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Life assessment of steam reformer catalyst tubes

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 Paper no. 5F

Life assessment of steam reformer catalyst tubes

- diameter decrease is not negative creep ! -

by :

R. Gommans G. Kamphuis J. M. Brear

JA. Schelling P. Bakker J. M. Church

DSM Stamicarbon Methanor ERA Technology

Geleen, NL Delfzijl, NL Leatherhead, GB

prepared for presentation at

the 46th Annual Safety in Ammonia Plants and Related Facilities Symposium

in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on September 17-20, 2001

copyright  J.A.Schelling, DSM Stamicarbon

UNPUBLISHED

AIChE shall not be responsible for statements or opinions contained in papers or printed in its publications

-1-
 Life assessment of steam reformer catalyst tubes
- diameter decrease is not negative creep ! -

ABSTRACT

Steam reformers provide a primary source for hydrogen in syngas production. The
highly endothermic reaction takes place in vertical, catalyst-filled tubes that are
directly fired. Because of the severity of the operating conditions, these tubes are
fabricated from centrifugally cast, thick section material, typically made of HK40,
HP-Nb or HP-MA.

The dominant loading on these catalyst tubes is the through-wall thermal stress and
life consumption is by cyclic creep relaxation, on a time-scale controlled by the
operational pattern of the unit. Strain and damage accumulate through life and may
respectively be monitored by diametral measurements and non-destructive
techniques based on eddy current or ultra-sonic methods.

Detailed investigation shows that the evolution of diametral strain is complex. Early
in life, the outside diameter may decrease whilst the internal diameter increases.
Later, both internal and external diameters increase with time.
A rigorous understanding of this behaviour is necessary in order to reconcile tube
measurements and to allow accurate predictive modelling of catalyst tube life.

This paper elaborates the theoretical basis for this behaviour and provides
validation from a reformer serving a methanol plant. The implications for analytical
life prediction and practical tube monitoring are discussed.

-2-
1. Introduction

Steam reformer units are critical to many processes in refining and chemical plants. They
are used in the production of hydrogen for oil refining, ammonia production and direct iron
reduction, hydrogen and carbon monoxide for nickel reduction and purification, and syngas
as a basis for producing methanol, acetic acid and various other chemicals. In this specific
case the issue is production of methanol.

The life management of reformer units is ordinarily dominated by the service capability of
the radiant catalyst tubes. Because of the severity of the operating conditions, these tubes are
fabricated from centrifugally cast, thick section material, typically to the generic
specifications HK40, HP-Nb and HP-micro or their proprietary derivatives.

Tube life is primarily limited by creep, driven by a combination of internal pressure

and through-wall thermal stresses that are generated during start-up cycles and operating
transients. Creep life exhaustion is evidenced by progressive grain boundary cavitation
which, due to the significant influence of thermal stresses generated during operating
transients, initiates within the tube wall towards the bore.

The design of tubular components is ordinarily based on pressure stresses, outside wall
temperatures and factored lower-bound materials rupture data. However, this does not
provide a realistic basis for remaining life assessment of steam reformer catalyst tubes.
Indeed, life prediction by an inverse design procedure using actual materials properties and
service conditions can result in highly optimistic estimates of future operational capability
which are not borne out by service experience. This is because the influence of start/stop-
cycles (which have a significant and negative influence on tube life) is not taken into
account in this procedure. In the past some attempts were made to incorporate the influence
of start/stop-cycles [ref.1,2], but they were not completely successful. ERA Technology has
developed a software program, called REFORM, that takes both loading mechanisms
(steady-state creep and thermal cycling) into account. The REFORM analysis is performed
probabilistically. Process conditions and metal skin temperatures vary with both space and
time throughout a reformer unit. A probabilistic approach allows variations in process
conditions and material properties to be accounted for. Further it allows the interactive
effects of forward creep and stress redistribution to be reconciled for any position along a
selected reformer tube. Further information about the scientific background of REFORM
can be found in: [ref.3,4,5].

