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AGENDA

Analysis of 2020 and 2021 key energy and climate figures


Analysis of trends by energy

The impact of the crisis on energy systems

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


2020 AND 2021 DATA ANALYSIS

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Key energy and climate figures
for G20 countries

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Energy and Climate key figures for G20* in 2020 and 2021

+5.9% +5% 11.4


Gtep +5.9% 27,5
GtCO2

-3.2% -4% -4.9%


2021 economic Rebound in energy Rebound in CO2
recovery consumption emissions** with
At purchasing power parity 2021 level > 2019 level

2019-21 2009-19 2019-21 2009-19 2019-21 2009-19


+1.3% +3.6% +0.4% +1.7% +0.3% +1.3%
%/year %/year %/year

*G20 countries represent around 80% of global energy consumption


** CO2 emissions from energy combustion (> 80% of CO2 emissions)

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Economic recovery in G20 countries
The 2021 GDP exceeds its 2019 value
GDP growth (%/year) in G20 countries G20 economic growth:
2019 2020 2021 2009-19 +5.9% for 2021
10%
-3.2% for 2020
8%
+1.3% 2021 level vs. 2019 level
6%
4%
2% OECD +4.9% (2021) and -4.6% (2020)
0% (+0.1% 2021 level vs. 2019 level)
-2%
-4%
United States: strong rebound (+6.5%)
-6% EU, Japan…: heavily impacted in 2020, lower
-8% 2021 rebound than the OECD average
-10%
Non-OECD +7% (2021) and -1.5%
(2020) (+2.8% 2021 level vs. 2019 level)
% 53% 47% 24% 9% 4% 3% 19% 17% 5% China: 2021 +8.1%, after +2.3% in 2020
/G20 India: 8.9% rebound in 2021
GDP
2021 growth slightly lower than China/India
for the rest of the countries

Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Energy consumption
2021, back to 2019 level for G20 countries
G20 energy consumption growth:
Total G20 energy consumption growth (%/year)
+5% in 2021 after -4% in 2020
2019 2020 2021 2009-2019
+0.4% 2021 level vs. 2019 level
12%
Growth mainly driven by Asia
10%
8%
OECD: 2021 stays below the 2019
6%
4%
level, with a 7.4% decrease in
2% 2020
0%
United States: +4.7% rebound in 2021
-2%
Similar in other countries: EU (+4.5%),
-4%
Japan (+3.6%)
-6%
-8%
-10% Non-OECD: strong growth in 2021 after
stagnation in 2020
China: 5.2% increase in 2021 (+2.2% in 2020)
% 44% 56% 32% 8% 7% 3% 19% 12% 3% India: +4.7% rebound in 2021 after a 5.6%
/G20 decrease in 2020

Source: Enerdata
Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition
Energy intensity* Energy intensity evolution – G20

Still far from a 2°C path, 1,0%

the health crisis has slowed the reduction


0,5%
0,0%
-0,5%
-1,0%
-1,5%
Energy intensity trends (%/year) in G20 countries -2,0% Average since
-2,5% 2000
-3,0%
2019 2020 2021 2009-2019 -3,5% 2 °C yearly target
6% -4,0%

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
4%
Source: Enerdata

2%

0%
Energy intensity in 2020 and 2021 still
-2% not on a 2°C yearly target
-4% G20 far from the levels needed to meet Paris
Agreement targets
-6%
An unexpected increase of the intensity for EU
and Japan

*“Energy intensity” = energy consumption / GDP Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Energy-related CO2 emissions – G20
2021 emissions level above 2019 8%

6%

4%

2%

Energy-related CO2 emissions (%/year) in G20 countries 0%

-2%

2019 2020 2021 2009-2019 -4%

16% -6%
14%

2002
2000
2001

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
< 2°C (world)
12%
10%
8% Source: Enerdata
6%
4%
2%
0%
+5.9% in 2021 after -4.9% in 2020
-2% OECD: the 2021 rebound will not offset the
-4%
-6% strong decline in 2020
-8% Non-OECD: 2021 exceeds that of 2019
-10%
-12% • China: +6.3% in 2021 after +1.3% in 2020
-14%
• India: a -6.7% decline in 2020 not offset by
+5.1% in 2021

% 39% 61% 38% 8% 7% 2% 17% 10% 4%


/G20

Source: Enerdata
Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition
Carbon factor* Carbon factor evolution – G20

