11/24/23, 11:15 PM Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency | United States Institute of Peace

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Pakistan’s Climate Challenges

Pose a National Security
Emergency
A whole-of-government approach is needed now
before climate change exacerbates conflict in the
country.
Thursday, July 7, 2022 / BY: Jumaina Siddiqui

PUBLICATION TYPE: Analysis and Commentary

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Pakistan is in the midst of a terrible heatwave, with the temperatures in parts of the
country exceeding 120 F. April was the hottest month in the past 61 years, until May
came along and saw warmer temperatures. At least 65 people have reportedly died
due to the heatwave, but the actual numbers are certainly higher, and it’s caused
massive flooding and infrastructure damage in Gilgit-Baltistan, water shortages in
Karachi and broader Sindh province, and placed greater demands on the country’s
weak electrical grid. Despite monsoon rains beginning in late June — causing at least
77 deaths — many parts of the country still swelter. Pakistan should treat these
climate disasters as a full-fledged national security emergency before they stoke
conflict that adds further stress amid the country’s other numerous challenges.

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11/24/23, 11:15 PM Pakistan’s Climate Challenges Pose a National Security Emergency | United States Institute of Peace

Displaced survivors of the floods in Pakistan near the village of Shahdadkot on Aug. 23, 2010. Over
the last 20 years, over 10,000 Pakistanis have lost their lives due to climate-related disasters. (Tyler
Hicks/The New York Times)

Climate Challenges Could Stoke Conflict

For the past 20 years, Pakistan has consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable
countries on the Climate Risk Index, with 10,000 fatalities due to climate-related disasters
and financial losses amounting to about $4 billion from 173 extreme weather events.
These challenges threaten to spark climate-related conflict over resources — such as
water — that have become scarce due to climate change impacts. Climate-related
disasters like floods, heatwaves or tsunamis can also exacerbate tensions among groups
who already have a history of conflict. Any of these scenarios would be a serious threat to
Pakistan and have serious ramifications for any government in the immediate aftermath of
a climate disaster or as part of efforts to mitigate future disasters.

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This year’s heatwave further exacerbated food insecurity, which can undermine peace and
stability, according to the United Nations. Scorching temperatures have damaged entire
orchards and hurt wheat production across Pakistan, adversely impacting the livelihoods
of many small farmers and rendering formerly arable land unusable for agriculture in some
parts of the country. Already facing wheat shortages due to Russia’s war in Ukraine,
Pakistan’s domestic wheat production this year will be reduced by 10%.

During Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s visit to the United States to attend a
United Nations meeting on food security, he highlighted that the country is under threat of
food, water and energy insecurity. Unfortunately, it is not just a threat anymore but a reality
for Pakistan. Combined with soaring inflation and the country’s continued political
instability, this is a recipe for disaster. All these trends are potential catalysts that could
trigger climate-induced migration from rural areas to urban centers as Pakistanis seek
employment and stable living conditions. This puts an additional strain on massive cities
and urban infrastructure that already cannot manage their current population levels.

A Mixed Response

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has also taken notice of Pakistan’s climate change
vulnerabilities. In a recent decision, the court noted that that in urban areas in particular,
relevant government authorities should take into consideration “adaptation, climate
resiliency and sustainability…[as] they are essential to actualize the fundamental rights of
the people.”

While some subnational government agencies have been more effective in preparing for
climate-related disasters, other have not. In Gilgit Baltistan, the heatwave caused a
massive glacial flood, but thanks to continuous monitoring by the relevant local
government authorities, people living in vulnerable locations were relocated to safer
places before the floods. After the 2020 floods in Karachi, the provincial government
decided to address the causes that lead to the severe flooding after the waters subsided.
However, their heavy-handed actions — such as tearing down settlements along the nalas,
or waterways, that should have drained the flood waters without considering proper plans

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to resettle or adequately compensate those displaced from the settlements — led to a

number of protests from both communities and civil society activists.

It took this heatwave for the Sindh government to notice and take action against the water
mafias controlling the city, even though this has been a problem for a decade or more.
The water issue connects to the larger issue of natural resource usage and extraction
throughout Pakistan, in particular the availability of water, whether it is for agricultural
purposes or for consumption. The current heatwave has created an acute water crisis in
Sindh, leading to inter-provincial tensions with Punjab — and it’s unclear if there is a
resolution in sight.

