Pakistan in 2021 - Changes, Challenges, and A Roadmap To Stability - South Asian Voices

9/4/22, 1:15 PM Pakistan in 2021: Changes, Challenges, and a Roadmap to Stability – South Asian Voices
Geopolitics & Diplomacy
Pakistan in 2021: Changes,

Challenges, and a Roadmap to
Stability
Written by Salma Malik January 25, 2022 11 min read
On the first of January newspapers of Pakistan and India once again carried a small non-
descript column stating that both countries had shared a list of their respective nuclear
installations along with an additional list of detained fisherfolk by both countries. The
newspaper releases are a yearly reminder of the 1988 Confidence-Building Measure (CBM)
between the two countries on Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations and
Facilities. The agreement has been routinized to a mere exchange of lists and in this age
of increased transparency and “eyes in the sky” this routine practice appears to be perhaps
a relic of an earlier time. However, while the pre-existing CBMs between the two countries
require a serious and honest review, this yearly exchange reminds one of a commitment,
bl f th t did ( d till) kb t
https://southasianvoices.org/pakistan-in-2021-changes-challenges-and-a-roadmap-to-stability/ I di d P ki t H it 1/9
or semblances of one, that did (and can still) work between India and Pakistan. However, it
is also a reminder of an elusive and intermittent peace process that now appears more
improbable.
In the past year, the only silver-lining in this fractious relation was the renewal of ceasefire
on the Line of Control (LoC). Tense relations with India are not the only challenge with
which Pakistan enters into 2022, the most critical being the looming humanitarian and
possible civil conflict in Afghanistan. In the worst-case scenario, Pakistan faces a large
inflow of refugees at a time where there appears to be no respite from the pandemic. At
the domestic level, besides better governance, economic stability remains the biggest
priority, which has been highlighted in the long-awaited National Security Policy (NSP),
released in early 2022. Along with these immediate challenges, with the Indian Ocean set
to become a center of U.S.-China competition, Pakistan will also need to take a longer-
term approach to its strategy and position in the region.
The Pandemic and Emerging Security Threats
For Pakistan, 2021 started on a low note. Reeling from COVID-19 cases, the immediate
concern at the hands of decisionmakers was vaccinating one of the most populous
countries of the world. The challenge was not only to get a steady flow of effective
vaccines but also to convince the public, the majority of which held strong apprehensions,
to get vaccinated. The government had campaigned and used faith leaders during the
initial COVID-19 wave to convince people to observe preventive measures, and used these
measures once again along to enforce compliance to prevent a human catastrophe from
unfolding. Along with the challenges of the vaccine drive, was the need to acquire enough
vaccines. With the United States and many countries in the West focused on vaccinating
their own populations in the first half of 2021, Pakistan turned to China and Russia for
vaccine procurement. While Pakistan hit a breakthrough with less than 1,000 recorded
cases of COVID-19 per day in June, the Delta strain and eventually Omicron have once
again brought immense pressure on the already fragile health system.
With the Indian Ocean set to become a center of U.S.-China

competition, Pakistan will also need to take a longer-term
approach to its strategy and position in the region.
In the long-term, the pandemic has signaled the need for Pakistan to fast-track actions to
reach targets of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that it has set to achieve by
2030 Of th t SDG P ki t h b bl t
https://southasianvoices.org/pakistan-in-2021-changes-challenges-and-a-roadmap-to-stability/
k i bl l 2/9
2030. Of the seventeen SDGs, Pakistan has been able to make some viable progress only
in one area—climate change. However, despite commitments from both India and
Pakistan countries during the COP26 summit towards reducing global greenhouse gas
emissions, the ever-pervasive environment of non-cooperation and cold conflict makes

