Research Article

Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Pakistan

Group members:

Areej Waheed
Iqra Naeem
Mehwish Abdul Rehman
 Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION
Climate change:
The Islamic Republic of Pakistan understands the importance of obtaining objective and
unbiased assessments of climate change in its territory, including determining the role of the
anthropogenic factor in current and future climate changes, and determining the impact of
climate change on the agricultural sector of the economy and the social sphere. (POINTNER &
RITZBERGER GRÜNWALD, 2019). The country is ranked 12th among the countries most
likely to be significantly affected by climate change. Temperature and precipitation fluctuations
have a strong impact on the country. Agriculture, forest, and water resources, on which a huge
portion of the economy and livelihoods is based, may become more vulnerable as a result of
these changes. (Saif Ullah, 2017)
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to the world in present times. It can be defined as
“Raising temperatures, storms, heatwaves, melting snow, rising sea levels, and flooding are all
aspects of how climate change is affecting the world.” In developing regions of the world, such
as Asia and Africa, the effects are more severe. Certain developed regions may benefit from the
rising temperatures. The scenario could be reversed if the temperature in these locations
continues to rise, resulting in other climatic extremes such as floods and droughts. (Wade and
Jennings, 2015).
In Pakistan Global climatic changes (i.e., temperature and precipitation changes) are expected to
worsen the ongoing process of watershed degradation, putting the economic viability of
mountainous, sub-mountain, and downstream plain areas in general, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(KP) in particular, in jeopardy. Some of the country's higher-latitude regions (including Chitral),
which represent for about 17% of the country's total territory, are in need of heat and may benefit
from climate changes. (Saif Ullah, 2017).
Agricultural productivity is threatened by any change in local climatic factors as caused by
climate change. Sea level rise, glacier retreat, frequent and destructive floods, higher
temperatures, increasing frequency of heat waves, and an increase in the occurrence of droughts
are all major contributors to climate change in Pakistan. These climate change risks create a
series of problems for current and future management, as well as policymaking, and have a direct
impact on agriculture, water resources, urban-rural management, and the economy as a whole.
Extreme weather events threaten both irrigated and rain-fed crops. Since 2010, heavy monsoon
rains have triggered severe recurring floods in Pakistan's major rivers. In 2012, the monsoon
season was very harsh, resulting in flooding that killed over 650 people. The greatest floods in
Pakistan's history struck in 2010, killing around 3000 people and affecting 20 million people
(WMO-No.1119). Around 3 million people in Pakistan were devastated by the floods of 2012,
which destroyed thousands of hectares of agricultural crops and lost 450 lives (Blunden and
Arndt, 2012).

Agriculture:
Agriculture is the main sector for the provision of raw materials to the downstream
industry for production. The fundamental role of agriculture is to overcome poverty, increase the
rate of employment, enhance food, security, quality of life, and upgrade the economic growth
rate rapidly. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is mainly dependent on the agriculture sector in the
least developed countries (LDCs). Thus, without improving the agriculture sector, their economy
cannot be developed.

In Pakistan’s economy, the agriculture sector plays a central role. The agricultural sector
is contributing almost 23.4% to the economy of Pakistan. The provincial government earmarked
just Rs 7.0 billion in ongoing fiscals against last year’s budget of Rs 21billion (Oct 17, 2018).

The most important crops in the agricultural sector of Pakistan include wheat, cotton, rice,
sugarcane, and maize. Agriculture's contribution to GDP growth is four times greater than that of
other industries (Jones and Thornton, 2009).

The agricultural sector contributes significantly to Pakistan's economic development. It promotes

24 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs 44.7 percent of the labor
force. Several industries rely on agricultural raw supplies. Several industries rely on agricultural
raw supplies. Agriculture directly or indirectly employs around 65.9% of the country's
population. Livestock farming and crop farming are the two primary sub-sectors of the
agricultural sector. Major crop farming accounts for roughly 33.4 percent of agriculture's value-
added while minor crop farming accounts for about 12.0 percent. However, with a growth rate of
3.7 percent in 2021, livestock production provided around 51.8 percent of agricultural value-
added (Government of Pakistan, 2021).