The REFORM analysis was applied to the methanol plant of Methanor-1 in Delfzijl (NL).
As a result of the analysis it appeared that a decrease in external diameter had ocurred, a
prediction that was later confirmed by diameter measurements. This paper describes the
process of the REFORM analysis for the Methanor-1 reformer tubes and the (scientific)
background of the diameter decrease, which is not to be seen as negative creep!

2. Specific features of the REFORM model

The model has many specific features relating to the treatment of operational, mechanical
and materials behaviour in an overall probabilistic framework. These features are briefly
described here, but more extensive background can be found elsewhere [ref.3,4,5].

-3-
Materials creep behaviour. The creep rupture life is generally given as a parametric curve
(such as the Larson-Miller curve). However, this only describes the moment of failure, and
not the complete strain-time behaviour that is necessary to predict ductility exhaustion.
Also, creep damage (cavitation) is not described by such a parametric curve. The simplest
established materials model that simultaneously predicts strain and damage with time is the
continuum damage mechanics model developed by Kachanov and Rabotnov [ref.6].
At higher stresses, flow processes dominate and the stress dependencies of creep rate
and rupture life are identical. At lower stresses, damage processes (such as cavitation)
predominate, leading to premature rupture, lower ductility and a drop in the stress
dependency of rupture life compared with that for creep rate. Thus, it reflects the high stress
start-up situation experienced by reformer catalyst tubes as well as the lower stress steady-
state regime.

Figure 1 shows a data set for an HP type alloy to which are fitted several typical materials
data descriptors: a power law, an exponential law, a Larson-Miller parameter and the
Kachanov model [ref.4]. Examination of these four diagrams shows that it is only the
Kachanov model that is capable of adequately describing both the high stress and the
low stress behaviour. The exponential and power law fits are not particularly good at
the extremes of the stress range and the parametric fit cannot be reliably extrapolated.

Figure 1 Comparison of stress-rupture descriptors for HP-Nb type alloy

-4-
Creep life consumption. A strain based life fraction rule is employed, since a critical
program of creep and stress relaxation testing has demonstrated that this is more realistic,
over the stress ranges involved, than a time based approach. A concentric ring model allows
the time and position at which local failure first occurs, corresponding to crack initiation,
to be recorded. Ordinarily this is at, or close to, the inner tube surface, thus matching
service experience. However this does not represent the end of life, since additional service
during the crack propagation stage is possible. Indeed a significant proportion of life can be
spent with the tube in this condition. The mechanistic creep model employed in the life
consumption algorithm can be extended to predict through-wall crack growth, using a
damage front propagation method. Examination of samples taken from service, see figure 2,
shows that multiple, parallel cracks form, all of similar length.

Figure 2

Cross-section
showing
damage front
propagation

It is thus appropriate that a damage front propagation model is used rather than creep
fracture mechanics [ref.6,7]. This method is implemented by recalculating the wall loads as
each successive defined ring fails, whilst maintaining the original temperature distribution.
The failure times for each ring are noted, enabling the crack growth to be followed through
to final failure. It is also possible to calculate, at each time, the corresponding diametral
strains and to record the levels of damage predicted in each uncracked ring, thus enabling
a complete prediction of crack, damage and strain behaviour.

-5-
Modelling of process transients. A summary of shut-down/start-up cycles and significant
process upsets is also needed. It is normally sufficient to classify transients into two groups.
Minor transients, caused by smaller process upsets or irregularities in firing, primarily affect
the through-wall temperature gradient rather than the absolute temperature level.
Major transients also affect the absolute temperature of the tube and can lead to the
re-imposition of elastic stress levels comparable to those generated at the initial start-up.
For conservatism, therefore, major transients are assigned the same severity level as
complete shut-down/start-up cycles.

Modelling of thermal stress. During start-up, shutdown and operational transients, through-
wall thermal stresses are generated. Once the transient has passed, these stresses relax by
creep towards a steady-state equilibrium. It is important to model this correctly as the high
stresses involved lead to enhanced life consumption during this period of stress relaxation
and redistribution. An analytical thermal stress analysis routine is used, which has been
confirmed by finite-element analysis methods [ref.5].

