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Lecture notes, chapter 7, exercises and answers

Applying Excel Models in Operations Management (Copenhagen Business School)
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Exercise 7-1: ABC Corporation
Table 7.3 - Monthly Demand for ABC Corporation
Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
JAN 2,000 3,000 2,000
FEB 3,000 4,000 5,000
MAR 3,000 3,000 6,000
APR 5,000 5,000 3,000
MAY 4,000 5,000 4,000
JUN 6,000 7,000 6,000
JUL 7,000 3,000 7,000
AUG 6,000 8,000 10,000
SEP 10,000 12,000 15,000
OCT 12,000 11,000 15,000
NOV 14,000 16,000 18,000
DEC 8,000 10,000 8,000
Total 80,000 87,000 99,000
Periodicity = 12
Deseasonalized
Year Month Period Sales Demand

JAN 1 2,000
FEB 2 3,000
MAR 3 3,000
APR 4 5,000
MAY 5 4,000
JUN 6 6,000
Year 1
JUL 7 7,000 6,708
AUG 8 6,000 6,792
SEP 9 10,000 6,833
OCT 10 12,000 6,833
NOV 11 14,000 6,875
DEC 12 8,000 6,958
JAN 13 3,000 6,833
FEB 14 4,000 6,750
 MAR 15 3,000 6,917
APR 16 5,000 6,958
MAY 17 5,000 7,000
JUN 18 7,000 7,167
Year 2
JUL 19 3,000 7,208
AUG 20 8,000 7,208
SEP 21 12,000 7,375
OCT 22 11,000 7,417
NOV 23 16,000 7,292
DEC 24 10,000 7,208

JAN 25 2,000 7,333

FEB 26 5,000 7,583
MAR 27 6,000 7,792
APR 28 3,000 8,083
MAY 29 4,000 8,333
JUN 30 6,000 8,333
Year 3
JUL 31 7,000 8,375
AUG 32 10,000 8,458
SEP 33 15,000 8,333
OCT 34 15,000 8,208
NOV 35 18,000 8,208
DEC 36 8,000 8,292
JAN 37 5,000 8,542
FEB 38 4,000 8,917
MAR 39 4,000 9,125
APR 40 2,000 9,208
MAY 41 5,000 9,333
JUN 42 7,000 9,583
Year 4
JUL 43 12,000 9,750
AUG 44 14,000 9,667
SEP 45 16,000 9,542
OCT 46 16,000 9,500
NOV 47 20,000 9,583
DEC 48 12,000 9,625
JAN 49 5,000 9,417
FEB 50 2,000 9,083
MAR 51 3,000 9,000
APR 52 2,000 9,250
MAY 53 7,000 9,500

Year 5
 JUN 54 6,000 9,417
Year 5
JUL 55 8,000
AUG 56 10,000
SEP 57 18,000
OCT 58 20,000
NOV 59 22,000
DEC 60 8,000
JAN 61
FEB 62
MAR 63
APR 64
MAY 65
JUN 66
JUL 67
AUG 68
Year 6 SEP 69
ool)

Deseasonalized
Demand

6,708
6,792
6,833
6,833
6,875
6,958
6,833
6,750
6,917
6,958
7,000
7,167
7,208
7,208
7,375
7,417
7,292
7,208

7,333
7,583
7,792
8,083
8,333
8,333
8,375
8,458
8,333
8,208
8,208
8,292
8,542
8,917
9,125
9,208
9,333
9,583
9,750
9,667
9,542
9,500
9,583
9,625
9,417
9,083
9,000
9,250
9,500
9,417
OCT 70
NOV 71
DEC 72
 25,000
20,000 Sales
15,000
10,000
5,000
-

Year 4 Year 5
5,000 5,000
4,000 2,000
4,000 3,000
2,000 2,000
5,000 7,000
7,000 6,000
12,000 8,000
14,000 10,000
16,000 18,000
16,000 20,000
20,000 22,000
12,000 8,000
117,000 111,000
Deseasonalized Demand Seasonal Factor Forecast Error, E_t Absolute Error,
based on A_t
Regression
6,035.23 0.331 2,570.89 570.89 570.89 570.89
6,107.28 0.491 2,897.06 -102.94 102.94 467.95
6,179.33 0.485 3,012.18 12.18 12.18 480.13
6,251.37 0.800 2,888.75
6,323.42 0.633 3,922.12 -2,111.25 2,111.25 -1,631.13
6,395.46 0.938 5,152.80 -77.88 77.88 -1,709.01
6,467.51 1.082 5,789.49 -847.20 847.20 -2,556.21
6,539.56 0.917 7,508.00 -1,210.51 1,210.51 -3,766.72
6,611.60 1.512 11,162.58 1,508.00 1,508.00 -2,258.72
6,683.65 1.795 11,672.86 1,162.58 1,162.58 -1,096.13
6,755.69 2.072 14,303.90 -327.14 327.14 -1,423.27
6,827.74 1.172 7,453.26 303.90 303.90 -1,119.37
6,899.79 0.435 2,939.17
6,971.83 0.574 3,307.17 -546.74 546.74 -1,666.11
7,043.88 0.426 3,433.61 -60.83 60.83 -1,726.94
7,115.92 0.703 3,288.25 -692.83 692.83 -2,419.77
7,187.97 0.696 4,458.36 433.61 433.61 -1,986.15
7,260.02 0.964 5,849.37 -1,711.75 1,711.75 -3,697.90
7,332.06 0.409 6,563.41 -541.64 541.64 -4,239.54
7,404.11 1.080 8,500.58 -1,150.63 1,150.63 -5,390.18
7,476.15 1.605 12,622.24
7,548.20 1.457 13,182.78 3,563.41 3,563.41 -1,826.77
7,620.25 2.100 16,134.42 500.58 500.58 -1,326.18
7,692.29 1.300 8,397.02 622.24 622.24 -703.95
2,182.78 2,182.78 1,478.83
134.42 134.42 1,613.26
-1,602.98 1,602.98 10.28
Sales

Bias
 570.89 570.89
102.94 467.95
12.18 480.13
2,111.25 -1,631.13
77.88 -1,709.01
847.20 -2,556.21
1,210.51 -3,766.72
1,508.00 -2,258.72
1,162.58 -1,096.13
327.14 -1,423.27
303.90 -1,119.37
546.74 -1,666.11
60.83 -1,726.94
692.83 -2,419.77
433.61 -1,986.15
1,711.75 -3,697.90
541.64 -4,239.54
1,150.63 -5,390.18
3,563.41 -1,826.77
500.58 -1,326.18
622.24 -703.95
2,182.78 1,478.83
134.42 1,613.26
1,602.98 10.28
 7,764.34 0.258 3,307.45 1,307.45 1,307.45
7,836.38 0.638 3,717.28 -1,282.72 1,282.72
7,908.43 0.759 3,855.05 -2,144.95 2,144.95
7,980.48 0.376 3,687.76 687.76 687.76
8,052.52 0.497 4,994.60 994.60 994.60
8,124.57 0.739 6,545.93 545.93 545.93
8,196.61 0.854 7,337.32 337.32 337.32
8,268.66 1.209 9,493.17 -506.83 506.83
8,340.71 1.798 14,081.89 -918.11 918.11
8,412.75 1.783 14,692.70 -307.30 307.30
8,484.80 2.121 17,964.95 -35.05 35.05
8,556.84 0.935 9,340.78 1,340.78 1,340.78
8,628.89 0.579 3,675.73 -1,324.27 1,324.27
8,700.94 0.460 4,127.39 127.39 127.39
8,772.98 0.456 4,276.48 276.48 276.48
8,845.03 0.226 4,087.27 2,087.27 2,087.27
8,917.07 0.561 5,530.84 530.84 530.84
8,989.12 0.779 7,242.50 242.50 242.50
9,061.16 1.324 8,111.24 -3,888.76 3,888.76
9,133.21 1.533 10,485.75 -3,514.25 3,514.25
9,205.26 1.738 15,541.54 -458.46 458.46
9,277.30 1.725 16,202.63 202.63 202.63
9,349.35 2.139 19,795.47 -204.53 204.53
9,421.39 1.274 10,284.54 -1,715.46 1,715.46
9,493.44 0.527 4,044.02 -955.98 955.98
9,565.49 0.209 4,537.50 2,537.50 2,537.50
9,637.53 0.311 4,697.92 1,697.92 1,697.92
9,709.58 0.206 4,486.78 2,486.78 2,486.78
9,781.62 0.716 6,067.08 -932.92 932.92
9,853.67 0.609 7,939.06 1,939.06 1,939.06
9,925.72 0.806 8,885.16 885.16 885.16
9,997.76 1.000 11,478.33 1,478.33 1,478.33
10,069.81 1.788 17,001.19 -998.81 998.81
10,141.85 1.972 17,712.55 -2,287.45 2,287.45
10,213.90 2.154 21,626.00 -374.00 374.00
10,285.95 0.778 11,228.29 3,228.29 3,228.29
4,412.30
4,947.61
5,119.35
4,886.28
6,603.32
 8,635.63
9,659.07
12,470.92
18,460.84
1,317.73
35.01
-2,109.94
-1,422.18
-427.58
118.35
455.67
-51.16
-969.27
-1,276.57
-1,311.62
29.16
-1,295.11
-1,167.72
-891.23
1,196.04
1,726.88
1,969.37
-1,919.39
-5,433.63
-5,892.10
-5,689.47
-5,894.00
-7,609.46
-8,565.45
-6,027.95
-4,330.03
-1,843.25
-2,776.17
-837.11
48.05
1,526.39
527.57
-1,759.88
-2,133.88
1,094.41
19,222.47
23,456.52
12,172.05
 Sales
MSE_t MAD_t Percentage MAPE_t TS_t
Error, %
325,913.85 570.89 28.5% 28.5% 1
168,255.15 336.91 3.4% 16.0% 1.38893
112,219.54 228.67 0.4% 10.8% 2.099668
42.2% 18.7% -2.33246
1,198,513.46 699.32

