2-Literature Review

2.1 Climate change and Agricultural productivity

Pakistan's LEAD Climate Change Action Strategy defines the country as being extremely
susceptible to climate change. Pakistan is placed 12th in the world on the fragility index, with
economic damages of almost 4,5 billion dollars expected. Climate change is projected to have a
substantial impact on meadow productivity, along with crop and livestock production, as a
consequence of substantially greater temperatures, reduced surface availability of water, and
fluctuating patterns of precipitation (LP, 2008). Despite these concerns and projections, just
several analyses on the financial damage and social assistance effects intended as a consequence
of climate change destruction to agricultural production have been conducted in Pakistan.
The Global Change Impact Studies Centre, a research institute dedicated to climatic and
environmental change studies, was not formed in the country until 2002. (GCISC). The centre
acts as a think tank to assist objective evaluation and designers in regions such as global
warming and climate change, and it has been acknowledged as an independent unit since 2005,
serving as an Agency to the Advisory council on Climate Change alongside the Department of
Environment (UNFCCC, 2008). In the center's eight years of operation, just three articles have
been published in foreign journals, none of them actually facing the monetary impact of climate
change on the agricultural industry adaption.
The following simulation models have been used extensively by the centre:
Watershed Models (e.g., WatBal); National Climate Models(e.g.,RegCM3)
Models of Simulation (e.g., CROPGRO).
Despite widespread interest in measuring the social implications of climate change on a global
scale, empirical research on Asia still sparse. By combining two climate response functions, one
of which was obtained from a India's Ricardian cross-sectional study (Mendelsohn et al., 2001)
while the other predicted based on the outcomes of agricultural-economic simulations (Adams et
al., 1999), Yale University based on a GIM research titled "Climate Change Impacts on
Southeast Asian Agriculture" (Global Impact Model) attempts to determine the economic
consequences of climate change. Extrapolates the findings to all of the region's countries
(Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, etc.). China, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan,
the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand are among the countries involved. Vietnam).
The value obtained, the scale of the agricultural sector, the beginning weather variables, and the
climate situation all have a role in the agricultural effects of climate change, according to the
study. The research has provided some preliminary evidence of climate change's influence in this
region, forecasting economic losses for Pakistan's economy, the range is between two and
sixteen billion dollars (moderate and harsh scenarios). Agriculture into 2100, while also
emphasising the necessity for further scientific studies this region's research, it was specifically
mentioned that additional countries should be included than only India, which was utilised as a
shorthand for all Southeast Asian countries. More research is certainly required to improve the
impact estimates in this susceptible area. Potential for the both agriculture and administrations,
adaptive methods must be identified.(Mendelsohn, 2005; Mendelsohn, 2005; Mendelsohn, 2005;
Mendel.
Mohsin et al. (2011) used actual findings from the dry region to examine the influence of climate
change on agriculture. The study's goal was to find out more about the influence of climate
change on arid-region agriculture. The structured data was used to collect cross-sectional data
with the help of the Rawalpindi division's questionnaires of the climate change variables time
series data attained by use of a weather station The Ricardian approach was invented by
Ricardian used to investigate the links between the environment and the human body Over the
arid area, Net Homestead Income (NHI) was calculated. The study's main focus was on the
production of wheat products. The findings show that rising temperatures have a significant
negative impact on agriculture. Generation in a spine area an increase in earnings with the
increase in rain, this was predicted. General the temperature's negative pressure is greater than
the rains in the area produced a good result. It had been discovered that a 1% increase in
temperature would cause this resulted in a net income loss of Rs. 4180 per year.
Nairobi et al. (2006) attempted to look into the economic effects of climate change on Kenyan
agriculture. The study's goal was to quantify climate change. Cross-sectional influence on
Kenya's agricultural crops Climate and soil hydrologic results were collected using sectional
data.and the data for 816 households in a representative selection. The impact of the season was
evaluated using a seasonal Ricardian model. Climate change has an impact on net agricultural
income per acre. It was discovered that Agriculture production is influenced by the environment.
There is an issue. earnings and weather have a curvilinear relationship. on the one hand, and
earnings and rain on the other. The findings also show that the temperature section is essential.
Rainfall is less essential than climate change. Measuring climate change and disseminating
agricultural information were mentioned as ways to encourage farmers climate change
adjustments.
Global warming significantly decreased worldwide agricultural production, according to the
study (Ashfaq et al., 2011; Kaiser, Riha, Wilks, Rossiter, & Sampath, 1993; Shakoor et al.,
2011). The threat of such a climatic threat is a major problem in case of increasing global
temperatures. (According to Cline, 2008). Climate changes could result in storm surge,
undermining agricultural productivity. In a given scenario of Pakistan, Janjua et al. (2010)
investigated the influence of climate change on grains productivity. From 1960 to 2009, the data
is available. The trend of agricultural output was explored from 2010 to 2060 using data analysis.
The Vactor Auto Regression analysis was performed by Vactor. Utilized in the investigation
rising temperatures affected wheat yields, according to the results. Wheat productivity, while
