Predicting the Markets

Chapter 2 Charts:
Predicting the World
Yardeni Research, Inc.

July 21, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

Chief Investment Strategist

Mali Quintana
Senior Economist
info@yardenibook.com

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Predicting the World 1-28

July 21, 2022 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 1.
3.8 3.8

3.6 TOTAL IMPORTS OF 75 COUNTRIES 3.6

1/1929-3/1933
3.4 (billion dollars, monthly) 3.4

3.2 3.2

3.0 3.0

2.8 2.8

2.6 2.6

2.4 2.4

2.2 2.2
T
2.0 2.0

1.8 1.8

1.6 1.6

1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0
yardeni.com
.8 .8
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930.

Source: League of Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, February 1934, p. 51.

Figure 2.
15 15
US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 1929-1942
(2007=100, monthly)
13 13

11 11
T B M P

9 9

7 7

5 5

yardeni.com
3 3
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938.
P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 1941.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 3.
17 50
US PRODUCER PRICES:
1929-1942
(1982=100, monthly) Industrial Commodities
16
Grains
40
T B M
15
P

14 30

13

20

12

yardeni.com
11 10
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938.
P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 1941.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 4.
24 24
US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: 1921-1947
(1982-1984=100, monthly, nsa)
22 22

20 20
T B P

18 18

16 16

14 14

yardeni.com
12 12
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 1941.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 5.
60 60
US COMMERCIAL BANK DEPOSITS: 1920-1942
(billion dollars, annually)

50 50

40 40

30 30

yardeni.com
20 20
1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942

Source: Census Bureau.

Figure 6.
500 500
DEPOSITS OF SUSPENDED US COMMERCIAL BANKS: 1929-1933
(million dollars, monthly)

400 400

300 300
yardeni.com

200 200

100 100

0 0
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933

Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin, September 1937, Table 13, p. 909.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 7.
38 38
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: 1900-1947
36 36
(percent, annual)
34 34
32 32
30 Unemployment Rates 30
Nonfarm Employees*
28 28
Civilian Labor Force**
26 26
24 24
22 22
20 20
18 18
16 16
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
4 4
2 2
yardeni.com
0 0
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945

* Persons 14 years old and older.

** Persons 16 years old and older.
Source: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial times to 1970.

Figure 8.
500 500
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE
1929-1942
(daily)
400 400

T B M P
300 300

200 200

100 100

yardeni.com
0 0
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942

Note: T = Smoot-Hawley Tariff enacted June 17, 1930. B = Emergency Banking Act passed March 9, 1933. M = Mark-to-market suspended June 1938.
P = Pearl Harbor attacked December 7, 1941.
Source: Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 9.
2000 2000
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: ANNUALLY 1901-1950
(billion 1996 dollars)
1800 1800

1600 1600

1400 1400

1200 1200

1000 1000

800 800

600 600

400 400

yardeni.com
200 200
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Source: Historical Statistics of the United States.

Figure 10.
100 100
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT: QUARTERLY 1921-1939
(billion 1939 dollars, saar)

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

yardeni.com
40 40
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 11.
10 10
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1948-1960
(percent, sa)

8 8

6 6

4 4

yardeni.com
2 2
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 12.
58 58
TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLLS: 1948-1960
56
(millions, sa, ratio scale) 56

54 54

52 52

50 50

48 48

46 46

44 44

yardeni.com
42 42
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 13.
5604 5604
4804 4804
4004 S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX Jun 4004
3204 (ratio scale) 3204
2404 2404
1604 1604

804 804

yardeni.com
4 4
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

66

70

74

78

82

86

90

94

98

02

06

10

14

18

22

26

30
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 14.
122 122
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(2012=100, ratio scale)
Jun
102 102

82 82

62 62

42 42

22 22

yardeni.com
2 2
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
2

3
2

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 15.
700 700
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*
(1967=100, daily)

C
600 7/20 600

500 500

400 400

300 300

yardeni.com
200 200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 16.
175 175
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
(dollars per barrel, daily)
150 150

125 125

7/21
100 100

75 75

50 50

25 25

yardeni.com
0 0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.

Source: Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 17.
140 90000
MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEXES
(local currency) 80000
120

70000

100
60000

80 50000
C
7/21
40000
60

30000
40 China
20000
Emerging Markets
20
10000

yardeni.com
0 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 2001.