Pakistan has tried to play a significant role on the international stage, participating in
COP26 and signing the global methane pledge. The country is one of the world’s major
methane emitters, predominately through its agricultural sector. How this commitment will
impact this sector more broadly remains to be seen, especially as Pakistan seeks
international financing to meet this commitment. While climate-smart agricultural practices
generally save money in the long run, it is important to understand how these changes
would impact large-scale farmers and their workers, the latter of whom are one of the
most economically disadvantaged groups in country.

The previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government had a strong advocate in Malik
Amin Aslam, who served as the special advisor to the prime minster on climate change.
The PTI government made significant strides in their efforts to mitigate and adapt to the
effects of climate change such as committing to having 60% of energy coming from
“clean” sources and to having electric vehicles making up 30% of the market by 2030.

The current coalition government, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), has
smartly continued the trend of strong leadership on climate change by appointing Senator
Sherry Rehman, a member of the Pakistan Peoples Party, as minster for climate change.
While leadership on this issue is imperative, it is equally important that there is a tangible
and sustained collaboration and coordination between the national and provincial
governments to develop a roadmap to address the impacts of climate change on the
country. Because of devolution in Pakistan, issues like water, food and agriculture, and

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environment are ones where the provinces have the authority to pass governing
legislation, while climate change is a federal issue. This disconnect must be resolved
through a more robust system for interprovincial coordination.

What Pakistan Needs

The PML-N government’s announcement to set up a climate change task force in

response to the heatwave is a step in the right direction. But if Pakistan is serious about
tackling climate change and investing in mitigation and adaption efforts, what is needed is
an overarching framework to coordinate this response. One recent model to look to is
Pakistan’s National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), which led the country’s
COVID-19 response. A climate-focused NCOC would ensure that sufficient resources are
allocated to address the impacts of climate change on the country and appropriate
coordination takes place that builds political consensus. This would require relevant
provincial and national bodies to come together to work develop a common action plan to
address the internal impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the NCOC would spearhead
the implementation of Pakistan’s National Determined Contributions under the Paris
Accords because some of these efforts would need provincial buy-in.

It is unclear if Pakistan’s new climate change task force will carry the same weight as the
COVID-19 NCOC. But if it is to succeed, then learning from the successes and failures of
the NCOC model is imperative. The COVID-19 NCOC took a whole-of-government
approach to tackle the crisis head on. In the beginning there was significant tension
between the federal and provincial governments on measures such as the timing and
scope of lockdowns and whether provinces had the legal mandate to dictate how
businesses functioned during the pandemic. However, in the interest of combatting the
pandemic, a delicate understanding between and cooperation among political parties in
power in different provinces did eventually occur.

National and provincial governments are working in lockstep right when it comes to
energy conservation. But this cooperation will need to be sustained over the long haul.
Unlike COVID-19 where we have vaccines and other mitigation tools, climate change is a

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significantly more complex challenge that will require long-term coordination and
commitment. Almost PKR 10 billion (approximately $50 million) has been allocated to the
Ministry of Climate Change under the 2022-23 national budget, a decrease from the PKR
14 billion in the 2021-22 national budget. This change is likely due to the economic
situation in the country, but still shows a commitment to the issue and continuity between
governments as the PTI government’s signature “10 Billion Tree Tsunami” project received
an earmark.

Alongside these domestic efforts, both the United States and Pakistan should hold a
second meeting of the U.S.-Pakistan Climate and Environment Working Group, following
the first meeting held in September 2021. This working group could serve as the
springboard to begin repairing and resetting the tenuous U.S.-Pakistan relationship as
addressing climate change and promoting regional stability is in the interest of both
nations.

All mainstream political parties agree that climate change is threat to Pakistan’s social and
economic stability. Addressing climate change in Pakistan truly requires a “war-footing”
and a whole-of-government approach. Otherwise, the consequences of inaction or
improper action could foster greater turmoil and strife for all levels of Pakistani society.

ISSUE AREAS

Environment

COUNTRIES

Pakistan

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