'U'XQMD3RWRþQLN

,QWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOHGXFDWLRQDOPRELOLW\LQWKHWUDQVLWLRQDO
period in Croatia: 20 years later

$EVWUDFW
,Q WKH SDVW WZR GHFDGHV &URDWLD KDV XQGHUJRQH SURIRXQG FKDQJHV ZDU DQG
WUDQVLWLRQKDYHUHVXOWHGLQDQDOWHUHGVRFLRSROLWLFDOFRQWH[WFKDQJHVLQWKHVRFLDO
VWUXFWXUH DQG DQ XQIDYRXUDEOH HFRQRPLF VLWXDWLRQ 7KH VRFLDO GLYHUVL¿FDWLRQ
ZKLFKKDVHPHUJHGKDVOHGWRVKDUSVRFLDOVWUDWL¿FDWLRQLQZKLFKWKHPLGGOH
VRFLDO VWUDWXP KDV DOPRVW YDQLVKHG DQG D QHZ QDUURZ HOLWH VWUDWXP EHHQ
FUHDWHG7KLV SDSHU ZLOO DQDO\VH SDWWHUQV RI LQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO PRELOLW\LQ WZR
SHULRGVDQGVKRZLQJWKDW&URDWLDQVRFLHW\KDVEHHQFKDUDFWHULVHG
E\DUHODWLYHO\ORZGHJUHHRILQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOPRELOLW\ZLWKDKLJKGHJUHHRI
VRFLDOUHSURGXFWLRQLQERWKWKHVRFLDOLVWDQGWUDQVLWLRQDOSHULRG

.H\ ZRUGV &URDWLD WUDQVLWLRQ VRFLDO VWUDWL¿FDWLRQ HGXFDWLRQ

LQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOPRELOLW\
1. INTRODUCTION

6RPHRIWKHFRQVHTXHQFHV&URDWLDQSRSXODWLRQKDVIDFHGLQSDVWWZHQW\\HDUV
DUHUHODWHGWRXQHTXDODSSURDFKWRHGXFDWLRQDQGXQHTXDOFKDQFHVDWWKHODERXU
PDUNHW ZLWK SURORQJHG VLWXDWLRQ RI VRFLDO LQVWDELOLW\ $W WKH HQG RI WKH ¿UVW
GHFDGHRIWKHstFHQWXU\ZLWK&URDWLDRQWKHWKUHVKROGRIMRLQLQJWKH(XURSHDQ
8QLRQWKHVRFLDOVFLHQFHVIDFHWKHFKDOOHQJHRIH[SODLQLQJLPSRUWDQWWUHQGVLQ
UHFHQWWLPHVDORQJZLWKDWWHPSWVWRIRUHVHHFRPLQJWUHQGV7KHDQDO\VLVRIVRFLDO
VWUDWL¿FDWLRQSUHVHQWVRQHRIWKHHVVHQWLDOFRPSRQHQWVRIVXFKLQYHVWLJDWLRQV
LHRQHRIWKHEDVHVIRUUHDFKLQJFRQFOXVLRQVRQWKHVRFLDOUHDOLWLHVDQGFKDQJHV
WRZKLFKZHDUHZLWQHVVHV:HDUHLQWHUHVWHGLQRQHSDUWLFXODUDVSHFWRIVRFLDO
DQG HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW ± WKH HIIHFW RI WKH OHYHO RI SDUHQWDO HGXFDWLRQ
PDWHUQDODQGSDWHUQDORQWKHHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWVRIVRQVDQGGDXJKWHUV
,QXVLQJWKLVPRGHOWRFRPSDUHLQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOPRELOLW\1ZHZLOODSSO\WKH
DSSURDFK ZKLFK -RKQVWRQ *DQ]HERRP DQG 7UHLPDQ   FDOOHG WKH
LQGLYLGXDOPRGHO,QRWKHUZRUGVLQDQDO\VLQJWKHLQÀXHQFHRIWKHPRWKHUVDQG
  ,QWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO PRELOLW\ DV D PHDVXUH RI WKH HGXFDWLRQDO VWDWXV RI WKH UHVHDUFK UHVSRQGHQWV
DORQJZLWKWKHHGXFDWLRQDOVWDWXVRIWKHLUSDUHQWVPRVWIUHTXHQWO\WKHVWDWXVRIIDWKHUVPD\EHGH¿QHGDV
XSZDUGPRELOLW\LQWKHFDVHRIDVKLIWWRZDUGVDKLJKHUVRFLDOVWUDWXPWKDQWKDWRIWKHUHVSRQGHQW¶VSDUHQWV
ZKLOHGRZQZDUGPRELOLW\RFFXUVZLWKDVKLIWWRZDUGVDORZHUVRFLDOVWUDWXP
 -RKQVWRQ*DQ]HERRPDQG7UHLPDQHVWDEOLVKHG¿YHPRGHOVRILQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOWUDQV-
IHUVWDWXVWUDQVIHUWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOPRGHOWKHMRLQWPRGHOWKHLQGLYLGXDOPRGHOWKHGRPLQDQFHPRGHODQG
WKHVH[UROHPRGHO:HDSSO\LQGLYLGXDOPRGHOREVHUYLQJPDWHUQDODQGSDWHUQDOLQÀXHQFHLQGHSHQGHQWO\

91
IDWKHUVHGXFDWLRQDOVWDWXVRQWKHLUFKLOGUHQ¶VDWWDLQPHQWVZHZLOOREVHUYHWKHVH
LQÀXHQFHVVHSDUDWHO\

 7KHPDLQJRDOVRIWKLVUHVHDUFKDUH
1.   WR FRQ¿UP WKH GLUHFWLRQV RI FKDQJH LQ WKH HGXFDWLRQDO VWUXFWXUHV RI
VRFLDOLVWDQGWUDQVLWLRQDO&URDWLD
2. WRFRPSDUHWKHUHVXOWVRIHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWEHWZHHQWKHVRFLDOLVW
DQGWUDQVLWLRQDOSHULRG

2XUWKHRUHWLFDOIUDPHZRUNDPRQJRWKHUVZLOODGKHUHWRPRGHUQLVDWLRQ and SROLWLFDO

WKHRU\7KH\VXJJHVWWKDWYDULDWLRQVLQUHJLPHVRIVRFLDOPRELOLW\EHWZHHQGLIIHUHQW
FRXQWULHVDQGGLIIHUHQW SHULRGVDUHV\VWHPDWLFDQGFDQEHH[SODLQHGE\HFRQRPLF
DQG SROLWLFDO GHYHORSPHQWV LQ D JLYHQ VRFLHW\$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH PRGHUQLVDWLRQ
WKHRU\7UHLPDQHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWZLOOOHDGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRID
ODERXUPDUNHWZKHUHMREVGHPDQGDQHYHULQFUHDVLQJOHYHORIVNLOOVRQWKHSDUWRI
WKHZRUNIRUFH7KHUHIRUHPHULWRFUDF\DQGQRWWKHVRFLDORULJLQVKRXOGLQÀXHQFH
WKH VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF SRVLWLRQ RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO ,QGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ OHDGV WR
¿HUFHU FRPSHWLWLRQ EHWZHHQ HPSOR\HUV PRUH HI¿FLHQW VHOHFWLRQ RQ WKH ODERXU
PDUNHW DQG WKXV WR WKH ZHDNHU LQÀXHQFH RI VRFLDO EDFNJURXQG 7HFKQRORJLFDO
LQQRYDWLRQVDQGWKHSURFHVVRILQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQPDNHDVRFLHW\PRUHRSHQZKLFK
PHDQVWKDWIDPLO\RULJLQVH[HUWRQO\DOLPLWHGLQÀXHQFHRQHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQW
DQGRFFXSDWLRQ,QVWHDGLQGLYLGXDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVVXFKDVDVSLUDWLRQVHIIRUWVDQG
IRUPDOHGXFDWLRQGHWHUPLQHZKRZLOODFWXDOO\PDNHSURJUHVV%ODXDQG'XQFDQ
2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHSROLWLFDOWKHRU\3DUNLQLPSOLHVWKDWSROLWLFDO
DQGFXOWXUDOFRQGLWLRQVLQDVRFLHW\ZLOOFKDQJHXQGHUWHFKQRORJLFDODGYDQFHPHQW
ZKLFKZLOOOHDGWRYDULDWLRQVLQVRFLDOPRELOLW\6LQFH&URDWLDKDGJRQHWKURXJK
SURIRXQGFKDQJHVRILWVVRFLDOSROLWLFDODQGHFRQRPLFRUGHULWZLOOEHLQWHUHVWLQJ
WRVHHZKHWKHUSROLWLFDOand PRGHUQLVDWLRQWKHRU\FDQEHYDOLGDWHG7KHUHIRUH
WKLVSDSHUZLOODQDO\VHSDWWHUQVRILQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOPRELOLW\LQWZRSHULRGV
DQGDLPLQJDWLGHQWLI\LQJGLUHFWLRQRIVRFLDOVWUDWL¿FDWLRQLQVRFLDOLVW
DQGWUDQVLWLRQDOSHULRGDQGFRPSDULQJV\VWHPVRIVRFLDOVWUDWL¿FDWLRQEHWZHHQ
VRFLDOLVWDQGWUDQVLWLRQSHULRG
2. METHODOLOGY
,QRXUUHVHDUFKZHVWDUWHGIURPWKUHHJHQHUDOK\SRWKHVHV

1. WKHUHLVVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWLQÀXHQFHRIUHVSRQGHQWV¶JHQGHUDQGWKH
HGXFDWLRQDWWDLQPHQWRIWKHLUSDUHQWVRQWKHHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRI
WKHUHVSRQGHQWV
2. WKHUH LV VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQL¿FDQW VHOIUHFUXLWPHQW DPRQJ PHPEHUV RI

