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CONTENTS

&
Foreword ............... . . . . ................ I X

Preface ............... . . . . ................ xi

Serninar Programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................ x i ii

Listof Participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................ x v ii

PART I - ANALYSIS OF OBSERVATIONS

Chapter

1 STREAMLINE AND ISOTACH ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

1.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2 The t é c h n i q u e s o f s t r e a r n l i n e a n a l y s i s . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3 Suggested f u r t h e r r e a d i n g o n s t r e a r n l i n e and i s o t a c h a n a l y s i s 6

2 VORTICITY, DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS . . . . . . . . . 7

2.1 lntroduction ........................ 7
2.2 An i n t u i t i v e a p p r o a c h t o t h e c o n c e p t s o f d i v e r g e n c e and
vorticity ......................... 7
2.3 Mathernatical theory .................... 9
2.4 A s u b j e c t i v e ( g r a p h i c a l ) rnethod f o r d e t e r m i n i n g v o r t i c i t y
and d i v e r g e n c e f i e l d s ................... 11
2.5 A s e m i - o b j e c t i v e ( n u m e r i c a l ) method f o r t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f
f i e l d s o f v o r t i c i t y , d i v e r g e n c e and v e r t i c a l motion . . . . 15
2.6 An o b j e c t i v e rnethod f o r t h e r o u t i n e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e rnean
v o r t i c i t y , d i v e r g e n c e and v e r t i c a l m o t i o n o v e r an a r e a
c o v e r e d b y an u p p e r a i r s t a t i o n n e t w o r k . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.7 The i n t e r p r e t a t i o n and use o f v o r t i c i t y , d i v e r g e n c e and
v e r t i c a l rnotion f i e l d s i n o p e r a t i o n a l f o r e c a s t i n g i n t h e
tropics .......................... 19

3 PRACTICAL EXAMPLES, INCLUOING INTERPRETATION OF SATELLITE DATA . . 22

3.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
3.2 The w e a t h e r o f West A f r i c a 9 - 1 1 Septernber 1974 . . . . . . . 22
3.3 The d a t a used i n t h e p r a c t i c a 1 a n a l y s i s s e s s i o n s . . . . . . 23
3.4 . . . . . . . . . . . .
The s t r e a m l i n e and i s o t a c h a n a l y s e s . 23
3.5 The v o r t i c i t y and divergence analyses . . . . . . . . . . . 33
3.6 lnterpretation o f s a t e l l i t e data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Appendix: A computer prograrn t o compute d i v e r g e n c e and v o r t i c i t y
d i s t r i b u t i o n s frorn w i n d ( s t r e a r n l i n e and i s o t a c h ) a n a l y s e s . . 37
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I V

PART I I . WtHTHER SYSTEMS OVER AFRICA

Chapter .
Page

1 THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY WAVES ON THE PATTERNS OF P R E C l P l T A T l O N

IN TROPICAL NORTHERN AFRICA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
1.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

1.2 The surnmer c l i m a t e o f t r o p i c a l n o r t h e r n A f r i c a . . . . . . . . 42

1.3 The d i u r n a 1 v a r i a t i o n s o f c o n v e c t i v e c l o u d s and p r e c i p i t a t i o n . 48
1.4 The o b s e r v e d s t r u c t u r e o f t h e s y n o p t i c - s c a l e waves . . . . . . 51
1.5 O b s e r v a t i o n a l s t u d i e s o f t h e o r i g i n o f t h e A f r i c a n waves . . . 60

1.6 R e s u l t s frorn n u r n e r i c a l rnodels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

1.7 The c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e l o c a t i o n o f deep c o n v e c t i o n and
thewavetroughs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
1.8 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

2 STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

2.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.2 Areas o f c y c l o n e f o r m a t i o n and t h e i r o r i g i n s t a t i s t i c s . . . . 72
2.3 P r i m a r y genesis pararneters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
2.4 L i f e cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
2.5 Structure o f the t r o p i c a l cyclone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
2.6 Situation over A f r i c a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

PART I I l . FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

S E C T I O K 1 . TECHNIQUES IN PRESENT OPERATIONAL U S E

1 FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FOR WEST AFRICA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

1.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
1.2 Techniques of f o r e c a s t i n g f o r West A f r i c a n r e g i o n . . . . . . . 105

2. FORECASTING TECHNIQUES I N EAST AFRICA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

2.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

2.2 A n a l y s i s Techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

2.3 Flow Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

2.4 Practica1 Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
2.5 G e n e r a l r e m a r k s on w e a t h e r f o r e c a s t i n g i n East A f r i c a . . . . . 143

3. THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

3.1 I n t r o d u c t o r y remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
3.2 Tropical disturbance i n t e n s i t y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
3.3 Cyclone recurvature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
3.4 Cyclone track prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
INDEX

SECTION 2 . NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

Chapter

4 THE FUNDAMENTALS OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION AND THE

FILTERED BAROTROPIC MODEL ...................... 166
4.1 lntroduction ......................... 166
4.2.1 Vorticity and v o r t i c i t y a d v e c t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
4.2.2 The stream f u n c t i o n . C a l c u l a t i o n o f the v e l o c i t y f i e l d from
.....................
the v o r t i c i t y f i e l d 167
4.3 The b a s i c dynamics o f t h e b a r o t r o p i c model . . . . . . . . . . 171
4.4 Some p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e b a r o t r o p i c f l o w s . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
4.5 Numerical p r e d i c t i o n techniques . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
5 PRlMlTlVE EQUATION MODELS AND THElR APPLICATION TO THE T R O P I C S . . . 193
5.1 The one-leve1 p r i m i t i v e e q u a t i o n model ............ 193
5.2 Numerical p r e d i c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
5.3 P h y s i c a l processes r e l e v a n t t o t h e A f r i c a n i a n d mas5 . . . . . 200
5.4 P r e d Í c t i o n w i t h a m u l t i l e v e l p r e d i c t i o n model . . . . . . . . . 210
Appendix: ............................. 212

