Situation Report for COVID-19: Venezuela, 2021-03-12

Download the report for Venezuela, 2021-03-12 here. This report uses data from the European
Centre for Disease Control. These data are updated daily and whilst there may be a short delay, they are
generally consistent with Ministry reports. These data are then used to back-calculate an ‘inferred number of
COVID-19 infections’ using mathematical modelling techniques (see Report 12 for further details) to estimate
the number of people that have been infected and to make short-term projections for future healthcare needs.

Epidemiological Situation

Total Total
Reported New Reported Reported New Reported
Cases Cases Deaths Deaths Estimated Ref f
144,786 509 1,428 7 1 (95% CI: 0.89-1.16)

The figure below shows the cumulative reported deaths as a function of the time since the 10th death was
reported. Dashed lines show the expected trajectory for different doubling times of the epidemic. For example,
with a doubling time of 3 days, if there are currently a total of 20 deaths reported, we would expect there to
be 40 deaths in total reported in 3 days-time, 80 deaths in 6 days-time, 160 deaths in 9 days-time etc. For
most epidemics, in the absence of interventions, we expect a doubling time of 3-4 days for this disease.

US
Brazil
Mexico
Cumulative Deaths (Logarithmic Scale)

1e+05
Colombia Argentina
Peru
Canada
Chile
1e+04 Guatemala Bolivia Ecuador Doubling
Paraguay Honduras Panama Every 2 Days
El Salvador Every 3 Days
Costa Rica Dominican Republic
1e+03 Venezuela Every 5 Days
Jamaica
Uruguay Every 7 Days
Guyana Haiti Cuba
Belize
Bahamas
1e+02 Trinidad and Tobago Suriname
Saint Lucia Nicaragua
Barbados
Antigua and Barbuda
1e+01

0 100 200 300

Days Since 10 Deaths

Figure 1: Cumulative Deaths since 10 deaths. Country not shown if fewer than 10 deaths.

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COVID-19 Transmission Modelling
The figure below shows the estimated number of people infected over the past 4 weeks. The bar charts
show, for comparison, the number of reported cases. We estimate that there has been a total of 96,922 (95%
CI: 92,791-101,052) infections over the past 4 weeks. The right-hand plot shows these data on a different
scale as the estimated infections are likely to be much larger than the reported cases. Importantly, the
estimated infections includes both asymptomatic and mild cases that would not necessarily be identified
through surveillance. Consequently, the estimated infections are likely to be significantly higher than the
reported cases in all countries (see our FAQ for further explanation of these differences and why the reported
cases and estimated infections are unlikely to match).

Plot on right zoomed in on reported cases

Estimated Reported

1250
10000

1000
Daily Number of Infections

7500

750

5000

500

2500
250

0 0
01

01

01

01

01

01

01

01

01

01

01

01

01

01

Fe 01
M 01
Ap 01
M r 01
Ju 01
Ju 01
Au l 01
Se 01
O 01
N t 01
D 01
Ja 01
Fe 01
M 01
Ap 01
1
r0

r0

r0
n

ar

ay

ct

ov

ec

ar

n
b
ar

ay
n

g
p

ov
ec
n
b
ar
Ju

c
Ap

Ap
Ja

Fe

Ju

Au

Se

Ja

Fe

Ja
O
M

M
M

Figure 2: Daily number of infections estimated by fitting to the current total of deaths. Reported
cases are shown in red. Model estimated infections are shown in blue (dark blue 50% interquartile range,
light blue 95% quantile). The dashed line shows the current day.

2
By fitting to the time series of deaths, we are able to estimate a time-varying reproduction number, Ref f .
Ref f is the the average number of secondary infections caused by a single infected person at a given time. If
Ref f is above 1, the rate of transmission is increasing and the number of new infections is increasing. Ref f is
assumed to change in relation to mobility fall in proportion. When fitting our model we assume that 100% of
COVID-19 related deaths have been reported (please see our FAQ section for more information about this
assumption). Additionally, we assume that infection with COVID-19 leads to protective immunity that does
not wane within the time scales considered in these analyses.

3
Reff

1
b
06 Mar
20 Apr
04 A r
18 Ma r
y
y
n
n
13Jun
107 J l
24 Au l
07 Aug
21 Seg
p
p
02 O t
16 No t
30 Nov
14 Nov
28 Dev
c
c
n
n
b
Mb
ar
2 Ju
u

19 Oc
c
23 Ma

01Ma

11 De
09 Fe

15 Ju
29 Ju

05 Se

25 Ja
08 Ja
22 Fe
08 Fe
24

Figure 3: Time-varying effective reproduction number, Ref f . Ref f (green) is the average number of
secondary infections caused by a single infected person at time equal to t. A horizonatal dashed line is shown
at Ref f = 1. Ref f < 1 indicates a slowing epidemic in which new infections are not increasing. Ref f > 1
indicates a growing epidemic in which new infections are increasing over time. Dark green shows the 50% CI
and light green shows the 95% CI. The curve in blue shows the predicted decrease in Ref f due to increasing
immunity in the population resulting from people being infected by COVID-19. Dark blue shows the 50% CI
and light blue shows the 95% CI. Individuals infected with COVID-19 are assumed to remain immune within
our analysis. The upper horizontal dashed line shows the value of Ref f at the beginning of the epidemic,
highlighting the impact of immunity on transmission.