2020 didn’t significantly change the trend


2021 went in opposite direction to the 2°C target tCO2/tep
2,6

2,5 Trend since Paris


agreement
Carbon factor growth evolution – G20 2,4

2,3
1,5%
2,2
1,0%
2,1 2°C pathway
0,5%
2
0,0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
-0,5%
Source: Enerdata
-1,0%
Average since
-1,5% Paris agreement
-2,0%
In 2021, degradation of carbon factor, first
-2,5%

-3,0%
time since 2014
-3,5% Recent growth in coal consumption, against
-4,0% trends of previous years
Rebound of energy consumption, in carbon-
intensive countries

* CO2 emissions / energy consumption Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Trends by energy

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Key energy data for G20 countries in 2020 and 2021
+5% 2019-21
+5.9%
+0.4%
-4% -3.2%
ENERGY 2010-19
CONSUMPTION +1.7% ECONOMIC
GROWTH

+5% +4.4% +5.5% +5.4%


-4% -8.2% -1.8% -0.7%
COAL OIL GAS ELECTRICITY

2019 2009-19 2019 2009-19 2019 2009-19 2019 2009-19


-2% +0.2% +0.4% +1.1% +2.6% +2.8% +1.6% +3.1%
%/year %/year %/year %/year
(Share of total: 31%) (Share of total: 27%) (Share of total: 22%)

Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Primary Consumption of Coal (Mtoe)

Coal Mtoe
4500

Rebound in 2021 exceeds the 2019 level by 0.8% 4000


3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
Trends in Coal Consumption in G20 Countries (%/year) 1000
500
2019 2020 2021 2009-2019
0
28% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
24% G20 G20 OECD G20 Non-OECD World
20%
16% Source: Enerdata
12%
8%
4% Sharp drop in 2020 (G20): -4.5%
0%
-4% Despite slight growth in China
-8%
-12% Strong drops in Brazil, Russia (-11.7%), the USA
-16% and the EU (-18% and -18.7% resp.)
-20%
-24% Mainly due to lower demand for electricity

Strong rebound in 2021 (G20):+5.6%


% 19% 81% 61% 11% 0% 3% 7% 5% 3% % 19% in81%
+4.6% China, 60%
+4.9% in12%
India 0% 3% 6%
/G20 /G20
+14.5% in the USA
Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Primary Consumption of Oil (Mtoe)
Oil Mtep

After a historic fall in 2020,


5000

2021 recovery insufficient to exceed the 2019 level


4000

3000

Trends in oil consumption in G20 countries (%/year) 2000

2019 2020 2021 2009-2019 1000

12%
0
8% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
4% G20 G20 OECD G20 Non-OECD World

0% Source: Enerdata

-4% Record fall in 2020 (G20): -8.2%


-8%
Decrease everywhere, except in China, after
-12%
regular growth (0.5-2%/year since 2000)
-16%
-12.3% fall in the OECD, and -15.2 % in the USA
-20%

Recovery in 2021 (G20): +4.4%


%/G20 54% 46% 22% 7% 3% 5% 23% 14% 5% %/G20 55% Strong
45% growth
23% in7%China3% 5% (+2.2%
and India 24%and14%
/G20 +5.4%, resp.)
/G20
Strong rebound in the USA (+8.5%) and
Source: Enerdata moderate growth in the EU (+2.5%)

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Transport sector
Strongly impacted by the crisis: 2021 energy consumption remains lower than in 2019

Evolution of Energy Consumption in Transport


(including goods and domestic air transport)
Sharp drop in 2020 for the G20: -12%
Economic downturn (goods)
2020 2021 2010-2019
Lockdowns (passenger road transport + especially air
16% transport*)
USA: higher impact, significant weight of air transport
12%

8%

4% Rebound in 2021 with disparities


China: one of the only countries whose 2021 consumption
0% level exceeds 2019
In the USA, significant increase, as transport is very
-4% sensitive to the economic recovery
In Europe, weak rebound due to moderate economic
-8% recovery and to health measures still imposed

-12%

-16%
G20 USA China EU India Japan Brazil

Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Gas Mtoe
Consumption of Natural Gas (Mtoe)

1.8% overall growth in consumption over 2020-2021 4000

3000

2000

Trends in Gas Consumption in G20 Countries (%/year) 1000

2019 2020 2021 2009-2019 0


1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
28% G20 G20 OECD G20 Non-OECD World
24% Source: Enerdata
20%
16% OECD: -2% in 2020, limited drop
12% Continuous substitution of coal by gas (abundance of gas
8% supply on the market, air pollution policies and low gas
4% prices).
0%
-4% Non-OECD: -1.4% in 2020
-8% China (+7.2%): substitution coal / gas, cold winter
Russia (-3.3%): weak demand for power generation, mild
winter