any regional cooperation on appear impossible.
India-Pakistan Relations: LoC Ceasefire but Ongoing Tensions
With the pandemic bringing transnational threats to the forefront, 2020 and 2021 could
have been an unprecedented opportunity to change the narrative and support human
security. Defense budgets, however, have continued their upward trend in 2021.
Nationalism has sharpened under Prime Minister Modi’s government, with Indian Home
Minister Amit Shah’s threats of “surgical strikes” in an October speech drawing attention
in Pakistan. With key state elections coming up in the year ahead similar rhetoric could
create further tensions in India-Pakistan ties.
Perhaps the only positive sign in India-Pakistan relations was the revival of the 2003
ceasefire agreement along the volatile LoC. Though not a formally signed agreement, the
2003 commitment had provided a respite to people across the divide for several years
after its signing. Prior to the revival of the agreement, the LoC had become a pressure
gauge for the two adversaries, becoming a hot zone whenever the relationship suffered a
setback. The LoC reached a record 5,133 ceasefire violations resulting in 46 fatalities in
2020, and by the end January 2021 alone, there were a reported 299 violations and one
fatality. While the ceasefire has provided a relief to the civilian population residing across
the divide, it should not be seen as a precursor to warming ties between the two
neighbors, nor a breakthrough on Kashmir. Pakistan has continued to protest the
revocation of Article 370 and 35A in 2019, and raise concerns about the human rights
situation and lockdowns in Kashmir in international forums including the Organization of
Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the United Nations. As there has been limited response
from the international community, the ceasefire breakthrough on the LoC was met with
mixed sentiments in Pakistan.
The U.S. Afghanistan Withdrawal
Of the events in 2021, perhaps the one with the greatest long-term implications for
Pakistan was the hastened U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Despite the Doha Accords
setting up an imminent U.S. departure, the abruptness of the withdrawal and surrender by
the sitting Ghani regime resulted in a near crisis. The Taliban’s eventual march into Kabul,
with a victorious air around them was worrisome for all concerned, including Pakistan, as
it would encourage militant elements within the country. In the case of an active conflict
https://southasianvoices.org/pakistan-in-2021-changes-challenges-and-a-roadmap-to-stability/ 3/9
it would encourage militant elements within the country. In the case of an active conflict
within Afghanistan, Islamabad’s focus has been on preventing a humanitarian
catastrophe. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s immediate appeal to the world leadership
focused on the humanitarian crisis unfolding and uncertain future as Islamabad dealt with
the fallout of negative press for the developments in Kabul due to its historic ties to the
Taliban. The U.S.-Pakistan trust deficit remains just as wide, if not more so than ever
before, with Pakistan raising frustration over being scapegoated for the U.S. failures in the
withdrawal. Mass scale evacuation of Afghans and foreign nationals was made possible
through Islamabad’s cooperation and active help. In the initial months, with little foreign
humanitarian assistance able to enter the country due to aid suspensions and freezing of
assets, Pakistan provided food supplies, medical assistance, and essential items to
Afghanistan.
Entering 2022, Afghanistan remains dangerously close to a humanitarian crisis and civil
conflict. A repeat of the 1980s or 1990s is not affordable for any state in the region, more
specifically Pakistan which faces critical economic and governance issues. Pakistan’s
convening of the special OIC Meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers to generate
support and solutions to the humanitarian crisis in terms of food shortages, displacement
of people, and a potential economic collapse in Afghanistan, was successful with pledging
of a fund for overcoming humanitarian crisis in the country. While the promise of aid by
the OIC member states as well as Western capitals is a first step towards averting a
humanitarian catastrophe from unfolding in Afghanistan, with no governance road map
available to the Taliban regime, the crisis is by no means over.
Pakistan’s utmost concern has been the use of Afghan soil by proxy or independent
elements seeking a haven and hurting its interests and security. Although Taliban
leadership offered assurances shortly after taking power that Afghanistan would not be a
haven for militants as the time has progressed there has been a visibly stronger presence
of the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K) and little progress on a viable action against the
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) assets operating from Afghanistan. Pakistan’s attempt
to complete the fencing of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, also referred to as the Durand
Line, has also been met with resistance by the Taliban leadership. The Taliban facilitated
talks between the Pakistan government and the TTP, which resulted in a month-long
ceasefire beginning November 9, that could be further extended. However, a month later
the TTP unilaterally ended the ceasefire on the pretext that the government had reneged
on promises made in the initial stages of peace talks. Where Pakistan aims to have a
stable enough Afghanistan, peace within the country is most important, as the entire
thrust of country’s geoeconomic vision relies on peace and stability.
Moving Forward: An Economic Focus
Physical security is integral when it comes to securing Islamabad’s economic assets.