Thus, to analyze the role of the agricultural sector in Pakistan’s economy, it is important
to study the impact of climate change on major crops in Pakistan. There are two main crop
growing seasons in Pakistan. The winter crops, “Rabi” are sown in October-December and are
harvested in March-April. The sowing season of summer crops, “Kharif”, is generally longer. It
starts in February for sugarcane, March-May for cotton, June-July for rice, and July-August for
maize crop. The harvested of these crops starts in September and continues up to December with
exception of sugarcane which can proceed up to March or even beyond (USDA, 2010).

The Pakistan’s agriculture is facing severe challenges due to having the negative effects of the
climate change. This sector of the national gross domestic product (GDP) is 25% and it has
absorbed around 42% of the labor force. By this sector we can generate 75% of the profit from
our export sector. It is one of the largest employer sectors in Pakistan. The agriculture of
Pakistan faces a lot of serious challenges through the change in the climate. This is also induced
impact like the rising temperature, floods, drought and the yield loss. The variation in monsoons
and increase temperature is the big issue for the agricultural sector of Pakistan. There are many
evidences due to which we come to know that climate change is really getting effective.

In Pakistan, the temperature rise affects negatively on agricultural production while the
rainfall affects it positively. But the positive impact of rainfall is less than the negative impact of
temperature, especially on the wheat crop in Pakistan.

Problem statement:
Climate change is the change that comes into the weather like the pressure of the atmosphere,
change in the wind flows, patterns of the rainfall, humidity in the atmosphere, increase and
decrease in the temperature, smog, etc. When anyone of these will in the atmosphere then it is
known as climate change. It has already affected many countries including Pakistan and there is
a need for possible and valid policies to minimize the negative effects of all those things. In
Pakistan, many people depend on the agricultural sector for their income purpose. So, when the
climate changes then some of the people's income also gets disturbed. Most of the people of
Pakistan still depend on agriculture and rural-based economic activities for survival they need to
spend their life. The agriculture sector is not considered the largest share of the GDP growth, but
it is a significant sector because of the huge number of people dependent on this sector. Their
fates relate to agriculture. 
Objectives:
The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of climates like changes in
temperature and precipitation. The basic purpose of this research paper is whether climate
change has a positive or a negative effect on agriculture in Pakistan. More specifically, what has
been the impact of change in temperature and precipitation on agriculture production in
Pakistan? How far possible future changes in temperature and precipitation may affect the extent
of wheat, rice, and crop production in Pakistan? This research paper will be very helpful for the
farmers and the people who want to know how agriculture got effective by climate change. The
study's objectives include determining the relationship between climate change and agricultural
risks and making suggestions based on the findings.

Hypothesis:
Ho = Agriculture has a significant relationship with climate change.
H1 = Agriculture has no significant relationship with climate change.
 Chapter 2
Literature Review

Climate change and Agricultural productivity:

