under the influenced of TCs formed over the Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea.
Year Cyclone Name Category LPA of fog at IGI Airport Delhi IGI Observed fog duration(hr) during winter season Increased % in the fog duration
(1981e2014)
1998e99 ARB-98 SCS 600 773 28.83
2013e14 MADI VSCS 600 999 40
2016e17 NADA CS 600 1014 41.4
VARDHA VSCS

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms ‘ESCS’ with MSW of
90e119 knots and Super Cyclonic Storms ‘SuCS’ with MSW
of 120 knots and above (IMD 2013; R.Ahmed et al. 2021;
Mohapatra et al., 2021).
As a result, an attempt has been made in the present study
to improve the accuracy of the fog/visibility forecast devel-
oped under the influence of TCs and created over various
locations in northern India to reduce the economic losses in
the aviation field.
3. Results and discussion
Following the above methodology, effect of tropical cy-
clones on characteristics of fog during winter season of

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R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al.
1998e99, 2013e14 and 2016-17 has been analyzed. Visible
(VIS), Short-Wave Infra-Red (SWIR) & Infra-Red Imageries
from INSAT-3D were used for detecting the fog layer over
IGB and Tropical cyclones (TC) over the BOB and Arabian
Sea. List of tropical cyclones under the study are shown in
Table 1.
In the following paragraphs, mechanism for the Cyclone-
Fog linkage and different characteristics of catastrophic fog
under the influenced of the intense tropical cyclones (TCs)
over Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea have been described for the
winter period of 1998e99, 2013e14 & 2016e17.
3.1. Mechanism for the linkage of tropical Cyclone-Fog
An analysis of ERA5 reanalysis data was performed for the
better understanding of the possible mechanism & atmo-
spheric changes leading to the Indo Gangetic Basin fog under
the influence of Tropical cyclones.
The subsidence for the respective Fog-Tropical cyclone
period was calculated using the 0.25
 0.25
grid resolution
in ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The vertical
cross-section of longitude averaged wind vectors and relative
humidity from ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis data for the 29 and
30 November, 2016 at 00:00 UTC for the Tropical Cyclone
‘NADA’ formed over the Bay of Bengal in the early morning
hours (0300UTC) of November 30, 2016 is shown in Fig. S1
(a-b). It is observed that the strong upward motion due to
cyclonic activity over the Bay of Bengal between 5.0 N and
Fig. 3. Visibility at IGI airport during the life cycle of (a) TC, NADA (29th
Nov to Dec 02, 2016) and (b) TC VARDHA (06e13th Dec 2016).
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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181
10.0 N, and a strong descending motion observed over the
Indo Gangetic Basin between 26.0 N and 35.0 N. As a result,
such a strong downward motion could significantly favor
forming a stable atmosphere and reduce the height of the at-
mospheric boundary layer (Zang et al 2010; Fan et al 2011;
Cao et al. 2018; Natalia Fedorova et al., 2019). By virtue of
stable boundary layer conditions persisted for long period, it
may form low-level temperature inversion layer leading to fog
formation (Visibility zero) on November 30, 2016 followed by
NADA cyclone and on November 06, 2016 followed by
VARDHA cyclone as shown in Fig. 3 (a-b) (Chan & Chan
2000; Lee & Savtchenk 2006).
Singh & Kant., (2006); Bhushan et al 2003; De et al 2001
have also affirmed that fog persistence over the IGB is caused
by synoptic conditions that cause subsidence from the upper
layers of the atmosphere over the fog region (IGB), increasing
local stability (Wu et al 2005; Feng et al 2007).
As a result of downdraft winds in the lower troposphere,
light surface wind, low PBL height fog formed during the
morning hours of TCs. The INSAT-3D Visible Channel im-
ageries Fig. 1(a)-(d) and Nighttime fog imageries Fig. 2(a)-(d)
show that widespread fog began to form over the IGP as a
result of cyclonic storm ‘NADA.’ Fig. 3 also confirmed that
visibility at IGI Airport, New Delhi remains between zero and
200 m during the life cycle of TC, NADA (29th November to
December 02, 2016).
3.2. Effect of TCs intensity and location on persistence/
duration of fog
3.2.1. Fog episodes during winter season of 2016-17
From the INSAT-3D & 3DR imageries, it can be seen that
widespread fog started forming over the IGB, Northern India
in the first week of December 2016. Generally, during the last
week of December and January, the northern hills and plains
experience dense to very dense fog, but during December 2016
the fog has unusually arrived a few weeks earlier on the back
of the cyclonic activity over the BOB.
Table 2 shows that the high value of fog duration was
observed during the winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2016e17.
IGI Airport New Delhi observed total 1014 fog hours against
the long period average of approximately 600 h (1981e2014).
The duration of fog observed was 41.4% above the long period
average and caused significant air traffic disruptions. The
reason for drastic increase in fog persistence and early onset of
fog season over northern India during 2016e17 may be
attributed to the subsidence created over IGB by the Cyclonic
Storm ‘NADA’ and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘VARDHA’,
which formed over Bay of Bengal and neighborhood in the last
week of November and first week of the December having an
associated wind speed of 40 & 70 knots (RSMC, New Delhi,
2016). The TCs of CS to VSCS category has created sinking
over the IGB, which significantly enhanced the stable condi-
tions and triggers the fog formation (Fig. 4). This is in
agreement with the findings of Singh & Kant., (2006);
Bhushan et al 2003; De et al 2001.; Zang et al 2010; Fan et al
2011; Cao et al. 2018; Natalia Fedorova et al., 2019).
R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181