Probabilistic procedure. In order to obtain a realistic life prediction for a particular unit,
a probabilistic treatment is employed. Statistical distributions of all input variables are
determined and sampled using a Monte-Carlo method. Typically, sample sizes of order
10,000 are used, depending on the operator's required critical probability level and the
relative ranges of the input distributions. The routines employed can provide an estimate
of the confidence of the prediction. Sensitivity analyses may also be performed to
investigate the effects of any particularly critical or uncertain input parameter.
For each sample set, the crack initiation time, crack growth behaviour and final failure time
(tube leakage) are recorded, together with times to pre-selected diametral strain and damage
levels. Cumulative probability curves for times to crack initiation, failure and each chosen
strain or damage level are produced. Other statistical functions can be derived from these
as required.

Simulation. A great advantage of a predictive model is that consideration can be given to

hypothetical changes in future operation. Frequently it is necessary to investigate the effect
of an improvement in catalyst efficiency, feedstock or firing pattern on tube life, or to
evaluate the cost benefit of different choices of replacement tube material or geometry.
Provided a reasonable estimate of the potential new parameters can be made, then the model
can be run several times using the actual history with each candidate future scenario. From
an operational point of view, it is often instructive to consider the sensitivity of tube life to
the severity or frequency of operational transients. The greatest advantage of the REFORM
model is that it allows simulation of changes in operation before the change is actually
effected in the plant. This can save much tube life and thus availability of the furnace.
Also, furnace capacity may increase without significant loss of reformer tube life.

-6-
3. The Methanor-1 reformer

The reformer studied here serves a methanol plant. It is of Foster-Wheeler design, terrace
fired with 576 tubes in four cells. The majority of the catalyst tubes are of HK40 material,
though a few replacements in HP-Nb were made following an operational incident. For
assessment purposes, the reformer has been considered to comprise four sections (in this
case, the four cells). These were analysed separately. In this paper, for simplicity, only the
North-West cell, containing HK40 tubes, is described.

4. Input for the REFORM model

The REFORM model needs design and operating input data; these are listed in table 1
for the subject unit. The operating data need to be available as a function of time.
From experience it is known that some parameters have a large influence on the calculated
life. Specially tube skin temperatures and initial dimensions (diameter and wall thickness)
have a large influence.

Table 1a: Input Parameters - Constant Parameters common for all parts of the unit

Fired Tube Length, [m] 11.35

Number of Tubes, [-] 576
Tube Spacing (No. Diameters) 2.1
Heat Duty Absorbed, [kW] 2.0E+08
Current Operational Hrs (HK40 Tubes) 205375

Table 1b: Input Distributions - Parameters common for all cells

Mean St Dev Min Max

Dwell Time, [Hrs] 2265.0 2394.0 72.0 12000.0
Process Inlet Temperature, [°C] 519.2 10.7
External Diameter, [m] 0.1087 0.0003 0.1080 0.1099
Internal Diameter, [m] 0.0840 0.0000 0.0840 0.0840

Table 1c: Input Distributions - Parameters specific to each cell (showing NW-cell only)

Section of unit Mean St Dev Min Max

Inlet Pressure, [MPa] NW 1.87 0.07 1.55 2.00
Outlet Pressure, [MPa] NW 1.61 0.04 1.45 1.69
Process Inlet Temperature, [°C] NW 494.7 14.0 415.9 542.3
Process Outlet Temperature, [°C] NW 825.7 8.4 780.7 843.5
Maximum Metal Skin Temperature, [°C] NW 950.1 13.5 910.0 986.0

-7-
Tube skin temperatures were recorded only as maximum temperature readings during each
shift. At first, the average temperatures were not recorded. Since the average temperature
would be much lower than the maximum temperatures (see figure 3), it was decided that the
average temperatures were to be recorded during a limited period of time, to improve the
realism of the prediction. Using these average temperatures extended the expected life of the
reformer tubes compared to that obtained using only the maximum temperatures.
Remark : in figure 3, the Gauss-curve for the average skin temperature contains only a
limited amount of data (sampling during a few months). The Gauss-curve for the maximum
skin temperature contains many data (sampling during years), and is therefore higher.