Pakistan's LEAD Climate Change Action Strategy defines the country as being extremely
susceptible to climate change. Pakistan is placed 12th in the world on the fragility index, with
economic damages of almost 4,5 billion dollars expected. Climate change is projected to have a
substantial impact on meadow productivity, along with crop and livestock production, as a
consequence of substantially greater temperatures, reduced surface availability of water, and
fluctuating patterns of precipitation (LP, 2008). Despite these concerns and projections, just
several analyses on the financial damage and social assistance effects intended as a consequence
of climate change destruction to agricultural production have been conducted in Pakistan.
The Global Change Impact Studies Centre, a research institute dedicated to climatic and
environmental change studies, was not formed in the country until 2002. (GCISC). The center
acts as a think tank to assist objective evaluation and designers in regions such as global
warming and climate change, and it has been acknowledged as an independent unit since 2005,
serving as an Agency to the Advisory Council on Climate Change alongside the Department of
Environment (UNFCCC, 2008). In the center's eight years of operation, just three articles have
been published in foreign journals, none of them actually facing the monetary impact of climate
change on the agricultural industry adaption.
The following simulation models have been used extensively by the center:
Watershed Models (e.g., WatBal); National Climate Models(e.g.,RegCM3)
Models of Simulation (e.g., CROPGRO).
Despite widespread interest in measuring the social implications of climate change on a global
scale, empirical research on Asia is still sparse. By combining two climate response functions,
one of which was obtained from India's Ricardian cross-sectional study (Mendelsohn et al.,
2001) while the other was predicted based on the outcomes of agricultural-economic simulations
(Adams et al., 1999), Yale University based on a GIM research titled "Climate Change Impacts
on Southeast Asian Agriculture" (Global Impact Model) attempts to determine the economic
consequences of climate change. Extrapolates the findings to all of the region's countries
(Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, etc.). China, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan,
the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand are among the countries involved. Vietnam).
The value obtained, the scale of the agricultural sector, the beginning weather variables, and the
climate situation all have a role in the agricultural effects of climate change, according to the
study. The research has provided some preliminary evidence of climate change's influence in this
region, forecasting economic losses for Pakistan's economy, the range is between two and
sixteen billion dollars (moderate and harsh scenarios). Agriculture into 2100, while also
emphasizing the necessity for further scientific studies in this region's research, it was
specifically mentioned that additional countries should be included than only India, which was
utilized as a shorthand for all Southeast Asian countries. More research is certainly required to
improve the impact estimates in this susceptible area. Potential for both agriculture and
administration, adaptive methods must be identified.(Mendelsohn, 2005; Mendelsohn, 2005;
Mendelsohn, 2005; Mendel.
Mohsin et al. (2011) used actual findings from the dry region to examine the influence of climate
change on agriculture. The study's goal was to find out more about the influence of climate
change on arid-region agriculture. The structured data was used to collect cross-sectional data
with the help of the Rawalpindi division's questionnaires of the climate change variables time
series data attained by the use of a weather station The Ricardian approach was invented by
Ricardian used to investigate the links between the environment and the human body Over the
arid area, Net Homestead Income (NHI) was calculated. The study's main focus was on the
production of wheat products. The findings show that rising temperatures have a significant
negative impact on agriculture. Generation in a spine area an increase in earnings with the
increase in rain, this was predicted. In General the temperature's negative pressure is greater than
the rains in the area producing a good result. It had been discovered that a 1% increase in
temperature would cause this resulted in a net income loss of Rs. 4180 per year.
Nairobi et al. (2006) attempted to look into the economic effects of climate change on Kenyan
agriculture. The study's goal was to quantify climate change. Cross-sectional influence on
Kenya's agricultural crops Climate and soil hydrologic results were collected using sectional data
and the data for 816 households in a representative selection. The impact of the season was
evaluated using a seasonal Ricardian model. Climate change has an impact on net agricultural
income per acre. It was discovered that Agriculture production is influenced by the environment.
There is an issue. earnings and weather have a curvilinear relationship. on the one hand, and
earnings and rain on the other. The findings also show that the temperature section is essential.
Rainfall is less essential than climate change. Measuring climate change and disseminating
agricultural information were mentioned as ways to encourage farmers’ climate change
adjustments.
Global warming significantly decreased worldwide agricultural production, according to the
study (Ashfaq et al., 2011; Kaiser, Riha, Wilks, Rossiter, & Sampath, 1993; Shakoor et al.,
2011). The threat of such a climatic threat is a major problem in case of increasing global
temperatures. (According to Cline, 2008). Climate changes could result in storm surges,
