SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.341662
R Square 0.116733
Adjusted R 0.101237
Standard E 5094.489
Observatio 59

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.96E+08 1.96E+08 7.533142 0.008087
Residual 57 1.48E+09 25953817
Total 58 1.67E+09

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 5008.241 1377.54 3.635641 0.000597 2249.764 7766.717 2249.764 7766.717
1 106.8966 38.94714 2.744657 0.008087 28.90624 184.8869 28.90624 184.8869
Average of Seasonal
Factor St
January 0.43
February 0.47
March 0.46
April 0.40
May 0.62
June 0.83
July 0.85
August 1.15
September 1.73
October 1.78
November 2.12
December 1.09
 Deseasonalized Dt (based on Seasonal Forecast,
Period Demand Demand regression) Factor,St Ft
Year 1 January 1 2000 6062 0.33 2587
February 2 3000 6132 0.49 2911
March 3 3000 6203 0.48 2870
April 4 3000 6273 0.48 2499
May 5 4000 6344 0.63 3942
June 6 6000 6414 0.94 5353
July 7 7000 6542 6484 1.08 5531
August 8 6000 6625 6555 0.92 7547
September 9 10000 6667 6625 1.51 11483
October 10 12000 6750 6696 1.79 11907
November 11 14000 6875 6766 2.07 14370
December 12 8000 7000 6836 1.17 7485
Year 2 January 13 3000 6917 6907 0.43 2947
February 14 4000 6833 6977 0.57 3312
March 15 3000 7000 7047 0.43 3261
April 16 5000 7083 7118 0.70 2835
May 17 5000 7167 7188 0.70 4467
June 18 8000 7333 7259 1.10 6058
July 19 3000 7375 7329 0.41 6252
August 20 8000 7375 7399 1.08 8519
September 21 12000 7500 7470 1.61 12947
October 22 12000 7500 7540 1.59 13409
November 23 16000 7375 7611 2.10 16164
December 24 10000 7250 7681 1.30 8410
Year 3 January 25 2000 7333 7751 0.26 3308
February 26 5000 7583 7822 0.64 3713
March 27 5000 7792 7892 0.63 3652
April 28 3000 8042 7963 0.38 3172
May 29 4000 8250 8033 0.50 4992
June 30 6000 8250 8103 0.74 6763
July 31 7000 8292 8174 0.86 6973
August 32 10000 8375 8244 1.21 9492
September 33 15000 8292 8315 1.80 14411
October 34 15000 8208 8385 1.79 14911
November 35 18000 8208 8455 2.13 17958
December 36 8000 8292 8526 0.94 9334
Year 4 January 37 5000 8458 8596 0.58 3668
February 38 4000 8750 8667 0.46 4114
March 39 4000 8958 8737 0.46 4043
April 40 2000 9042 8807 0.23 3508
May 41 5000 9167 8878 0.56 5517
June 42 7000 9417 8948 0.78 7468
July 43 10000 9583 9018 1.11 7693
August 44 14000 9500 9089 1.54 10464
September 45 16000 9375 9159 1.75 15875
 October 46 16000 9333 9230 1.73 16413
November 47 20000 9417 9300 2.15 19752
December 48 12000 9458 9370 1.28 10259
Year 5 January 49 5000 9333 9441 0.53 4029
February 50 2000 9083 9511 0.21 4515
March 51 3000 9083 9582 0.31 4434
April 52 2000 9417 9652 0.21 3845
May 53 7000 9667 9722 0.72 6042
June 54 6000 9583 9793 0.61 8173
July 55 8000 9863 0.81 8414
August 56 10000 9934 1.01 11437
September 57 20000 10004 2.00 17339
October 58 20000 10074 1.99 17915
November 59 22000 10145 2.17 21546
December 60 8000 10215 0.78 11184
 Absolute Percent
Error, Et Error, At MSEt MAD Error MAPE Ts
587 587 344272 587 29 29 1
-89 89 176084 338 3 16 1
-130 130 122988 268 4 12 1
-501 501 155014 327 17 13 0
-58 58 124678 273 1 11 -1
-647 647 173644 335 11 11 -2
-1469 1469 456953 497 21 12 -5
1547 1547 698806 628 26 14 -1
1483 1483 865427 723 15 14 1
-93 93 779758 660 1 13 1
370 370 721325 634 3 12 2
-515 515 683340 624 6 11 1
-53 53 630990 580 2 11 1
-688 688 619716 588 17 11 0
261 261 582954 566 9 11 0
-2165 2165 839364 666 43 13 -3
-533 533 806688 658 11 13 -4
-1942 1942 971371 729 24 13 -6
3252 3252 1476837 862 108 18 -2
519 519 1416466 845 6 18 -1
947 947 1391697 850 8 17 0
1409 1409 1418635 875 12 17 2
164 164 1358127 844 1 16 2
-1590 1590 1406935 875 16 16 0
1308 1308 1419055 893 65 18 2
-1287 1287 1428170 908 26 19 0
-1348 1348 1442555 924 27 19 -1
172 172 1392091 897 6 19 -1
992 992 1378031 901 25 19 0
763 763 1351507 896 13 19 1
-27 27 1307934 868 0 18 1
-508 508 1275139 857 5 18 0
-589 589 1247019 849 4 17 -1
-89 89 1210576 826 1 17 -1
-42 42 1176038 804 0 16 -1
1334 1334 1192831 819 17 16 1
-1332 1332 1208537 832 27 16 -1
114 114 1177076 814 3 16 -1
43 43 1146943 794 1 16 -1
1508 1508 1175148 812 75 17 1
517 517 1153008 804 10 17 2
468 468 1130772 796 7 17 3
-2307 2307 1228239 832 23 17 0
-3536 3536 1484477 893 25 17 -4
-125 125 1451837 876 1 17 -4
 413 413 1423981 866 3 16 -4
-248 248 1394989 853 1 16 -4
-1741 1741 1429059 871 15 16 -6
-971 971 1419155 873 19 16 -7
2515 2515 1517287 906 126 18 -4
1434 1434 1527857 917 48 19 -3
1845 1845 1563927 934 92 20 -1
-958 958 1551733 935 14 20 -2
2173 2173 1610447 958 36 21 1
414 414 1584277 948 5 20 1
1437 1437 1592840 957 14 20 3
-2661 2661 1689135 986 13 20 0
-2085 2085 1734961 1005 10 20 -2
-454 454 1709043 996 2 20 -3
3184 3184 1849526 1033 40 20 0