Source: MSCI.

Figure 18.
40 40
CHINA: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION*
(yearly percent change)
30 30

20 20
C

10 10

Jun

0 0

-10 -10

yardeni.com
-20 -20
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Value added basis.

Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 2001.
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 19.
1.5 1.5
CHINA: POPULATION
1.4 2021 1.4
(billions, ratio scale)
1.3 1.3

1.2 1.2

1.1 1.1

1.0 1.0
yardeni.com

.9 .9

.8 .8

.7 .7

.6 .6

.5 .5
49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People’s Republic of China.

Figure 20.
250 3.5
CHINA: POPULATION
(10-year change, millions)
3.0

200
10-year growth rate 2.5
at annualized rate

yardeni.com 2.0

150

1.5

1.0
100

2021 .5

2021

50 .0
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People’s Republic of China.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 21.
100 100
CHINA: RURAL & URBAN POPULATION*
(as a percent of total population)
90 90

80 80

70 Rural 70
Urban 2021
60 60

O C
50 50

40 40
2021
30 30

20 20

10 10

yardeni.com
0 0
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

* Estimates through 2015, projections from 2016 through 2095.

Note: O = China announced Open Door Policy during December 1978. C = China joined World Trade Organization during December 2001.
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Figure 22.
65 65
55 CHINA: URBAN POPULATION 55
45 (yearly change, millions) 45
35 35
25 25
15 2021 15
5 5
-5 -5
-15 -15
-25 -25
-35 -35
-45 -45
-55 -55
65 65
55 RURAL POPULATION 55
45 45
35 35
25 25
15 15
5 5
-5 -5
-15 2021 -15
-25 -25
-35 -35
-45 yardeni.com -45
-55 -55
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Source: United Nations.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 23.
18 18
EUROZONE: GOVERNMENT 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS
16 (percent) 16
NIRP QEE QT
D QE
14 14

12 12

10 10
Bond Yields
France
8 Germany 8
Italy
6 Spain 6

4 4

2 2
Jun

0 0

yardeni.com
-2 -2
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Note: D (7/26/12) = ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. NIRP (6/5/2014) = negative interest-rate policy.
QE (1/22/15) = quantitative easing. QEE (3/10/16) = expansion and extension of QE with corporate bond purchases started 6/1/16. QT (12/31/2018).
Source: Financial Times.

Figure 24.
1050 1050
BIC MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX
950 (in local currency, daily) 950

C
850 850

750 750

650 7/21 650

550 550

450 450

350 350

250 250

150 150

yardeni.com
50 50
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.

Source: MSCI.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 25.
140 140
135 WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) 135
130 (2010=100, swda*, ratio scale) Apr 130
125 125
120 120
115 115
110 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90
85 85

80 80

75 75

70 70

65 65

60 60

yardeni.com
55 55
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Seasonally and working day adjusted.

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

Figure 26.
180 180
170 WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (EX CONSTRUCTION) 170
160 (2010=100, swda*, ratio scale) 160
150 Apr 150
140 140
130 130
120 120
110 110
100 100
90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 Industrial Production 50
Advanced Economies
Emerging Economies
40 40

yardeni.com
30 30
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Seasonally and working day adjusted.

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 27.
155 155
OECD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
145 145
(2010=100, sa, ratio scale)
Apr
135 135
125 125

115 115

105 105

95 95

85 85

75 75

65 65

55 55

yardeni.com
45 45
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: OECD.

Figure 28.
150 150
140 WORLD EXPORTS: VOLUME 140
130
(2010=100, sa, ratio scale) Apr 130
120 120
110 110
100 100

90 90

80 80

70 70

60 60

50 50

40 40

yardeni.com
30 30
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 29.
23 23
WORLD EXPORTS: VALUE
(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa, ratio scale)
20 Jul 20

17 17

14 14

11 11

8 8

yardeni.com
5 5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: IMF.

Figure 30.
7.0 May 7.0
G7 EXPORTS
6.5 (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale) 6.5

6.0 6.0

5.5 5.5

5.0 5.0

4.5 4.5

4.0 4.0

3.5 3.5

3.0 3.0

yardeni.com
2.5 2.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 31.
700 21
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS
Jul
650 19
12/7

600 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 17

(1967=100)
550
Value of World Exports (IMF) 15
(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa)
500
13
450
11
400

9
350

7
300

250 5

yardeni.com
200 3
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.

