THE GLOBAL AND THE PHILIPPINES’ TRANSITION

Demographic transition is a paradigm for demographic changes in a country. It

claims that when the country moves from high birth rates and high death rates to low
birth rates and low death rates, the population would finally stop rising and stabilize.
Because less developed countries tend to rely on and follow the accomplishments of
more developed ones, this stability occurs frequently in industrialized countries. Most
countries are currently experiencing positive population growth, which implies that their
inhabitants are growing.
It is not impossible, but the Philippines is currently making very slow progress.
The Philippines is still in the lower position or in the first phase of demographic transition
due to its population structure. According to NEDA, the country's population is expected
to reach around 110 million Filipinos by 2020. In 2017, the Philippines' total fertility rate
remained high, with 2.9 children per woman, compared to less than 1.5 in Thailand. The
Philippines has a population of 106 million people compared to Thailand's 68 million.
To be clear, the Philippines is still in the early stages of demographic transition,
with a substantial share of the population under the age of 15 and households carrying
a significant dependency burden. The country's ability to regulate population growth
through the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health (RPRH) Law will
determine the transition to the second phase, which will see a larger share of the
working age population compared to dependents. The population of the Philippines is
growing, although it is unevenly dispersed across the country. According to the 2015
Population Census, there were around 101 million Filipinos living in the country. While
the rate of growth is dropping (from 1.9 percent in 2000-2010 to 1.7 percent in
2010-2015), the population continues to expand at a high rate, with roughly 2 million
Filipinos added each year.
Fertility decreases have affected the age structure of the national population,
albeit slowly, since the 1960s. The proportion of children under the age of 14 years has
decreased from 45.7 percent in 1960 to 32 percent in 2015, while the proportion of
adults (15-64) has climbed from 52 percent in 1960 to 63 percent in 2015. As fertility
declines, further adjustments in the age structure are likely.
Because the fertility rate is high, the change is slow. The demographic transition
is defined as the shift from a high fertility and high mortality scenario to a low fertility and
low mortality situation. The demographic transition in the Philippines is at a point where
mortality is low but fertility is high. According to the 2013 National Demographic and
Health Survey (NDHS), given the current age-specific fertility rates, every woman of
reproductive age (15 - 49) has roughly three children during her childbearing years.
While actual fertility has improved slightly since the 1970s (6 children), it has been
stable since 1996, with the most recent figure of 3 children in 2013. More crucially, when
compared to the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children, the newest TFR is 1 child
higher.
When the Covid-19 pandemic broke out, the Commission on Population and
Development (PopCom) predicted an increase in birth rates as more families stayed at
home and access to family planning methods was limited. Instead, there was a
substantial reduction in the number of births in 2020, with only 1,516,042 million
recorded — the lowest figure since 1986, when 1,493,995 babies were born.
According to a preliminary estimate released by the Philippine Statistics Authority
in June 2021, the figure is also lower than the 1.675 million recorded in 2019. In 2020,
the country had the lowest number of marriages in the recent 20 years, with 240,183
couples marrying, down 44 percent from the 431,972 who married in 2019. The
combined effects of fewer marriages, women deferring pregnancies during the
pandemic, and an increase in women utilizing modern family planning methods have
resulted in a decrease in birth rates. The national government's concerted efforts to
support local government family planning programs, related agencies, and public and
private sector partners enhanced Filipinos' awareness and interest in the possible
hazards of conceiving and giving birth amid the health crisis. PopCom's National
Program on Population and Family Planning, which began in 2019, aimed to expand
community-based family planning services.
The fertility rate in the country is now 2.5 births per woman, down from a high of
6 in the 1960s. However, between January and March 2021, 268,000 people gave birth,
compared to 350,000 in the regular year. If this trend continues, the population will grow
by even less by the end of the year.
As a result, the country's potential growth must be raised in order to realize the
overarching aim of establishing a strong basis for equitable growth, a high-trust society,
and a globally competitive knowledge economy. This will be accomplished by hastening
the country's demographic transition to low mortality and fertility levels, which will allow
the population age structure to change to a point where the working-age population
makes up the majority – also known as the demographic window of opportunity. Once
the demographic preconditions for this phenomena are met, the county will strive to
maximize its potential economic benefit.

References:
https://pdp.neda.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Chapter-13.pdf