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Modelling Water Consumption in Kalmunai using Time Series Models

Conference Paper · November 2015

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Mohamed Cassim Alibuhtto

South Eastern University of Sri Lanka
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 Modelling Water Consumption in Kalmunai using Time Series Models

M. I. Irfana1, M.C. Alibuhtto2

1
Faculty of Applied Sciences, South Eastern University of Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka.
(ismailirfana102@gmail.com)

2
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Applied Sciences, South Eastern University of Sri
Lanka, Sri Lanka. (mcabuhtto@seu.ac.lk)

Abstract
Water is considered as lifeline of all living things specially humans. After the tsunami well water
is damaged in coastal area of Sri Lanka. The drinking water production and distribution in
Kalmunai area is a challenging problem. This study aims to analysis and identify the best fit time
series model to the water consumption in the Kalmunai using time series techniques. For this
purpose the water consumption data (2005 to 2014) were collected on monthly basis from the
National Water Supply and Drainage board. Several time series models including AR, MA and
ARMA were developed to the water consumption data, and it emerged that the most adequate
models for the data was ARMA (1, 2). The error series of the fitted model was found to be a
white noise process.

Key words: ARMA, Drainage board, Tsunami, Water consumption

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