%/G20 62% 38% 11% 2% 1% 17% 30% 13% 4% G20: +5,5% in 2021
/G20 Growth driven by all countries, except USA and Japan
Stagnation in the USA with competition from renewables
in the power sector and increased gas prices
Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Electricity 30%
Electricity share in final consumption

Strong recovery of demand in 2021 (+5.4%) 25%

20%

Trends in Electricity Consumption in G20 Countries (%/year) 15%


China India
United States European Union
2019 2020 2021 2009-2019 10% G20

2010

2018
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

2019
2020
2021
12%
Source: Enerdata
8%
Growth in the share of electricity in 2020
4%
and 2021 (24%) for the G20
0% Return to an upward trend after a stagnation in 2019

-4%
Limited drop in 2020 for electricity
-8% consumption in the G20: -0.7%
Impact of COVID-19 on industrial and commercial demand
in the OECD (-3.2%)
+3.2% in China in a context of robust economic growth

% 45% 55% 36% 6% 3% 5% 18% 12% 4% Sharp increase in 2021 (G20): +5.4%
/G20 Mainly driven by China: + 9.8% in 2021
Source: Enerdata Globally, upward trend in household electricity
consumption
Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition
Power Mix – G20
Power Mix 100% 70%

Renewables gained momentum in 2020 and 2021, 80%

60%
65%

but coal bounced back in 2021 40%


60%
20%
2°C Pathway
0% 55%

Evolution of power generation by source - G20 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2020 2021

Coal Gas Oil


Nuclear Hydro Biomass
30 000 Wind Solar Fossil fuel share

Source: Enerdata
25 000
Strong drop of fossil fuels in the power mix
Power generation (TWh)

20 000 in 2020: -1.7pt to 60% (G20)


Biggest drop in the 21st century
15 000
Cyclical effect of falling electricity demand, especially in
OECD countries
10 000
Rebound for coal in 2021: +0.8%, slight
5 000 drop for gas (G20)
EU-USA rise in coal
0

Strong growth in 2020 and 2021 for wind


Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Biomass Wind Solar and solar
Source: Enerdata
New records in installed capacities in 2020: growth
remains in 2021

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Wind Wind power: new installed capacities (GW)

Acceleration in China, steady growth in other G20 GW


80

countries 70
60
2019

2020
50
2021
40
Wind power generation in the main countries (TWh) 30
20

700 10
-
600 EU China USA India Germany UK

500
Source: Enerdata
400
+13% in wind generation in 2020
TWh

300
108 GW installed in 2020, almost twice the 2019
installations level (56 GW)
200
Acceleration in China (+72 GW, nearly 3 times the volume
100 installed in 2019)
Steady installations: USA (+14 GW), EU (+10 GW)
0 (Netherlands, Spain, Germany), Australia and Brazil

+16% in wind generation in 2021


EU China India USA Germany UK
Delayed projects in 2020 are catching up
Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Solar power: new installed capacities (GW)
Solar GW
Strong growth and limited impact of the health crisis 60
2019
50
2020
40
2021

Solar power generation in the main countries (TWh) 30

20

400 10

-
350
EU China USA India Japan Germany

300

250 Source: Enerdata


TWh

200
+19% in solar generation in 2020
150 +49 GW in China (+65% vs. 2019)
Acceleration in the EU (+18 GW) (Germany, the
100
Netherlands), the USA (+15 GW) and Brazil (+ 3GW)
50 Slowdown in India and Japan

0 +22% in solar generation in 2021


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Catch-up in India (+11GW) following delayed projects in
EU China India USA Japan Germany 2020
Source: Enerdata
Increase in additional capacities in China, the EU and
the USA

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Synthesis

2020 and 2021 figures

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


2020 and 2021 figures: key takeaways
The pandemic has affected countries in various ways. Globally, economic activity and energy demand in 2021
exceed 2019 levels, and the CO2 emissions rebound in 2021 more than offsets the 2020 drop.
Non-OECD countries have seen less of a recession and a stronger rebound than OECD countries
China saw its economy grow in 2020; the economic rebound in 2021 was stronger in the USA than in Europe, which has seen several lockdowns.

