A challenging year lies ahead for Pakistan as it negotiates the aftermath of the unprecedented floods, economic

turmoil, the desire among the youth to leave and the ongoing struggle against terrorism. The reader should not
conclude that because this article only tackles challenges, the author has not noted recent positives and
opportunities for Pakistan. To the contrary, 2022 saw Pakistan lead the international community in matters of
climate justice, helping to secure the historic “loss and damage” deal. Depending on how much progress is
made by COP28 this year, this could mark a fundamental shift in climate negotiations that works to support
further countries vulnerable to climate change, like Pakistan itself.

Pakistan is also stepping out of a “global year” for popular culture and the arts, which will motivate the
creation of further artistic outlets and help to bridge Pakistan’s film and music industries with others around
the world. Academic events like ThinkFest held in Lahore and the Pakistan Conference hosted by Harvard
University last year, marking 75 years of independence, testified to a burgeoning intellectual culture, an
interest among the youth in tackling contemporary challenges and a strong international interest in Pakistan
Studies. Pakistan will have to balance these positives and opportunities with very challenging circumstances,
not all of the origins of which were avoidable.

Pakistan will have to balance these positives and opportunities with very challenging
circumstances, not all of the origins of which were avoidable.
The Aftermath of the Floods

It has been well-documented that the floods in Pakistan last year, caused by increased monsoon rainfall, have
affected over 33 million people. The ongoing consequences of much of Pakistan going underwater have made
dire conditions a daily reality for many, especially children. UNICEF, whose health interventions have reached
nearly 1.5 million people to date, has warned that up to 4 million children are still living near contaminated
and stagnant flood waters: “Frail and hungry children are fighting a losing battle against severe acute
malnutrition, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue fever, typhoid, acute respiratory infections, and painful skin
conditions. (sic)”

Besides health concerns, UNICEF has found that “2 million additional children have been locked out of
learning,” on top of the estimated 22.8 million children aged 5-16 not in school after the destruction of nearly
27,000 schools. Thus, the floods have exacerbated poor health and educational outcomes for the next
generation of Pakistanis, who will also have to contend with more serious and frequent extreme weather events
unless the world gets serious about reducing global temperatures. Given Pakistan’s acute vulnerability to
climate change, it will have to increasingly treat the phenomenon as a non-traditional threat and prepare
accordingly in its national security estimations.

Economic Turmoil
While the human impact of floods must be the most central concern for Pakistan and the international
community, the economic impact is unprecedented. The World Bank has estimated that total damages exceed
14.9 billion USD and total economic losses amount to around 15.2 billion USD, while rehabilitation and
reconstruction will cost close to 16.3 billion USD. The organisation also projected that Pakistan lost around 2.2
per cent of Fiscal Year 2022 GDP as a direct result of the floods.

To make matters worse, there are concerns that Pakistan may default on its loans to the IMF. Miftah Ismail, the
former finance minister, has warned that Pakistan’s expenses are much higher than its income and that the
country could default if it fails to approach the IMF. The IMF defines defaulting in simple terms as a “broken
promise, or a breach of contract,” such as through missed payments or data misreporting. The consequences of
Pakistan defaulting on its loans include an inability to import fuels to generate electricity, resulting in
blackouts, as well as increased unemployment. Pakistanis already have to cope with inflated food prices and
competition for subsidised products.

The Desire Among the Youth to Leave

Pakistanis rightly emphasise how the country’s youthful population is a great source of potential, but the young
are among the most likely to express a desire to leave Pakistan. This desire, as reflected in a  survey published
in November 2022 by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, has translated into reality for a
considerable number. Official documens allegedly show that 765,000 people left Pakistan in 2022, nearly triple
the number in 2021. Given that 92,000 of these people were classed as highly educated, this flurry of
departures has been presented as a continuation of the country’s “brain drain”. The government of Pakistan
thus faces the challenge of incentivising its talented youth to remain in Pakistan and encourage those who have
left to return. Based on anecdotal evidence, some Pakistanis who have left the country for higher education feel
that there are not the same opportunities at home, leaving their only options to be jobs for which they are
overqualified.

Ongoing Struggle Against Terrorism

Three police officers sadly lost their lives in the first terror attack in Pakistan of 2023, when heavily armed
terrorists attacked a police station in Peshawar on the 14 January. This comes after the conclusion of an
indefinite ceasefire between the government of Pakistan and the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on the
23rd of November, that was agreed upon in June. Following an absence of attacks in the capital of Islamabad
for eight years, the first suicide bombing occurred at the end of December inside a taxi, leaving the driver,
bomber and a police officer dead.
Outside of the capital, the inhabitants of Swat demonstrated in October against increased killings in one of the
largest protests the valley has seen to voice not only the rejection of political violence but also to demand
protection as a constitutional right. While the progress and sacrifices made by the Pakistani military and police
forces in addressing terrorism should be noted, attacks will continue until more successful peace talks are held
with the TTP. This is by no means a simple task, given the mutually opposing demands of the TTP and the
government of Pakistan, especially in terms of the TTP’s rejection of the constitution of Pakistan as un-
Islamic.

Dealing with any of these challenges in isolation would be difficult, but their simultaneous existence will
require the government of Pakistan to rehabilitate and reconstruct those communities devastated by the floods
while also seeking long-term security, economic, and educational solutions that also give hope and
opportunities to the youth of Pakistan. The more the youth become central to policy-making, both as
stakeholders and as visionaries, the more sustainable and forward-looking Pakistan will become.