Course: STA 121 – Introduction to Probability (2 Credits – Compulsory)

Course Duration: Three hours per week for 15 weeks (45 hours)
As taught in 2011/2012 session

Lecturer: ABIODUN, Alfred Adewole

B.Sc. ,M.Sc. Ph.D. Statistics. (Ilorin).
E-mail: abbay@unilorin.edu.ng, manfredwole@yahoo.com

Department of Statistics,
Faculty of Science,
University of Ilorin
Ilorin, Nigeria.

Office Location: – Room G15, Department of Statistics Building.

Consultation Hours: 2.00-4.00pm Tuesdays & Thursdays.

Course Content:
Probability as a measure of uncertainty. Sample points and events, combination of events. Definitions and
basic properties of probability. Joint and conditional probabilities. Combinatorial analysis.
30h (T).

Course Description:
The course is designed to introduce students in the Departments of Statistics, Mathematics,
Computer Science and Mathematics Education to the basic concepts of probability. The course
describes probability as a measure of uncertainty and considers various interpretations of
probability. It introduces students to the fundamental probability concepts such as Sample space,
Events, as well as the Axioms of probability, avoiding mathematical and theoretical details.

Course Justification:
The term “Probability” and such related terms as “Chance” and “Likely” are commonly used to
express the degree of belief and level of uncertainty about a phenomenon. People’s lifes are
greatly affected by chance and our daily decisions regarding the possible events are governed at
least in part by chance. A thorough grounding in probability will serve as bedrock for a better
understanding of statistical inference. The concepts in probability form a major component that
supplements statistical methods and help gauge the strength of the statistical inference.
Therefore, elements of probability allow us to quantify the strength or confidence in our
conclusions and also allows such conclusions to be put in the language that that the science or
engineering practitioners require.

Course Objectives:

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The general objective of the course is to introduce students to some basic probability concepts.
Therefore, at the end of the course the students are expected to be able to:

 Understand and be able to describe sample spaces and events for various random
experiments.
 Determine the probability of an event using classical probability and empirical
probability.
 Calculate the probabilities of joint events such as unions and intersections from the
probabilities of individual events applying the axioms of probability.
 Calculate the probabilities of compound events using addition and multiplication rules.
 Calculate the conditional probability of an event.
 Determine the total number of outcomes in a sequence of events using the fundamental
counting rule.
 Find the number of ways of arranging r objects from n objects when order of
arrangement is important using permutation rule.
 Find the number of ways of selecting r objects from n objects when order of selection is
not important using combination rule.
 Calculate the probability of an event based on combination rule.

Course Requirements:
 This is a compulsory course for all students studying Statistics and a required course for
students studying Mathematics, Computer science and Mathematics Education. Students
are expected to participate in all the course activities and have minimum of 75%
attendance to be able to write the final examination.
 They will also be expected to treat the study questions and assignments.
 Students are also expected to have e-mail accounts.

Methods of grading:
No Item Score %
1. Class assignments/ test 30
2. Comprehensive final examination 70
Total 100

Course Delivery Strategies:

The lecture will be delivered through face-to-face method, theoretical material (lecture note) will
be provided during lecture session.
Students will be encouraged and required to read around the topics and obtain current materials
from the university library. Web-interactions will be employed by requesting each student to
have Google gmail address to enable them participate in the Google discussion group that had
been created for the course (http://groups.google.com/group/sta121). Additional materials and
links will be provided on the board. The delivery strategies will also be supported by tutorial
sessions and review of study and past questions.

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LECTURE CONTENTS

Week 1: Probability as a Measure of Uncertainty.

Objective: The student will be able to explain, with illustrative examples, the meaning of
Probability.

Description: The course outline will be introduced with emphasis on the objectives and
delivery strategies. The definition of probability will be given with some real life
illustrations. The concern of probability as a way of representing the degree of
belief on a numerical scale will also be explained.
Study Questions:
1. Define Probability.
2. Explain how numerical values can be assigned to probability.
3. Why do you think that statement such as “It will rain today” not a probability
statement?
4. Explain the link between probability and statistical inference.
5. What are the synonyms of probability?