960,023.88 575.03 1.9% 15.3% -2.972038

919,644.45 620.39 14.1% 15.1% -4.120319
997,600.06 704.69 17.3% 15.4% -5.345186
25.1%
1,157,158.46 805.11 11.6% 16.6% -2.805486
1,178,763.37 844.83 2.7% 16.1% -1.297463
1,071,589.21 793.06 2.2% 14.7% -1.794664
982,567.92 748.59 6.8% 13.6% -1.495311
925,597.38 731.77 13.0% -2.276828

854,682.22 680.16 2.0% 12.2% -2.53903 Residual

827,920.03 681.06 17.3% 12.6% -3.552932
785,260.12 664.57 14.5% 12.7% -2.988649
919,311.21 730.01 34.2% 14.0% -5.065516
10.8%
882,491.43 718.93 16.4% 13.8% -5.896984
907,017.36 742.92 118.8% 14.0% -7.255419
1,527,588.51 891.36 6.3% 19.5% -2.049408
1,463,738.32 871.83 5.2% 18.8% -1.521159
1,412,473.50 859.94 18.2% -0.818603

1,564,839.74 920.07 19.8% 18.3% 1.607305

1,497,588.87 885.91 0.8% 17.5% 1.821014
1,542,253.65 915.79 16.0% 17.4% 0.01122
 SUMMARY OU
Regression S
Multiple R

R Square
Adjusted R Squ
Standard Error
Observations
ANOVA
Regression

Residual
Total                
Intercept
X Variable 1

Seasonal Facto
Month January
1,548,940.73 931.45 65.4% 19.4% 1.414698
1,552,649.40 944.97 25.7% 19.6% 0.037048
1,665,544.34 989.41 35.7% 20.2% -2.132527
1,622,953.99 978.64 22.9% 20.3% -1.453228
1,601,101.39 979.19 24.9% 20.5% -0.43667
1,557,666.07 964.74 9.1% 20.1% 0.122676
1,511,089.33 944.51 4.8% 19.6% 0.482448
1,471,895.25 930.83 5.1% 19.1% -0.054959
1,452,835.78 930.44 6.1% 18.7% -1.041731
1,412,882.71 912.11 2.0% 18.2% -1.39957
1,372,549.74 887.06 0.2% 17.7% -1.478622
1,384,359.06 899.66 16.8% 17.7% 0.03241
1,394,340.74 911.14 26.5% 17.9% -1.421424 25,000
1,358,074.64 890.51 3.2% 17.6% -1.311289
1,325,212.31 874.77 6.9% 17.3% -1.018823
1,400,999.19 905.08 104.4% 19.5% 1.321472
1,373,701.44 895.95 10.6% 19.2% 1.927423 20,000
1,342,394.39 880.39 3.5% 18.9% 2.236928
1,662,860.86 950.35 32.4% 19.2% -2.019652
1,905,749.10 1,008.62 25.1% 19.3% -5.387171
1,868,069.96 996.40 2.9% 19.0% -5.913391 15,000
1,828,352.29 979.14 1.3% 18.6% -5.810665
1,790,341.21 962.66 1.0% 18.2% -6.122607
1,814,351.16 978.35 14.3% 18.1% -7.777893
1,795,974.74 977.89 19.1% 18.1% -8.759123
1,888,833.62 1,009.08 126.9% 20.3% -5.973699
1,908,325.73 1,022.59 56.6% 21.0% -4.234382
1,990,551.24 1,050.75 124.3% 23.0% -1.754232
1,969,415.14 1,048.52 13.3% 22.8% -2.647698
2,002,573.54 1,065.01 32.3% 23.0% -0.786005
1,980,408.61 1,061.74 11.1% 22.8% 0.045256
1,984,070.49 1,069.18 14.8% 22.6% 1.427619
1,966,764.43 1,067.95 5.5% 22.3% 0.494007
2,023,069.16 1,088.97 11.4% 22.2% -1.616089
1,991,150.68 1,076.86 1.7% 21.8% -1.981586
2,131,662.77 1,112.71 40.4% 22.1% 0.983551
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

-
 TPUT

tatistics
0.956756
0.915383
0.913543
309.9812
48

df SS MS F ignificance F
1 47816011 47816011 497.6256 2.619E-26
46 4420063 96088.34
47 52236075

Coefficientsandard Err     t Stat       P-value   Lower 95%Upper 95%ower 95,0  pper 95,0 %

r
5963.188 108.19 55.11775 1.162E-43 5745.413 6180.963 5745.413 6180.963
72.04597 3.229672 22.30752 2.619E-26 65.54498 78.54696 65.54498 78.54696
Period Seasonal F actor
1 0.426

2 0.474
3 0.487
4 0.462
5 0.620
6 0.806
7 0.895
8 1.148
9 1.688
10 1.746
11 2.117
12 1.092

Sales Forecast
%
Exercise 7-4: ABC Corporation- Moving Average
Table 7.3 - Monthly Demand for ABC Corporation
Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
JAN 2,000 3,000 2,000 5,000 5,000
FEB 3,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 2,000
MAR 3,000 3,000 6,000 4,000 3,000
APR 5,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 2,000
MAY 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 7,000
JUN 6,000 7,000 6,000 7,000 6,000
JUL 7,000 3,000 7,000 12,000 8,000
AUG 6,000 8,000 10,000 14,000 10,000
SEP 10,000 12,000 15,000 16,000 18,000
OCT 12,000 11,000 15,000 16,000 20,000
NOV 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000
DEC 8,000 10,000 8,000 12,000 8,000
Total 80,000 87,000 99,000 117,000 111,000
N= 12

Year Month Period Sales Level, L_t Forecast, F_t

JAN 1 2,000
FEB 2 3,000
MAR 3 3,000
APR 4 5,000
MAY 5 4,000
JUN 6 6,000
Year 1
JUL 7 7,000
AUG 8 6,000
SEP 9 10,000
OCT 10 12,000
NOV 11 14,000
DEC 12 8,000 6,667
JAN 13 3,000 6,750 6,667
FEB 14 4,000 6,833 6,750
MAR 15 3,000 6,833 6,833
APR 16 5,000 6,833 6,833
MAY 17 5,000 6,917 6,833
JUN 18 7,000 7,000 6,917
Year 2
JUL 19 3,000 6,667 7,000
AUG 20 8,000 6,833 6,667
SEP 21 12,000 7,000 6,833
Year 2