Table 3
Catastrophic fog series over Northern India.
Duration of fog (hours)
Date/Year I.G.I. New Delhi Lucknow airport Varanasi airport Amritsar airport
Dec 16, 1998 17.5 03 14 20
Dec 17, 1998 18 13.5 15.5 24
Dec 18, 1998 22.5 11 00 24.0
Dec 19, 1998 21 12.5 21.3 18.5
Dec 21, 1998 14.5 09.5 15.5 07.5
Dec 22, 1998 18.5 11.5 15.5 12
Dec 23, 1998 19 115 06 24
Dec 24, 1998 24 06.5 06.5 21.5
Dec 25, 1998 12.8 12 06 18
Dec 26, 1998 15.8 05.5 16 20.5
Dec 27, 1998 17.5 14.6 15 18
Dec 28, 1998 19.3 24 15.6 24
Dec 29, 1998 13.5 17.5 13 12
Dec 30, 1998 15.5 21 24 06.5
Dec 31, 1998 17.8 16.6 13 09.5
Jan 01, 1999 16.5 13 11 14
Jan 02, 1999 14 18.6 10.5 09
Jan 03, 1999 14 15.5 24 03.5
Jan 04, 1999 06.4 12 06.4 00
Jan 16, 1999 06.7 14.7 09.5 04.5
Jan 17, 1999 08.5 09 07 06
Jan 18, 1999 15.5 13.5 14.5 09.4
Jan 19, 1999 16.5 08 08.5 10.3
Jan 20, 1999 13.5 17.5 13.5 06.5
Jan 21, 1999 13 13.5 13.5 01.5
Source: Singh & Kant et al., (2006).

3.2.2. Fog episodes during winter season of 2013-14.
Table 2 show that the high values of fog duration was
observed during the winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 2013e14.
IGI Airport New Delhi experienced the total fog of duration
approximately 999 h against the long period average of
approximately 600 h during the period of 1981e2014. The
duration of fog shown in Table 2 is 40% above the long period
average and caused significant air traffic disruptions. A total of
140 flights were cancelled (in addition 143 were diverted and
363 delayed) from IGI airport New Delhi causing a loss of Rs
120 million to the aviation sector (Ghude et al.,2017). The
reason for drastic increase in fog duration and intensity at IGI
airport, New Delhi during 2013e14 may be credited to the
subsidence created by the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
(MADI) with maximum wind speed of 70 knots (RSMC, New
Delhi, 2013), which formed over Bay of Bengal (BOB) in the
first week of the December (06e13th Dec) [Fig. 4]. following
the findings of Singh & Kant., (2006); Bhushan et al 2003; De
et al 2001; Zang et al 2010; Fan et al 2011; Cao et al. 2018 &
Natalia Fedorova et al., 2019.
delays following the results of Zang et al 2010; Fan et al 2011;
Cao et al. 2018; Natalia Fedorova et al., 2019; Singh & Kant.,
(2006); Bhushan et al 2003 & De et al 2001). The subsidence
from the Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘ARB-98’ with a maximum
wind speed of 55 knots developed over the Bay of Bengal
(RSMC, New Delhi, 1998) during the second week of
December (13e17 Dec) can therefore be attributed to a dra-
matic rise in fog duration and intensity at IGB during
1998e99 [Table 3] following the finding of Zang et al 2010;
Fan et al 2011; Cao et al. 2018; Natalia Fedorova et al., 2019;
Singh & Kant., (2006); Bhushan et al 2003 & De et al 2001.
Singh & Kant et al., (2006) has shown that out of 15 winter
seasons from 1989 to 2004 the highest value of fog was