Figure 32.
75 75
WORLD EXPORTS (VALUE): G7 vs REST OF WORLD
(percent of total world exports using 12-month averages)
70 Jul 70

65 65
Rest of World
60 G7 60

55 55

50 50

45 45

40 40

35 35

30 Jul 30

yardeni.com
25 25
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Source: IMF and Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 33.
60 60
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: GLOBAL
(sa)
55 55
Jun

50 50

45 45

40 40

35 35

Global PMIs
30 Composite 30
Manufacturing
Non-Manufacturing
25 25

yardeni.com
20 20
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.

Figure 34.
70 70
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: ADVANCED ECONOMIES
65 65

60 60

55 55
Jun
50 50

Advanced Economies PMIs

45 45
Composite
Manufacturing
40 Non-Manufacturing 40

35 35

30 30

25 25

20 20

yardeni.com
15 15
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 35.
58 58
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXES: EMERGING ECONOMIES
56 56
Jun
54 54

52 52

50 50

48 48

46 46

44 44

42 42

40 40

38 Emerging Economies 38
Composite Index
36 Manufacturing 36

34 Non-Manufacturing 34

32 32
yardeni.com
30 30
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Markit and Haver Analytics.

Figure 36.
103 103
OECD: LEADING INDICATORS*
102 102

101 101

100 100
Jun
99 99

98 98

97 97

96 96

95 95

94 94

93 93

92 92

91 91
yardeni.com
90 90
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* A reading above 100 that is rising predicts expansion, above 100 and falling a downturn, below 100 and falling a slowdown, and below 100 and rising
a recovery.
Source: Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 37.
105 105
OECD: LEADING INDICATORS*

103 103

101 101

Jun
99 99

97 97

95 95
US
Europe
93 Japan 93

91 91

89 89

yardeni.com
87 87
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* A reading above 100 that is rising predicts expansion, above 100 and falling a downturn, below 100 and falling a slowdown, and below 100 and rising
a recovery.
Source: OECD and Haver Analytics.

Figure 38.
110 110
BRICs: LEADING INDICATORS*
105 105

100 100
Jun
95 95

90 90

85 85

80 80

75 75
Brazil
China
70 70
India
Russia
65 65

60 60

55 55
yardeni.com
50 50
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* A reading above 100 that is rising predicts expansion, above 100 and falling a downturn, below 100 and falling a slowdown, and below 100 and rising
a recovery.
Source: OECD and Haver Analytics.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 39.
160 16
EUROZONE: ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR* & REAL GDP
14
150
12
140 10

130 8
6
Q1
120
4

110 2
Jun 0
100
-2
90 -4
Real GDP -6
80 (yearly percent change)
-8
70 -10
Economic Sentiment Indicator*
(long-term average=100, sa) -12
60
-14
50
-16
yardeni.com
40 -18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* The overall economic sentiment indicator (ESI) is derived from the industrial (weight 40%), service (30%), consumer (20%), construction (5%), and
retail trade (5%) confidence indicators.
Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities, European Commission, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 40.
120 120
EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(2015=100, sa)
115 115

110 110
Total Excluding
105 Construction May 105
Manufacturing
100 100

95 95

90 90

85 85

80 80

75 75

70 70

65 65
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Statistical Office of European Communities.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 41.
145 145
EURO ZONE RETAIL SALES VOLUMES
140 EXCLUDING AUTOS & MOTOR CYCLES 140
135 (2015=100) 135
130 Eurozone 130
125 Germany 125
France
120 120
Italy
115 Spain May 115
110 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90
85 85
80 80
75 75
70 70
yardeni.com
65 65
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities.

Figure 42.
115 115
GERMANY: IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX
(2015=100, sa)
110 110

105 105

Jun
100 100

95 95

90 90

85 85

80 80

75 Total 75
Current Situation Index
70
Expectations Index 70

65 65

yardeni.com
60 60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Ifo.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 43.
120 120
JAPAN: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(2010=100)
115 115

110 110

105 105

100 100

95 95

90 90

Jul
85 85

80 80

75 75

yardeni.com
70 70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry.