Reading List:
1. A.G. Bluman(2003). Elementary Statistics. A step by step approach. ISBN:0-07-254907-
6.
2. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics for
Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.
3. R.V. Hogg & E.A. Tanis (1977). Probability and statistical Inference.

Week 2: Interpretations of Probability

Objective: The objective is for the student to know and understand the different
interpretations of probability.
Description: Despite the fact that the concept of probability is such a common and natural part
of our daily experiences, no single scientific interpretation has been found for it.
Three different interpretations are however, often been used, which are classical
interpretation, frequentist interpretation and subjective or Bayesian interpretation.

Study questions:
1. Explain Classical interpretation of probability.
2. What is the other name for Bayesian interpretation of probability?
3. How is classical interpretation of probability different from frequentist interpretation?
4. What are the difficulties of Bayesian interpretation of probability?
5. State the limitations of classical interpretation of probability
Reading List:
1. A.G. Bluman(2003). Elementary Statistics. A step by step approach. ISBN:0-07-254907-
6.
2. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics for
Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.

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Week 3: Review of Set Theory
Objective: The students should know the meaning of set and be able to describe some
statistical experiments using set representation.
Description: Definition of set will be given. Different types of set, including universal set,
subset, null set, etc. will be described. The union, intersection, complement of sets
will also be discussed and some elementary numerical examples relating to sets
will be given.
Study questions:
1. Define set.
2. What is universal set?
3. Describe the universal set of tossing a fair die.
4. Suppose that a coin is tossed and a die is rolled, if an element of the sample space is
picked, what is the probability that it will contain numbers between 2 and 4 inclusive?
5. Define the union and intersection of two sets.

Reading List:
1. A.G. Bluman(2003). Elementary Statistics. A step by step approach. ISBN:0-07-
254907-6.
2. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics
for Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.

Week 4: Laws of Set Operation

Objective: The objective of the lecture for the week is for the student to understand various
laws guiding set operations and be able to solve some elementary problems using
these laws.

Description: Different laws of set operation will be discussed. These include Commutative ,
Associative, Distributive and De Morgan’s laws. Some problems relating to these
laws will also be solved.

Study questions:
(1) If E′ is the complement of E, then show that E E′=S
(2) Consider the sample space given by
S={x:1≤x≤10}
Suppose we define the following events
A= {x: x ≥4}
B={x: 3<x<7}
C={x: x<5}, then compute Pr(C′)′
Use the following to answer questions 3 to5.
Let U={1,2,3,4,5,6}be the universal set of tossing a die. If we define the
following events:
A={2,4,6}
B={1,2,3,4}
C={1,5,6}
Show that

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 (3) (A′)′=A
(4) ( A  B)  C  A  ( B  C )
(5) A /  B /  ( A  B) /

Reading List:

1. A.G. Bluman(2003). Elementary Statistics. A step by step approach. ISBN:0-07-254907-

6.
2. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics for
Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.

Week 5: Random Experiment

Objective: The main objective is for the students to know what random experiment is and be
able to give the sample spaces for various random experiments.
Description: Random experiment which is also known as statistical or stochastic experiment
will be defined. The conditions under which an experiment can be termed random
and some sample spaces of random experiments will be given. Elementary
numerical examples will be given. Deterministic experiment will also be
distinguished from a random experiment.

Study Questions:
1. Define random experiment
2. State the conditions under which an experiment can be termed random.
3. Give the sample space of a random experiment involving tossing of two identical dice
once.
4. Use the sample space in (3) to find the probability that a randomly selected sample point
will contain identical numbers on their faces.
5. What is a deterministic experiment and how is it different from a random experiment?

Reading List:
1. A.G. Bluman(2003). Elementary Statistics. A step by step approach. ISBN:0-07-
254907-6.
2. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics
for Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.

Week 6: Specification of Sample Space

Objective: The objective is that students will be able to give two alternative ways of
specifying sample space, namely the Cartesian product and tree diagram methods.
They should also be able to distinguish between finite and infinite sample spaces.

Description: The simple random experiment of tossing a coin will be presented using both the
Cartesian product and tree diagram and this will be extended to more complex
random experiments. Finite and infinite sample spaces will also be illustrated.
Numerical examples will also be given based on these sample spaces.