3.2.3. Fog episodes during winter season of 1998-99.

Table 2 indicates that the high value of fog duration was
observed during the winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb) of 1998e99.
IGI Airport New Delhi Airport recorded a total fog period of
773 h compared to the long-term average of 600 h
Fig. 4. Observed fog duration in hours at Amritsar, Delhi, Lucknow & Vara-
(1981e2014). The duration of fog shown in Table 2 is 28.83% nasi during the winter season of 2013e14 & 2016e17 under the influenced of
above the long-term average and caused major air traffic TCs ‘MADI’ & ‘NADA þ VARDHA’ formed in the Bay of Bengal.

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R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al.
Table 4
Maximum area (km2) covered by the fog over the IGB under the impact of TCs during the winter season of 1998e99, 2013e2014 & 2016e17.
Year/Date Date of Formation and Dissipation
1998e99 13e17 December
2013e14 06e13th December
2016e17 29th Nov-02 Dec
2016e17 06e13 December
observed during the winter season of 1998e99 over the north-
west India. Singh and Kant et al., 2006 has further shown
positive relative humidity anomalies of various magnitudes
were observed during December (1998e99) under the influ-
enced of TC that triggers fog over IGB/IGI. The most drastic
episodes happened between December 16, 1999 and January
04, 1999, when fog lasted for a long time (12e24 h), with the
relative humidity departure from normal was þ18 per cent and
þ19 per cent, respectively.
Compared to other TCs (MADI & ARB -98), the duration
of fog is highest (z41.4% more than LPA) in the case of TC,
VARDHA þ NADA. This can be due to the position & in-
tensity of TC following the observations of Cao et al. (2018).
Cao et al. (2018) demonstrated that the position and intensity
of TC play an important role in causing fog/haze over China.
They have demonstrated that the closer the distance between
TC and North China, the greater the direct impact on fog/haze
formation. Similarly, the location of tropical cyclones NADA
& VARDHA are near the southern tip of India in the BOB
which is closer to IGB/IGI airport, it may have impacted the
IGB to form the fog in accordance with findings of Cao et al.
2018.
All the four tropical cyclones discussed in the manuscript
are located near the eastern or western coasts of peninsular
India; they might have triggered/favored the fog formation
over the IGB due to the proximity of the tropical cyclones
formed in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea with IGB.
The above results complement the findings of Cao et al 2018.
They have demonstrated that subsidence caused by tropical
cyclones could not result in downdraft strengthening in the
west of northern China due to the large distance between the
tropical cyclones and northern China. However, a large num-
ber of cases like tropical cyclone formed in the Bay of Bengal
and the Arabian Sea and their relation with the fog formation
over the IGB need to be investigated carefully in near future.
From the above analysis, it can be inferred that extreme
TCs over the Bay of Bengal/Arab Sea enhance foggy condi-
tions by approximately 29e41% compared to the LPA, this
information is very useful and allows forecasters throughout
the tropical cyclone season to improve the ‘fog duration/
persistence’ forecast in northern India and thus minimise
economic losses in the aviation field.
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181
Category of Tropical Cyclone Area Covered by fog over IGB (km2)
& Name
SCS, ARB-98 529,000
VSCS, MADI 605,000
CS, NADA 385,000
VSCS, VARDHA 685,000
3.3. Effect of TCs intensity on the maximum area
covered by the fog
During the winter season 1998e99,2013-14 & 2016e17,
fog affected areas were found to cover roughly 385,000-
685000 km2 under the influence of severe TCs (ARB-98,
VARDHA & MADI), while the total area of IGB under fog
was 385,000 km2 due to the effect of the Cyclonic Storm
‘NADA’. Table 4 reveals that the high value of fog area (km2)
was observed during the 1998e99, 2013e14 and 2016e17
winter seasons under the influence of intense TCs and the fog
area at IGB is low in the case of a less intense cyclone
(NADA). It also shows that fog covers a greater area over IGB
under the influence of TC (VARDHA) while fog coverage is
small under the impact of Cyclonic Strom NADA as per the
findings of Cao et al. (2018). It has been observed that the
greater the intensity and wind spectrum of a tropical cyclone,
the more favorable the conditions for the occurrence of
episodes.
The INSAT-3D images in the Short-Infra Red Channel
(SWIR) from 05e12 December 2016 show that fog covers a
wide region in northern India during the daytime under the
influence of TC, VARDHA [shown in Fig. 5 (a-h)]. Geosta-
tionary satellite (INSAT-3D) images clearly show an increase
in the horizontal expansion of fog from North East Pakistan
to Bihar. Widespread fog over these areas can be easily
observed in the SWIR Channel Geostationary Satellite Im-
ages (INSAT-3D/3DR) due to smooth white texture and sharp
edges (Singh and Kant., et al, 2006). Fig. 6 (a-d) also shows
the wide coverage of the night fog over the entire IGB area in
the Dual Channel Difference (DCD) images of IR Channels
(TIR-MIR). The thick/dense fog areas during the night time
can be easily identified by the smooth texture and sharp
edges. [Fig. 1 (a-d)]. The maximum area covered by fog over
northern India under the impact of TC NADA was almost half
the area covered by fog in the case of TC VARDHA. Fig. 2
(a-d) reveals that fog covers a smaller region of IGB under
the influence of TC NADA compared to intense TC
‘VARDHA’.
To understand the relationship between the maximum area
(km2) covered by fog with maximum sustained wind speed
(MSW-knots) and intensity (T. No), the maximum area (km2)
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R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181