OCT 22 11,000 6,917 7,000

NOV 23 16,000 7,083 6,917
DEC 24 10,000 7,250 7,083
JAN 25 2,000 7,167 7,250
FEB 26 5,000 7,250 7,167
MAR 27 6,000 7,500 7,250
APR 28 3,000 7,333 7,500
MAY 29 4,000 7,250 7,333
JUN 30 6,000 7,167 7,250
Year 3
JUL 31 7,000 7,500 7,167
AUG 32 10,000 7,667 7,500
SEP 33 15,000 7,917 7,667
OCT 34 15,000 8,250 7,917
NOV 35 18,000 8,417 8,250
DEC 36 8,000 8,250 8,417
JAN 37 5,000 8,500 8,250
FEB 38 4,000 8,417 8,500
MAR 39 4,000 8,250 8,417
APR 40 2,000 8,167 8,250
MAY 41 5,000 8,250 8,167
JUN 42 7,000 8,333 8,250
Year 4
JUL 43 12,000 8,750 8,333
AUG 44 14,000 9,083 8,750
SEP 45 16,000 9,167 9,083
OCT 46 16,000 9,250 9,167
NOV 47 20,000 9,417 9,250
DEC 48 12,000 9,750 9,417
JAN 49 5,000 9,750 9,750
FEB 50 2,000 9,583 9,750
MAR 51 3,000 9,500 9,583
APR 52 2,000 9,500 9,500
MAY 53 7,000 9,667 9,500
JUN 54 6,000 9,583 9,667
Year 5
JUL 55 8,000 9,250 9,583
AUG 56 10,000 8,917 9,250
SEP 57 18,000 9,083 8,917
OCT 58 20,000 9,417 9,083
NOV 59 22,000 9,583 9,417
DEC 60 8,000 9,250 9,583
JAN 61 9,250.00
FEB 62 9,250.00
 MAR 63 9,250.00
APR 64 9,250.00
MAY 65 9,250.00
JUN 66 9,250.00
JUL 67 9,250.00
AUG 68 9,250.00
Year 6 SEP 69 9,250.00
Error, E_t

3,666.67
2,750.00
3,833.33
1,833.33
1,833.33
-83.33
4,000.00
-1,333.33
-5,166.67
 -4,000.00
-9,083.33
-2,916.67
5,250.00
2,166.67
1,250.00
4,500.00
3,333.33
1,250.00
166.67
-2,500.00
-7,333.33
-7,083.33
-9,750.00
416.67
3,250.00
4,500.00
4,416.67
6,250.00
3,166.67
1,250.00
-3,666.67
-5,250.00
-6,916.67
-6,833.33
-10,750.00
-2,583.33
4,750.00
7,750.00
6,583.33
7,500.00
2,500.00
3,666.67
1,583.33
-750.00
-9,083.33
-10,916.67
-12,583.33
1,583.33
OCT 70 9,250.00
NOV 71 9,250.00
DEC 72 9,250.00
Absolute
Error, A_t Bias MSE_t MAD_t Percentage
MAPE_t TS_t Error, %

3,666.67 3,666.67 13,444,444.44 3,666.67 122.2% 122.2%

2,750.00 6,416.67 10,503,472.22 3,208.33 68.8% 95.5%
3,833.33 10,250.00 11,900,462.96 3,416.67 127.8% 106.3%
1,833.33 12,083.33 9,765,625.00 3,020.83 36.7% 88.9%
1,833.33 13,916.67 8,484,722.22 2,783.33 36.7% 78.4%
83.33 13,833.33 7,071,759.26 2,333.33 1.2% 65.5%
4,000.00 17,833.33 8,347,222.22 2,571.43 133.3% 75.2%
1,333.33 16,500.00 7,526,041.67 2,416.67 16.7% 67.9%
5,166.67 11,333.33 9,655,864.20 2,722.22 43.1% 65.1%
4,000.00 7,333.33 10,290,277.78 2,850.00 36.4% 62.3%
9,083.33 -1,750.00 16,855,429.29 3,416.67 56.8% 61.8%
2,916.67 -4,666.67 16,159,722.22 3,375.00 29.2% 59.1%

5,250.00 583.33 17,036,858.97 3,519.23 262.5% 74.7%

2,166.67 2,750.00 16,155,257.94 3,422.62 43.3% 72.5%
1,250.00 4,000.00 15,182,407.41 3,277.78 20.8% 69.0%
4,500.00 8,500.00 15,499,131.94 3,354.17 150.0% 74.1%
3,333.33 11,833.33 15,241,013.07 3,352.94 83.3% 74.6%
1,250.00 13,083.33 14,481,095.68 3,236.11 20.8% 71.6%
166.67 13,250.00 13,720,394.74 3,074.56 2.4% 68.0%
2,500.00 10,750.00 13,346,875.00 3,045.83 25.0% 65.8%
7,333.33 3,416.67 15,272,156.08 3,250.00 48.9% 65.0%
7,083.33 -3,666.67 16,858,585.86 3,424.24 47.2% 64.2%
9,750.00 -13,416.67 20,258,756.04 3,699.28 54.2% 63.8%
416.67 -13,000.00 19,421,875.00 3,562.50 5.2% 61.3%
3,250.00 -9,750.00 19,067,500.00 3,550.00 65.0% 61.5%
4,500.00 -5,250.00 19,112,980.77 3,586.54 112.5% 63.5%
 4,416.67 -833.33 19,127,572.02 3,617.28 110.4% 65.2%
6,250.00 5,416.67 19,839,533.73 3,711.31 312.5% 74.0%
3,166.67 8,583.33 19,501,197.32 3,692.53 63.3% 73.7%
1,250.00 9,833.33 18,903,240.74 3,611.11 17.9% 71.8%
3,666.67 6,166.67 18,727,150.54 3,612.90 30.6% 70.5%
5,250.00 916.67 19,003,255.21 3,664.06 37.5% 69.4%
6,916.67 -6,000.00 19,877,104.38 3,762.63 43.2% 68.6%
6,833.33 -12,833.33 20,665,849.67 3,852.94 42.7% 67.9%
10,750.00 -23,583.33 23,377,182.54 4,050.00 53.8% 67.5%
2,583.33 -26,166.67 22,913,194.44 4,009.26 21.5% 66.2%
4,750.00 -21,416.67 22,903,716.22 4,029.28 95.0% 67.0%
7,750.00 -13,666.67 23,881,578.95 4,127.19 387.5% 75.4%
6,583.33 -7,083.33 24,380,519.94 4,190.17 219.4% 79.1%
7,500.00 416.67 25,177,256.94 4,272.92 375.0% 86.5%
2,500.00 2,916.67 24,715,616.53 4,229.67 35.7% 85.3%
3,666.67 6,583.33 24,447,255.29 4,216.27 61.1% 84.7%
1,583.33 8,166.67 23,937,015.50 4,155.04 19.8% 83.2%
750.00 7,416.67 23,405,776.52 4,077.65 7.5% 81.5%
9,083.33 -1,666.67 24,719,135.80 4,188.89 50.5% 80.8%
10,916.67 -12,583.33 26,772,493.96 4,335.14 54.6% 80.2%
12,583.33 -25,166.67 29,571,808.51 4,510.64 57.2% 79.7%
1,583.33 -23,583.33 29,007,957.18 4,449.65 19.8% 78.5%
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Sales Forecast, F_t
TS_t Error, %

1
2
3
4
5
5.9285714286
6.9351851852
6.8275862069
4.1632653061
2.5730994152
-0.512195122
-1.382716049

0.1657559199
0.8034782609
1.2203389831
2.5341614907
3.5292397661
4.0429184549
4.3095577746
3.5294117647
1.0512820513
-1.07079646
-3.626836435
-3.649122807
-2.746478873
-1.463806971
-0.230375427
1.4595028067
2.3245136187
2.7230769231
1.7068452381
0.250177683
-1.594630872
-3.330788804
-5.823045267
-6.526558891
-5.315259922
-3.311370882
-1.690464049
0.0975134081
0.689572321
1.5614117647
1.9654850746
1.8188574083
-0.397877984
-2.902632679
-5.579402516
-5.300039017
Exercise 7-4: ABC Corporation- Moving Average
Table 7.3 - Monthly Demand for ABC Corporation
Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
JAN 2,000 3,000 2,000 5,000 5,000
FEB 3,000 4,000 5,000 4,000 2,000
MAR 3,000 3,000 6,000 4,000 3,000
APR 5,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 2,000
MAY 4,000 5,000 4,000 5,000 7,000
JUN 6,000 7,000 6,000 7,000 6,000
JUL 7,000 3,000 7,000 12,000 8,000
AUG 6,000 8,000 10,000 14,000 10,000
SEP 10,000 12,000 15,000 16,000 18,000
OCT 12,000 11,000 15,000 16,000 20,000
NOV 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000
DEC 8,000 10,000 8,000 12,000 8,000
Total 80,000 87,000 99,000 117,000 111,000
α = 0
Year Month Period Sales Level, L_t Forecast, F_t

