Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Hitchhiker’s Guide
to the Metaverse
April 2022
By Jean-François Bobier, Tibor Merey, Stephen Robnett, Michael Grebe,
Jimmy Feng, Benjamin Rehberg, Kristi Woolsey, and Joel Hazan
Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders
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we work closely with clients to embrace a
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I
t has taken 30 years since the term was coined in 1992, • Metaverse worlds—m-worlds—are gathering hundreds
but big money has now moved into the metaverse—ac- of millions of active users thanks to the powerful com-
companied by big hype. Facebook, which changed its puting capacity and mass-market availability of mobile
name to Meta Platforms, has promised to invest $10 bil- phones, tablets, and PCs, as well as improvements in
lion in its Reality Labs operation this year. Microsoft is cloud services and connectivity (such as fiber and 5G).
making a $70 billion bet on a metafuture with its planned
acquisition of Activision Blizzard. Venture capital funds • A mass market for augmented, virtual, and mixed-reality
poured almost $25 billion into crypto-related investments (AR, VR, and MR) headsets is growing fast, with devices
in 2021. such as Meta Quest 2 affordably priced and easy to set
up and use.
To understand the pull of the metaverse, it helps to think
in terms of the distinct trends that are converging to • Virtual assets powered by an innovative Web3 technolo-
create it. (See Exhibit 1.) Recall the release in 2007 of the gy stack are rising in popularity as objects to acquire and
original iPhone—a single device that brought together a exchange.
camera, computer, mobile phone, and operating system.
The technologies involved were not new; the revolution lay
in their convergence and the resulting entrepreneurial
stimulation of thousands (and ultimately, millions) of app
developers, who set about finding ways to put the magical
new tool to use.
M-Worlds
300 million–500 million
active users
Metaverse
AR/VR/MR Web3/Virtual assets
30 million installed headsets 30 million total NFT wallets
800 million mobile AR users 1 million active NFT wallets
$16 billion market (hardware, $40 billion in NFT assets
software, and advertising) $50 billion in virtual
transactions (fiat currency)
Sources: Matthew Ball; Bloomberg; ARtillery Intelligence; Binance Research; BCG analysis.
Note: 2021 figures.
Revenue ~$211 million, 2021 N/A N/A2 ~$920 million, 2020 ~$5.1 billion, 2020
Almost 50 million
~30,000 active users/ 20,000/day as ~20 million in ~350 million
Number of users active daily users as
month, 2021 of March 2022 January 2022 total, 2021
of November 2021
XR: AR, VR and MR While the number of AR and VR users climbs, mobile AR,
which leverages smartphone cameras and processing
Technological advances in AR, VR, and MR (often referred power to superimpose information on what the phone is
to collectively as extended reality, or XR) are facilitating the seeing, helps bridge the transition.More than half of the 6
shift from 2D to 3D by providing more realistic experiences billion smartphones in use today are sufficiently powerful
and digital displays that are better synchronized with head to enable mobile AR. In addition, the software develop-
movements. Indeed, surveys have found that the two big- ment kits from Apple for iOS, and from Google for Android,
gest barriers to wider adoption of XR are the user experi- can be extended to AR and VR development. According to
ence and limited content, both of which are improving fast. research from ARtillery Intelligence, 800 million users
Equipment costs also have fallen, and sales are projected actively use mobile AR, a number that it projects will grow
to increase quickly. (See Exhibit 4.) Meta’s Mark Zucker- to 1.7 billion in 2025.
berg, speaking about Oculus, which has an estimated 35%
share of the VR headset market, told The Verge in Septem- The use cases for AR, VR, and MR span consumer and
ber 2020, “If we get to 10 million units active, then that’s business applications. (See Exhibit 5.) A 2020 (prepandem-
kind of a critical magic number. At that point, you have a ic) survey conducted by law firm Perkins Coie, industry
self-sustaining ecosystem.” At its current pace, Meta could group XR Association, and venture capital firm Boost VC
reach this critical mass by mid-2022. And Apple’s expected identified the top five sectors for immersive environments
entry in early 2023 could turn out to be the iPhone mo- as health care, education, workforce development, manu-
ment for AR and VR. facturing, and automotive. (See the sidebar “New Automo-
tive Realities.”) The most likely areas for business applica-
tions were employee training and workflow management.
88
72 10
57 6
78
41 3
~30 2 65
16 54
1
0 39
16 26
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Installed headset base (million units)
AR VR
Beneficiaries
Revenue Marketing Supply
Enablers
Exclusive benefits
NFTs NFTs as new products
such as events –
Smart
Enabling resale royalties – Counterfeit protection
contracts
Content
User
and
base
virtual
assets
Creator ecosystem
A $250 Billion to $400 Billion Market Network and Cloud Infrastructure. AR and VR experi-
Opportunity ences will require a powerful cloud infrastructure. For
example, Meta is building a supercomputer that is estimat-
We project a total metaverse market of $250 billion to ed to be 20 times faster than its current machines. “The
$400 billion by 2025. (See Exhibit 8.) It will have four major experiences we’re building for the metaverse require enor-
component parts. mous compute power (quintillions of operations/second!),”
wrote Mark Zuckerberg. Meta Quest 2 features 1K resolu-
The Virtual-Asset Economy. As the metaverse grows in tion per eye, and Apple’s headset is expected to reach 4K.
