Money & Credit:

US Short-Term
Business Credit
Yardeni Research, Inc.

October 7, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Commercial & Industrial Loans 1-4

October 7, 2022 / US Short-Term Business Credit Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Commercial & Industrial Loans
Figure 1.
3700 3700
3300 3300
2900 C&I LOANS AT ALL BANKS PLUS NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER 9/28 2900
2500
(billion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 2500
2100 2100
1700 1700

1300 1300

900 900

500 500

yardeni.com
100 100
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 2.
4.6 4.6
4.1 4.1
3.6 COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS 3.6
3.1 (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 3.1
2.6 6/29 2.6
2.1 2.1

1.6 1.6

1.1 1.1

.6 .6

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.1 .1
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

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 Commercial & Industrial Loans
Figure 3.
405 405
NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER
(billion dollars, nsa)

325 325

10/5
245 245
yardeni.com

165 165

85 85

5 5
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Figure 4.
45 45

40
COMMERCIAL BANKS: C&I LOANS Latest (14.6) 40
(yearly percent change)
35 35

30 30

25 25

20 20

15 9/28 15

10 10

5 5

0 0

-5 -5

-10 -10

-15 -15

-20 -20
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-25 -25
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Page 2 / October 7, 2022 / US Short-Term Business Credit Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Commercial & Industrial Loans
Figure 5.
750 750
700 C&I LOANS AT ALL BANKS PLUS NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER 700
650 (yearly change, billion dollars) 650
600 600
550 550
500 500
450 450
400 9/28 400
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
-50 -50
-100 -100
-150 -150
-200 -200
-250 -250
-300 -300
-350 -350
-400 -400
-450 -450
-500 -500
-550 yardeni.com -550
-600 -600
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 6.
3600 3600
3200 SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES 3200
(billion dollars, ratio scale) 9/28
2800 2800

2400 Aug 2400

2000 2000
C&I Loans Plus
Nonfinancial
1600 Commercial Paper 1600
(nsa)

1200 1200

800 800

Manufacturing & Trade

Inventories
(sa)

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400 400
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Page 3 / October 7, 2022 / US Short-Term Business Credit Yardeni Research, Inc.

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 Commercial & Industrial Loans
Figure 7.
2.9 2.9
2.5 NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS: LOANS Q2 2.5
2.1 (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) 2.1
1.7 1.7
Q2
1.3 1.3

.9 .9

.5 .5

Business Loans
Depository Institution Loans (1.4)
Other Loans (2.5)

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.1 .1
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts.

Figure 8.
8 8
LOAN DELINQUENCY RATE: COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS
(percent, sa)

6 6

yardeni.com

4 4

2 2

Q2

0 0
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.

Page 4 / October 7, 2022 / US Short-Term Business Credit Yardeni Research, Inc.

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