0 8,233
JAN 1 2,000 7,610 8,233
FEB 2 3,000 7,149 7,610
MAR 3 3,000 6,734 7,149
APR 4 5,000 6,561 6,734
MAY 5 4,000 6,305 6,561
JUN 6 6,000 6,274 6,305
Year 1
JUL 7 7,000 6,347 6,274
AUG 8 6,000 6,312 6,347
SEP 9 10,000 6,681 6,312
OCT 10 12,000 7,213 6,681
NOV 11 14,000 7,891 7,213
DEC 12 8,000 7,902 7,891
JAN 13 3,000 7,412 7,902
FEB 14 4,000 7,071 7,412
MAR 15 3,000 6,664 7,071
APR 16 5,000 6,497 6,664
MAY 17 5,000 6,348 6,497
JUN 18 7,000 6,413 6,348
Year 2
JUL 19 3,000 6,072 6,413
AUG 20 8,000 6,264 6,072
SEP 21 12,000 6,838 6,264
Year 2

OCT 22 11,000 7,254 6,838

NOV 23 16,000 8,129 7,254
DEC 24 10,000 8,316 8,129

JAN 25 2,000 7,684 8,316

FEB 26 5,000 7,416 7,684
MAR 27 6,000 7,274 7,416
APR 28 3,000 6,847 7,274
MAY 29 4,000 6,562 6,847
JUN 30 6,000 6,506 6,562
Year 3
JUL 31 7,000 6,555 6,506
AUG 32 10,000 6,900 6,555
SEP 33 15,000 7,710 6,900
OCT 34 15,000 8,439 7,710
NOV 35 18,000 9,395 8,439
DEC 36 8,000 9,255 9,395
JAN 37 5,000 8,830 9,255
FEB 38 4,000 8,347 8,830
MAR 39 4,000 7,912 8,347
APR 40 2,000 7,321 7,912
MAY 41 5,000 7,089 7,321
JUN 42 7,000 7,080 7,089
Year 4
JUL 43 12,000 7,572 7,080
AUG 44 14,000 8,215 7,572
SEP 45 16,000 8,993 8,215
OCT 46 16,000 9,694 8,993
NOV 47 20,000 10,725 9,694
DEC 48 12,000 10,852 10,725
JAN 49 5,000 10,267 10,852
FEB 50 2,000 9,440 10,267
MAR 51 3,000 8,796 9,440
APR 52 2,000 8,117 8,796
MAY 53 7,000 8,005 8,117
JUN 54 6,000 7,804 8,005
Year 5
JUL 55 8,000 7,824 7,804
AUG 56 10,000 8,042 7,824
SEP 57 18,000 9,037 8,042
OCT 58 20,000 10,134 9,037
NOV 59 22,000 11,320 10,134
DEC 60 8,000 10,988 11,320
 JAN 61 10,988.29
FEB 62 10,988.29
MAR 63 10,988.29
APR 64 10,988.29
MAY 65 10,988.29
JUN 66 10,988.29
JUL 67 10,988.29
AUG 68 10,988.29
Year 6 SEP 69 10,988.29
Error, E_t

6,233.33
4,610.00
4,149.00
1,734.10
2,560.69
304.62
-725.84
346.74
-3,687.93
-5,319.14
-6,787.22
-108.50
4,902.35
3,412.11
4,070.90
1,663.81
1,497.43
-652.31
3,412.92
-1,928.37
-5,735.54
 -4,161.98
-8,745.78
-1,871.21

6,315.92
2,684.32
1,415.89
4,274.30
2,846.87
562.18
-494.03
-3,444.63
-8,100.17
-7,290.15
-9,561.14
1,394.98
4,255.48
4,829.93
4,346.94
5,912.25
2,321.02
88.92
-4,919.97
-6,427.98
-7,785.18
-7,006.66
-10,305.99
-1,275.40
5,852.14
8,266.93
6,440.24
6,796.21
1,116.59
2,004.93
-195.56
-2,176.00
-9,958.40
-10,962.56
-11,866.31
3,320.32
OCT 70 10,988.29
NOV 71 10,988.29
DEC 72 10,988.29
Absolute Bias MSE_t MAD_t Percentage
MAPE_t TS_t Error, %
Error, A_t

6,233.33 6,233.33 38,854,444.44 6,233.33 311.7% 311.7%

4,610.00 10,843.33 30,053,272.22 5,421.67 153.7% 232.7%
4,149.00 14,992.33 25,773,581.81 4,997.44 138.3% 201.2%
1,734.10 16,726.43 20,081,962.06 4,181.61 34.7% 159.6%
2,560.69 19,287.12 17,376,996.31 3,857.42 64.0% 140.5%
304.62 19,591.74 14,496,295.91 3,265.29 5.1% 117.9%
725.84 18,865.90 12,500,660.11 2,902.51 10.4% 102.5%
346.74 19,212.65 10,953,106.44 2,583.04 5.8% 90.4%
3,687.93 15,524.71 11,247,298.75 2,705.81 36.9% 84.5%
5,319.14 10,205.58 12,951,891.95 2,967.14 44.3% 80.5%
6,787.22 3,418.35 15,962,303.07 3,314.42 48.5% 77.6%
108.50 3,309.85 14,633,092.21 3,047.26 1.4% 71.2%
4,902.35 8,212.20 15,356,163.47 3,189.96 163.4% 78.3%
3,412.11 11,624.31 15,090,903.10 3,205.83 85.3% 78.8%
4,070.90 15,695.21 15,189,659.15 3,263.50 135.7% 82.6%
1,663.81 17,359.03 14,413,322.33 3,163.52 33.3% 79.5%
1,497.43 18,856.46 13,697,379.77 3,065.51 29.9% 76.6%
652.31 18,204.14 12,960,053.75 2,931.45 9.3% 72.9%
3,412.92 21,617.06 12,890,999.09 2,956.79 113.8% 75.0%
1,928.37 19,688.69 12,432,380.26 2,905.37 24.1% 72.5%
5,735.54 13,953.15 13,406,855.96 3,040.14 47.8% 71.3%
4,161.98 9,791.17 13,584,821.38 3,091.13 37.8% 69.8%
8,745.78 1,045.39 16,319,774.22 3,336.98 54.7% 69.1%
1,871.21 -825.82 15,785,675.71 3,275.91 18.7% 67.0%
6,315.92 5,490.10 16,749,879.99 3,397.51 315.8% 77.0%
2,684.32 8,174.42 16,382,792.01 3,370.08 53.7% 76.1%
1,415.89 9,590.31 15,850,271.86 3,297.70 23.6% 74.1%
4,274.30 13,864.61 15,936,678.51 3,332.58 142.5% 76.6%
2,846.87 16,711.49 15,666,609.57 3,315.83 71.2% 76.4%
562.18 17,273.67 15,154,924.30 3,224.04 9.4% 74.2%
494.03 16,779.64 14,673,928.98 3,135.98 7.1% 72.0%
3,444.63 13,335.01 14,586,164.91 3,145.62 34.4% 70.8%
8,100.17 5,234.84 16,132,423.91 3,295.76 54.0% 70.3%
7,290.15 -2,055.31 17,221,067.21 3,413.24 48.6% 69.7%
9,561.14 -11,616.45 19,340,902.83 3,588.90 53.1% 69.2%
1,394.98 -10,221.47 18,857,710.07 3,527.96 17.4% 67.8%
4,255.48 -5,965.99 18,837,477.68 3,547.62 85.1% 68.2%
4,829.93 -1,136.06 18,955,655.76 3,581.36 120.7% 69.6%
 4,346.94 3,210.88 18,954,123.00 3,600.99 108.7% 70.6%
5,912.25 9,123.13 19,354,135.96 3,658.78 295.6% 76.2%
2,321.02 11,444.15 19,013,477.43 3,626.15 46.4% 75.5%
88.92 11,533.07 18,560,963.84 3,541.93 1.3% 73.7%
4,919.97 6,613.09 18,692,246.96 3,573.98 41.0% 73.0%
6,427.98 185.12 19,206,488.52 3,638.84 45.9% 72.4%
7,785.18 -7,600.06 20,126,544.40 3,730.98 48.7% 71.8%
7,006.66 -14,606.72 20,756,256.31 3,802.19 43.8% 71.2%
10,305.99 -24,912.72 22,574,496.03 3,940.57 51.5% 70.8%
1,275.40 -26,188.11 22,138,082.21 3,885.04 10.6% 69.6%
5,852.14 -20,335.97 22,385,215.11 3,925.19 117.0% 70.5%
8,266.93 -12,069.04 23,304,353.44 4,012.02 413.3% 77.4%
6,440.24 -5,628.80 23,660,673.03 4,059.64 214.7% 80.1%
6,796.21 1,167.41 24,093,900.77 4,112.26 339.8% 85.1%
1,116.59 2,284.01 23,662,822.97 4,055.74 16.0% 83.8%
2,004.93 4,288.94 23,299,062.46 4,017.76 33.4% 82.8%
195.56 4,093.38 22,876,138.49 3,948.27 2.4% 81.4%
2,176.00 1,917.37 22,552,189.50 3,916.62 21.8% 80.3%
9,958.40 -8,041.03 23,896,358.29 4,022.62 55.3% 79.9%
10,962.56 -19,003.59 25,556,383.16 4,142.27 54.8% 79.4%
11,866.31 -30,869.90 27,509,821.55 4,273.19 53.9% 79.0%
3,320.32 -27,549.58 27,235,066.99 4,257.31 41.5% 78.4%