popularity, virtual assets will gain in economic value and a But to match human vision, the technology will eventually
growing number will be created by individual users and have to reach 20K resolution. This will drive significant
exchanged between users and companies. These assets network requirements, both fixed (fiber and Wi-Fi) and
will be owned either in Web3 decentralized infrastructures mobile (5G and 6G). The metaverse may be what gives 5G
or in “walled gardens.” The former represented about 40% a compelling value proposition.
of the virtual-asset economy in 2021, the latter 60%. Be-
cause of the underlying volatility of these assets, we project Existing Information and Communications Infra-
that their transaction value will range between $150 billion structure. The metaverse will be accessed through hybrid
and $300 billion by 2025. 2D screens (on mobile phones, tablets, and PC browsers)
and AR and VR hardware. Web3 will continue to require a
AR/VR/MR Hardware and Software. As the installed network of mining nodes to power the blockchain. We
base grows, so will sales of AR and VR hardware, software, don’t expect the metaverse to drive a big expansion in the
and applications and content, such as media. The hard- traditional infrastructure market, given the already high
ware, whose bulk has been a barrier to wider adoption, is penetration of PCs and smartphones and the shift in most
advancing quickly, with reductions in headset weight and major Layer 1 blockchains from the proof-of-work consen-
size in each new iteration. Product roadmaps point to sus mechanism (which requires expensive mining hard-
eventual design specs similar to a pair of eyeglasses. Near- ware and electricity) to the proof-of-stake mechanism
term developments promise integration of eye tracking (which greatly reduces these requirements).
inside the headset, which will allow computing power to be
focused exactly where the user is looking, saving on power
at the periphery of vision. By 2025, this almost $50 billion
market will be equally split between consumer and enter-
prise buyers, reflecting the productivity benefits stemming
from AR/VR augmentation. (See Exhibit 9.)
Requires bandwidth
$122 billion
and cloud
Existing blockchain,
90 47
network and cloud
infrastructure 19
Network and cloud 6 16 9 28
infrastructure 2021 2025
Negligible incremental growth1
Virtual-asset economy VR/AR/MR Network Cloud
Consumer
$23.5 billion 11.5 10.5
3
Enterprise
$23.2 billion 5.2
4.5
VR AR Mobile AR
Ad placements Consumer software and content Consumer hardware Enterprise software and content Entreprise hardware
The metaverse market that is taking shape offers a wide Companies can start by familiarizing their organizations
range of commercial opportunity to companies in multiple with the potential impact of the metaverse. A useful vehi-
industries. cle is an assessment of how the business may be positively
or negatively affected by the convergence of the three
Technology, media, and telecom companies will benefit trends described above: the rise of m-worlds; improve-
directly by providing technological enablers, such as 5G, ments in AR, VR, and MR; and the expanding use of Web3
next-generation Wi-Fi or broadband networks, and new assets enabled by blockchain. Companies can then choose
operating systems, app stores, and platforms to foster areas of focus on the metaverse flywheel and potential use
more content creation. cases for their own efforts. Finally, they can decide whether
to (1) become part of building this new infrastructure; (2)
AR and VR tools are being actively explored and used in monetize content and virtual assets; (3) create B2B or B2C
industries ranging from health care to industrial goods. content, or even inward-facing experiences such as cus-
(BCG recently examined the top seven major trends for tomer showrooms, virtual conferences, and remote collab-
blockchain and distributed ledger technologies from the oration solutions; or (4) attract relevant audiences, both
point of view of global banks.) existing customers and prospects of interest (such as Gen
Z consumers). (See Exhibit 10.)
For consumers, there are plenty of motivations for entering
the metaverse that extend well beyond gaming. These offer
consumer-facing companies the opportunity to provide:
• Invest in prototypes
Tibor Merey is a managing director and partner in the Benjamin Rehberg is a managing director and senior
firm’s Vienna office. You may contact him by email at partner in the firm’s New York office. You may contact him
merey.tibor@bcg.com. by email at rehberg.benjamin@bcg.com.
Stephen Robnett is a managing director and partner in Kristi Woolsey is an associate director in BCG’s Pitts-
BCG’s Denver office. You may contact him by email at burgh office, where she leads its metaverse design-build
robnett.stephen@bcg.com. capability. You may contact her by email at woolsey.kristi@
bcg.com.
Michael Grebe is a managing director and senior partner Joel Hazan is a managing director and partner in the
in the firm’s Munich office. You may contact him by email firm’s Paris office and a BCG Henderson Institute fellow.
at grebe.michael@bcg.com. You may contact him by email at hazan.joel@bcg.com.
The authors thank their colleagues Erik Lenhard, Kaj If you would like to discuss this report, please contact one
Burchardi, Mark Zoeckler, Nuri Schömann, and Yannis of the authors.
Campo for contributions to this report.
Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders Uciam volora ditatur? Axim voloreribus moluptati
in business and society to tackle their most autet hario qui a nust faciis reperro vitatia
important challenges and capture their greatest dipsandelia sit laborum, quassitio. Itas volutem
opportunities. BCG was the pioneer in business es nulles ut faccus perchiliati doluptatur. Estiunt.
strategy when it was founded in 1963. Today, we Et eium inum et dolum et et eos ex eum harchic
help clients with total transformation—inspiring teceserrum natem in ra nis quia disimi, omnia
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