92
 GLIIHUHQWHGXFDWLRQDOVWDWXVHV

3. WRWDO PRELOLW\ LV KLJKHU LQ WKH WUDQVLWLRQDO SHULRG WKDQ LQ WKH VRFLDOLVW
SHULRG

 'DWDIURPWZRHPSLULFDOUHVHDUFKSURMHFWVLQYHVWLJDWLQJWKHSUREOHP
RIVRFLDOVWUDWL¿FDWLRQE\TXDQWLWDWLYHGDWDJDWKHULQJZHUHXVHGLQWKLVDQDO\VLV
%RWKTXHVWLRQQDLUHVKDGHTXDOFRUHRIWKHTXHVWLRQVVXUYH\LQJVRFLDOEDFNJURXQG
RIWKHUHVSRQGHQWV7KHVHZHUHWKHUHVHDUFKSURMHFWVFRQGXFWHGE\WKH,QVWLWXWH
IRU6RFLDO5HVHDUFKLQ=DJUHE,',=
1. 6RFLDOGHYHORSPHQWFRQGXFWHGE\VHYHUDOVFLHQWL¿FLQVWLWXWLRQV
LQ =DJUHE DQG RWKHU FHQWUHV LQ WKH IRUPHU <XJRVODYLD 7KH &URDWLDQ
VDPSOHFRYHUHGUHVSRQGHQWV
2. 6RFLDO DQG UHOLJLRXV FKDQJHV LQ &URDWLD  FRPSULVLQJ 
UHVSRQGHQWV

7KH OHYHO RI HGXFDWLRQ RI UHVSRQGHQWV ZDV RSHUDWLRQDOLVHG LQWR ¿YH
FDWHJRULHV QR TXDOL¿FDWLRQV SULPDU\ VFKRRO RQO\ FRPSOHWHG RU QRW WKUHH
\HDU VHFRQGDU\ VFKRRO YRFDWLRQDO HGXFDWLRQ IRXU\HDU VHFRQGDU\ VFKRRO
YRFDWLRQDO HGXFDWLRQ DQG JHQHUDO HGXFDWLRQ ± J\PQDVLD KLJKHU HGXFDWLRQ
WZRRUWKUHH\HDUWHUWLDU\HGXFDWLRQDQGXQLYHUVLW\RUSRVWJUDGXDWHHGXFDWLRQ
6LQFHLQWKHVDPSOHWKHUHZHUHDYHU\ODUJHQXPEHURISDUHQWVZKRKDGQRW
FRPSOHWHGSULPDU\HGXFDWLRQDQGDUHODWLYHO\VPDOOQXPEHUZKRKDGDQ\IRUP
RIWHUWLDU\HGXFDWLRQZHVOLJKWO\FKDQJHGFODVVL¿FDWLRQRISDUHQWDOHGXFDWLRQ
:HVHSDUDWHGSULPDU\HGXFDWLRQLQWRFRPSOHWHDQGLQFRPSOHWHZKLOHPDNLQJ
KLJKHUHGXFDWLRQDQGXQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWLRQDVLQJOHFDWHJRU\

3. RESULTS: INTERGENERATIONAL EDUCATIONAL MOBILITY

IN CROATIA IN LATE SOCIALIST AND TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
,WFDQEHDVVXPHGWKDWLQWKHHDUO\VGXHWRFKDQJHVLQWKHHFRQRPLFDQG
SROLWLFDO V\VWHPV FKDQJHV RFFXUUHG LQ WKH FKDQQHOV RI PRELOLW\ OHDGLQJ WR
FKDQJHVLQWKHSDWWHUQVRIVRFLDOVWUDWL¿FDWLRQ$WWKH¿UVWOHYHORIRXUDQDO\VLV
ZH FDQ ORRN DW WKH HGXFDWLRQDO VWUXFWXUH RI UHVSRQGHQWV )LJXUH  EDVHG RQ
,',=UHVHDUFKIURPDQG

93
)LJXUH7UHQGVLQHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRIWKHUHVSRQGHQWVLQDQG


7KHGDWDSUHVHQWHGVXJJHVWVLJQL¿FDQWFKDQJHVZKHUHWKHVLJQL¿FDQFHWRWKH
IDFWWKDWEHWZHHQWKHVRFLDOLVWDQGWUDQVLWLRQDOSHULRGWKHQXPEHURIXQTXDOL¿HG
UHVSRQGHQWVIHOOGUDVWLFDOO\IURPDERXWWZRWKLUGVLQWKHHDUOLHUVWXG\WRDERXW
WZR¿IWKVLQ$VRPHZKDWVLJQL¿FDQWLQFUHDVHRFFXUUHGLQWKHFDWHJRU\RI
DFDGHPLFDOO\TXDOL¿HGUHVSRQGHQWVDQGWKRVHZKRKDGFRPSOHWHGKLJKVFKRROV
±DQDOPRVWWZRIROGLQFUHDVHLQWKHSHULRGXQGHULQYHVWLJDWLRQ7KHQXPEHURI
UHVSRQGHQWVZLWKWKHIRXU\HDUVHFRQGDU\HGXFDWLRQJUHZE\WZRWKLUGVZKLOH
WKHJURXSWKDWFRPSOHWHGDWKUHH\HDUVHFRQGDU\HGXFDWLRQDOPRVWGRXEOHG,Q
DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH WUHQG ZKLFK SUHYDLOHG IURP WKH PLG V RQZDUG ZH
FDQFRQFOXGHWKDWDVL]HDEOHLQFUHDVHLQDFDGHPLFHGXFDWLRQLVWREHH[SHFWHG
SDUWLFXODUO\VLQFHWKLVLVWKHRQO\FDWHJRU\ZKLFKKDVWKHFDSDFLW\IRULQFUHDVHG
JURZWKDQGDOVRGXHWRFKDQJHVLQWKHHGXFDWLRQV\VWHPSULPDULO\EHFDXVHRI
WKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHQXPEHURIHGXFDWLRQDOLQVWLWXWLRQV7KLVLVVXSSRUWHGE\WKH
LQFUHDVHLQWKHQXPEHURIVWXGHQWVZKLFKVKRZVWKDWWKHQXPEHURIVWXGHQWV
DOPRVWWULSOHGEHWZHHQDQG)LJXUH

94
 2010/2011 148.616
2009/2010 145.263
2008/2009 134.188
2007/2008 138.126
2006/2007 136.129
2005/2006 132.952
2004/2005 128.670
2003/2004 120.822
2002/2003 116.434
2001/2002 107.911
2000/2001 100.297
1999/2000 96.798
1998/1999 91.874
1997/1998 90.021
1996/1997 85.752
1995/1996 84.208
1994/1995 80.185
1993/1994 80.410
1992/1993 75.514
1991/1992 68.720
1990/1991 70.781
1989/1990 69.021
1988/1989 65.276
1987/1988 62.981
1986/1987 60.001
1985/1986 55.886
1984/1985 57.040
1983/1984 57.772
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000

)LJXUH1XPEHURIXQLYHUVLW\DQGRWKHUWHUWLDU\OHYHOVWXGHQWVDWWKHEHJLQQLQJ
RIWKHDFDGHPLF\HDU3

7KHLPSDFWRIPRWKHUµVDQGIDWKHUµVHGXFDWLRQDOOHYHORQWKHUHVSRQGHQWVOHYHOV
RI HGXFDWLRQ LV VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH  IRU  DQG  :H LPSOHPHQWHG RQH
ZD\DQDO\VLVRIYDULDQFHLQRUGHUWRVKRZWKDWGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHHGXFDWLRQDO
DWWDLQPHQWVRIUHVSRQGHQWVDUHLQÀXHQFHGE\WKHHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRIWKHLU
SDUHQWV2EWDLQHG)UDWLRVDQGOHYHOVRIVWDWLVWLFDOVLJQL¿FDQFHDUHDOVRSUHVHQWHG
LQWKHWDEOHVEHORZ
3ODFHKHUH7DEOH 5HVXOWVRIDQRYDWHVWRQWKHHIIHFWVRIPRWKHUµVDQGIDWKHUV
OHYHORIHGXFDWLRQLQDQG
/RRNLQJDWWKHUHVXOWVVKRZQLQ7DEOHZHZHUHOHGWRWKHFOHDUFRQFOXVLRQ
WKDWDQLQFUHDVHRIOHYHORIHGXFDWLRQRIHLWKHUSDUHQWOHDGVWRWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKH
HGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRIUHVSRQGHQWV,QRWKHUZRUGVLWLVFOHDUWKDWZHZHUH
GHDOLQJZLWKSDUWLFXODUGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRIUHVSRQGHQWV
ZKLFKZHUHWKHUHVXOWRIGLIIHUHQWHGXFDWLRQDOVWDWXVHVRIWKHIDPLO\7KHVHWUHQGV
VKRZWKDWWKHLQÀXHQFHRIIDWKHUV¶HGXFDWLRQLVPRUHGLVWLQFWWKDQWKHLQÀXHQFH
 6RXUFH&URDWLDQ%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV

95
RIWKHPRWKHUV¶HGXFDWLRQ&RPSDULVRQVRIWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQHGXFDWLRQDOOHYHOV
RIUHVSRQGHQWVZKRVHSDUHQWVKDYHORZHURUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQDOVWDWXVVKRZWKDW
WKHFKDQFHVDUHDOPRVWWKUHHDQGDKDOIWLPHVJUHDWHUWKDWFKLOGUHQZLOODFKLHYH
KLJKHUUHVXOWVLIWKH\KDYHKLJKHURUXQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWHGIDWKHUV

7KH OHDVW GLIIHUHQFH LQ HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW ZDV QRWHG DPRQJ UHVSRQGHQWV
ZKRVHIDWKHUVKDGFRPSOHWHGHLWKHUIRXU\HDUVHFRQGDU\RUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ
+RZHYHULQWKHVDPSOHWKHLQÀXHQFHRIWKHOHYHORIPDWHUQDOHGXFDWLRQ
VKRZHGDQXQH[SHFWHGGLUHFWLRQLQDFDVHRIPRWKHUVZKRKDGFRPSOHWHGIRXU
\HDUVRIVHFRQGDU\HGXFDWLRQ7KHVHPRWKHUVKDGDPRUHIDYRXUDEOHLQÀXHQFH
RQ WKH HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW RI WKHLU FKLOGUHQ WKDQ PRWKHUV ZLWK KLJKHU RU
XQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWLRQ7KLVLVPRVWSUREDEO\DGLVWRUWLRQGXHWRWKHYHU\VPDOO
QXPEHURIPRWKHUVZLWKKLJKHURUXQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWLRQLQWKHVDPSOHRQO\
 ,I ZH H[DPLQH RU FRPSDUH SDWHUQDO DQG PDWHUQDO LQÀXHQFHV LQ PRUH
GHWDLO ZH FDQ VHH WKDW SDWHUQDO KLJKHU RU XQLYHUVLW\ HGXFDWLRQ KDG D JUHDWHU
LQÀXHQFHRQFKLOGUHQ¶VLPSURYHGHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWWKDQPDWHUQDOKLJKHU
RUXQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWLRQ

7KH FRQFOXVLRQV IRU  ZHUH YHU\ VLPLODU WKH FKLOGUHQ RI KLJKO\ HGXFDWHG
SDUHQWVDWWDLQHGRQDYHUDJHDKLJKHUOHYHORIHGXFDWLRQWKDQWKRVHZKRVHSDUHQWV
KDGDORZHUOHYHORUWKUHH\HDUVHFRQGDU\HGXFDWLRQ7KHGLUHFWLRQRIGLIIHUHQFH
ZDVWKHVDPHDVLQLQGLFDWLQJWKDWWKHHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRIFKLOGUHQ
LQFUHDVHVDWWKHVDPHUDWHDVWKHHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRISDUHQWV+RZHYHUDW
WKHJHQHUDOOHYHOWKHLQÀXHQFHRIWKHOHYHORISDWHUQDOHGXFDWLRQZDVZHDNHULQ
WKDQLQZKLOHWKHLQÀXHQFHRIWKHOHYHORIPDWHUQDOHGXFDWLRQZDV
VWURQJHU$JDLQ WKH PRVW GLVWLQFW GLIIHUHQFH ZDV QRWHG EHWZHHQ UHVSRQGHQWV
ZKRVHSDUHQWVKDGDORZHUOHYHORIHGXFDWLRQDQGWKRVHZLWKXQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWHG
SDUHQWV 7KH OLNHOLKRRG RI DWWDLQLQJ EHWWHU HGXFDWLRQ LV WZR WLPHV KLJKHU IRU
FKLOGUHQRIPRWKHUVZLWKXQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWHGWKDQRIPRWKHUVZLWKORZHUOHYHOV
RI HGXFDWLRQ$OVR WKLV OLNHOLKRRG LV WZR DQG D KDOI WLPHV JUHDWHU LQ FDVH RI
SDWHUQDOHGXFDWLRQ)ROORZHGE\WKH)UDWLRLWVXJJHVWVWKDWLQWKHGLIIHUHQFH
EHWZHHQWKHLQÀXHQFHRIWKHPRWKHUV¶DQGIDWKHUV¶HGXFDWLRQRQWKHHGXFDWLRQDO
DWWDLQPHQWRIFKLOGUHQKDGEHHQUHGXFHGDOWKRXJKSDWHUQDOHGXFDWLRQVWLOOKDGD
JUHDWHULQÀXHQFHWKDQPDWHUQDORQH,QFRQWUDVWWRWKHVPDOOHVWGLIIHUHQFH
QRWHGLQZDVLQWKHLQÀXHQFHRIWKHHGXFDWLRQDOOHYHORIERWKSDUHQWVRQ
WKH HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW RI UHVSRQGHQWV ZKRVH PRWKHUV KDG WKUHH RU IRXU
\HDUVHFRQGDU\HGXFDWLRQDQGZKRVHIDWKHUVKDGIRXU\HDURUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ
7KHIROORZLQJDQDO\VLVZLOOVKRZWKHZD\LQZKLFKWKHPRWKHUV¶7DEOHDQG
)LJXUHDQGWKHIDWKHUV¶7DEOHDQG)LJXUHOHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQLQÀXHQFHG
WKH HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW RI VRQV DQG GDXJKWHUV LQ WKH REVHUYHG SHULRGV
)URPWKHUHVXOWVGLVSOD\HGLWFDQEHVHHQWKDWWKHLQÀXHQFHRIJHQGHURQWKH
HGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRIUHVSRQGHQWVZDVZHDNHULQLQWHUPVRIREVHUYLQJ

96
PDWHUQDOOHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQZKLOHWKHLQÀXHQFHRISDWHUQDOOHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQ
RQWKHHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRIUHVSRQGHQWVZDVVWURQJHULQ+RZHYHU
DOWKRXJKWKHVWXG\VKRZHGQRVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQ
WKH PRWKHUV¶ OHYHOV RI HGXFDWLRQ DQG WKH JHQGHU RI UHVSRQGHQWV LQ  WKLV
LQWHUDFWLRQZDVSUHVHQWWKRXJKZLWKDUHODWLYHO\ORZ)UDWLR7KHLQWHUDFWLRQRI
WKHIDWKHUV¶OHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQDQGWKHJHQGHURIUHVSRQGHQWVUHSHDWHGWKHVDPH
SDWWHUQ±LQWKHUHZDVQRVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWLQWHUDFWLRQZKHUHDVLQWKH
ODWHUSHULRGLWZDVSUHVHQWWKRXJKZLWKDQHYHQORZHUYDOXHWKDQWKDWREVHUYHG
IRUWKHLQÀXHQFHRIPDWHUQDOHGXFDWLRQ

3ODFHKHUH7DEOH 5HVXOWVRIDQRYDWHVWRQWKHHIIHFWVRIUHVSRQGHQWµVVH[DQG
PRWKHUµVOHYHORIHGXFDWLRQLQDQG
3ODFHKHUH7DEOH 5HVXOWVRIDQRYDWHVWRQWKHHIIHFWVRIUHVSRQGHQWµVVH[DQG
IDWKHUµVOHYHORIHGXFDWLRQLQDQG

7KHGLUHFWLRQRIWKHUHVXOWLQJLQWHUDFWLRQDOHIIHFWVLVFOHDUO\VKRZQLQ)LJXUHV
 DQG  FRQFHUQLQJ WKH LQÀXHQFH RI PDWHUQDO HGXFDWLRQ DQG WKH JHQGHU RI
UHVSRQGHQWVRQWKHLUHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWDQGLQ)LJXUHVDQGFRQFHUQLQJ
WKH LQÀXHQFH RI SDWHUQDO HGXFDWLRQ DQG WKH JHQGHU RI UHVSRQGHQWV RQ WKHLU
HGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQW

97
)LJXUH5HVXOWVRIDQRYDWHVWRQWKHHIIHFWVRIUHVSRQGHQWµVVH[DQGPRWKHUµV
OHYHORIHGXFDWLRQLQ 3) DQG4) 2004

)LJXUH 5HVXOWVRIDQRYDWHVWRQWKHHIIHFWVRIUHVSRQGHQWµVVH[DQGIDWKHUµVOHYHO
RIHGXFDWLRQLQ 5)DQG6) 2004
6WDUWLQJ ZLWK WKH LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQ RI WKH OHYHO RI WKH PRWKHUV¶ HGXFDWLRQ DQG
WKH UHVSRQGHQWV¶ JHQGHU RQ WKHLU HGXFDWLRQ ZH QRWH WKDW LQ  WKH OHYHO
RI HGXFDWLRQ KDG D VLJQL¿FDQW LQÀXHQFH RQ ERWK JHQGHUV DQG LW ZDV PRUH
VLJQL¿FDQWLQWKHFDVHRIZRPHQWKDQPHQ7KHUHLVREYLRXVDOPRVWOLQHDUJURZWK
DV PDWHUQDO OHYHOV RI HGXFDWLRQ LQFUHDVH7KLV JURZWK LV LQWHUUXSWHG IRU PDOH
UHVSRQGHQWVLQFDVHRIPRWKHU¶VKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQZKLFKFDQDJDLQEHH[SODLQHG
E\ WKH VPDOO QXPEHU RI VXFK PRWKHUV LQ WKH  VDPSOH 7KH LQÀXHQFH RI
WKHIDWKHUV¶OHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQIROORZVDVLPLODUORJLF$JDLQWKHLQÀXHQFHRI
SDWHUQDOHGXFDWLRQLVPRUHVLJQL¿FDQWUHJDUGLQJGDXJKWHUVWKDQVRQVEXWLQWKLV
FDVHVRQVRIKLJKO\HGXFDWHGIDWKHUVDWWDLQKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQWRDJUHDWHUGHJUHH
WKDQGDXJKWHUV

7KHQH[WSHULRGREVHUYHGVKRZVLQWHUHVWLQJWUHQGVDVWKHLQÀXHQFHRIPDWHUQDO
OHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQGLYHUVL¿HVIHPDOHUHVSRQGHQWVPRUHVLJQL¿FDQWO\WKDQWKH
SDWHUQDO LQÀXHQFH &RQFUHWHO\ GDXJKWHUV RI YRFDWLRQDOO\ HGXFDWHG PRWKHUV
KDYHDGLVWLQFWO\JUHDWHUSUREDELOLW\RIDWWDLQLQJKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQDOOHYHOVWKDQ
PDOHUHVSRQGHQWVDQGDVLPLODUWUHQGLVSUHVHQWZKHQREVHUYLQJWKHLQÀXHQFHRI

98
IDWKHUVZKRKDYHIRXU\HDUVHFRQGDU\RUKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQ7KHIDWKHU¶VOHYHORI
HGXFDWLRQLQWHUDFWVZLWKWKHJHQGHURIWKHUHVSRQGHQWVLQDZD\WKDWGLIIHUHQFHV
LQ LQÀXHQFH RQ VRQV DQG GDXJKWHUV DUH PLQLPDO 7KHUH LV D VRPHZKDW EHWWHU
HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW RI GDXJKWHUV ZKRVH IDWKHUV KDYH IRXU\HDU VHFRQGDU\
HGXFDWLRQZKLOHIDWKHUVZLWKKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQKDYHLQDYHUDJHVRQVZLWKMXVW
VOLJKWO\EHWWHUHGXFDWLRQDWWDLQPHQWWKDQGDXJKWHUV
4. DISCUSSION: DIFFERENCES IN RESULTS OF
INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY IN WESTERN EUROPEAN AND
FORMER SOCIALIST COUNTRIES
6RPHLQVLJKWVRQLQWHUQDWLRQDOYDULDWLRQVLQLQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO
PRELOLW\