25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Sales Forecast, F_t
TS_t Error, %

1
2
3
4
5
6
6.499853197
7.4379949181
5.7375552041
3.4395335286
1.0313575933
1.0861725477
2.5743897453
3.6259942359
4.8093207361
5.4872525433
6.1511575724
6.2099521704
7.3109967289
6.7766627123
4.5896471647
3.1675062722
0.3132734893
-0.252087764
1.615918041
2.4255868167
2.9081799766
4.1603231907
5.0399066223
5.3577648259
5.3506847356
4.2392236445
1.5883546848
-0.602157527
-3.236772055
-2.897277528
-1.681687952
-0.317213237
0.8916656234
2.4934920751
3.1560075141
3.2561554122
1.8503467776
0.0508726925
-2.03701477
-3.841659841
-6.322111295
-6.740749186
-5.180887897
-3.008216246
-1.386528058
0.2838859612
0.5631537652
1.0674941909
1.0367527532
0.4895479126
-1.998955146
-4.587723471
-7.224093383
-6.471129577
 Exercise 7-1: ABC Corporation
Table 7.3 - Monthly Demand for ABC Corporation
Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
JAN 2,000 3,000 2,000
FEB 3,000 4,000 5,000
MAR 3,000 3,000 6,000
APR 5,000 5,000 3,000
MAY 4,000 5,000 4,000
JUN 6,000 7,000 6,000
JUL 7,000 3,000 7,000
AUG 6,000 8,000 10,000
SEP 10,000 12,000 15,000
OCT 12,000 11,000 15,000
NOV 14,000 16,000 18,000
DEC 8,000 10,000 8,000
Total 80,000 87,000 99,000
Smoothing constant for level α = 0.10
Smoothing constant for trend β = 0.20

Year Month Period Sales Level, L_t

0 4,924.86
JAN 1 2,000 4,730.00
FEB 2 3,000 4,600.03
MAR 3 3,000 4,451.05
APR 4 5,000 4,487.95
MAY 5 4,000 4,431.40
JUN 6 6,000 4,571.88
Year 1
JUL 7 7,000 4,826.87
AUG 8 6,000 4,999.83
SEP 9 10,000 5,575.49
OCT 10 12,000 6,382.08
NOV 11 14,000 7,420.37
DEC 12 8,000 7,886.42
JAN 13 3,000 7,808.14
FEB 14 4,000 7,741.52
MAR 15 3,000 7,506.73
APR 16 5,000 7,405.29
MAY 17 5,000 7,265.89
JUN 18 7,000 7,295.11
JUL 19 3,000 6,915.50
Year 2
Year 2 AUG 20 8,000 6,995.55
SEP 21 12,000 7,487.68
OCT 22 11,000 7,920.84
NOV 23 16,000 8,872.27
DEC 24 10,000 9,271.11
JAN 25 2,000 8,844.65
FEB 26 5,000 8,623.94
MAR 27 6,000 8,452.82
APR 28 3,000 7,949.76
MAY 29 4,000 7,498.00
JUN 30 6,000 7,221.47
Year 3
JUL 31 7,000 7,048.15
AUG 32 10,000 7,191.21
SEP 33 15,000 7,876.14
OCT 34 15,000 8,635.05
NOV 35 18,000 9,745.36
DEC 36 8,000 9,909.74
JAN 37 5,000 9,719.49
FEB 38 4,000 9,353.87
MAR 39 4,000 8,917.74
APR 40 2,000 8,226.86
MAY 41 5,000 7,780.54
JUN 42 7,000 7,523.24
Year 4
JUL 43 12,000 7,781.20
AUG 44 14,000 8,297.74
SEP 45 16,000 9,076.67
OCT 46 16,000 9,916.18
NOV 47 20,000 11,193.41
DEC 48 12,000 11,719.05
JAN 49 5,000 11,497.75
FEB 50 2,000 10,868.62
MAR 51 3,000 10,225.03
APR 52 2,000 9,401.30
MAY 53 7,000 9,011.92
JUN 54 6,000 8,521.23
Year 5
JUL 55 8,000 8,229.20
AUG 56 10,000 8,161.78
SEP 57 18,000 8,937.86
OCT 58 20,000 10,017.58
NOV 59 22,000 11,388.98
DEC 60 8,000 11,435.46
JAN 61
FEB 62
MAR 63
APR 64
MAY 65
Year 6 JUN 66
JUL 67
AUG 68
SEP 69
OCT 70
NOV 71
DEC 72
 Year 4 Year 5
5,000 5,000
4,000 2,000
4,000 3,000
2,000 2,000
5,000 7,000
7,000 6,000
12,000 8,000
14,000 10,000
16,000 18,000
16,000 20,000
20,000 22,000
12,000 8,000
117,000 111,000
Absolute Error,
Trend, T_t Forecast Error, E_t A_t Bias

108.47
47.81 5,033.33 3,033.33 3,033.33 3,033.33
12.25 4,777.81 1,777.81 1,777.81 4,811.14
-19.99 4,612.28 1,612.28 1,612.28 6,423.42
-8.61 4,431.06 -568.94 568.94 5,854.48
-18.20 4,479.34 479.34 479.34 6,333.81
13.53 4,413.20 -1,586.80 1,586.80 4,747.01
61.83 4,585.42 -2,414.58 2,414.58 2,332.43
84.05 4,888.70 -1,111.30 1,111.30 1,221.13
182.37 5,083.88 -4,916.12 4,916.12 -3,694.99
307.22 5,757.87 -6,242.13 6,242.13 -9,937.12
453.43 6,689.30 -7,310.70 7,310.70 -17,247.82
455.96 7,873.80 -126.20 126.20 -17,374.02
349.11 8,342.37 5,342.37 5,342.37 -12,031.65
265.96 8,157.24 4,157.24 4,157.24 -7,874.40
165.81 8,007.48 5,007.48 5,007.48 -2,866.92
112.36 7,672.55 2,672.55 2,672.55 -194.37
62.01 7,517.65 2,517.65 2,517.65 2,323.28
55.45 7,327.90 327.90 327.90 2,651.18
-31.56 7,350.56 4,350.56 4,350.56 7,001.74
-9.24 6,883.94 -1,116.06 1,116.06 5,885.68