Figure 44.
850 850
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
800 (billions US dollars, saar) 800
750 750
700 Jun 700
650 650
600 600
South Korea
550 Taiwan 550
500 500
Jun
450 450
400 400
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
yardeni.com
50 50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 22 / July 21, 2022 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 45.
29 29
CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE* Jun
(trillion yuan, saar, ratio scale)
24 24

19 19

14 14

9
Total 9
Exports
Imports

yardeni.com
4 4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Excluding Hong Kong.

Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics.

Figure 46.
4.4 50000
CHINA: RAILWAYS FREIGHT TRAFFIC & IMPORTS PLUS EXPORTS
4.2
Jun
4.0

3.8 40000

3.6

3.4

3.2 30000

3.0

2.8

2.6 20000

2.4
Railways Freight Traffic
2.2 (100 million tons, nsa)

2.0 Imports Plus Exports 10000

(billion yuan, saar)
1.8

1.6
yardeni.com
1.4 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs, and Haver Analytics.

Page 23 / July 21, 2022 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 47.
20 20
US EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN NOMINAL GDP
(as a percent of nominal GDP)

Q1
15 15

10 10

5 5
Goods & Services
Imports
Exports

yardeni.com
0 0
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 48.
30 30
WORLD EXPORTS VOLUME & US REAL MERCHANDISE EXPORTS + IMPORTS
(yearly percent change)

20 20

10 10
May

0 0

-10 -10

Growth Rates (y/y)

-20
World Exports: Volume -20
US Real Exports + Imports

yardeni.com
-30 -30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 24 / July 21, 2022 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 49.
2.6 2.6
JAPAN: LIVE BIRTHS & DEATHS
(12-month sum, millions)
2.4 2.4

2.2 2.2

2.0 2.0

1.8 1.8

1.6 Live Births 1.6

Deaths
1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0

.8 .8
Jan
.6 .6

yardeni.com
.4 .4
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.

Figure 50.
15 15
US: REAL GDP
(yearly percent change)
10 10

5 5
Q1

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

yardeni.com
-15 -15
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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 Predicting the World
Figure 51.
16 16
EUROZONE: PRIVATE SECTOR* LOANS OUTSTANDING AT MFIs** yardeni.com
(trillion euros, sa)
14 14
Total Private Sector
Households (including non-profit institutions)
May
Nonfinancial Corporations
12 12
Others***

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

* Total Private Sector includes Households (including non-profit institutions), Nonfinancial corporations, Other financial intermediaries, insurance
corporations, and pension funds.
** Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) exclude Euro System of Central Banks (ESCB) and Money Market Funds (MMFs).
*** Others include other financial intermediaries, insurance corporations, and pension funds.
Source: Haver Analytics and ECB.
Figure 52.
120 120
EUROZONE: INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
EXCLUDING CONSTRUCTION
110 110

May
100 100

90 90

80 80

70 70
Eurozone
Germany
60 60
France
Italy
50
Spain 50

yardeni.com
40 40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Haver Analytics.

Page 26 / July 21, 2022 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 53.
55 55
50 CHINA: REAL GDP 50
45 45
40 40
35 35
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 Q2 0
-5 -5
-10 -10
-15 -15
-20 yearly percent change -20
-25 quarterly percent change, saar -25
-30 -30
-35 -35
-40 -40
-45 -45
-50 -50
-55 -55
yardeni.com
-60 -60
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.

Figure 54.
35 250
CHINA: BANK LOANS
(trillions, nsa)
Jun
30
200
US dollars
25
Yuan
150
20

15
100

10

50
5

yardeni.com
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: People’s Bank of China.

Page 27 / July 21, 2022 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 Predicting the World
Figure 55.
18 18
CHINA: PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
16 (yearly percent change) 16

14 14

12 12

10 10

8 8

6 Jun 6

4 4

2 2

0 0

-2 -2

-4 -4

-6 -6

-8 -8
yardeni.com
-10 -10
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

Figure 56.
18 18
GLOBAL POPULATION: YOUNGER CHILDREN & OLDER ADULTS
(as a percent of total population)
16 16

14 14

Age
12 Under 5 12
65 & Older

10 10

8 8

6 6

yardeni.com
4 4
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

* Estimates through 2019, then projections through 2050.

Source: United Nations.

Page 28 / July 21, 2022 / Chapter 2 Charts: Predicting the World Yardeni Research, Inc.
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