0.05
Figure 3
Maximum Metal Skin Temperature, [°C]

0.04
Average Metal Skin Temperature, [°C]
Two Gauss curves
with average and
0.03 maximum TMT's
Frequency

0.02

0.01

0.00
800 850 900 950 1000
Temperature, °C

The initial outer diameter was only available from the drawings with a relatively broad
scatter (-0, +1.5mm). To refine this estimate, the outer diameters were measured at the cold
ends during a turnaround and these measurements were taken as equivalent to the initial
value. Because of the improved knowledge of the initial diameters, the accuracy of the
predicted life improved.

In general, if operating data are available from digital control systems or advanced data
loggers, this greatly improves the speed at which the REFORM-analysis can be performed.

5. Results of the REFORM-analysis for Methanor-1

The results can be presented as CP-curves (Cumulative Probability curves) for time-to-
crack initiation, time-to-failure, time to reach a certain strain level, and time to reach a
certain damage level.

-8-
Such CP-curves are presented for the NW-cell of the Methanor-1 reformer (see figure 4).
The operating time at the moment of assessment was 215,000 hours. This time is indicated
on the figure, together with a series of small lines which each represent one additional year
of operation. In figure 4a (crack initiation and failure), it can be observed that crack
initiation was predicted to have occurred already, but that tube failure was not to be
expected within a short period of time. Some results are :

- the first tube is expected to fail after another 50,000 hours (~6 years) ;
- 10% of the tubes are expected to fail after another 200,000 hours (~25 years) ; and
- 50% of the tubes are expected to fail after another 400,000 hours (~50 years).

From these results it is clear that –with similar future operating conditions– replacement of
large amounts of reformer tubes is not to be expected for a long time. Furthermore, with
proper inspection techniques the damaged reformer tubes can be replaced on a planned
schedule [ref. 8].

Figure 4 Cumulative probability curves for Methanor NW-cell

a. time to crack initiation and failure

100.00%

10.00%
Cumulative Probability

1.00%
Initiation Time

95% Confidence Interval

Failure Time
0.10%
95% Confidence Interval

Current Operational Hours

Subsequent Years Of Operation

0.01%
10000 100000 1000000
Total Service Time (Hours)

The predicted damage levels (represented by failure of the consecutive rings in the model)
are given in figure 4b. When a damage level of 30-50% is reached, non-destructive
techniques such as US-attenuation will start to register damage. In this case the model
predicted that ~25% of the tubes already had a damage level of 50%.

Furthermore, the predicted strain levels diagram (Fig 4c) is of interest to observe. The model
predicts negative strains, meaning a decreasing outer diameter! This is very strange
and was not expected beforehand; one could think it means negative creep !
This strange phenomenon is further explained in detail in section 7.

-9-
 Figure 4 Cumulative probability curves for Methanor NW-cell
b. time to x% through wall damage
c. time to x% strain

100.00%

10.00%
Cumulative Probability

1.00%
10% Through Wall Damage
20% Through Wall Damage
30% Through Wall Damage
0.10% 40% Through Wall Damage
50% Through Wall Damage
Current Operational Hours
Subsequent Years Of Operation
0.01%
10000 100000 1000000
Total Service Time (Hours)

100.00%

10.00%
Cumulative Probability

1.00%
-0.2% Strain Accumulation

-0.5% Strain Accumulation

0.2% Strain Accumulation

0.10% 0.5% Strain Accumulation

1.0% Strain Accumulation

Current Operational Hours

Subsequent Years Of Operation

0.01%
10000 100000 1000000
Total Service Time (Hours)

- 10 -
6. Results of the inspections of the Methanor-1 tubes

US-attenuation measurements and (outer) diameter measurements were performed during

the turnaround of October 1998 by DSM Stamicarbon. More information about DSM
Stamicarbon’s inspection techniques can be found elsewhere [ref. 9,10,11]. From the
inspections it became clear that the diameter at the upper terrace was larger than at the lower
terrace of the Foster-Wheeler designed reformer furnace. At first instance it was thought that
diameter increase (and creep) was progressing faster at the upper terrace. However, when
the diameters measured along the tube length were compared to the original specification
and the (extra) “zero” measurements at the cold ends, it became clear that the tubes were
decreasing in outer diameter. This is represented in figure 5. Thus, the predicted negative
strains by the REFORM-analysis correlated well with the measured strains.