3
Using the model fit, we can forecast the expected trajectory for cumulative deaths assuming the transmission
level, represented by the final Rt value stays the same over the next 28 days.

Model Fit up to Current Day Model Fit & 28 Day Projection

20
20
Daily Deaths

10
10

0
0
20

20

20

21

M r 04
a 9
3
M pr 26
M y 00
a 4
8
1
n 5
Ju 29
Auul 23
Aug 17
Seg 20
Sep 04
7
c 1
N ct 15
N v 09
N v 12
D v 36
D c 10
e 4
8
1
5
M b 28
M r 02
a 8
r 02
5
20

20

20

20

Mb2

Apr 2
A r0

Ju y 1
Jun 0
Jun 1

J l1

Op2
O t0

Ja c 2
Jan 1
Fen 2
Feb 0

Apr 2
r

ct

a
a

o
o
o
Ju

e
Fe
Ap

Ja
O

Figure 4: Estimated daily deaths. Projected deaths assuming the current level of interventions are
maintained are shown in red (median and 95% quantile). Reported deaths are plotted in black. The plot on
the left is focussed on the model fit prior to today, while the plot on the right forecasts the next 28 days.

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Short-term Epidemic Scenarios
We make the following short-term projections of healthcare demand and new infections under the following
three scenarios:
• Scenario 1. The epidemic continues to grow at the current rate.
• Scenario 2. Countries will further scale up interventions (either increasing current strategies or
implementing new interventions) leading to a further 50% reduction in transmission.
• Scenario 3. Countries will relax current interventions by 50%
N.B. These scenarios currently assume that the impact of mobility on transmission will remain
the same in the future as it has in the past. We are working to extend methods to estimate the
impact of increases in mobility on transmission as lockdown and interventions are reversed.
Consequently, projection are likely to represent an upper estimate of the healthcare demand
and case load for each scenario
We estimate that over the next 4 weeks demand for hospital beds will change from 320 (95% CI: 304-335)
patients requiring treatment with high-pressure oxygen at the current date to 378 (95% CI: 338-417) hospital
beds being required on 2021-04-09 if no further interventions are introduced (Scenario 1). Similarly, we
estimate that over the next 4 weeks demand for critical care (ICU) beds will change from 115 (95% CI:
109-121) patients requiring treatment with mechanical ventilation at the current date to 138 (95% CI: 124-152)
by 2021-04-09. These projections assume that approximately 5% of all infections will require treatment with
high-pressure oxygen and that approximately 30% of hospitalised cases will require treatment with mechanical
ventilation (based on analysis of ongoing epidemics in Europe). N.B. These scenarios are unlikely
to show significant differences for the first week since there is a delay of approximately 10
days between infection and hospital admission. Consequently, the effectiveness of a change in
policy is likely to be better captured by hospital admission data approximately 2 weeks after
the policy change is implemented.

Maintain Status Quo Relax Interventions 50% Additional 50% Reduction

1200
Hospital Bed Demand

900 300
ICU Demand

600 200

300 100

0 0
15

29

15

29
ar

ar

ar

ar
M

Figure 5: Healthcare demands in the next 28 days. Individuals needing an ICU bed are assumed to
need mechanical ventilation. Projected demand for Scenario 1 (the epidemic continues to grow at the current
rate) are shown in green (Maintain status quo). Projections for Scenario 2 (a further 50% reduction in
transmission) are shown in blue. Projections for Scenario 3 (relaxing interventions by 50%) are shown in red.
Current date shown with dashed line.

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The impact of each scenario has a more immediate effect on the daily number of infections. The figure below
shows the impact of each scenario on the estimated daily incidence of new infections. If interventions are
scaled up (Scenario 2), the daily number of infections will change from 3,979 (95% CI: 3,726-4,232) at the
current date to 371 (95% CI: 327-415) by 2021-04-09. If current interventions were relaxed by 50%, we
estimate the daily number of infections will change from 3,979 (95% CI: 3,726-4,232) at the current date to
26,532 (95% CI: 22,790-30,273) by 2021-04-09.

Maintain Status Quo Relax Interventions 50% Additional 50% Reduction

25000

20000
Daily Infections

15000

10000

5000

0
5

9
1

2
ar

ar
M

Figure 6: Daily number of infections estimated by fitting to deaths. Projected infections for Scenario
1 (the epidemic continues to grow at the current rate) are shown in green (Maintain status quo). Projections
for Scenario 2 (a further 50% reduction in transmission) are shown in blue. Projections for Scenario 3
(relaxing interventions by 50%) are shown in red. Current date shown with dashed line.

To explore different scenarios, we recommend using our COVID-19 Scenario Analysis Tool -
https://covidsim.org/, which can be used to simulate different intervention scenarios and explore
the long term impact on healthcare demand.

Copyright© 2020 Imperial College London. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. All rights
reserved.