Korean Journal of Defense Analysis

ISSN: 1016-3271 (Print) 1941-4641 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rkjd20

The Prospects for Conventional Conflict on the

Korean Peninsula

Bruce W. Bennett

To cite this article: Bruce W. Bennett (1995) The Prospects for Conventional Conflict
on the Korean Peninsula, Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 7:1, 309-310, DOI:
10.1080/10163279509464546

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10163279509464546

Published online: 25 Mar 2009.

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 ABSTRACTS 309

The Prospects for Conventional Conflict on

the Korean Peninsula

Bruce W. Bennett
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This paper considers the prospects for both limited and major
conventional conflict on the Korean peninsula. The cases considered
involve North Korea as the aggressor against the Combined Forces
Command (CFC) of South Korea and the United States.
With any conflict started by North Korea, a key issue would be the
North Korean objectives. These cannot be determined with precision,
given the character of the North Korean regime. But the likely objec-
tives provide a framework for postulating North Korean strategy and
operational concepts, and the North Korean assessment of whether these
approaches could achieve its objectives.
A major North Korean conventional attack is examined using both
theater-level modeling and other forms of military assessment. Because
of both CFC preparation and South Korean and US commitment, a
North Korean major conventional attack appears very likely to fail: It
does not appear capable of penetrating the forward CFC ground de-
fenses, and even if it could, CFC air forces could stop a North Korean
advance well short of its objectives. Overcoming these CFC strengths
would require the use of weapons of far more lethality, such as chemical
and perhaps biological weapons (in addition to conventional weapons),
though their use raises other problems for North Korea. The prospects
for success of even this alternative are uncertain and the risk so great
that such a conflict is unlikely to develop as a purposeful North Korean
effort at expansion, but cannot be ruled out as a North Korean act of
desperation.
It is also possible that some form of limited conflict could occur
either as an isolated event or as a precursor to a major conflict in Korea.
Such attacks could occur in various circumstances, such as a North
 310 THE KOREAN JOURNAL OF DEFENSE ANALYSIS

Korean response to some form of sanctions that may yet occur if it

becomes recalcitrant on the nuclear weapon issue. The costs of even a
limited conflict could be very high. The CFC must carefully evaluate
the kinds of limited attacks that North Korea could commit, and
determine appropriate responses that avoid: (1) encouraging further
North Korean attacks and (2) overreacting to North Korean provocation.
Overreacting could lead to an escalation spiral that could plunge the
Korean peninsula into a major war.
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