Perfringens Predictor

A FREE software tool to predict the

post-inactivation re-growth of Clostridium perfringens

József Baranyi
Institute of Food Research, Norwich, UK

Presented to officers of the

Food Standards Agency, UK
February, 2009

www.combase.cc
 Static and dynamic temperature scenario
10
10 63
conc. (log10 cfu/ml)

8 62
8
6 61

cell conc. (log cells/ml)

6
4 60

temperature (C)
2 59
4
y1 0 58
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12
2 y2 -2 57

-4 56
0
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 -6 55
time (h) time (h)

At constant temperature, the inactivation rate is known. If the temperature increases

gradually to its final value, a “shoulder” can be observed. This is not THAT
“adjustment” process, which can be observed at static environment, after inoculation,
but caused by the gradual change in the environment during inactivation
 C. perfringens in meat

- Though in low concentrations, nonetheless

commonly found in many foods, especially in
meat and poultry.

- Heat resistant strains are not rare

- Grows rapidly between 35°C and 50°C

 Typical heating / cooling temperature
profile
C.perfringens re-growth ?
7 90

80
6
Inactivation temperatures 70

5 60

Temperature (C)
Log CFU/g

50
4
40
Growth temperatures
3 30

C.perfringens re-growth 20
2
10
Temperature profile
1 0
0 5 10 15 20
time (h)
ComBase predictions for the growth of
C.perfringens at constant temperatures
log cfu/g 9

6 40 oC
35 oC

3 30 oC

0
0 4 8 12
time (h)
Dynamic version of ComBase
Predictor is not applicable
 Is the cooling profile fast enough?
7 90

80
6
70

5 60

Temperature (C)
Log CFU/g

50
4 Temperature profile
40

3 30

20
2
10

1 0
0 5 10 15 20
0 5
time (h)
10 15
time (h)
Perfringens Predictor considers
only the cooling profile
 Prediction and observation of re-
growth of C. perfringens in turkey
pH =6.1, NaCl=1.5% pH =6.2, NaCl=3%
9 80 9 80

C.perfringens re-growth 70 70

60 60

T e m p e ra tu re (°C )
T e m p e ra tu re (°C )
6 6
50 C.perfringens re-growth 50
lo g 1 0 cfu /g

lo g c fu /g
40 40

30 30
3 3
Temperature profile 20 20
Temperature profile
10 10

0 0 0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Time (h) Time (h)

At 1.5% NaCl, the cooling profile is too slow. At 3% NaCl it is acceptable.

Perfringens Predictor output
Criteria: Less than 1 log unit increase is allowed

7 90
90

80
80
6
70
70

(C)
Temperature (C)
5 unacceptable. 60
60
Log CFU/g

Temperature
50
50
4
40
40

3
acceptable. 30
30
20
20
2
10
10

1 00
0 2 4 6 8 10
10 12
12 14
14 16
16
Time
Time (h)
(h)
Another dynamic application: Survival of Salmonella
during dynamically decreasing water activity
Typical water activity profile during storage
after processing
Survival of inoculated salmonella during dynamically
decreasing water activity
(Sim. profile1) Log counts (Aw. profile1)

7 0.965

0.96
6
0.955
5
Predicted conc. (log cells/g)

0.95

4
0.945

Aw
3 0.94

0.935
2
0.93
1
0.925

0
0.92
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
-1 0.915
tim e (h)
 Acknowledgement

Food Standards Agency

ComBase Partners
IFR Computational Microbiology Research Group