Population growth: challenges and

opportunities
Pakistan is on the verge of meeting developmental indicators of a developed
country because of CPEC

Durdana NajamAugust 06, 2020

Way back in 1798, Thomas Malthus was astonished to see the growing mass of
humanity and warned about its consequence. He said, “The power of population is
so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature
death must in some shape or other visit the human race.”
In a matter of a few years from the writing of these words, the global population hit
one billion, which has now reached almost 7.5 billion.
Though this exponential growth has not created the situation that Malthus has
indicated, it nevertheless has created conditions, such as climate crisis, which has
strained the earth’s capacity to generate resources at the optimal level. According to
recent research led by the University of Washington and published in The Lancet,
the earth’s population will peak at 9.6 billion in 2064.
The contribution of Pakistan to this population bulge will be immense, to say the
least. As per the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics sixth census report, Pakistan’s
population stands at well over 200 million — a 60% rise from the last census that
took place in 1998. This almost unchecked population growth is a governance issue
because of the strain it lays on resources leaving the government with limited
choices to produce quality human beings — a critical area for the development of a
country’s economic base.
At 2.4%, Pakistan’s annual population growth rate is higher than many countries.
Not surprisingly we have surpassed Brazil as the fifth most populous country in the
world.
Though we take pride in the so-called youth bulge that overpopulation has bestowed
upon us, the reality is that this demographic change has led to a rise in urban
migration. Today more than 20% of Pakistanis live in 10 major cities.
The young people unable to find job opportunities in villages and small towns are
forced to move to cities. Had the government planned to create new cities, as is the
practice throughout the developing world, we might have had fewer issues as
regards to employment opportunities, high inflation, and unplanned urbanisation.
According to some reports, urbanisation in Pakistan is growing at an annual rate of
3%, which is the highest growth rate in South Asia. The United Nations Population
Division estimates that “by 2025 nearly half the country’s population will live in
urban areas.” Are we aware of the crisis this will generate?
There is a direct correlation between demography and security. Historically,
population growth has been one of the destabilising factors in the least developed
countries. Young people are usually more susceptible to extreme behaviours. A
study conducted by Population Action International shows that about 80% of the
world’s civil conflicts since the 1970s have occurred in countries with young, fast-
growing populations.
Ideally, we should have used the demographic power to our advantage, but lack of
investment in education and the inability of the state to produce economic
opportunities through the development of manufacturing sector, the youth bulge has
become a liability, which can be a serious threat to the country’s security.
In a turnaround from terrorism, which until a few years back had been bleeding
Pakistan to death, a fight is still raging to reduce extremism, especially in the matter
of religion, where space for diversity is fast shrinking. But it is not just religious
fanaticism that has contributed to making the youth belligerent. Other factors are
equally responsible. According to different estimates, almost 32% of our young
generation is illiterate while a majority of others are school dropouts. Our enrolment
rate is the lowest in South Asia. We spend 2% of GDP on education, while the
quality of education has been questionable since ages now. Young people leaving
colleges are hard put to face the challenges of the globalised world.
Attention towards this anomaly is also drawn in the State Bank of Pakistan’s third
quarterly report entitled “The State of Pakistan’s Economy — 2019-2020”. The
report reveals: “When it comes to productivity, the poor state of human capital
development is cited as one of the major binding constraints for Pakistan. With
education and training on the lower side, the existing and incoming labour force
does not have the desired level of capacity to effectively participate in economic
activities.”
According to the State Bank estimate, 1.8 million people enter the job market
annually in Pakistan. For their absorption in the workforce, Pakistan needs an annual
economic growth rate of at least 6 to 7%. As of 2018, there were 3.8 million people
unemployed in the country. One is sure that in the aftermath of the coronavirus-
induced economic shutdown this figure must have multiplied — a scary situation to
grapple with. Many a research has identified a direct link between religious
extremism and social and economic marginalisation.
This scenario becomes more worrisome when we see the political leadership giving
patchy attention to the implications of the population explosion and its fall out. For
generations now, almost every government has issued cash-based youth
programmes, but none has prioritised the development of small and medium-sized
businesses — the real backbone of any country’s economic strength.
We can solve this enigma in two ways. First is the traditional method of introducing
family planning interventions with a focus to accelerate women’s access to
contraceptives and to remove societal stigma the right-wing quarters have attached
to the topic of birth control. Second is by introducing human development
interventions such as: providing every child equal opportunity of getting an
education until high school; creating universal health coverage system with a focus
on prevention to mitigate environmental hazards; generating employment
opportunities through business development; and bringing more women into the
workforce. The list goes on. However, these are the bare minimum a country could
do to put its growing population to good use. Interestingly, the adoption of the
second method would automatically take care of the issue of population growth.
Pakistan is on the verge of meeting developmental indicators of a developed country
because of CPEC. All that is needed is a vision that could transform this project into
an opportunity and turn this youth bulge from a liability to an asset. Are we ready
for the challenge?
Published in The Express Tribune, August 6 th, 2020.
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