undermining agricultural productivity. In a given scenario of Pakistan, Janjua et al. (2010)
investigated the influence of climate change on grains productivity. From 1960 to 2009, the data
is available. The trend of agricultural output was explored from 2010 to 2060 using data analysis.
The Vactor Auto Regression analysis was performed by Vactor. Utilized in the investigation
rising temperatures affected wheat yields, according to the results. Wheat productivity, while
monthly rainfall had a positive impact. The effects of temperature and rain on rice productivity in
the grain crop production of Punjab were studied by Mahmood, Ahmad, Hassan, and Bakhsh
(2012). Punjab's rice and wheat farming zones, where the country's best rice 'Basmati' is grown,
as examined. The weather data came from Pakistan's climatological department, Pakistan's
financial survey, Pakistan's agricultural data, and Punjab's economic facts. Cobb Douglas is the
director. The evaluation was carried out with the help of the function. During the rainy season,
rice productivity may be harmed in September and October. During harvest season, rice
productivity is harmed by rain. Agriculture productivity is still in danger in many parts of the
world, due to changes in precipitation, disasters, and storms around the world (Sushila, 2001).
In Northwestern Pakistan, Khan, Anwar, and Khan (1988) examined the link between
precipitation, area, and grain production. The goal of that study was to look at the patterns of
precipitation patterns during the pre-sowing, planting, and developing phases of wheat in order
to figure out what they were. Their link with wheat production and acreage Secondary data was
gathered from a variety of sources 1960-1984 in order to achieve the study's goal.
Agricultural production is one of the world's oldest economic activity. It is not only the backbone
of the workforce's production of wheat supply but also the source of raw materials. In industries
with raw materials, the agriculture sector is reliant on environmental assets. Sensitive to natural
disasters and climatic change.
Climate change has been a disturbing factor for underdeveloped countries, and Pakistan is far
from alone in experiencing severe cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. Climate
change's numerous consequences on agriculture have gotten a lot of attention. Pakistan. Because
climate change is inextricably connected to food security and poverty in a large number of
countries, The vast majority of the inhabitants of the country. Pakistan's identity as a developed
country is based primarily on the agricultural sector, rendering it extremely vulnerable to climate
change's impacts. The single largest industry, agriculture and related activities, contribute the
most. Contributing 21% to GDP and employing 44% of the workforce approximately 65 percent.
The export of items made from raw materials earns foreign exchange acquired from the
agricultural sector In Pakistan, more than two-thirds of the population lives in urban areas.
Agriculture and agro-based industries support rural areas and people's livelihoods (Pakistan).
2007-08 Economic Survey).
Climate patterns are important determinants of agricultural output. Global climate change seems
to have become a severe threat to the agricultural activity which has become crucial for any
nation's long-term growth (Howden et al., 2008).
As a result, the agricultural sector's productivity is the most affected by climate change. Because
temperature variations, rainfall systems, earthquakes, and crop failures, it has negative
consequences effects on natural resources (land and water) (Ali et al., 2017).
Because emerging economies, such as Pakistan, rely heavily on agriculture, direct exposure to
the environment has a significant impact on their economies. Pakistan's environment is ideal for
growing a variety of crops, including wheat, cotton, maize, rice, and sugarcane. (Dharmasiri,
2012), although wheat is the most important crop in this region due to its high yield,
consumption, demand, and, most crucially, the climatic factors accessible (Curtis and others).
2014 (Halford).
In Pakistan, periodic changes in the atmosphere have had a direct negative impact on food
production, with substantial economic and traditional consequences loss. As a result, food
security has remained a top priority. Pakistan's government (Magsi and Sheikh) has a goal.
2017). Pakistan is now considered one of the top ten countries in the world. Climate change is
posing a severe threat to world repercussions (Javed et al. 2017).
According to Ali and Erenstein (2017), a 1°C increase in temperature in Pakistan can result in a
decrease in population. Rice output is approximately 194,74 tonnes, wheat production is
approximately 351,234 tonnes, maize production 387,812 tonnes, sugar-cane production 351,234
tonnes Cotton output is about 349,128 tonnes, and cane production is about 349,128 tonnes. 5519
metric tonnes Pakistan has a 1.74 percent unemployment rate, the proportion of the world's
economically active people. Any other agricultural product accounts for 4% of global
agricultural output. Assuming that other factors are equal, the country's labor force is more
productive. The variables stay the same. Aside from that, the production is excellent in the world
of wheat, legumes, citrus fruits, and veggies in comparison to the general population is also
lower. Even after the green revolution and other technical advances, the world's agriculture
sector remains in a sorry situation. Improvements in Pakistan's institutions are also being made.
Several scientists have done empirical studies on the effects of climate change on wheat yields
(Solomon 2007; Hussain and Mudasser 2007). Their findings show that global climate change