monthly rainfall had a positive impact. The effects of temperature and rain on rice productivity in
the grain crop production of Punjab was studied by Mahmood, Ahmad, Hassan, and Bakhsh
(2012). Punjab's rice and wheat farming zones, where the country's best rice 'Basmati' is grown,
as examined. The weather data came from Pakistan's climatological department, Pakistan's
financial survey, Pakistan's agricultural data, and Punjab's economic facts. Cobb Douglas is the
director. The evaluation was carried out with the help of the function. During the rainy season,
rice productivity may be harmed in September and October. During harvest season, rice
productivity is harmed by rain. Agriculture productivity is still under danger in many parts of the
world, due to changes in precipitation, disasters, and storms around the world (Sushila, 2001).
In the Northwestern Pakistan, Khan, Anwar, and Khan (1988) examined the link between
precipitation, area, and grain production. The goal of that study was to look at the patterns of
precipitation patterns during the pre-sowing, planting, and developing phases of wheat in order
to figure out what they were. Their link with wheat production and acreage Secondary data was
gathered from a variety of sources 1960–1984 in order to achieve the study's goal.
Agricultural production is one of the world's oldest economic activity. It is not only the backbone
of the workforce's production of wheat supply, but also the source of raw materials. Industries
with raw materials the agriculture sector is reliant on environmental assets. Sensitive to natural
disasters and climatic change.
Climate change has been a disturbing factor for underdeveloped countries, and Pakistan is far
from alone in experiencing severe cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. Climate
change's numerous consequences on agriculture have gotten a lot of attention. Pakistan. Because
climate change is inextricably connected to food security and poverty in a large number of
countries, The vast majority of the inhabitants of the country. Pakistan's identity as a developed
country is based primarily on the agricultural sector, rendering it extremely vulnerable to climate
change's impacts. The single largest industry, agriculture and related activities, contributes the
most. Contributing 21% to GDP and employing 44% of the workforce appproximately 65
percent. The export of items made from raw materials earns foreign exchange acquired from the
agricultural sector In Pakistan, more than two-thirds of the population lives in urban areas.
Agriculture and agro-based industries support rural areas and people's livelihoods (Pakistan).
2007-08 Economic Survey).
Climate patterns are important determinants of agricultural output. Global climate change seems
to have become a severe threat to agricultural activity which has become crucial for any nation's
long-term growth (Howden et al., 2008).
As a result, the agricultural sector's productivity is the most affected by climate change. Because
of temperature variations, rainfall systems, earthquakes, and crop failures, and it has negative
consequences effects on natural resources (land and water) (Ali et al., 2017).
Because emerging economies, such as Pakistan, rely heavily on agriculture, direct exposure to
environment has a significant impact on their economies. Pakistan's environment is ideal for
growing a variety of crops, including wheat, cotton, maize, rice, and sugarcane. (Dharmasiri,
2012), although wheat is the most important crop in this region due to its high yield,
consumption, demand, and, most crucially, the climatic factors accessible (Curtis and others).
2014 (Halford).
In Pakistan, periodic changes in the atmosphere have had a direct negative impact on food
production, with substantial economic and traditional consequences loss. As a result, food
security has remained a top priority. Pakistan's government (Magsi and Sheikh) has a goal.
2017). Pakistan is now considered one of the top ten countries in the world. Climate change is
posing a severe threat to the world repercussions (Javed et al. 2017).
According to Ali and Erenstein (2017), a 1°C increase in temperature in Pakistan can result in a
decrease in population. Rice output is approximately 194,74 tonnes, and wheat production is
approximately 351,234 tonnes, maize production 387,812 tonnes, sugar-cane production 351,234
tonnes Cotton output is about 349,128 tonnes, and cane production is about 349,128 tonnes. 5519
metric tonnes Pakistan has a 1.74 percent unemployment rate, the proportion of the world's
economically active people. Any other agricultural product accounts for 4% of global
agricultural output. Assuming that other factors are equal, the country's labour force is more
productive. The variables stay the same. Aside from that, the production is excellent in the world
of wheat, legumes, citrus fruits, and veggies in comparison to the general population, is also
lower. Even after the green revolution and other technical advances, the world's agriculture
sector remains in a sorry situation. Improvements in Pakistan's institutions are also being made.
Several scientists have done empirical studies on the effects of climate change on wheat yields
(Solomon 2007; Hussain and Mudasser 2007). Their findings show that global climate change
and extreme weather are linked. Weather events have had a negative impact on the production of
Wheat is the most widely grown grain crop in the world.
From 1970 to 2014, Sultana et al. (2009) studied the impact of climate change and technological
advancement on wheat productivity in Henan, China. The findings show that changes in
technology have a significant impact on crop production over time. Whereas climate change has
an impact on wheat crop yields. The cost per square foot has been low.
Ahsan et al. (2020) used annual sequence data from 1971 to 2014 in Pakistan to investigate the
effects of climate change on wheat output. The results demonstrate that technical progressment
has a significant and favourable impact on wheat productivity, Despite the fact that climate
change has a minor impact on crop productivity, per-unit area.

Hypothesis
H1: Climate change negatively influence the agricultural productivity.

References
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