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8. Flipping coins and the binomial distribution

Consider two coins, one fair and one unfair. The probability of getting heads on a given flip of the unfair coin is 0.10. You are given one of these coins and

will gather information about your coin by flipping it. Based on your flip results, you will infer which of the coins you were given. At the end of the

question, which coin you were given will be revealed.

When you flip your coin, your result is based on a simulation. In a simulation, random events are modeled in such a way that the simulated outcomes

closely match real-world outcomes. In this simulation, each flip is simulated based on the probabilities of obtaining heads and tails for whichever coin you
were given. Your results will be displayed in sequential order from left to right.

Here’s your coin! Flip it 10 times by clicking on the red FLIP icons:

What is the probability of obtaining exactly as many heads as you just obtained if your coin is the unfair coin?

0.0069

0.9453

0.3874

0.7769

Points: 1/1

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What is the probability of obtaining exactly as many heads as you just obtained if your coin is the fair coin?

0.9453

0.7769

0.0069

0.0098

Points: 1/1

When you compare these probabilities, it appears more likely that your coin is the unfair    coin.

Points: 1/1

Explanation: Close Explanation

Flipping a coin 10 times and counting the number of heads is an example of a binomial experiment. The number of heads that you obtain is an
example of a binomial random variable. Each flip of the coin results in heads with probability p and tails with a probability of 1 – p.

You obtained x = 1 head. You can calculate binomial probabilities using the formula P(X = x) = [n! / (x!(n – x)!)](p)x x(1 – p)n – x n – x. If your coin

is the unfair one, the probability of obtaining 1 head is P(X = 1) = [10! / (1!(10 – 1)!)](0.10)1 1(0.90)9 9 = 0.3874. However, if your coin is fair, then
P(X = 1) = [10! / (1!(10 – 1)!)](0.5)1 1(0.5)9 9 = 0.0098.

The probability of obtaining your results is higher if your coin is the unfair coin. Therefore, it appears more likely that your coin is the unfair coin.

If you inferred that your coin is the unfair coin, your inference is correct. You have been flipping the unfair coin! If your answers to the likelihood
questions were correct but your inference was incorrect, it might be that you could make a correct inference if you gathered more information about
your coin by performing some additional flips.

If you flip a fair coin 10 times, what is the probability of obtaining as many heads as you did or less?

0.1357

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0.0107

0.5234

0.7769

Points: 1/1

The probability you just found is a measure of how unusual your results are if your coin is fair. A low probability (0.10 or less) indicates that your results

are so unusual that it is unlikely that you have the fair coin; thus, you can infer that your coin is unfair.

On the basis of this probability, you can    infer that your coin is unfair.

Points: 1/1

Explanation: Close Explanation

You obtained 1 head when you flipped your coin. The probability of flipping a fair coin 10 times and seeing 1 head or less is:

P(x ≤ 1) = f(0) + f(1)

= [10! / (0!(10 – 0)!)](0.5)0 0(0.5)10 10 + [10! / (1!(10 – 1)!)](0.5)
1 1(0.5)9 9

= 0.000977 + 0.009766
= 0.0107

Alternatively, you can consult the table of binomial cumulative probabilities in your text and find all the values of P(X ≤ k) for n = 10 and p = 0.5.
You can obtain the value of P(X ≥ k) by using the complement rule, P(X ≥ k) = 1 – P(X ≤ [k – 1]).

Because the probability of obtaining heads is less for the unfair coin than for the fair coin, the expected value of the binomial random variable is
smaller for the unfair coin than for the fair coin. In other words, in repeated runs of the experiment, you would obtain fewer heads from the unfair

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coin than from the fair coin. The probability you computed is the probability of obtaining your result or a more unusual result under the assumption
that your coin is fair. If this probability is relatively low (a probability less than 0.10 is usually considered relatively low), then you infer that your
assumption is incorrect (the coin is unfair). If this probability is not relatively low, then you cannot infer that your assumption is incorrect. In this
case, the probability of obtaining your result or a more unusual result given that your coin is fair is 0.0107. Since the probability is relatively low,
you can infer that your coin is unfair.

If you’ve determined that you can infer that your coin is unfair, your inference is correct. You have been flipping the unfair coin! If your answer to
the question was correct but your inference was incorrect, it might be that you could make a correct inference if you gathered more information
about your coin by performing some additional flips.

Click here to find out whether you were flipping the fair coin or the unfair coin.

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