The effects of health measures and the economic crisis were felt mainly in the sectors of services, transport, and
carbon-intensive electricity generation.
The passenger transport sector was strongly affected by the lockdowns and sanitary measures, especially air transport
The drop in electricity consumption in 2020 led to a drop in the production of flexible thermal power plants, particularly coal. But this effect is cyclical, as
shown by the rebound in electricity consumption and the production of coal-fired power stations in 2021

New RES capacities (wind, solar PV) have been growing despite the crisis.
Some delays observed in the construction of new projects in a few countries, such as India

By the end of 2021, energy efficiency and decarbonisation indicators returned to previous trends, far from
sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


And tomorrow?

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Look back on energy prices: several cycles since 2008
Evolution of Oil and European Gas prices

180 Ukrainian 160


Financial crisis and Abundant supply, US Crisis
160 rebound shale oil & gas 140
COVID19
140
and 120
rebound
120 Demand growth, Gas
especially Asia oversupply 100
100 LNG
€/MWh

$/bbl
80
80
60
60

40
40

20 20

0 -

2022-01
2008-01

2009-01

2010-01

2011-01

2012-01

2013-01

2014-01

2015-01

2016-01

2017-01

2018-01

2019-01

2020-01

2021-01
TTF spot EUR/MWh - Left Axis Brent USD/bbl - Right Axis

Source: Enerdata, Energymarketprice

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Inflation and economic slowdown expected to lower oil demand
and release pressure on prices.
European gas market will remain tight in the short term
Projection of European gas price and brent price from forward price Global economic slowdown, inflation,
Covid19 lockdowns in China lead to
lower energy demand than expected
120 140
Oil supply deficit to be reduced in
100 120 the near term despite EU embargo on
100
Russian imports. Rising oil production
80 outside Russia
80

USD/bbl
Average 2010-2019 Brent price
€/MWh

60 Oil demand impacted by high prices.


60
In the EU high prices are also fueld by €
40
40 depreciation against $
20 Average 2010-2019 gas TTF price 20 Already tight LNG market to face
additionnal demand from Europe
0 0
Limited additionnal LNG supply in the short term
2020-07

2025-07
2020-01

2021-01

2021-07

2022-01

2022-07

2023-01

2023-07

2024-01

2024-07

2025-01

2026-01
Gas prices not expected to significantly decrease
in the short term
TTF spot EUR/MWh - Left Axis TTF forward price

Brent USD/bbl - Right Axis Brent Forward price

Source: Enerdata, Energymarketprice, as of 28th of June 2022


Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition
Gas crisis in the EU
from a transition fuel to a threat in security of supply
EU natural gas consumption, Share of Natural gas Imports In early February 2022, the EC has
2019 (pre-Covid19) (Pipe+LNG) & consumption from endorsed natural gas as a transition
storage vs. consumption, EU+UK fuel
200
90%
180

160 85%
A few weeks later the EC presented its
140
80% REPowerEU plan to decrease
120 dependency on Russian imports and
75% more generally on natural gas
bcm

100
+25%
80 70%
60
65%
40 Security of gas supply: a foreseeable
20 60% risk?
0 Increasing dependency on imports vs. domestic
55% production
Industry

Tertiary
Power & energy

Residential
Russian Imports

Other final

Large dependency on a single supplier: Russia


50%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Source: Enerdata Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Gas sources
The EU relies too heavily on undiversified natural gas imports
Imports account for more than 80% of
Sources of natural gas domestic consumption natural gas domestic consumption in the EU
Russia alone represents 40% (more than 90% of which from
in the EU in 2019
pipelines)
LNG fastly growing (1/4 of total import volumes)

Russia
Norway (55%) and the UK (19%) represent
43% most of the European production
Domestic EU: domestic production only accounts for 16% of
production Imports consumption
84% Norway
16% Including Norway, domestic production in Europe reaches
19%
Other
more than 40% of total consumption
(LNG)
14%

Other (pipeline) Addressing reliance on Russian natural


8%
gas means:
Reducing demand for natural gas
Diversifying gas supply

Source: Cedigaz, Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Breaking down flexibility options highlights the crucial
role of demand
Potential substitutes of Russian imports in EU gas supply by 2030 European gas production expected to
250 decrease
Norway’s production expected to drop near
90bcm/year around 2030 (vs. 120bcm/year in 2019)
200 +33 bcm
-60 bcm
LNG regasification capacities expected
150 -33 bcm to increase, but supply could be limited
40 bcm/year of additional regas capacity already
expected by 2023 (approved or under construction)
100 190 bcm Ramp-up of production from exporters, re-routing of
existing exchanges realistic to some extent
131 bcm
50
Biogas could play a significant role by
0
2030
Imports from Decrease of Diversification of Gas Required demand Around 30 bcm/year of biomethane by 2030
Russia in 2019 European supply decarbonization reductions by according to EnerFuture scenarios (limited
production (incl. (biogas, H2) 2030 development of H2)
Norway)
Reducing demand as a key contributor
Sources: Enerdata, Cedigaz, European Commission The European Commission fit-for-55 Mix scenario
anticipated around 90 bcm of demand reduction
between 2019 and 2030, meaning additional efforts
are required