The US-attenuation measurements showed that more than 10% of the tubes showed
significant sound attenuation, which indicates a damage level of 30-50%. This is in
agreement with the predicted damage levels by the REFORM-analysis

7. Diameter decrease is not negative creep !

For reformer catalyst tubes, internal pressure stresses during operation are low, such that
thermal through-wall stresses dominate tube response. Initially, the thermal stresses (both
hoop and axial) are compressive at the outer surface, whilst tensile at the tube bore. This is
because during start-up of the reformer the outer part of the tube wall becomes hotter
because of the radiation from the burners. Therefore, the outer part of the tube wall wants to
increase more in diameter compared to the inner part of the tube wall. However, the material
at the outer part will be held by the material at the inner part. This results in compressive
stresses at the OD and tensile stresses at the ID.
With time at temperature the through wall stresses redistribute to become wholly tensile
through wall, reflecting the steady state pressure stress distribution. A situation can be
envisaged therefore whereby the outer part of the tube initially strains compressively and
subsequently in a tensile manner, whilst towards the bore of a tube response is tensile
throughout the same period. Constancy of material volume during stress redistribution
implies that the tube will increase in length during this transition to steady state.
Significantly, these observations suggest that creep damage, associated with tensile stresses,
can occur towards the bore of a reformer tube whilst the outer surface is straining
compressively.
Ultimately, failure may occur at very low tube dilation levels, even for modern alloys
(such as HP-Nb and HP micro -alloy) with reported creep ductilities up to 3-8%.

Figure 5 illustrates average external diameter measurements taken for the NE-cell of the
Methanor unit over a series of inspections. Included on the figure are one standard deviation
confidence intervals and the design tolerances for tube manufacture. In the absence of initial
diameter measurements, these have been inferred on the basis of cold end measurements
taken during the latest inspection. The data indicate a trend of reducing diameter with time,
with the average tube diameter for the last inspection falling below the minimum design
specification.

- 11 -
 Figure 5 Tube diameter as a function of time, NE-cell

110
Fired portion

Cold end, 1998

Specification

109
Tube diameter, mm

108

107
1970 1980 1990 2000
Year

A strict comparison between observed and predicted tube response is not possible in view of
the probabilistic nature of the REFORM methodology. However, on the basis of mean
deterministic response, figure 6 illustrates predicted time contours of external diameter hoop
strain along the length of a catalyst tube. Initially all positions strain compressively. The
extent of compressive strain is position dependent, being greater towards the top of the unit,
consistent with the maximum through wall thermal gradient. Eventually, the upper portion
of the tube reaches a turning point after which tube dilation occurs, but from a reduced
diameter. This upturn in response reflects the contribution of creep damage accumulation
towards the bore of the tube and associated load shedding on to undamaged material. For the
example given, tube failure is predicted to occur towards the top of the unit at negligible
tube dilation levels.

Since identifying the phenomenon at the Methanor-1 reformer unit, ERA has observed
similar behaviour on other similar reformer units. On the basis of the findings, subsequent
inspections at the Methanor plant will further use Stamicarbon’s US-attenuation inspection
technique, in preference to tube dilation monitoring, as a means of monitoring creep damage
in the reformer tube.

8. Sensitivity study

Because of the predicted long remaining lives of the catalyst tubes, Methanor decided to
investigate the possibility of increasing the tube skin temperatures (by increasing the heat
input). With an increase in outlet temperature, the methane slip will be reduced and this
will therefore save large amounts of money. With an increase of 30°C on tube skin
temperature, an extra 50 tons of methanol per day is realised.

ERA has performed a sensitivity study in order to quantify the effect of increased tube skin
temperatures on tube life. Given the results of this, Methanor has decided to increase the
tube skin temperatures and the outlet temperature in order to profit from the decreased
methane slip. The decrease in tube life was easily compensated. This simulation facility
makes the REFORM analysis a valuable tool in decision making.

