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Source: Enerdata
Source: Enerdata
Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition
Energy intensity* Energy intensity evolution – G20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
4%
Source: Enerdata
2%
0%
Energy intensity in 2020 and 2021 still
-2% not on a 2°C yearly target
-4% G20 far from the levels needed to meet Paris
Agreement targets
-6%
An unexpected increase of the intensity for EU
and Japan
6%
4%
2%
-2%
16% -6%
14%
2002
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
< 2°C (world)
12%
10%
8% Source: Enerdata
6%
4%
2%
0%
+5.9% in 2021 after -4.9% in 2020
-2% OECD: the 2021 rebound will not offset the
-4%
-6% strong decline in 2020
-8% Non-OECD: 2021 exceeds that of 2019
-10%
-12% • China: +6.3% in 2021 after +1.3% in 2020
-14%
• India: a -6.7% decline in 2020 not offset by
+5.1% in 2021
Source: Enerdata
Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition
Carbon factor* Carbon factor evolution – G20
2,3
1,5%
2,2
1,0%
2,1 2°C pathway
0,5%
2
0,0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
-0,5%
Source: Enerdata
-1,0%
Average since
-1,5% Paris agreement
-2,0%
In 2021, degradation of carbon factor, first
-2,5%
-3,0%
time since 2014
-3,5% Recent growth in coal consumption, against
-4,0% trends of previous years
Rebound of energy consumption, in carbon-
intensive countries
Source: Enerdata
Coal Mtoe
4500
3000
12%
0
8% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
4% G20 G20 OECD G20 Non-OECD World
0% Source: Enerdata
8%
-12%
-16%
G20 USA China EU India Japan Brazil
Source: Enerdata
3000
2000
%/G20 62% 38% 11% 2% 1% 17% 30% 13% 4% G20: +5,5% in 2021
/G20 Growth driven by all countries, except USA and Japan
Stagnation in the USA with competition from renewables
in the power sector and increased gas prices
Source: Enerdata
20%
2010
2018
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2021
12%
Source: Enerdata
8%
Growth in the share of electricity in 2020
4%
and 2021 (24%) for the G20
0% Return to an upward trend after a stagnation in 2019
-4%
Limited drop in 2020 for electricity
-8% consumption in the G20: -0.7%
Impact of COVID-19 on industrial and commercial demand
in the OECD (-3.2%)
+3.2% in China in a context of robust economic growth
% 45% 55% 36% 6% 3% 5% 18% 12% 4% Sharp increase in 2021 (G20): +5.4%
/G20 Mainly driven by China: + 9.8% in 2021
Source: Enerdata Globally, upward trend in household electricity
consumption
Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition
Power Mix – G20
Power Mix 100% 70%
60%
65%
Evolution of power generation by source - G20 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2020 2021
Source: Enerdata
25 000
Strong drop of fossil fuels in the power mix
Power generation (TWh)
countries 70
60
2019
2020
50
2021
40
Wind power generation in the main countries (TWh) 30
20
700 10
-
600 EU China USA India Germany UK
500
Source: Enerdata
400
+13% in wind generation in 2020
TWh
300
108 GW installed in 2020, almost twice the 2019
installations level (56 GW)
200
Acceleration in China (+72 GW, nearly 3 times the volume
100 installed in 2019)
Steady installations: USA (+14 GW), EU (+10 GW)
0 (Netherlands, Spain, Germany), Australia and Brazil
20
400 10
-
350
EU China USA India Japan Germany
300
200
+19% in solar generation in 2020
150 +49 GW in China (+65% vs. 2019)
Acceleration in the EU (+18 GW) (Germany, the
100
Netherlands), the USA (+15 GW) and Brazil (+ 3GW)
50 Slowdown in India and Japan
The effects of health measures and the economic crisis were felt mainly in the sectors of services, transport, and
carbon-intensive electricity generation.
The passenger transport sector was strongly affected by the lockdowns and sanitary measures, especially air transport
The drop in electricity consumption in 2020 led to a drop in the production of flexible thermal power plants, particularly coal. But this effect is cyclical, as
shown by the rebound in electricity consumption and the production of coal-fired power stations in 2021
New RES capacities (wind, solar PV) have been growing despite the crisis.
Some delays observed in the construction of new projects in a few countries, such as India
By the end of 2021, energy efficiency and decarbonisation indicators returned to previous trends, far from
sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
$/bbl
80
80
60
60
40
40
20 20
0 -
2022-01
2008-01
2009-01
2010-01
2011-01
2012-01
2013-01
2014-01
2015-01
2016-01
2017-01
2018-01
2019-01
2020-01
2021-01
TTF spot EUR/MWh - Left Axis Brent USD/bbl - Right Axis
USD/bbl
Average 2010-2019 Brent price
€/MWh
2025-07
2020-01
2021-01
2021-07
2022-01
2022-07
2023-01
2023-07
2024-01
2024-07
2025-01
2026-01
Gas prices not expected to significantly decrease
in the short term
TTF spot EUR/MWh - Left Axis TTF forward price
160 85%
A few weeks later the EC presented its
140
80% REPowerEU plan to decrease
120 dependency on Russian imports and
75% more generally on natural gas
bcm
100
+25%
80 70%
60
65%
40 Security of gas supply: a foreseeable
20 60% risk?
0 Increasing dependency on imports vs. domestic
55% production
Industry
Tertiary
Power & energy
Residential
Russian Imports
Other final
Russia
Norway (55%) and the UK (19%) represent
43% most of the European production
Domestic EU: domestic production only accounts for 16% of
production Imports consumption
84% Norway
16% Including Norway, domestic production in Europe reaches
19%
Other
more than 40% of total consumption
(LNG)
14%
massively
100 Comparison of natural gas demand
reductions in 2030 vs. 2019
EnerFuture European commission
50 Reference Fit-for-55 Mix
EnerBase EnerBlue EnerGreen 2020 scenario scenario
0
0
-20
2015 2020 2025 2030
Buildings - sufficiency Buildings - efficiency Buildings - heat pumps -40
Bcm/year
-60
Buildings - others Industry EnerGreen
-80
2 500
2 000
In the mid-term (2025-2030):
1 500 Boost renewables, realistic?
Boost energy efficiency and suffiency in
1 000 electricity uses despite electrification
Expect relaxed LNG market and successful
500 diversification of supply
-
2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2030 MIX-EC
Hydro Biomass Wind Solar Nuclear Oil Gas Coal
Source: Enerdata
Prospective
The EU has trapped itself into a natural gas dependency on imports, especially from Russia
No miracle solutions in the short term, significant risk on natural gas supply for next winter
Addressing energy consumption with efficiency and sufficiency measures is a key option for the EU, which has
not been significantly leveraged so far
There is room for strong reductions in gas final consumption, especially in buildings with efficiency and sufficiency measures (-40 bcm in 2030 vs.
2019) and roll-out of heat pumps (-37 bcm in 2030 vs.2019)
In the power sector, decreasing gas power generation will depend on the ability to boost the penetration of renewables and flexibility solutions
Manfred
HAFNER
Professor at
• SciencesPo Paris, School
of International Affairs
• Johns Hopkins
University SAIS Europe