-RKQVWRQ*DQ]HERRPDQG7UHLPDQIROORZLQJWKHIUDPHZRUNVHW

XSE\.RUXSSDQG.RUXSS*DQ]HERRPDQG9DQGHU/LSSHKDYH
LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK LQGLYLGXDO SDUHQWDO LQÀXHQFH  PDWHUQDO RU
SDWHUQDOGRPLQDWHVDQGZKHWKHUVXFKLQÀXHQFHVUHODWHVSHFL¿FDOO\WRWKHFKLOG¶V
JHQGHU LQGLYLGXDO PRGHO 7KH\ XVHG GDWD JDWKHUHG EHWZHHQ  DQG 
IURPFRXQWULHVDQGVWXGLHV7KH\HVWDEOLVKHGWKDWDPDWHUQDOLQÀXHQFH
LVVWURQJHUWKDQSDWHUQDOLQÀXHQFHLIWKHPRWKHULVPRUHKLJKO\HGXFDWHGWKDQ
WKH IDWKHU E WKDW PDWHUQDO LQÀXHQFH LV VWURQJHU LQ UHJDUG WR GDXJKWHUV WKDQ
WR VRQV DQG F WKDW LW LV QHFHVVDU\ WR LQFOXGH WKH YDULDEOHV RI ERWK SDUHQWV¶
HGXFDWLRQVLQRUGHUWRH[SODLQWKHIRUPDWLRQRIPRVWRIWKHLUFKLOG¶VHGXFDWLRQ
7KH\ DOVR IRXQG WKDW WKH HIIHFW RI PDWHUQDO HGXFDWLRQ RYHU D SHULRG RI WLPH
QRWRQO\GHFUHDVHGEXWGLGVRIDVWHUWKDQSDWHUQDOHGXFDWLRQ,QDSSO\LQJWKHLU
PRGHOVWKHDXWKRUVFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHLQGLYLGXDOPRGHOEHVWFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKH
GDWDSURYLGHGE\RIWKHFRXQWULHVFRYHUHGE\WKHVWXG\WKHH[FHSWLRQV
ZHUH)LQODQG(DVW*HUPDQ\-DSDQ/DWYLD0DOD\VLD3RUWXJDO6ORYHQLDDQG
6ZLW]HUODQG$QRWKHU UHVHDUFK SURMHFW WKDW WRRN LQWR DFFRXQW WKH YDULDEOH RI
PDWHUQDOHGXFDWLRQZDVFRQGXFWHGLQ,UHODQGE\+D\HVDQG0LOOHU
ZKRVHGDWDVKRZHGWKDWPDWHUQDOLQÀXHQFHZDVUHOHYDQWWRWKHHGXFDWLRQ
DQGYRFDWLRQVRIERWKVRQVDQGGDXJKWHUVDOWKRXJKLWLQÀXHQFHGWKHVWDWXVRI
GDXJKWHUVPRUHWKDQVRQV¶&RUUHVSRQGLQJUHVXOWVFDQEHIRXQGLQ0.DOPLMQ
DQG6(.RUXSSHWDO
%UHHQDQG/XLMN[FODLPWKDWWKHSDWKIURPRULJLQVWRGHVWLQDWLRQVWDWXV
YLDHGXFDWLRQKDVDQLQFUHDVLQJHIIHFWRQWKHHTXDOLW\DQGWKXVWKHPRELOLW\RI
WKH LQKDELWDQWV RI (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV$FFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU DQDO\VLV RQO\ WZR
FRXQWULHVWKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG6ZHGHQGLVSOD\HGHTXDOLVDWLRQ LQHGXFDWLRQDO
RSSRUWXQLWLHVDQGLQUHVXOWVRILQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOPRELOLW\LQUHODWLRQWRRULJLQV
+RZHYHU %UHHQ DQG -RQVVRQ  IRXQG HTXDOLVDWLRQ LQ RWKHU UHVHDUFK
VWXGLHV FRQFHUQLQJ *HUPDQ\ +HQ] DQG 0DDV  -RQVVRQ HW DO 1996:
0OOHUDQG+DXQ)UDQFH9DOOHW,WDO\6KDYLWDQG:HVWHUEHHN
99
 6ZHGHQ -RQVVRQ DQG (ULNVRQ  WKH 1HWKHUODQGV 6LHEHQ HW DO,
 DQG SRVVLEO\ 1RUZD\ /LQGEHNN  %UHHQ DQG -RQVVRQ DOVR OLVW
H[DPSOHV RI ,UHODQG %UHHQ DQG :KHODQ  :KHODQ DQG /D\WH  DV
FRXQWULHVDQGVWXGLHVZKLFKFRQ¿UPDFRQVWDQWFRQQHFWLRQEHWZHHQEDFNJURXQG
DQGGHVWLQDWLRQVWDWXVZKLOH*HUEHUDQG+RXWIRXQGWKHUHZDVDPL[HG
SDWWHUQLQWKH6RYLHW8QLRQZLWKVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKH
VRFLDOEDFNJURXQGDQGHGXFDWLRQ

'XULQJWKHVRFLDOLVWSHULRGWKHFRXQWULHVRI(DVWHUQ(XURSHDWWHPSWHGWRUHGXFH
VRFLDO LQHTXDOLWLHV E\ PHDQV RI SRVLWLYH GLVFULPLQDWLRQ SROLFLHV IDYRXULQJ
ZRUNLQJFODVVFKLOGUHQHVSHFLDOO\LQHQUROOLQJWRXQLYHUVLWLHV*DQ]HERRPDQG
1LHXZEHHUWD5REHUWDQG%XNRGL6XSSRUWIRUVXFKPHDVXUHVFDQ
EHIRXQGDW:HVWHUQDQG:ULJKWZKRQRWHGWKDWVRFLDOÀXLGLW\UHPDLQHG
IDLUO\KLJKLQWKHIRUPHUVRFLDOLVWFRXQWULHVRI+XQJDU\DQG3RODQGDQGLQWKH
VRFLDOGHPRFUDWLFFRXQWULHVRI6ZHGHQDQG1RUZD\,QDGGLWLRQ*DQ]HERRPDQG
1LHXZEHHUWDFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHVWUHQJWKRIWKHFRQQHFWLRQEHWZHHQ
OHYHOVRISDUHQWDOHGXFDWLRQDQG\HDUVVSHQWE\FKLOGUHQLQHGXFDWLRQGHFUHDVHG
E\DWKLUGLQ%XOJDULDEHWZHHQDQGZKLOHLQ+XQJDU\DQGWKHIRUPHU
&]HFKRVORYDNLDWKHVWUHQJWKRIWKLVFRQQHFWLRQGHFUHDVHGE\PRUHWKDQRQHKDOI
$GGLWLRQDOO\,-6LHEHQDQG30GH*UDDIDIWHUDQDO\VLQJFRUUHODWLRQV
EHWZHHQVLEOLQJVLQVL[FRXQWULHVSXWIRUZDUGWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDWWKHLQFUHDVHLQ
WKHQXPEHURIVRFLDOLVWSDUOLDPHQWDU\UHSUHVHQWDWLYHVDQGWKHPRGHUQLVDWLRQRI
WKHVHVRFLHWLHVZHUHUHODWHGWRWKHJURZWKRIHTXDORSSRUWXQLWLHV,Q6ORYHQLD6
)OHUHDQG0/DYULþH[DPLQHGFRUUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQVRFLDOLQHTXDOLWLHV
VWUDWL¿FDWLRQDO UHODWLRQDO DQG RWKHU DQG HGXFDWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ DFDGHPLF
DFKLHYHPHQW7KHLUEDVLF¿QGLQJZDVWKHSDUDOOHOEHWZHHQUHGXFLQJLQHTXDOLWLHV
DQGLQFUHDVLQJWKHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQSDUWLFLSDWLQJLQHGXFDWLRQZKLOH
SDUHQWDOHGXFDWLRQZDVVKRZQWREHLQGLFDWLYHLQWHUPVRIFKLOGUHQ¶VHGXFDWLRQDO
DWWDLQPHQWV
+RZHYHU 0DWHMX  6]HOpQ\L DQG $VFKIIHQEXUJ  +H\QV DQG
%LHOHFNL*DQ]HERRPDQG1LHXZEHHUWDSURYLGHHYLGHQFHRIWKH
IDLOXUH RI VXFK HJDOLWDULDQ HGXFDWLRQDO SROLFLHV ERWK LQ (DVWHUQ DQG :HVWHUQ
(XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV VLQFH WKH LQÀXHQFH RI VRFLDO RULJLQV RQ HGXFDWLRQDO
DWWDLQPHQW LQ PRVW RI WKH FRXQWULHV REVHUYHG ZDV QRW UHGXFHG RYHU D SHULRG
RIWLPH7KLVLVVXSSRUWHGE\UHVHDUFKE\7LWPDHWDODQG*HUEHUDQG
+RXWLQWKHIRUPHU6RYLHW8QLRQZKRGLVFRYHUHGDGHFOLQHLQÀXLGLW\LQ
SRVW&RPPXQLVW5XVVLD+'RPDQVN\DQGDOVRIRXQGQRHYLGHQFH
RILQFUHDVHGVRFLDORSHQQHVVLQSRVWVRFLDOLVWFRXQWULHV,QVWHDGKHFRQFOXGHG
WKDWSDWWHUQVRIVRFLDOPRELOLW\IROORZWKHLURZQORJLFLHGRQRWQHFHVVDULO\
IROORZWKHORJLFRILQVWLWXWLRQDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ&KDQJHVLQPRELOLW\SULPDULO\
UHVXOWIURPWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIWKHVWUXFWXUHRIRFFXSDWLRQVLHWKHPDLQIRUFHLQ
FKDQJHVWRWKHVWUXFWXUHRIRFFXSDWLRQVLQ:HVWHUQFRXQWULHVDIWHUWKH6HFRQG

100
:RUOG:DUZDVHFRQRPLFSURJUHVVZKLOHLQ(DVWHUQ(XURSHLWZDVPDVVVSDWLDO
PRELOLW\ DFFRPSDQLHG E\ H[WHQVLYH LQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ 'RPDQVN\  
+HDVVXPHVWKDWLQWKHVHFRXQWULHVDEDQGRQLQJWKHVRFLDOLVWRUGHUOHGWR
DQLQFUHDVHLQLQHTXDOLW\LQWHUPVRILQFRPHLQZKLFKWKHHFRQRPLFUHVRXUFHV
RIWKHIDPLO\SOD\HGDVLJQL¿FDQWUROHLQGHWHUPLQLQJWKHGHVWLQDWLRQVWDWXVRI
LQGLYLGXDOV