Among these assets is the highly visible, and much criticized China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor, which appears to be the country’s only economic lifeline for the foreseeable
future. However, for international and domestic audiences alike, the question remains of
whether Pakistan will be able to use this economic channel to find its footing. For
Islamabad, the economic angle of CPEC is the least of its concerns as the country tries to
adjust to shifting geopolitical fault lines amidst renewed U.S.-China competition. While the
United States has seen a significant shift in leadership with the election of Joe Biden in
November 2020, predictably, the broader U.S. strategy towards South Asia has not
changed and there has not been any significant tilt favorable to Pakistan. Although the
approach of the administration may have changed, U.S. reservations on CPEC remain the
same as those held by the Trump administration.
Many policymakers in Islamabad and elsewhere have certainly

concluded that Pakistan’s relevance and relations with United
States at best are transactional. This makes the country’s tilt
towards China a predictable move, however, Islamabad must also
safeguard its interests and act with prudence in dealing with
Beijing.
Beijing.
Where on one hand the pandemic has hurt economy worldwide, for Pakistan balancing
economic lifelines for its citizens while establishing public health measures was a delicate
situation. Pakistan also remained engaged in strengthening measures to tackle money
laundering and illicit financing per the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) requirements. As
noted in World Bank assessments, effective micro-lockdowns, record-high remittance
inflows, and supportive monetary policy helped in strengthening and recovering of the
economy in fiscal year 2021. But owing to increased domestic demand, imports
outweighed the exports, leading to a large trade deficit. To have a sustainable economic
growth, Pakistan will need to enhance exports, private investments, as well as identify the
key factors that are hindering exports.
Roadmap to Stability
Many policymakers in Islamabad and elsewhere have certainly concluded that Pakistan’s
relevance and relations with United States at best are transactional. This makes the
country’s tilt towards China a predictable move, however, Islamabad must also safeguard
its interests and act with prudence in dealing with Beijing. China’s strategic culture has
long stressed the broad contours of non-intervention an coexistence—however, this differs
strongly from much of the West’s perceptions of Beijing. As the United States enters what
some have referred to as a “new Cold War” with the QUAD and AUKUS as its initial
containment tools, the Indian Ocean will be an active zone of enhancing capabilities and
potential conflict, where once again Pakistan would find itself in the eye of the storm.
Islamabad must act wisely and channel its policymaking beyond the immediate to look
more long-term and beyond the limited choices it exercises.
Besides setting up a viable governance road map, Pakistan’s utmost concern is and needs
to be economic recovery and stability. While appealing for geoeconomics, Pakistan’s
foreign policy outlook remains confined to a limited circle of countries, with little focus on
capitals and markets of Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. The need is to broaden
the horizon, and as many perceive, CPEC would prove a proverbial gateway to the world
for Pakistan. As Pakistan assesses these challenges, the National Security Division has,
after seven long years, chartered what it terms as a “citizen-centric” National Security
Policy (NSP) with economic security at the core. The NSP comes at a critical time when
the country faces multiple challenges in a rapidly altering geopolitical environment. One
can only hope that it becomes the promised road map for the country’s path to progress
and stability.
***
Click here to read this article in Urdu.
Image 1: bm1632 via Flickr
Image 2: AFP via Getty Images
Posted in: Afghanistan-Pakistan, China, Economics, Economy, Foreign Policy,

Geopolitics, India-Pakistan Relations, Pakistan, Politics, Taliban, United States
Share this:
Subscribe to our newsletter
Stay informed about the subcontinent. Sign up for our newsletter below.
Email address Subscribe
Related articles
Geopolitical Maneuvering of Nepal’s Tourism Sector

On August 16, Kathmandu’s Tribhuvan University inaugurated Nepal’s second Confucius…
Written by Rudabeh Shahid, Saurav Raj Pant
Framing Identity within Pakistan’s Foreign Policy

Since independence, Pakistan’s national identity has remained enigmatic despite religious…
Written by Farhan Hanif Siddiqi
Why India’s Pragmatism in Afghanistan Can Work

On August 12, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar stated…
Written by Sarral Sharma
© 2022

Pakistan in 2021 - Changes, Challenges, and A Roadmap To Stability - South Asian Voices

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Pakistan in 2021 - Changes, Challenges, and A Roadmap To Stability - South Asian Voices

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

9/4/22, 1:15 PM Pakistan in 2021: Changes, Challenges, and a Roadmap to Stability – South Asian Voices

Geopolitics & Diplomacy