- 12 -
 Figure 6 Modelled Strain Accumulation Along a Tube

0.000

-0.002

-0.004
Diametral Strain, %

-0.006

-0.008
Time, hr

99660
-0.010
201585
405435
-0.012
423555
475650
-0.014
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Height [m]

9. Concluding remarks

The REFORM analysis can predict : - crack initiation and tube failure ;
- strain accumulation with time ; and
- damage development with time,
in the form of cumulative probability curves.

With the above mentioned results, recommendations can be made about:

- advised future inspections (inspection timing, frequency scope, and inspection
method) ;
- advised availability of spare parts
- availability of the catalyst tubes and the reformer furnace as a whole.

Also, the inspection strategy can be optimised. When the model has not predicted crack
initiation yet (or when only low damage levels are predicted), it is not yet necessary to
perform an inspection based on the US-attenuation technique. For optimisation of the
prediction it is advisable to compare measured diameters with predicted diameters.
In many cases, this implies that inspection costs can be lowered.

In summary, it has been shown that using a validated model approach and probabilistic
techniques provides quantitative life assessment data in a risk of failure format. This,
together with the consequence analysis, enables a risk based life management strategy to be
adopted.

This type of assessment also allows operational changes to maximise production in response
to market demand to be planned and balanced against the price to be paid in terms of the life
of the component. Alternatively it allows operational changes to be made to optimise both
product yield and component/plant damage accumulation rates.

- 13 -
 Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank their colleagues who were involved in this project:
ERA Technology: Duncan. Humphrey, John Williamson
Methanor: Ab Steenbergen, Jaspert Grootendorst
DSM Stamicarbon: Jan Keltjens, Peter Molenaar, Hans Janssen, and Theo Huurdeman
The authors would also like to thank the respective management of DSM Stamicarbon,
Methanor vof. and ERA Technology Ltd. for permission to publish this paper.

Martin Church is now working for the Nuclear Research Group (NRG) in Petten, NL.

Rob Gommans is now working as an independent consultant under the name of

Gommans Metallurgical Services (GMS) in Stevensweert, NL.

References

[1]. F.Simonen, “User’s manual for the computer programme TUBE for creep analysis
of thick wall tubes”, Battelle project “Materials for steam reformers – II”,
Battelle OH (15jan1976)
[2]. T.Kawai, T.Mohri, K.Takemura, T.Shibasaki, “Stress analysis for prolonging tube
life”, AIChE symposium Denver “Ammonia Plant Safety”, 24 (1983) p.131-139
[3]. J.Brear, P.Aplin, R.Timmins, “The effect of primary creep on the Kachanov -
Rabotnov model - results on ½CrMoV, 1CrMo and Type 316 steels”,
ESIS/SIRIUS Int Conf ‘Behaviour of Defects at High Temperatures’ Sheffield, April
1992. ESIS Publication 15, ed. R. A. Ainsworth and R. P. Skelton, Mechanical
Engineering Press, London, 1993, pp 401-422
[4]. J.Williamson, J.Brear,"Risk based life management of catalyst tubes and pigtails",
Fourth Annual Ammonia & Urea Conference 'Asia 2000', Singapore, June 2000
[5]. J.Brear, J.M.Church, D.Humphrey, M.Zanjani, “Life Assessment of Steam
Reformer Radiant Catalyst Tubes - the use of damage front propagation methods",
Second HIDA Conf 'Advances in Defect Assessment in High Temperature Plant'
MPA, Stuttgart, Germany, October 2000. Paper S6-3
[6]. L.Kachanov, “Introduction to Continuum Damage Mechanics”,
Kluwer Academic, 1990. ISBN: 90-247-3319-7
[7]. G.Webster, R.Ainsworth, “High Temperature Component Life Assessment”,
Chapman and Hall, London, 1994. ISBN: 0-412-58520-0
[8]. R.Gommans, D.Jakobi, J.L.Jiménez, "State-of-the-art of materials and inspection
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[9]. J.Boogaard, “Detection of creep damage in reformer tubes”,
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equipment”, AIChE symposium “Ammonia Plant Safety”, 38 (1998) p.241-252
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