)OHPPLQJDQG0LFNOHZULJKWVXSSRUWWKLVDVVXPSWLRQFODLPLQJWKDWDIWHU

WKHIDOORIVRFLDOLVWUHJLPHVWKHUHZDVDQLQFUHDVHLQHGXFDWLRQDOLQHTXDOLW\LQ
WKHFRXQWULHVRI(DVWHUQ(XURSH+RZHYHUDQHZVWXG\E\<DLVKDQG$QGHUVHQ
 H[SODLQV WKDW FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH 6(, DQG WKH GHVWLQDWLRQ
VWDWXVRILQGLYLGXDOVLVZHDNHVWLQIRUPHU&RPPXQLVWFRXQWULHVZKLFKLPSOLHV
WKH TXHVWLRQ RI WKH SRWHQWLDO UROH RI WKH VWDWH DV WKH UHJXODWRU RI HFRQRPLF
RSSRUWXQLWLHV7KHFXUUHQWHFRQRPLFFULVLVEULQJVEDFNLQWRIRFXVWKHLGHDWKDW
WKHVWDWHFDQLQÀXHQFHVRFLDOPRELOLW\E\WD[DWLRQRUVRFLDOSURJUDPPHVWKDWKHOS
LQGLYLGXDOVWRVKDSHWKHLULQLWLDWLYHVIRUJDLQLQJYDULRXVHGXFDWLRQDOGHJUHHV

6WXGLHVRILQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOPRELOLW\LQVRFLDOLVWDQGWUDQVLWLRQDO
period in Croatia

$ WUDGLWLRQ RI UHVHDUFK RQ LQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO PRELOLW\ LQ VRFLDOLVW &URDWLD ZDV
TXLWHZHOOGHYHORSHGEXWIHZVWXGLHVKDYHEHHQFRQGXFWHGRQVRFLDOPRELOLW\LQ
WUDQVLWLRQDO&URDWLD7KHUHVHDUFKWUDGLWLRQLQVRFLDOVWUDWL¿FDWLRQLQWKHIRUPHU
<XJRVODYLD FRPSULVHV UHVXOWV DQDO\VHG E\ 9 3VXOML]   0 /D]Lü
'6HNXOLü9$IULü$+RGåLü
DQG9/D\6LQFHWKHHDUO\VDQDO\VHVRIVRFLDOVWUDWL¿FDWLRQKDYH
EHHQIRXQGLQWKHZRUNRI9.DWXQDULü%.ULãWR¿ü'6HNXOLü
äâSRUHU$+RGåLüDQG,7RPLü.ROXGURYLüDQG$/HEXULü
'ýHQJLüDQG=0DOHQLFD7KHQHZHVWUHVHDUFKRQWKH
&URDWLDQ VRFLDO VWUXFWXUH ZDV OHDG E\ WKH UHVHDUFK WHDP RI ' 6HNXOLü DW WKH
,QVWLWXWHIRU6RFLDO5HVHDUFKLQ4
7KH VRFLRSROLWLFDO V\VWHP RI WKH IRUPHU <XJRVODYLD LQFOXGLQJ &URDWLD ZDV
GHFHQWUDOLVHGPRUHÀH[LEOHWKDQWKH6RYLHWPRGHODQGWRRNLQWRDFFRXQWVRPH
HOHPHQWV RI PDUNHW HFRQRP\ 0RUHRYHU WKH ULJKW WR XQLYHUVDO HGXFDWLRQ DQG
WKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKHHGXFDWLRQDOV\VWHPLQWHUPVRIERWKLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQG
FXUULFXODIRUPHGWKHIRXQGDWLRQVRQZKLFKDSURGXFWLYHVXFFHVVIXOV\VWHPRI
SURGXFWLRQ LQ VRFLDOLVW &URDWLD ZDV EXLOW$V D UHVXOW EHWWHU OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV
ZHUHFUHDWHGDVHDUO\DVWKHODWHVZKLOHWKH³VRIWERUGHU´SROLF\DOORZHG
SRSXODWLRQ PLJUDWLRQ DQG WKH ÀRZ RI FDSLWDO EDFN WR IDPLOLHV UHPDLQLQJ LQ
&URDWLD /D\   VXJJHVWHG WKDW HGXFDWLRQ ZDV ³DQ LQGLFDWRU RI WKH
TXDOLW\ RI OLIH LH SURVSHULW\ IRU ZKLFK ZH FDQ QRWH WKH UHODWLYHO\ KLJKHVW
 7KHUHVXOWVKDYHQRWEHHQSXEOLVKHG\HW

101
VWUHQJWKRIFRUUHODWLRQZLWKWKHKLJKHVWQXPEHURIRWKHULQGLFDWRUV7KXVWKH
TXDOLW\RIHGXFDWLRQKDGDPHGLXPVWUHQJWKRIFRUUHODWLRQZLWKWKHTXDOLW\RI
ZRUNLQJ FRQGLWLRQV OHLVXUH DQG UHFUHDWLRQ DQG KRXVLQJ ZKLOH WKHUH ZDV D
OHVVVLJQL¿FDQWFRUUHODWLRQZLWKWKHTXDOLW\RIKHDOWKDQGWKHUHZDVDOPRVWQR
FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHTXDOLW\RIGLHWDQGWKHTXDOLW\RIHGXFDWLRQ´

6HNXOLüDQG3XOML]SURYLGHDQRYHUYLHZLQWKHLUDQDO\VHV

RI WKH PDLQ FKDQJH GXULQJ WKH VRFLDOLVW SHULRG ± D FKDQJH IURP DJUDULDQ WR
LQGXVWULDO VRFLHW\ 3XOML] GHVFULEHV KRZ DJULFXOWXUDO KRXVHKROGV DV D UHVXOW
RI \RXQJHU JHQHUDWLRQV PLJUDWLQJ WR XUEDQ FHQWUHV ZHUH WUDQVIRUPHG LQWR
HLWKHU PL[HG KRXVHKROGV DJULFXOWXUDO DQG QRQDJULFXOWXUDO RU LQFUHDVLQJO\
HOGHUO\ KRXVHKROGV 3XOML]   6HNXOLü FODLPV WKDW GXULQJ WKLV WLPH
LQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ DQG GHYHORSPHQW ZHUH WKH FDXVH RI WKH KXJH WUDQVIHU RI WKH
SRSXODWLRQ IURP PDQXDO WR QRQPDQXDO RFFXSDWLRQV EXW DW WKH VDPH WLPH
PRELOLW\EHWZHHQWKHVHJURXSVZDVUHGXFHGEHFDXVHÄLWEHFDPHKDUGHUWRPRYH
XSZDUGVIURPPDQXDOWRQRQPDQXDOZRUNRUGRZQZDUGVIURPQRQPDQXDO
WR PDQXDO ZRUN³ ZKLOH WKH KLJKO\ TXDOL¿HG PDQXDO ZRUNHUV KDG D VOLJKW
WKRXJK SRVLWLYH VWLPXODWLRQ WR DGYDQFH WR QRQPDQXDO RFFXSDWLRQV 6HNXOLü
5HJXODWLRQVLQWKHIRUPHU<XJRVODYLDIURPWKHPLGVWRWKHODWH
VIDFLOLWDWHGKLJKHPSOR\PHQWDPRQJWKHSRSXODWLRQOHDGLQJVRPHVHFWRUV
WRJURZIDVWHUWKDQRWKHUVäâSRUHUOLVWVWKHPDLQGLUHFWLRQVRI
FKDQJHVLQHPSOR\PHQWLQWKHVRFLDOLVWSHULRGZKHQWKHQXPEHU
RIWKRVHHPSOR\HGGRXEOHGLQWKHVHFRQGDU\IURPWRDQGWHUWLDU\
IURPWRVHFWRUV7KHJURZWKLQGH[ZDVKLJKHVWIRUH[SHUWVDQG
WHFKQLFLDQVHFRQRPLVWVHQJLQHHUVWHDFKLQJVWDIIODZ\HUVSK\VLFLVWVFKHPLVWV
DQGPDWKHPDWLFLDQVDWWKHQXPEHURILQGXVWULDOZRUNHUVDQGIRUHPHQ
JUHZE\ZKLOHWKHWRWDOJURZWKRIWKHDFWLYHSRSXODWLRQZDV%\WKH
HQGRIWKHVWKHKLJKHVWOHYHORIHFRQRPLFJURZWKKDGEHHQDFKLHYHGDQG
HOHPHQWVRIIXWXUHHFRQRPLFDQGSROLWLFDOFULVHVZHUHDSSHDULQJRQWKHKRUL]RQ
%\ WKH HQG RI WKLV SHULRG WKH SURVSHULW\ GHVFULEHG E\ /D\  FROODSVHG
ZLWKLQ D IHZ \HDUV$V &URDWLD PRYHG LQWR D WUDQVLWLRQ SHULRG WKH VLWXDWLRQ
ZDVH[DFHUEDWHGE\WKHRXWEUHDNRIWKH+RPHODQG:DUWKHEUHDNZLWKSROLWLFDO
WUDGLWLRQDQGHFRQRPLFSUREOHPVZKLOHFKDQJHVWRWKHVRFLDOVWUDWL¿FDWLRQRI
WKH &URDWLDQ SRSXODWLRQ ZHUH UHODWHG WR WKH LQÀX[ RI UHIXJHHV DQG GLVSODFHG
SHUVRQV,QWKHWZHQW\\HDUVVLQFHLQGHSHQGHQFH&URDWLDKDVJRQHWKURXJKD
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQIURPDWRWDOLWDULDQWRDGHPRFUDWLFSROLWLFDOV\VWHPDZDUDQGWKH
RFFXSDWLRQRIWKHWHUULWRU\DQGZLGHUDQJLQJFKDQJHVWRWKHHFRQRPLFV\VWHP±
IURPSODQQHGHFRQRP\WRFDSLWDOLVP

$VIDUDVWKHSURIHVVLRQDOVWUXFWXUHLWVHOILVFRQFHUQHGWKHDJULFXOWXUDOVHFWRU
KDV EHHQ VLJQL¿FDQWO\ UHGXFHG LQ FRPSDULVRQ WR WKH VRFLDOLVW SHULRG ZKLOH
GHLQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQDIIHFWHGZRUNHUVZKRKDYHKDGWRFKDQJHWKHLUSURIHVVLRQV
HLWKHU WKH\ KDYH VXFFHHGHG LQ EHFRPLQJ VHOIHPSOR\HG VPDOO EXVLQHVVHV RU