91.03 6,986.31 -5,013.69 5,013.69 871.99

159.46 7,578.71 -3,421.29 3,421.29 -2,549.29
317.85 8,080.30 -7,919.70 7,919.70 -10,468.99
334.05 9,190.13 -809.87 809.87 -11,278.86
181.95 9,605.17 7,605.17 7,605.17 -3,673.70
101.42 9,026.60 4,026.60 4,026.60 352.90
46.91 8,725.35 2,725.35 2,725.35 3,078.25
-63.09 8,499.73 5,499.73 5,499.73 8,577.98
-140.82 7,886.67 3,886.67 3,886.67 12,464.65
-167.96 7,357.19 1,357.19 1,357.19 13,821.84
-169.03 7,053.50 53.50 53.50 13,875.34
-106.61 6,879.12 -3,120.88 3,120.88 10,754.47
51.69 7,084.59 -7,915.41 7,915.41 2,839.06
193.14 7,927.83 -7,072.17 7,072.17 -4,233.11
376.57 8,828.18 -9,171.82 9,171.82 -13,404.93
334.13 10,121.94 2,121.94 2,121.94 -11,282.99
229.26 10,243.88 5,243.88 5,243.88 -6,039.11
110.28 9,948.75 5,948.75 5,948.75 -90.37
1.00 9,464.15 5,464.15 5,464.15 5,373.79
-137.38 8,918.74 6,918.74 6,918.74 12,292.53
-199.17 8,089.49 3,089.49 3,089.49 15,382.01
-210.79 7,581.37 581.37 581.37 15,963.39
-117.04 7,312.44 -4,687.56 4,687.56 11,275.83
9.67 7,664.16 -6,335.84 6,335.84 4,939.99
163.53 8,307.42 -7,692.58 7,692.58 -2,752.60
298.72 9,240.20 -6,759.80 6,759.80 -9,512.40
494.42 10,214.90 -9,785.10 9,785.10 -19,297.49
500.67 11,687.84 -312.16 312.16 -19,609.66
356.27 12,219.72 7,219.72 7,219.72 -12,389.93
159.19 11,854.02 9,854.02 9,854.02 -2,535.91
-1.36 11,027.81 8,027.81 8,027.81 5,491.90
-165.84 10,223.67 8,223.67 8,223.67 13,715.57
-210.55 9,235.46 2,235.46 2,235.46 15,951.03
-266.57 8,801.37 2,801.37 2,801.37 18,752.41
-271.67 8,254.66 254.66 254.66 19,007.07
-230.82 7,957.53 -2,042.47 2,042.47 16,964.60
-29.44 7,930.96 -10,069.04 10,069.04 6,895.55
192.39 8,908.43 -11,091.57 11,091.57 -4,196.02
428.20 10,209.98 -11,790.02 11,790.02 -15,986.04
351.85 11,817.18 3,817.18 3,817.18 -12,168.87
11,787.31
12,139.16
12,491.01
12,842.87
13,194.72
MSE_t

9,201,111.11
6,180,856.04
4,987,051.74
3,821,212.80
3,102,922.93
3,005,424.22
3,408,966.37
3,137,219.11
5,473,996.85
8,823,018.46
12,879,686.08
11,807,706.12
13,094,879.84
13,394,008.57
14,172,733.56
13,733,344.58
13,298,358.75
12,565,534.23
12,900,367.55
12,317,628.30

12,928,078.78
12,872,493.40
15,039,846.06
14,440,514.74
16,176,436.19
16,177,861.40
15,853,776.12
16,367,820.44
16,324,316.65
15,841,571.16
15,330,645.08
15,155,933.69
16,595,258.07
17,578,209.47
19,479,467.27
19,063,443.71
19,291,411.68
19,714,995.41
19,975,046.38
20,672,393.51
20,400,992.11
19,923,301.71
19,970,973.56
20,429,426.69
21,290,458.37
21,820,989.42
23,393,907.12
22,908,564.17
23,504,805.19
24,976,744.21
25,750,646.87
26,555,994.40
26,149,226.62
25,810,309.18
25,342,209.96
24,964,164.97
26,304,891.95
27,972,445.82
29,854,346.94
29,599,621.69
13,546.57
13,898.42
14,250.27
14,602.13
14,953.98
15,305.83
15,657.68
 Percentage
MAD_t Error, % MAPE_t TS_t

3,033.33 151.7% 151.7% 1 SUMMARY OUTP

2,405.57 59.3% 105.5% 2
2,141.14 53.7% 88.2% 3              Regressio
1,748.09 11.4% 69.0% 3.34906943873
1,494.34 12.0% 57.6% 4.23853622806 R Square
1,509.75 26.4% 52.4% 3.14423961495
1,639.01 34.5% 49.9% 1.42307094936 Standard Error
1,573.05 18.5% 45.9% 0.77628271257
1,944.50 49.2% 46.3% -1.90022527008
2,374.26 52.0% 46.9% -4.18534885774 ANOVA
2,823.03 52.2% 47.4% -6.10968331259
2,598.29 1.6% 43.5% -6.68670229765
2,809.38 178.1% 53.9% -4.28267385836 Residual
2,905.65 103.9% 57.5% -2.71002818699
3,045.78 166.9% 64.8% -0.94127784719
3,022.45 53.5% 64.1% -0.06431005938
2,992.76 50.4% 63.2% 0.77630165421 Intercept
2,844.71 4.7% 60.0% 0.93196891724
2,923.96 145.0% 64.5% 2.39460569917
2,833.57 14.0% 61.9% 2.07712764172
SUMMARY OUTP

             Regressio
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

ANOVA

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1
2,937.38 41.8% 61.0% 0.29686006852
2,959.38 31.1% 59.6% -0.86142899829
3,175.04 49.5% 59.2% -3.29727384474
3,076.50 8.1% 57.1% -3.66614010918
3,257.64 380.3% 70.0% -1.12771695369
3,287.22 80.5% 70.4% 0.10735495347
3,266.41 45.4% 69.5% 0.94239721146
3,346.17 183.3% 73.5% 2.56352300372
3,364.81 97.2% 74.3% 3.70441795709
3,297.89 22.6% 72.6% 4.1911198257
3,193.23 0.8% 70.3% 4.34523861729
3,190.97 31.2% 69.1% 3.37028262887
3,334.13 52.8% 68.6% 0.85151374308
3,444.08 47.1% 68.0% -1.22909940364
3,607.73 51.0% 67.5% -3.71561791627
3,566.45 26.5% 66.3% -3.16364460556
3,611.79 104.9% 67.4% -1.67205569655
3,673.29 148.7% 69.5% -0.02460067285
3,719.21 136.6% 71.2% 1.44487468876
3,799.20 345.9% 78.1% 3.23556010777
3,781.89 61.8% 77.7% 4.06728676714
3,705.68 8.3% 76.1% 4.3078123484
3,728.52 39.1% 75.2% 3.02421297191
3,787.77 45.3% 74.5% 1.30419252103
3,874.55 48.1% 73.9% -0.7104302461
3,937.27 42.2% 73.2% -2.4159868365
4,061.69 48.9% 72.7% -4.75109562133
3,983.58 2.6% 71.3% -4.92262373987
4,049.62 144.4% 72.8% -3.05952880318
4,165.71 492.7% 81.2% -0.60875866514
4,241.44 267.6% 84.8% 1.29482077621
4,318.02 411.2% 91.1% 3.1763571514
4,278.73 31.9% 90.0% 3.72798750688
4,251.37 46.7% 89.2% 4.41091229992
4,178.70 3.2% 87.6% 4.54856055288
4,140.55 20.4% 86.4% 4.09718164355
4,244.56 55.9% 85.9% 1.62456225229
4,362.61 55.5% 85.3% -0.96181360875
4,488.50 53.6% 84.8% -3.56155459397
4,477.31 47.7% 84.2% -2.71789525177
UT

n  Statistics             
0.357717247267
0.127961628992
0.112926484665
4987.900810015
60

df SS MS F Significance F
1 211742372.8814 211742372.8814 8.510834761759 0.005014824079
58 1442990960.452 24879154.49055
59 1654733333.333

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

4924.858757062 1304.138933484 3.776329830063 0.00037695149 2314.341052153 7535.376461971
108.4745762712 37.18278222139 2.917333501977 0.005014824079 34.04515098947 182.9040015529

25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
 Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%
2314.341052153 7535.376461971
34.04515098947 182.9040015529