Fig. 5. INSAT-3D viewed fog over North India received in Short Wave Infra-Red Channel (SWIR) at (a) 0300 UTC on December 5, 2016. (b) 0300 UTC on
December 6, 2016 (c). 0300 UTC on December 07, 2016 and (d). 0300 UTC on December 08, 2016. (e). 0300 UTC on December 09, 2016 and (f). 0300 UTC on
December 10, 2016. (g). 0300 UTC on December 11, 2016 and (h). 0300 UTC on December 12, 2016.

covered by fog over northern India and adjacent areas under
the influence of TC, VARDHA was calculated using the
RAPID tool (http:/rapid.imd.gov.in/). Fig. 7 and 8 depict the
direct relationship of maximum area (km2) covered by fog
with intensity (T. No) and MWS (knots). It shows a strong
direct relationship with CCs of 0.956 and 0.908 respectively.
These CCs are statistically significant at a confidence level of
99%. This information is very vital and enables forecasters to
improve the maximum fog ‘area’ forecast in northern India
during the tropical cyclone phase in the Bay of Bengal and the
Arabian Sea, thus contributing to short-term forecasting in
India.
3.4. Impact of TCs intensity on the intensity (dense/very
dense) of fog events
It was important to note that the fog events induced by TCs
in the Northern Indian Ocean have typically increased the fog
intensity that causes a huge financial loss to the aviation sector
and endorses the earlier findings of Singh & Kant et al.,
(2006). It revealed that the IGI airport operated under CAT-
III (Visibility <200 m) service for 250 h throughout the
winter season of 1998e99 against the LPA of 30 h per season,
resulting in a significant number of diversions. The abrupt
increase in CAT-III intervals also indicated that the number