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Strong potential to decrease gas consumption
Ending reliance on Russian gas could be
Main final demand levers by 2030 in EU to reduce natural gas demand largely addressed by demand-side actions
(EnerGreen scenario)
250
Heat pump roll-out to play a key role as a driver of both
efficiency and decarbonisation in buildings heating needs
200 Energy sufficiency is a potentially significant driver in
the short term if unlocked
-130
Industry’s potential for electrification, energy efficiency
150 bcm
and circularity/material efficiency can contribute
Bcm/year

massively
100 Comparison of natural gas demand
reductions in 2030 vs. 2019
EnerFuture European commission
50 Reference Fit-for-55 Mix
EnerBase EnerBlue EnerGreen 2020 scenario scenario
0
0
-20
2015 2020 2025 2030
Buildings - sufficiency Buildings - efficiency Buildings - heat pumps -40

Bcm/year
-60
Buildings - others Industry EnerGreen
-80

Source: Enerdata, EnerFuture scenarios -100


Power sector
-120
Final demand
-140
Source: European Commission, Enerdata (EnerFuture scenarios)

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


No silver bullet to decrease the share of natural gas
in the EU power mix
In the short term, emergency solutions:
Slowdown in coal phase out. Not a good news for
EU power generation mix current GHG emissions but covered by EU ETS
TWh 2020 drop in fossil Nuclear power plants extension in Germany?
3 500 dispatchable power
2021 coal Limit electricity demand
generation
rebound
3 000

2 500

2 000
In the mid-term (2025-2030):
1 500 Boost renewables, realistic?
Boost energy efficiency and suffiency in
1 000 electricity uses despite electrification
Expect relaxed LNG market and successful
500 diversification of supply

-
2016
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2030 MIX-EC
Hydro Biomass Wind Solar Nuclear Oil Gas Coal

Source: Enerdata

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Synthesis

Prospective

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Prospective analysis: key takeaways
Economic rebound after Covid-19 led to a strong demand in raw materials and energy.
Oil price started rising in early 2021. Natural gas price in Europe surged in mid 2021, together with electricity price
Inflation is reaching unprecedented levels in 2022

Ukrainian crisis adds pressure to already tight markets


EU Gas prices not expected to significantly decrease in the short term with limlited additional and quickly available LNG supply
At the global level, high energy prices and inflation result in a slowdown in economic growth. China is still facing Covid-19 lockdowns. Growth in energy
demand is expected to slow down as well
With oil supply deficit to be reduced, oil price is expected to decrease in the near term

The EU has trapped itself into a natural gas dependency on imports, especially from Russia
No miracle solutions in the short term, significant risk on natural gas supply for next winter

Addressing energy consumption with efficiency and sufficiency measures is a key option for the EU, which has
not been significantly leveraged so far
There is room for strong reductions in gas final consumption, especially in buildings with efficiency and sufficiency measures (-40 bcm in 2030 vs.
2019) and roll-out of heat pumps (-37 bcm in 2030 vs.2019)
In the power sector, decreasing gas power generation will depend on the ability to boost the penetration of renewables and flexibility solutions

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Insights from energy expert

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Guest speaker – Energy expert
Over more than 30 years of professional career, Manfred HAFNER
has extensively consulted on energy issues for governments,
international organisations (EC, WB, IEA…) and industry, and has
coordinated several major interdisciplinary research projects for the
European Commission.

Manfred
HAFNER
Professor at
• SciencesPo Paris, School
of International Affairs
• Johns Hopkins
University SAIS Europe

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


Questions & Answers

Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition


www.enerdata.net

Thank you for your attention !

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company incorporated in 1991, headquartered in
Grenoble, with a subsidiary in Singapore. The
company specialises in the analysis and forecasting of
energy and climate issues, at world and country level.

Leveraging its globally recognised databases, intelligence


For more information: research@enerdata.net
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Global Energy Trends - 2022 Edition

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