and extreme weather are linked. Weather events have had a negative impact on the production of
Wheat is the most widely grown grain crop in the world.
From 1970 to 2014, Sultana et al. (2009) studied the impact of climate change and technological
advancement on wheat productivity in Henan, China. The findings show that changes in
technology have a significant impact on crop production over time. Whereas climate change has
an impact on wheat crop yields. The cost per square foot has been low.
Ahsan et al. (2020) used annual sequence data from 1971 to 2014 in Pakistan to investigate the
effects of climate change on the wheat output. The results demonstrate that technical progression
has a significant and favorable impact on wheat productivity, Despite the fact that climate
change has a minor impact on crop productivity, per-unit area.
Zhai, et al. (2009) used a comparable general equilibrium (CGE) model to look at the impact of
climatic change on the agriculture sector of China in 2080. Their results showed 1.3 percent
decline in agricultural share in GDP. The CGE simulation results showed that in 2080
agricultural output would become slow which ultimately results in output losses except for wheat
which showed enhancement in output due to an increase in global wheat demand. The simulation
results also showed that as compared to world average agricultural production the agricultural
productivity in China would decline less.
Zhai and Zhuang (2009) made a study on the Southeast Asian region to research the economic
impact of global climate change on the said region by using the CGE model. consistent with the
impact is not consistent throughout the planet and developing countries would face large losses.
consistent with the simulation results made by them up to 2080 Southeast Asia would face 1.4
percent decline in GDP. Crop productivity would fall up to 17.3 percent, whereas, the agriculture
productivity of paddy rice would fall 16.5 percent which of wheat up to 36.3 percent. In the
future, the Southeast Asian countries' dependency on the import of those agricultural products
would increase creating more welfare losses and hence weakening the term of trade of this
region.
Schlenker (2006) relate the environmental change and the production yield for the production
sector of US. He found levels of temperature of different crops and then suggested land
according to their climate. He also said that if we give temperature more than threshold
temperature the crop will be ruined. For example, corn and soya bean can grow best at 29°C and
cotton at 33°C. If the increase their temperature above threshold level the production yield would
be low. This hypothesis was testified using 3000 green belts of United State in analysis. Except
autumn temperature of remaining three seasons reduce the production value but high rainfall
increases the production of United State. Thus, United State was not much affected or had a little
effect on their production side. Although developed countries were not much affected by this
little environment change but in future the environmental temperature would increase to a greater
level and will badly affect developing countries as well as developed countries. Environmental
temperature also depends upon latitude height. The countries having longer latitude would be
beneficial for production yield and vice versa.
Siddiqui, et, al. (2012) observed the impact of climate change on rice production in Panjab
provenance. There are three main stages for rice crop production, first stage consists of August,
September and October represent the second stage and third stage arrive at in November.
According to analyze temperature and rainfall have been used with their square term to examine
the nonlinear impact of these variables. The results show that temperature does not progress
smoothly in first two stages of production. Accordingly, in the first stage of rice production
increase in temperature is beneficial, although temperature remain 27 for first stage, further
increase in temperature become dangerous for production. In the second stage initially increase
in temperature is harmful for production, but after a certain temperature limit 26.75 it becomes
positive and raise in temperature does not affect on third stage of production, it means in Panjab,
temperature for third stage stand in the optimal limit for the entire period of third stage. The
results are the insignificant of rainfall for rice production in all the stages. The annual rainfall in
Pakistan is less (20mm) than the optimal require rainfall (40mm) for rice production. Although
water requirements decrease maturity period of or third stage of production which is in the
month of November. According to data average rain fall during this month only 5mm, so it is not
be harmful for crops. Hence the climate variable is irrelevant and not harmful for rice crop in
both upper and lower level of drizzle. The lower drizzle covered by irrigation method and upper
level does not access at all.
Hussain and Mudasser (2006) used OLS method to evaluate the impact of climate change on two
regions of Pakistan, swat 960m and Chitral 1500m above the sea level. They look into whether in
temperature up to 3°C would decrease the proportion growth season in this country. The result
showed that increased temperature become positive effect on high latitude and negative effects
on low altitude position. Increase temperature up to 1.5°C would increase the 14 percent yield in
Chitral but decrease yield 7 percent in swat and put negative effect. The propose modification
strategy of cultivating high yielding verities for warmer area of Pakistan because of await
increasing temperatures in future.

Hypothesis
H1 : Climate change negatively influence the agriculture productivity.

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