102
WUDGLWLRQDO WUDGHV RU WKH\ KDYH EHHQ XQDEOH WR DGDSW DQG IRXQG WKHPVHOYHV
DPRQJ ORZHU UDQNHG RFFXSDWLRQV = 0DOHQLFD  KROGV WKDW ³GXH
WR FLUFXPVWDQFH SULPDULO\ GXH WR JUHDW IDLOXUHV LQ WKH SURFHVV RI HFRQRPLF
WUDQVLWLRQ DQG WKH KLJK FRVWV RI ZDU WKH VRFLDO VWDWXV RI WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH
PLGGOH FODVV KDV ZRUVHQHG LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH V LH LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKHLU
VLWXDWLRQGXULQJWKHVRFLDOLVP,WVKRXOGEHHPSKDVLVHGKRZHYHUWKDWGXULQJWKH
VSHULRGWKHPLGGOHFODVVZHUHRQO\MXVWEHLQJIRUPHGLQWKHVHQVHRIKRZ
WKH\H[LVWDQGIXQFWLRQLQWKHGHYHORSHG:HVWHUQVRFLHWLHV´7KLVKDVOHGWRWKH
IXUWKHUSRODULVDWLRQRI&URDWLDQVRFLHW\DQGWKHDFFHQWXDWLRQRILWVDV\PPHWULF
HFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOGHYHORSPHQW7KHWUHQGVZHKDYHPHQWLRQHGKDYHEHFRPH
PRUHVKDUSO\GH¿QHGDVDUHVXOWRIWKHLQÀXHQFHRIWKHUHFHQWJOREDOHFRQRPLF
FULVLVRQWKH&URDWLDQHFRQRP\

$QDO\VWV RI VRFLDO VWUXFWXUH KDYH DOVR GHDOW ZLWK WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI WKH QHZ
PDQDJHPHQWpOLWHQHZZRUNLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGFKDQJHVRQWKHODERXUPDUNHW
.ULãWR¿ü6HNXOLüDQGâSRUHUDQG+RGåLü'6HNXOLüDQGä
âSRUHUFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHQHZV\VWHPFDPHDERXW
E\PHDQVRIPDQDJHPHQWFDSLWDOLVPLQZKLFKWKHpOLWHPRYHVXSZDUGVZLWKRXW
SULYDWH RZQHUVKLS DQG LQ ZKLFK ³ WKH FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI FDSLWDOLVP ZLWKRXW D
FDSLWDOLVW FODVV LV QRWKLQJ QHZ«  LQ D SRVW&RPPXQLVW WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ WKH
LQWHOOLJHQWVLDLVDFRPSOH[DQGH[WUHPHO\KHWHURJHQHRXVJURXSFRQVLVWLQJRQ
WKHRQHKDQGRIIRUPHUGLVVLGHQWVRIDPRVWO\³OHIWLVW´RULHQWDWLRQDQGGLIIHUHQW
QDWLRQDOLVW IUDFWLRQV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKHUH LV WKH WHFKQRFUDWLF PDQDJHULDO
LQWHOOLJHQWVLDZLWKDPRGHUQLVWRULHQWDWLRQZKLFK¿QGVLWVHOILQGLIIHUHQWW\SHV
RI FRQÀLFW DQGRU FRRSHUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH GLVVLGHQWQDWLRQDOLVW LQWHOOLJHQWVLD
MXVW DV LW XVHG WR EH LQ FRQÀLFW RU FRRSHUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH SROLWLFDOEXUHDXFUDWLF
DGPLQLVWUDWLYH VWUDWXP GXULQJ VRFLDOLVP´ ,W LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR KLJKOLJKW KHUH D
¿QGLQJPDGHE\'ýHQJLüDQG%.ULVWR¿üWKDWLQDQHZJURXS
RI HQWUHSUHQHXUV IRUPHG ³WRSGRZQ´ WKRVH ZLWK QR XQLYHUVLW\ HGXFDWLRQ DUH
VLJQL¿FDQWO\PRUHUHSUHVHQWHG2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHEXVLQHVVpOLWHZKLFKZDV
HVWDEOLVKHGLQWKHWUDQVLWLRQIURPVRFLDOLVPWRFDSLWDOLVPFRQVLVWVRQDYHUDJHRI
DKLJKHUQXPEHURIKLJKO\HGXFDWHGSHRSOH
7R VXPPDULVH WKH WUHQGV REVHUYHG E\ RXU UHVHDUFK LQ WKH VRFLDOLVW DQG LQ WKH
WUDQVLWLRQDOSHULRGLQ&URDWLDWKHUHKDVEHHQDSHUVLVWHQWFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ
HGXFDWLRQDO OHYHO RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV DQG HGXFDWLRQDO OHYHO RI WKHLU PRWKHUV
DQGIDWKHUV:HPLJKWVD\WKDWHGXFDWLRQDOVHOIUHFUXLWPHQWLQWKHVRFLDOLVWDQG
WUDQVLWLRQDOSHULRGKDVVKRZQLWVHOIWREHFORVHO\UHODWHGWRPDWHUQDODQGSDWHUQDO
OHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQDQGLQWKHODWHUSHULRGZLWKWKHJHQGHURIUHVSRQGHQWVDV
ZHOO,QRWKHUZRUGVWKHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQSDUHQWDOOHYHOVRIHGXFDWLRQDQG
WKRVHRIWKHLUFKLOGUHQLVPRVWFOHDUO\VHHQLQWKHVHOIUHFUXLWPHQWRIWKHPRUH
KLJKO\ HGXFDWHG OHYHOV RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ DQG LQ WKH UHGXFWLRQ LQ PRELOLW\ RI
FKLOGUHQZKRVHSDUHQWVKDYHORZHURUYRFDWLRQDOHGXFDWLRQ

103
5. CONCLUSION

,Q DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH LQLWLDO DSSURDFK FRQFOXVLRQV FDQ EH PDGH EDVHG RQ
WKHLQGLYLGXDOPRGHOSURSRVHGE\-RKQVWRQ*DQ]HERRPDQG7UHLPDQ
7KH PRGHO ZDV FRQ¿UPHG E\ WKH UHVXOWV LH LW ZDV FRQ¿UPHG WKDW QRW
RQO\WKHIDWKHUV¶EXWDOVRWKHPRWKHUV¶HGXFDWLRQKDGDVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQW
LQÀXHQFHRQFKLOGUHQ¶VHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQW,WLVVRPHKRZPRUHGLI¿FXOWWR
PDNHFOHDUFRQFOXVLRQRQDGRSWLQJDQRWKHUWKHRUHWLFDOIUDPHZRUNVLQWKLVZRUN
PRGHUQLVDWLRQWKHRU\7UHLPDQDQGSROLWLFDOWKHRU\3DUNLQ2I
FRXUVHLWVKRXOGEHUHPHPEHUHGWKDWWKHVHWKHRULHVEHORQJWRWKHUHDOPRILGHDO
W\SHV 7KXV LQWHUYHQLQJ YDULDEOHV ZKLFK PD\ VWUHQJWKHQ RU ZHDNHQ SULPDU\
LQÀXHQFHVVKRXOGDOVREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWZKHQFRQVLGHULQJWKHSURJUHVVRI
DQLQGLYLGXDOWKURXJKWKHHGXFDWLRQV\VWHPDQGKLVWUDQVLWLRQIURPWKHHGXFDWLRQ
V\VWHPWRWKHODERXUPDUNHW

+RZHYHU HOHPHQWV ZKLFK FRQ¿UP ERWK WKHRULHV LQ VRFLDOLVW &URDWLD FDQ EH
IRXQGLQWKHIROORZLQJFRQFOXVLRQVPDGHE\0/D]Lü³3DUW\
PHPEHUVKLSSOD\VDGHFLVLYHUROHLQSURPRWLRQLQWKHSROLWLFDOOHDGHUVKLSEXW
IRUPDOKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQKDVDOVRDVVXPHGDPRUHPDUNHGVLJQL¿FDQFH>«@
7KH SRWHQWLDO IRU PDNLQJ D GLUHFW OHDS IURP EHLQJ D ZRUNHU WR D SRVLWLRQ LQ
WKH UXOLQJ FODVV KDV EHFRPH PDUJLQDO ± QDUURZHG GRZQ RQO\ WR WKH FODVV RI
SROLWLFDOOHDGHUV±DQGKLJKO\VHOHFWLYH¿UVWWKURXJKWKHSDUW\PHPEHUVKLSDQG
WKHQ HYHQ PRUH VWULFWO\ WKURXJK WKH XQSURIHVVLRQDO DFWLYLWLHV LQ WKH &HQWUDO
&RPPLWWHH´ ,Q WUDQVLWLRQDO &URDWLD IRU PHWKRGRORJLFDO UHDVRQV VLPLODU
FRQFOXVLRQVDERXWWKHHOHPHQWVRIWKHSROLWLFDOWKHRU\DUHQRWSRVVLEOHEXWZH
FDQUHIHUWRLQGLYLGXDOUHSRUWVRIFOLHQWHOLVPQHSRWLVPDQGFRUUXSWLRQDORQJ
ZLWKWKHULVHRIWKH³SROLWLFDOO\GHVLUDEOH´WRSULYLOHJHGSRVLWLRQV&RQ¿UPLQJ
WKHVH WKHRULHV LQ WKH WUDQVLWLRQDO SHULRG UHTXLUHV QHZ UHVHDUFK LQ ZKLFK WKH
FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRISDUW\PHPEHUVKLSZRXOGEHLQFOXGHGLQDQDQDO\VLVRISDWWHUQV
RIVRFLDOPRELOLW\'XHWRFKDQJHVLQWKHFKDUDFWHURIWKHSROLWLFDORUGHULHWKH
WUDQVLWLRQIURPVRFLDOLVPWRFDSLWDOLVPZHZRXOGH[SHFWFKDQJHLQZKLFKVWDWXV
DWWDLQPHQWZRXOGKDYHJUHDWHUZHLJKWWKDQDVFULSWLRQRIVWDWXVDQGWKLVZRXOG
PHDQ WKDW WKH PRGHUQLVDWLRQ WKHRU\ ZRXOG EH FRQ¿UPHG WR D JUHDWHU H[WHQW
$W WKH VDPH WLPH ZH VKRXOG EHDU LQ PLQG WKDW SURFHVVHV ZKLFK KLQGHU WKH
GHYHORSPHQWRIGHPRFUDF\DQGWKHHI¿FLHQWIXQFWLRQLQJRIWKHPDUNHWHFRQRP\
DUH VWLOO DIIHFWLQJ &URDWLDQ SURVSHULW\ ZKHUH WKH DVFULSWLRQ RI VWLOO SOD\V D
UHODWLYHO\ VLJQL¿FDQW UROH )LQDOO\ LQ FRQVLGHULQJ ZKHWKHU WKH PRGHUQLVDWLRQ
RUSROLWLFDOWKHRU\ZLOOSUHYDLOZHPXVWVD\WKDWLQWKHFDVHRI&URDWLDWKHUH
LVQRFRQWUDGLFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHWZRWKHRULHVVLQFHSROLWLFDOFKDQJHVKDYHOHG
WR WKH UHVWUXFWXULQJ RI LQGXVWU\ DQG HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW 2XU ¿QGLQJV DUH
VXSSRUWHGE\FRPSDUDWLYHUHVHDUFKFDUULHGRXWE\6]HOpQ\DQG7UHLPDQ
LQ VL[ SRVWVRFLDOLVW FRXQWULHV DQG /XLMN[ HW DO  LQ +XQJDU\ ZKLFK
VKRZHGWKHH[LVWHQFHRIVLJQL¿FDQWGLIIHUHQFHVLQVRFLDOPRELOLW\LQ%XOJDULD