Sales
Forecast
wer 95% Upper 95%
341052153 7535.376461971
515098947 182.9040015529
 Exercise 7-1: ABC Corporation
Table 7.3 - Monthly Demand for ABC Corporation
Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
JAN 2,000 3,000 2,000
FEB 3,000 4,000 5,000
MAR 3,000 3,000 6,000
APR 5,000 5,000 3,000
MAY 4,000 5,000 4,000
JUN 6,000 7,000 6,000
JUL 7,000 3,000 7,000
AUG 6,000 8,000 10,000
SEP 10,000 12,000 15,000
OCT 12,000 11,000 15,000
NOV 14,000 16,000 18,000
DEC 8,000 10,000 8,000
Total 80,000 87,000 99,000
Smoothing constant for level α =
Smoothing constant for trend β =
Smoothing constant for the seasonal f γ = -
Periodicity =
Deseasonalized
Year Month Period Sales Demand

JAN 1 2,000
FEB 2 3,000
MAR 3 3,000
APR 4 5,000
MAY 5 4,000
JUN 6 6,000
Year 1
JUL 7 7,000 6,708.33
AUG 8 6,000 6,792
SEP 9 10,000 6,833
OCT 10 12,000 6,833
NOV 11 14,000 6,875
DEC 12 8,000 6,958
JAN 13 3,000 6,833
FEB 14 4,000 6,750
MAR 15 3,000 6,917
APR 16 5,000 6,958
MAY 17 5,000 7,000

Year 2
 JUN 18 7,000 7,167
JUL 19 3,000 7,208
Year 2 AUG 20 8,000 7,208
SEP 21 12,000 7,375
OCT 22 11,000 7,417
NOV 23 16,000 7,292
DEC 24 10,000 7,208
JAN 25 2,000 7,333
FEB 26 5,000 7,583
MAR 27 6,000 7,792
APR 28 3,000 8,083
MAY 29 4,000 8,333
JUN 30 6,000 8,333
Year 3
JUL 31 7,000 8,375
AUG 32 10,000 8,458
SEP 33 15,000 8,333
OCT 34 15,000 8,208
NOV 35 18,000 8,208
DEC 36 8,000 8,292
JAN 37 5,000 8,542
FEB 38 4,000 8,917
MAR 39 4,000 9,125
APR 40 2,000 9,208
MAY 41 5,000 9,333
JUN 42 7,000 9,583
Year 4
JUL 43 12,000 9,750
AUG 44 14,000 9,667
SEP 45 16,000 9,542
OCT 46 16,000 9,500
NOV 47 20,000 9,583
DEC 48 12,000 9,625
JAN 49 5,000 9,417
FEB 50 2,000 9,083
MAR 51 3,000 9,000
APR 52 2,000 9,250
MAY 53 7,000 9,500
JUN 54 6,000 9,417
Year 5
JUL 55 8,000
AUG 56 10,000
SEP 57 18,000
OCT 58 20,000
NOV 59 22,000
DEC 60 8,000
JAN 61
FEB 62
MAR 63
APR 64
MAY 65
 0.00
0.03
-
12
Deseasonalized
Demand

6,708.33
6,792
6,833
6,833
6,875
6,958
6,833
6,750
6,917
6,958
7,000
7,167
7,208
7,208
7,375
7,417
7,292
7,208
7,333
7,583
7,792
8,083
8,333
8,333
8,375
8,458
8,333
8,208
8,208
8,292
8,542
8,917
9,125
9,208
9,333
9,583
9,750
9,667
9,542
9,500
9,583
9,625
9,417
9,083
9,000
9,250
9,500
9,417
Year 6 JUN 66
JUL 67
AUG 68
SEP 69
OCT 70
NOV 71
DEC 72
 Year 4 Year 5
5,000 5,000
4,000 2,000
4,000 3,000
2,000 2,000
5,000 7,000
7,000 6,000
12,000 8,000
14,000 10,000
16,000 18,000
16,000 20,000
20,000 22,000
12,000 8,000
117,000 111,000
Deseasonalized Revised Estimate for Revised Estimate for
Demand based on Seasonal Factor Level, L_t Trend, T_t
Regression
5,963.19 72.05
6,035.23 0.331 6,033.571 71.992
6,107.28 0.491 6,105.834 72.001
6,179.33 0.485 6,177.806 72.000
6,251.37 0.800 6,255.479 72.183
6,323.42 0.633 6,327.813 72.188
6,395.46 0.938 6,401.301 72.230
6,467.51 1.082 6,475.202 72.284
6,539.56 0.917 6,545.846 72.231
6,611.60 1.512 6,617.215 72.203
6,683.65 1.795 6,689.643 72.211
6,755.69 2.072 6,761.668 72.205
6,827.74 1.172 6,834.487 72.224
6,899.79 0.435 6,906.880 72.230
6,971.83 0.574 6,980.913 72.288
7,043.88 0.426 7,052.086 72.252
7,115.92 0.703 7,128.925 72.400
7,187.97 0.696 7,202.393 72.435
7,260.02 0.964 7,276.582 72.491
7,332.06 0.409 7,344.111 72.331
7,404.11 1.080 7,415.886 72.313

7,476.15 1.605 7,487.726 72.298

 7,548.20 1.457 7,558.458 72.247
7,620.25 2.100 7,630.614 72.244
7,692.29 1.300 7,704.668 72.303
7,764.34 0.258 7,773.145 72.179
7,836.38 0.638 7,848.670 72.287
7,908.43 0.759 7,926.403 72.463
7,980.48 0.376 7,996.996 72.403
8,052.52 0.497 8,067.388 72.338
8,124.57 0.739 8,138.865 72.310
8,196.61 0.854 8,210.690 72.294
8,268.66 1.209 8,283.514 72.311
8,340.71 1.798 8,356.482 72.333
8,412.75 1.783 8,429.013 72.339
8,484.80 2.121 8,501.352 72.339
8,556.84 0.935 8,572.146 72.289
8,628.89 0.579 8,648.274 72.413
8,700.94 0.460 8,720.330 72.402
8,772.98 0.456 8,792.003 72.378
8,845.03 0.226 8,858.750 72.196
8,917.07 0.561 8,929.867 72.161
8,989.12 0.779 9,001.638 72.149
9,061.16 1.324 9,079.164 72.322
9,133.21 1.533 9,155.263 72.444
9,205.26 1.738 9,228.017 72.454
9,277.30 1.725 9,300.298 72.449
9,349.35 2.139 9,372.838 72.452
9,421.39 1.274 9,447.211 72.514
9,493.44 0.527 9,522.478 72.603
9,565.49 0.209 9,588.404 72.387
9,637.53 0.311 9,656.438 72.246
9,709.58 0.206 9,721.981 72.030
9,781.62 0.716 9,795.862 72.090
9,853.67 0.609 9,864.947 71.993
9,925.72 0.806 9,935.698 71.953
9,997.76 1.000 10,006.040 71.901
10,069.81 1.788 10,078.665 71.924
10,141.85 1.972 10,152.204 71.976
10,213.90 2.154 10,224.387 71.983
10,285.95 0.778 10,292.686 71.864
Revised Estimate for
Seasonal Factor, S_t

0.426
0.474
0.487
0.462
0.620
0.806
0.895
1.148
1.688
1.746
2.117
1.092
0.426
0.474
0.487
0.462
0.620
0.806
0.895
1.148

1.688
1.746
2.117
1.092
0.426
0.474
0.487
0.462
0.620
0.806
0.895
1.148
1.688
1.746
2.117
1.092
0.426
0.474
0.487
0.462
0.620
0.806
0.895
1.148
1.688
1.746
2.117
1.092
0.426
0.474
0.487
0.462
0.620
0.806
0.895
1.148
1.688
1.746
2.117
1.092
0.426
0.474
0.487
0.462
0.620
0.806
0.895
1.148
1.688
1.746
2.117
1.092
 Absolute Error,
Forecast Error, E_t A_t Bias MSE_t