SECTION 3 . CLIMATOLOGY AS A FORECASTING AID

6 USE OF CLIMATOLOGY AS A FORECASTING A I D .I . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215

6.1 Background and p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n o f t h e c l i m a t o l o g y o f i n t e r -
tropical Africa ........................ 215
6.2 Climatology as a f o r e c a s t i n g a l d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217

7 USE OF CLIMATOLOGY AS A FORECASTING A l 0 .I I . . . . . . . . . . . . 220

7.1 Checking and s t o r a g e o f s u r f a c e d a t a i n ASECNA ........ 220
7.2 An example o f t h e use o f c l i m a t o l o g y i n medium range
forecasting ......................... 221

PART I V . METEOROLOGY APPLIED TO THE NEEDS OF AGRICULTURE AND HYDROLOGY

1 METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTING FOR AGRICULTURE ............. 227
1.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
1.2 The f o r e c a s t requirements o f u s e r s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
1.3 F o r e c a s t s based on l o n g s e r i e s o f d a t a . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
1.4 Day-to-day f o r e c a s t s and t h e s h o r t - t e r m response o f p l a n t
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
g r o w t h t o weather c o n d i t i o n s 228
1.5 Long p e r i o d f o r e c a s t s ..................... 228
1.6 F i e l d s o f a p p i i c a t i o n of meteorological forecasts i n
agriculture ........................ 229
1.7 The s o i l water balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
1.8 Rainfall ........................... 230
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vi

Chapter

1 1.9 Evaporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.10 Ternperature. hurnidity. wind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.11 Solar r a d i a t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.12 S a t e l l i t e data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 METEOROLOGICAL FORECACTING FOR HYDROLOGISTS
2.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . 233
2.2 The h y d r o l o g i c a l c y c l e . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . 233
2.3 The rnain c o n c e r n s o f t h e h y d r o l o g i s t . . . .
. . . . . . . . . 234
2.4 Forecasting o f hydrological variables . . .
. . . . . . . . . 7-34
2.5 Meteorological f o r e c a s t s o f importance t o h y d r o l o g i s t s . . . . 235
2.6 Classification of hydrological forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . 236
2.7 Data requirements o f h y d r o - l o g i c a l f o r e c a s t i n g. . . . . . . . 237
2.8 Service requirernents for h y d r o l o g i c a l forecasting . . . . . . 237
2.9 Surnrnary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

PART V . THE WEST AFRICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (WAMEX)

THE WCST PFPICAN MONSOON EXPERIMENT (WAMEX) . . . . . . . . . . . .

.
1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2. S c i e n t i f i c o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e West A f r i c a n Monsoon S t u d y . . .
3. W i n t e r problerns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PART V I . SPECIALIST CONTRIBUTIONS

SECTION 1 . GENERAL

1 A STUDY OF "SYNOPTIC TYPES" OF THE AFRICAN EASTERLY PERTURBATION . . 255

1.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
1.2 Evolution o f "synoptic types" of the e a s t e r l y perturbation . . 255
1.3 Characterictic f e a t u r e c o f t h e rnain s y n o p t i c t y p e c . . . . 256
1.4 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f s i g n i f i c a n t weather associated w i t h s y n o p t i c
types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
1.5 Surnmary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270

2 NUMERICAL STUDY OF CONVECTIVE CUMULUS IN THE WET TROPICAL

ENVIRONNENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
2.1 The c l o u d rnodel assurnptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
2.2 The m a t h e m a t i c a l e q u a t i o n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
2.3 The n u m e r i c a l r e s u l t s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
2.4 Comparison o f rnodel r e s u l t s w i t h o b s e r v a t i o n . . . . . . . . . 282
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Chapter pase
3 NUMERICAL PREOICTION MOOELS UNDER OEVELOPMENT AT THE REGIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE. ORAN .....................
3.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.2 B a s i c f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.3 The b a r o t r o p i c model .....................
3.4 The b a r o c l i n i c model .....................
3.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SECTION 2 - SOME THEORETICAL SATELLITE TECHNIQUES

4 METEOROLOGICAL DATA FROM SATELLITES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.1 lntroduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.2 Long-wave r a d i a t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Measurernent o f s u r f a c e t e m p e r a t u r e
4.4 Measurement o f t h e v e r t i c a l d i s t r i b u t i c n o f a t m o s p h e r i c
ternpera t u r e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
4.5 . . . . .
Meásurement o f t h e a t m o s p h e r i c h u m i d i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n 300
4.6 Measurement o f w i n d v e c t o r s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 300
Annex: M e t e o r o l o g i c a l S a t e l l i t e r e c e i v i n g equiprnent . . . . . . . . 302

5 THEORY OF SATELLITE OREITS .......... . . . ........ 303

5.1 Some f a c t o r s i n o r b i t a l c a l c u l a t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
5.2 C a l c u l a t i o n of t h e t r a c k . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
5.3 Geographical g r i d d i n g of t h e p i c t u r e . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309

BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................ 311

LISTOFTABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322

L l S T OF FIGURES ........................... 323

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