104
WKH&]HFK5HSXEOLF+XQJDU\3RODQG5XVVLDDQG6ORYDNLDVXSSRUWHGE\ERWK
WKHPRGHUQLVDWLRQ and SROLWLFDOWKHRU\+RZHYHUZHPXVWHPSKDVLVHWKDWLQ
&URDWLDWKHUHVXOWVRIRXUUHVHDUFKVSHDNPRUHLQIDYRXURIWKHUHGXFHGLQÀXHQFH
RI VWDWXV DVFULSWLRQ WKDQ WKH LQFUHDVHG VLJQL¿FDQFH RI VWDWXV DWWDLQPHQW
0RUHRYHU D UHGXFWLRQ LQ VRFLDO PRELOLW\ KDV EHHQ UHJLVWHUHG LQ WKH VHQVH RI
DQLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGWRZDUGVVHOIUHFUXLWPHQWLQWKHXSSHUHGXFDWLRQDOHFKHORQV
DQGWKHSHUVLVWHQFHRIVHOIUHFUXLWPHQWDPRQJWKHORZHUTXDOL¿HGSRSXODWLRQ
+RZHYHU DW WKH VDPH WLPH XSZDUG PRELOLW\ KDV EHHQ UHJLVWHUHG DPRQJ WKH
FKLOGUHQRISDUHQWVZLWKYRFDWLRQDOTXDOL¿FDWLRQVZKRDUHQRZDOVRUHFUXLWHGWR
DODUJHH[WHQWLQIRXU\HDUVHFRQGDU\DQGXQLYHUVLW\HGXFDWLRQ
,QWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO VRFLDO PRELOLW\ LQ IRUPHU VRFLDOLVW FRXQWULHV ZLWK WKH
H[FHSWLRQRI6ORYHQLDLVUHODWLYHO\ORZ,DQHOOLVDQGWKHVDPHLVWUXH
RI &URDWLD ,W LV WR EH H[SHFWHG WKDW WKLV WUHQG ZLOO FRQWLQXH IRU DV %XUXãLü
%DEDURYLü DQG 0DUNRYLü   H[SODLQ ³$V WKH OHYHO RI HGXFDWLRQ RI
HLWKHUSDUHQWLQFUHDVHVWKHHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWRISXSLOVLQFUHDVHVLQDOOWKH
DUHDVRIFODVVWHDFKLQJH[DPLQHG7KXVWKHUHLVDFOHDUWUHQGLQWKHLQFUHDVHRI
DYHUDJHSXSLODWWDLQPHQWLQWKHIXQFWLRQRIWKHHGXFDWLRQDOOHYHORIERWKSDUHQWV
0RUHRYHUWKHUHZDVQRWDVLQJOHFDVHLQZKLFKDJURXSRISXSLOVZKRVHSDUHQWV
KDG DWWDLQHG D ORZHU OHYHO RI HGXFDWLRQ DFKLHYHG KLJKHU DYHUDJH UHVXOWV WKDQ
D JURXS RI SXSLOV ZKRVH SDUHQWV KDG DWWDLQHG WKH KLJKHU OHYHO RI HGXFDWLRQ´
7KLV FRQFOXVLRQ LV VWUHQJWKHQHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW DOWKRXJK &URDWLD KDV RQO\
 RI KLJKO\ HGXFDWHG FLWL]HQV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH SUHOLPLQDU\ UHVXOWV RI WKH
FHQVXVWKHQHZHVWUHVHDUFKGDWDRQVWXGHQWV5VKRZWKDWRIVWXGHQWV
KDG IDWKHUV DQG  PRWKHUV ZLWK WHUWLDU\ HGXFDWLRQ ZKLOH RQO\  RI
WKHVWXGHQWVKDGIDWKHUVDQGPRWKHUVZLWKORZHUTXDOL¿FDWLRQV:HFDQ
FRQFOXGH WKDW GXH WR WKH VWUHQJWKHQLQJ RI VHOIUHFUXLWPHQW LQ WKH ORZHVW DQG
KLJKHVW FDWHJRULHV RI HGXFDWLRQ WKH SURFHVV RI VRFLDO VWUDWL¿FDWLRQ LV JHWWLQJ
PRUHSURQRXQFHGLQ&URDWLD

 3URMHFWFRQGXFWHGLQE\WKH,QVWLWXWHIRU6RFLDO5HVHDUFKRQDVDPSOHRI&URDWLDQ
VWXGHQWV

105
REFERENCES

$IULü 9  µ.RQFHSW GUXãWYHQH VWUXNWXUH L VWUXNWXUDOQD DQDOL]D X VRFLRORJLML¶ 5HYLMD ]D
VRFLRORJLMX
%ODX30'XQFDQ2'7KH$PHULFDQ2FFXSDWLRQDO6WUXFWXUH:LOH\DQG6RQV1HZ
<RUN
%UHHQ5±(G6RFLDOPRELOLW\LQ(XURSH2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV1HZ<RUN
%UHHQ 5 /XLMN[ 5  µ6RFLDO PRELOLW\ LQ (XURSH  DQG ¶ LQ %UHHQ 5 (G
6RFLDOPRELOLW\LQ(XURSH2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV1HZ<RUN
%UHHQ5-RQVVRQ-2µ,QHTXDOLW\RI2SSRUWXQLW\LQ&RPSDUDWLYH3HUVSHFWLYH5HFHQW
5HVHDUFKRQ(GXFDWLRQDO$WWDLQPHQWDQG6RFLDO0RELOLW\¶$QQX5HY6RFLRO 31: 223-
243.
%XUXãLü-%DEDURYLü70DUNRYLü1µ.ROLNRGDOHNRSDGDMXMDEXNHRGVWDEOD"2GQRV
REUD]RYQLKSRVWLJQXüDGMHFHLREUD]RYQHUD]LQHQMLKRYLKURGLWHOMD¶'UXãWYHQDLVWUDåLYDQMD

ýHQJLü '  0HQDGåHUVNRSRGX]HWQLþND HOLWD L PRGHUQL]DFLMD UD]YRMQD LOL UHQWLMHUVND
HOLWD",QVWLWXWGUXãWYHQLK]QDQRVWL,YR3LODU=DJUHE
'RPDQVNL +  µ0DMRU VRFLDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV DQG VRFLDO PRELOLW\ WKH FDVHRI WUDQVLWLRQ
WR DQG IURP FRPPXQLVP LQ (DVWHUQ (XURSH¶ 6RFLDO 6FLHQFH ,QIRUPDWLRQ ± 6XU /HV ±
6FLHQFHV6RFLDOHV
'RPDQVNL +  µ7KH 3ROLVK 7UDQVIRUPDWLRQ 6WUXFWXUDO &KDQJHV DQG 1HZ 7HQVLRQV¶
(XURSHDQ-RXUQDORI6RFLDO7KHRU\ ±
)OHPPLQJ-0LFNOHZULJKW-,QFRPH'LVWULEXWLRQ(FRQRPLF6\VWHPVDQG7UDQVLWLRQ
,QQRFHQWL2FFDVLRQDO3DSHUV(FRQRPLF3ROLF\6HULHVLRSHSV81,&(),QQRFHQWL
5HVHDUFK&HQWUH
)OHUH6/DYULþ0µ6RFLDO,QHTXLW\DQG(GXFDWLRQDO([SDQVLRQLQ6ORYHQLD¶(GXFDWLRQDO
6WXGLHV
*DQ]HERRP + % * 1LHXZEHHUWD 3  µ$FFHVV WR HGXFDWLRQ LQ VL[ (DVWHUQ (XURSHDQ
FRXQWULHVEHWZHHQDQG5HVXOWVRIDFURVVQDWLRQDOVXUYH\¶&RPPXQLVWDQG
3RVW&RPPXQLVW6WXGLHV±
*HUEHU73+RXW0µ(GXFDWLRQDO6WUDWL¿FDWLRQLQ5XVVLDGXULQJWKH6RYLHW3HULRG¶
$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI6RFLRORJ\ 101: 611-60.
*HUEHU73+RXW0µ7LJKWHQLQJ8S'HFOLQLQJ&ODVV0RELOLW\GXULQJ5XVVLDµV0DUNHW
7UDQVLWLRQ¶$PHULFDQ6RFLRORJLFDO5HYLHZ±
*ROXE % .ULãWR¿ü % ýHQJLü ' ± ('V  =QDQVWYHQH L SULYUHGQH HOLWH ,QVWLWXW ]D
GUXãWYHQDLVWUDåLYDQMD=DJUHE
+D\HV%&0LOOHU5/µ,QWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO0RELOLW\LQWKH5HSXEOLFRI,UHODQG'RHV
*HQGHU0DNHD'LIIHUHQFH"¶7KH6RFLRORJLFDO4XDUWHUO\9ROXPH 
+H\QV % %LHOHFNL ,  µ(GXFDWLRQDO ,QHTXDOLWLHV LQ SRVWZDU 3RODQG¶ LQ 6KDYLW <
%ORVVIHOG +3 (GV 3HUVLVWHQW ,QHTXDOLW\ &KDQJLQJ (GXFDWLRQDO $WWDLQPHQW LQ
7KLUWHHQ&RXQWULHV :HVWYLHZ3UHVV%RXOGHU
+RGåLü$µ'UXãWYHQDVWUXNWXUDLNYDOLWHWDåLYRWD¶6RFLRORJLMD