2,570.89 570.89 570.89 570.89 325,913.85

2,896.25 -103.75 103.75 467.14 168,339.33
3,011.45 11.45 11.45 478.59 112,269.94
2,888.02 -2,111.98 2,111.98 -1,633.39 1,199,315.20
3,924.75 -75.25 75.25 -1,708.64 960,584.63
5,156.46 -843.54 843.54 -2,552.18 919,081.57
5,794.88 -1,205.12 1,205.12 -3,757.30 995,257.53
7,517.11 1,517.11 1,517.11 -2,240.20 1,158,551.68
11,173.52 1,173.52 1,173.52 -1,066.68 1,182,839.57
11,682.94 -317.06 317.06 -1,383.74 1,074,608.61
14,316.94 316.94 316.94 -1,066.80 986,048.94
7,459.96 -540.04 540.04 -1,606.84 928,182.03
2,942.12 -57.88 57.88 -1,664.72 857,041.11
3,310.62 -689.38 689.38 -2,354.10 829,769.59
3,438.16 438.16 438.16 -1,915.94 787,250.52
3,292.14 -1,707.86 1,707.86 -3,623.80 920,346.22
4,466.64 -533.36 533.36 -4,157.16 882,941.71
5,861.30 -1,138.70 1,138.70 -5,295.86 905,924.78
6,578.64 3,578.64 3,578.64 -1,717.22 1,532,277.77
8,514.75 514.75 514.75 -1,202.48 1,468,912.04
12,642.57 642.57 642.57 -559.90 1,418,625.70
13,203.43 2,203.43 2,203.43 1,643.53 1,574,829.71
16,156.57 156.57 156.57 1,800.10 1,507,424.70
8,408.56 -1,591.44 1,591.44 208.65 1,550,144.38
3,312.83 1,312.83 1,312.83 1,521.49 1,557,079.87
3,721.52 -1,278.48 1,278.48 243.01 1,560,057.71
3,861.16 -2,138.84 2,138.84 -1,895.83 1,671,709.38
3,696.26 696.26 696.26 -1,199.57 1,629,318.93
5,005.07 1,005.07 1,005.07 -194.51 1,607,968.69
6,558.14 558.14 558.14 363.64 1,564,753.92
7,350.36 350.36 350.36 714.00 1,518,237.72
9,509.61 -490.39 490.39 223.61 1,478,307.74
14,107.41 -892.59 892.59 -668.97 1,457,653.21
14,720.76 -279.24 279.24 -948.22 1,417,074.48
18,000.00 0.00 0.00 -948.22 1,376,586.64
9,359.17 1,359.17 1,359.17 410.95 1,389,663.17
3,682.36 -1,317.64 1,317.64 -906.69 1,399,028.66
 4,136.76 136.76 136.76 -769.93 1,362,704.32
4,286.11 286.11 286.11 -483.82 1,329,862.16
4,096.21 2,096.21 2,096.21 1,612.40 1,406,468.16
5,539.45 539.45 539.45 2,151.84 1,379,261.64
7,252.90 252.90 252.90 2,404.74 1,347,944.88
8,122.54 -3,877.46 3,877.46 -1,472.72 1,666,241.58
10,506.73 -3,493.27 3,493.27 -4,965.99 1,905,711.41
15,579.44 -420.56 420.56 -5,386.55 1,867,292.70
16,243.09 243.09 243.09 -5,143.46 1,827,983.98
19,845.01 -154.99 154.99 -5,298.45 1,789,601.79
10,310.62 -1,689.38 1,689.38 -6,987.83 1,811,776.89
4,055.21 -944.79 944.79 -7,932.62 1,793,018.69
4,551.54 2,551.54 2,551.54 -5,381.07 1,887,365.50
4,709.26 1,709.26 1,709.26 -3,671.82 1,907,643.81
4,495.60 2,495.60 2,495.60 -1,176.21 1,990,728.36
6,074.76 -925.24 925.24 -2,101.45 1,969,319.57
7,950.57 1,950.57 1,950.57 -150.88 2,003,308.56
8,895.20 895.20 895.20 744.32 1,981,455.48
11,489.69 1,489.69 1,489.69 2,234.01 1,985,700.37
17,014.92 -985.08 985.08 1,248.93 1,967,887.83
17,727.80 -2,272.20 2,272.20 -1,023.27 2,022,973.93
21,647.76 -352.24 352.24 -1,375.51 1,990,789.15
11,239.67 3,239.67 3,239.67 1,864.17 2,132,533.80
4,415.09
4,950.64
5,122.37
4,889.06
6,606.94

8,640.18
9,663.96
12,476.98
18,469.45
19,231.06
23,466.55
12,177.02
MAD_t

570.89
337.32
228.70
699.52
574.66
619.48
703.14
804.89
845.85
792.97
749.69
732.22
680.35
680.99
664.80
730.00
718.43
741.78
891.09
872.27
861.33
922.34
889.04
918.31
934.09
947.33
991.46
980.92
981.75
967.63
947.72
933.43
932.19
912.99
886.90
900.02
911.31
 890.93
875.42
905.94
897.00
881.66
951.33
1,009.10
996.02
979.66
962.11
977.26
976.60
1,008.10
1,021.85
1,050.19
1,047.83
1,064.55
1,061.47
1,069.12
1,067.64
1,088.41
1,075.93
1,111.99
Percentage
Error, % MAPE_t TS_t

28.5% 28.5% 1 SUMMARY OUTPUT

3.5% 16.0% 1.384838
0.4% 10.8% 2.092659 Regression Statistics
42.2% 18.7% -2.335022 Multiple R 0.956756
1.9% 15.3% -2.973282 R Square 0.915383
14.1% 15.1% -4.119895 Adjusted R Squ 0.913543
17.2% 15.4% -5.3436 Standard Error 309.9812
25.3% 16.6% -2.783246 Observations 48
11.7% 16.1% -1.261081
2.6% 14.7% -1.74502 ANOVA
2.3% 13.6% -1.422987 df SS
6.8% 13.0% -2.194479 Regression 1 47816011
1.9% 12.2% -2.446868 Residual 46 4420063
17.2% 12.5% -3.456861 Total 47 52236075
14.6% 12.7% -2.88196
34.2% 14.0% -4.964139 Coefficientsandard Err
10.7% 13.8% -5.786457 Intercept 5963.188 108.19
16.3% 14.0% -7.139418 X Variable 1 72.04597 3.229672
119.3% 19.5% -1.927112
6.4% 18.9% -1.378561
 MS F
47816011 497.6256
96088.34
36075

t Stat P-value
55.11775 1.162E-43
22.30752 2.619E-26
 5.4% 18.2% -0.650045
20.0% 18.3% 1.781921 Seasonal Factor
1.0% 17.5% 2.024766 Month Period Seasonal F
15.9% 17.5% 0.227217 January 1 0.426
65.6% 19.4% 1.628847 February 2 0.474
25.6% 19.6% 0.256521 March 3 0.487
35.6% 20.2% -1.912154 April 4 0.462
23.2% 20.3% -1.222905 May 5 0.620
25.1% 20.5% -0.19812 June 6 0.806
9.3% 20.1% 0.375803 July 7 0.895
5.0% 19.6% 0.753384 August 8 1.148
4.9% 19.2% 0.23956 September 9 1.688
6.0% 18.8% -0.717634 October 10 1.746
1.9% 18.3% -1.038585 November 11 2.117
0.0% 17.8% -1.069131 December 12 1.092
17.0% 17.7% 0.456605
26.4% 18.0% -0.994932 25,000
3.4% 17.6% -0.864189
7.2% 17.3% -0.552669
104.8% 19.5% 1.779809 20,000
10.8% 19.3% 2.398935
3.6% 18.9% 2.727505
32.3% 19.2% -1.548062 15,000
25.0% 19.4% -4.921188
2.6% 19.0% -5.408045
1.5% 18.6% -5.250267 10,000
0.8% 18.2% -5.507108
14.1% 18.1% -7.150413
18.9% 18.2% -8.122692 5,000
127.6% 20.3% -5.337848
57.0% 21.1% -3.593317
124.8% 23.1% -1.120003 -
13.2% 22.9% -2.005525
32.5% 23.1% -0.141731 Sale
11.2% 22.8% 0.701221
14.9% 22.7% 2.089589
5.5% 22.4% 1.169804
11.4% 22.2% -0.940149
1.6% 21.9% -1.278432
40.5% 22.2% 1.676416
actor

Sales
 ignificance F
2.619E-26

Lower 95%Upper 95%ower 95,0 pper 95,0 %

5745.413 6180.963 5745.413 6180.963
65.54498 78.54696 65.54498 78.54696
Forecas
t