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9. Discrete probability distributions #1

A study conducted by three law school professors found that asylum seekers in the United States face broad disparities in the nation’s immigration courts.

The professors discovered that 54% of refugees who ask for asylum in the San Francisco immigration court win asylum, but only 12% are granted asylum

in the Atlanta immigration court. [Source: Julia Preston, “Wide Disparities Found in Judging of Asylum Cases,” The New York Times, May 31, 2007.]

Select the appropriate distribution in the Distributions tool to help answer the questions that follow.

Px)

Binomial .40
Number of Trials = 30 .35
.7118 .2882
.30

Probability of Success = 0.12 .25

.20

.15

.10

.05

.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
x

You randomly select 30 refugees who are asking for asylum in the Atlanta immigration court. Let X denote the number of asylum seekers who win their
cases.

The probability that exactly two asylum seekers are granted asylum is 0.1747    .

Points: 1/1

Explanation: Close Explanation

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Because this example satisfies the properties of a binomial experiment, select the Binomial Distribution in the tool. There are two parameters for the
binomial: the number of trials and the probability of a success. In this situation, there are n = 30 trials (since you randomly select 30 asylum
seekers). If you define a success as winning asylum, then the probability of a success is p = 0.12. (It is just as correct to define a success as not

winning asylum. Once you define a success, make sure to be consistent with your definition throughout the problem.)

Supply the parameters to the tool, and you’ll see the graph of the probability distribution. The probability that exactly two asylum seekers are
granted asylum is the probability of two successes, P2). Place your cursor on the bar over x = 2, and the tool displays P2) = 0.1747.

The probability that at least five asylum seekers are granted asylum is 0.2882    .

Points: 1/1

Explanation: Close Explanation

The probability that at least five asylum seekers are granted asylum is the sum of the probabilities from P5) to P30). Click the radio button in the
tool to show the single vertical line. Position the line between x = 4 and x = 5, and the probability that X is at least five is displayed in blue as

0.2882.

The expected value of X is 3.6    , and the standard deviation of X is 3.1680    .

Points: 0.5 / 1

Explanation: Close Explanation

You can find the expected value of X, or E(X), using the general formula for the expected value of a discrete random variable. But there is a much

easier way to find E(X) when X has a binomial distribution:

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E(X) E(X)  =    =  µ µ  =    = np np

  =    = 30 (0.12) 30⁡0.12
  =    = 3.63.6

What does it mean to say that the expected value of X is 3.6? Envision running the experiment over and over again. Each time the experiment is
run, you record the value of X (the number of asylum seekers who win their cases). The average of all your recorded values of X would be close to
E(X) = 3.6 if the experiment were repeated a large number of times. It would be equal to E(X) = 3.6 if the experiment were repeated an infinite
number of times.

Note that E(X) increases (decreases) when the number of trials increases (decreases) or when the probability of a success increases (decreases).

The variance of X, or V(X), can be calculated using the general formula for the variance of a discrete random variable. But there is a much easier

way to find V(X) when X has a binomial distribution:

V(X) V(X)  =    =  σ 2 σ2  =    = np(1 – p) np(1 – p)

  =    = 30 (0.12) (0.88) 30⁡0.120.88
  =    = 3.16803.1680

The standard deviation of X, denoted σ, is the positive square root of the variance. In this case, σ equals 1.7799.

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