106
+RGåLü$µ6RFLMDOQDVWUXNWXUDLPRELOQRVWVHRVNRJVWDQRYQLãWYD¶6RFLRORJLMDVHOD

,DQQHOOL &  µ3DUHQWDO (GXFDWLRQ DQG <RXQJ 3HRSOH¶V (GXFDWLRQDO DQG /DERXU 0DUNHW
2XWFRPHV$&RPSDULVRQDFURVV(XURSH¶:RUNLQJ3DSHU1U0DQQKHLPHU=HQWUXP
IU(XURSlLVFKH6R]LDOIRUVFKXQJ
-RKQVWRQ$'*DQ]HERRP+%*7UHLPDQ'- 0RWKHU¶VDQG)DWKHU¶V,QÀXHQFHV
RQ(GXFDWLRQDO6WDWXV$WWDLQPHQW3DSHUSUHVHQWHGDWWKH&RQIHUHQFH³:HOIDUH6WDWHVDQG
,QHTXDOLWLHV´RI5HVHDUFK&RPPLWWHHRQ6RFLDO6WUDWL¿FDWLRQDQG6RFLDO0RELOLW\RI
WKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO6RFLRORJLFDO$VVRFLDWLRQ2VOR1RUZD\0D\
.DOPLMQ 0  µ0RWKHUµV 2FFXSDWLRQDO 6WDWXV DQG &KLOGUHQµV 6FKRROLQJ¶ $PHULFDQ
6RFLRORJLFDO5HYLHZ59: 257-275.
.DWXQDULü9µ7ULOLFDNXOWXUH¶'UXãWYHQDLVWUDåLYDQMD
.RUXSS6(0RWKHUDQGWKH3URFHVVRI6RFLDO6WUDWL¿FDWLRQ8WUHFKW8QLYHUVLW\8WUHFKW
.RUXSS6(*DQ]HERRP+%*9DQGHU/LSSH7µ'R0RWKHUV0DWWHU"$&RPSDULVRQ
RI0RGHOVRIWKH,QÀXHQFHRI0RWKHUµVDQG)DWKHUµV(GXFDWLRQDODQG2FFXSDWLRQDO6WDWXV
RQ&KLOGUHQµV(GXFDWLRQDO$WWDLQPHQW¶4XDOLW\DQG4XDQWLW\
.ULãWR¿ü%0DQDJHULLPRGHUQLWHW±LQ*ROXE%.ULãWR¿ü%ýHQJLü'±('V
=QDQVWYHQHLSULYUHGQHHOLWH,QVWLWXW]DGUXãWYHQDLVWUDåLYDQMD=DJUHE
/D\ 9 ± (G  6RFLMDOQD VWUXNWXUD L NYDOLWHWD åLYRWD X +UYDWVNRM ,QVWLWXW ]D GUXãWYHQD
LVWUDåLYDQMD6YHXþLOLãWDX=DJUHEX=DJUHE
/D\ 9  µ.YDOLWHWD åLYRWD GUXãWYHQLK VORMHYD X +UYDWVNRM¶ LQ /D\ 9 (G 6RFLMDOQD
VWUXNWXUD L NYDOLWHWD åLYRWD X +UYDWVNRM ,QVWLWXW ]D GUXãWYHQD LVWUDåLYDQMD 6YHXþLOLãWD X
=DJUHEX=DJUHE
/D]Lü05HSURGXNFLMDGUXãWYHQLKJUXSDX+UYDWVNRM,QVWLWXW]DGUXãWYHQDLVWUDåLYDQMD
6YHXþLOLãWDX=DJUHEX=DJUHE
/D]Lü 0  8 VXVUHW ]DWYRUHQRP GUXãWYX .ODVQD UHSURGXNFLMD X VRFLMDOL]PX 1DSULMHG
=DJUHE
/XLMN[ 5 5yEHUW 3 GH *UDDI 3 0 *DQ]HERRP + % *  µ&KDQJHV LQ 6WDWXV
$WWDLQPHQW LQ +XQJDU\ EHWZHHQ  DQG  7UHQGOHVV ÀXFWXDWLRQ RI V\VWHPLF
FKDQJH"¶(XURSHDQ6RFLHWLHV 
0DOHQLFD=2JOHGLRKUYDWVNRPGUXãWYX3ULORJVRFLRORJLMLKUYDWVNRJGUXãWYD *ROGHQ
0DUNHWLQJ7HKQLþNDNQMLJD=DJUHE
0DWHMX 3  µ)URP (TXDOLW\ WR (TXLW\"7KH &]HFK 5HSXEOLF EHWZHHQ7ZR ,GHRORJLHV RI
'LVWULEXWLYH-XVWLFH¶&]HFK6RFLRORJLFDO5HYLHZ 1: 251-276.
3DUNLQ, F. &ODVVLQHTXDOLW\DQGSROLWLFDORUGHU0DF*LEERQDQG.HH/RQGRQ
3XOML] 9  (NVRGXV SROMRSULYUHGQLND ,QVWLWXW ]D GUXãWYHQD LVWUDåLYDQMD 6YHXþLOLãWD X
=DJUHEX=DJUHE
3XOML]96RFLMDOQDUHSURGXNFLMDPMHãRYLWLKGRPDüLQVWDYD±LQ0MHãRYLWDGRPDüLQVWYD
L VDOMDFLUDGQLFL X -XJRVODYLML ,QVWLWXW ]D GUXãWYHQD LVWUDåLYDQMD 6YHXþLOLãWD X =DJUHEX
=DJUHE
5yEHUW3%XNRGL(µ&KDQJHVLQ,QWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO&ODVV0RELOLW\LQ+XQJDU\
¶LQ%UHHQ5(G6RFLDO0RELOLW\LQ(XURSH2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV2[IRUG


107
6HNXLOü'µ6RFLRSURIHVLRQDOQDPRELOQRVWX-XJRVODYLML¶6RFLRORJLMD
6HNXOLü '  µ2WYDUDQMH L ]DWYDUDQMH GUXãWYHQH VWUXNWXUH MHGDQ SRNXãDM PMHUHQMD SUHNR
SRGDWDND]DWULJHQHUDFLMH¶5HYLMD]DVRFLRORJLMX
6HNXOLü'6WUXNWXUHQDL]PDNXNODVHVXNRELLVRFLMDOQDPRELOQRVW6RFLRORãNRGUXãWYR
+UYDWVNH=DJUHE
6HNXOLü ' âSRUHU äHOMN  µ)RUPLUDQMH SRGX]HWQLþNH HOLWH X +UYDWVNRM¶ 5HYLMD ]D
VRFLRORJLMX 
6KDYLW<%ORVVIHOG+3±(GV3HUVLVWHQW,QHTXDOLW\&KDQJLQJ(GXFDWLRQDO$WWDLQPHQW
LQ7KLUWHHQ&RXQWULHV:HVWYLHZ3UHVV%RXOGHU
6LHEHQ,-GH*UDDI30µ7HVWLQJWKH0RGHUQL]DWLRQ+\SRWKHVLVDQGWKH6RFLDOLVW
,GHRORJ\ +\SRWKHVLV D &RPSDUDWLYH 6LEOLQJ $QDO\VLV RI (GXFDWLRQDO $WWDLQPHQW DQG
2FFXSDWLRQDO6WDWXV¶%ULWLVK-RXUQDORI6RFLRORJ 52: 441-467.
6]HOpQ\L 6$VFKDIIHQEXUJ .  µ,QHTXDOLWLHV LQ (GXFDWLRQDO 2SSRUWXQLW\ LQ +XQJDU\¶
LQ 6KDYLW < %ORVVIHOG +3 (GV 3HUVLVWHQW ,QHTXDOLW\ &KDQJLQJ (GXFDWLRQDO
$WWDLQPHQWLQ7KLUWHHQ&RXQWULHV:HVWYLHZ3UHVV%RXOGHU
6]HOpQ\L,7UHLPDQ'-6RFLDO6WUDWL¿FDWLRQLQ(DVWHUQ(XURSHDIWHU*HQHUDO
3RSXODWLRQ6XUYH\>05')@8&/$'HSDUWPHQWRI6RFLRORJ\/RV$QJHOHV
âSRUHUä6RFLRORJLMDSURIHVLMD6RFLRORãNRGUXãWYR+UYDWVNH=DJUHE
7LWPD07XPD%5RRVPD.1µ(GXFDWLRQDVD)DFWRURI,QWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO0RELOLW\
LQ6RYLHW6RFLHW\¶(XURSHDQ6RFLRORJLFDO5HYLHZ
7RPLü.ROXGURYLü,/HEXULü$6RFLRORJLMDåLYRWQRJVWLOD-HVHQVNLL7XUN=DJUHE
7UHLPDQ'RQDOG-,QGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDQG6RFLDO6WUDWL¿FDWLRQ6RFLRORJLFDO,QTXLU\ 40:
207-234.
:HVWHUQ 0:ULJKW ( 2  µ7KH SHUPHDELOLW\ RI FODVV ERXQGDULHV WR LQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO
PRELOLW\ DPRQJ PHQ LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV &DQDGD 1RUZD\ DQG 6ZHGHQ¶ $PHULFDQ
6RFLRORJLFDO5HYLHZ59: 606-629.
<DLVK0$QGHUVHQ5µ6RFLDO0RELOLW\LQPRGHUQVRFLHWLHV7KHUROHRIHFRQRPLF
DQGSROLWLFDOFRQWH[W¶6RFLDO6FLHQFH5HVHDUFK
:HEVRXUFHV7KH&URDWLDQ%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFVKWWSZZZG]VKU

108