177
R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al.
Fig. 6. INSAT-3D Night viewed fog over North India received in Night-Time Fog Image (TIR-MIR) at (a) 2100 UTC on December 8, 2016. (b) 0000 UTC on
December 9, 2016 (c). 2100 UTC on December 10, 2016 and (d). 0000 UTC on December 11, 2016.
and duration of fog had increased under the influence of TCs.
Also, the total days with visibility <200 m rose to 37 during
DeceJan compared to the long-term average of 16 days.
Similarly, TC ‘MADI’ triggered fog over Indo Gangetic
Basin (IGB) and raised the total number of foggy days at IGI
airport New Delhi with visibility less than 200 m to 23 days
from the long-term average of 16 days (during DeceJan). It is
noted that during the presence of cyclone ‘NADA’ over the
Bay of Bengal, 64 h of fog were reported at IGI airport and
minimum visibility at IGI remains in the range of 0e200 m
during 29th Nov to December 02, 2016. Also, during 06e13th
December 2016, a total of 89 h of fog was observed at IGI
New Delhi Airport under the influence of TC, VARDHA and
minimum visibility remained in the range of 0e300 m
(Fig. 3).
The data analysis also reveals that foggy episodes caused
by severe TCs (VARDHA, MADI & ARB-98) give rise to
more episodes of thick/very dense fog and less intense TC
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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181
(NADA) give rise to less thick/dense fog episodes over IGB
following the findings of Cao et al. (2018), thick/dense fog
areas can be easily depicted in INSAT-3D/3DR images in
SWIR Channel as a very bright white patch with sharp edges
(Fig. 5). The variation in the brightness of the foggy patches is
largely due to the difference in fog thickness, as confirmed by
the current weather data of the various stations located in the
foggy areas. (Singh and Kant et al., 2006). This information is
very vital and will also beneficiary for forecasters to improve
the fog ‘intensity’ forecast in northern India during the trop-
ical cyclone phase in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
4. Conclusions
The relationship of tropical cyclone intensity to fog in
northern India is an important analysis to improve the
operational fog forecasting in India. Satellite data play a key
role in the predicting fog intensity during cyclones over the
R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al.
Fig. 7. (a) Maximum area covered by fog over the Northern India and intensity (‘T’ number) during TC, VARDHA over the Bay of Bengal during 07e13
December 2016. (b) The scattered plot between maximum fog area (km2) and intensity (‘T’ Number) of VARDHA. The ‘T’ number used here is determined using
INSAT-3D IR & Visible images.
Indian seas. Latest studies have indicated increasing trends
in intense cyclones over the Indian seas and dense fog epi-
sodes over northern India. These severe cyclones have a
direct effect on human, agricultural, hydrological and fog
intensity characteristics. The current study proposes that
operational fog forecasts be given while taking into account
the effect of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean to
improve operational fog forecasting skills. The major con-
clusions of the present study are as follows:
a) Intense TCs over the Bay of Bengal/Arabian sea have
directly increased the fog duration/persistence at IGI
Airport, New Delhi up to 29e41%.
b) The occurrences of fog over the large horizontal exten-
sion have also been boosted under the influence of the
very strong cyclonic storm. The greater the intensity of
tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea,
179
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 10 (2021) 170e181
the greater the foggy areas over IGB, which could reach
up to 685,000 km2. There is a direct relationship of
maximum fog area (km2) with the intensity (T. No) and
Maximum sustained wind (knots).
c) Foggy episodes caused by severe TCs (VARDHA, MADI
& ARB-98) give birth to the occurrence of more episodes
of dense fog and less intense TC (NADA) give rise to
occurrence of less dense fog episodes over IGI airport
New Delhi.
d) TCs formed over the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea,
which are closer to the IGB, have a more direct impact on
fog formation and may induce the early onset of fog over
IGB against climatology.
e) Forecast information (intensity, maximum sustained wind
speed, location, etc.) of TCs over the Bay of Bengal &
Arabian Sea may be used to improve the forecast of fog
over India & reduce the socio-economic losses.
R. Ahmed, N.G. Dhangar, S. Dwivedi et al.
Fig. 8. (a) Maximum area covered by fog over Northern India and maximum sustained wind (MSW in knots) during TC, VARDHA over the Bay of Bengal during
07e13 December 2016. (b) The scattered plot between maximum fog area (km2) and MSW (knots) of VARDHA.
Acknowledgements
The authors are also grateful to the Director General of
Meteorology, Satellite Meteorology Division, and National
Data Centre of India Meteorological Department for providing
the Visibility and INSAT data used in this study. We are also
grateful to the reviewers for their insightful comments and
suggestions to improve the manuscript.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.09.004
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