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Study questions:
1. Specify the sample space of an experiment involving tossing a coin and a rolling a dice
together, using (i). catesian product method and (ii). Tree diagram method
2. Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen point of the sample space described in (1)
will contain a head.
3. Calculate the probability that a randomly chosen point of the sample space described in (1)
will contain an odd number and a tail .
4. Distinguish between finite and infinite sample space.
5. Distinguish between countably infinite and uncountably infinite sample space.

Reading List:
1. A.G. Bluman(2003). Elementary Statistics. A step by step approach. ISBN:0-07-
254907-6.
2. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics
for Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.

Week 7: Events
Objective: The objective of this topic is to enable students understand basic ideas of events
as it is similar to subset in set theory and they should also understand how two or
more events can be combined.
Description: Definition of event will be given and various illustrative examples will also be
given. We will also discuss various combinations of events including Union,
Intersection and Complement of events.

Study questions:
1. What is an event?
2. Distinguish between Sample space and Event.
3. What is Union of Events?
4. Distinguish between elementary and composite events.
5. Define the following terms; complement of events and intersection of events.

Reading List:
1. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics for
Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.
2. R.V. Hogg & E.A. Tanis (1977). Probability and statistical Inference.

Week 8: Mutually Exclusive Events

Objective: The objective is for students to know when an event can be said to be mutually
exclusive and also collective exhaustive.

Description: The meaning of mutually exclusive events will be given first for two events and
generalized for more than two, say m events and some illustrative examples will
also be given. Also the definition of collective events will be given and the
conditions under which a sequence of events, say E1, E2,. . . ,Ek will be said to
form a partition.

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 Study questions:
1. When do we say that two events A and B are mutually exclusive?
2. State the condition under which events A1, A2,A3 will be said to form a partition.
3. Consider a sample space given by S={1,2,3,4,5,6}. If we define the following
events on S, A={1,2,3}, B={2,3,5}, C={4,5,6}, then show that events A and b are
mutually exclusive.
4. Show that events A and C defined in (3) above are partitions of the sample space.
5. Are collective exhaustive events and partition of events the same?

Reading List:
1. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics for
Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.
2. R.V. Hogg & E.A. Tanis (1977). Probability and statistical Inference.

Week 9: Probability of Events:

Objective: The objective is for students to know how to find probabilities of various events
defined on different types of sample spaces.

Description: The meaning of probability and the computational formulae for calculating
probability will also be given. Some numerical examples of probabilities will be
given.

Study questions:
1. Define probability for an experiment with a set of equally likely outcomes.
2. In an experiment of tossing a die, find the probability of obtaining an odd number.
3. If two coins are rolled together, what is the probability of obtaining at least one
head
4. Suppose that a coin is tossed and a die is rolled, if an element of the sample space
is picked, what is the probability that it will contain head?
5. Suppose that two dice are rolled together, what is the probability that the sum of
numbers that come up on the faces of the two dice will equal 7?
Reading List:
1. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics for
Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.
2. R.V. Hogg & E.A. Tanis (1977). Probability and statistical Inference.

Week 10: Probability Measure and Basic Properties of Probabilities and Theorems

Objective: Students should understand what probably measure is as well as some basic
properties of
probability and some Theorems guiding probabilities.

Description: Probability measure will be defined and the conditions to be satisfied for a set
function defined on a sample space to be called a probability measure will be
stated.

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Study questions:
1. Define probability measure
2. Let A be any event defined on sample space S, show that Pr(A)+ Pr(A′)=1
3. Let A and B be events in sample space S. If Ais contained in B, then show that
Pr(A)≤Pr(B).
4. Three men are seeking public office. Candidate A and B are given the same
chance of winning, but candidate C is given twice of either A or B. What is the
probability of candidate C winning?
5. What is the probability that candidate A does not win?
Reading List:
1. R.E. Walpole; R.H. Myers; S.L. Myers & Keying Ye (2004). Probability & Statistics for
Engineers & Scientists. ISBN 81-7808-613-1.
2. R.V. Hogg & E.A. Tanis (1977). Probability and statistical Inference.

Week 11: Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probabilities

Objective: The objective of this topic is to enable students understand what marginal, joint
and conditional probabilities are and the relationship between them.

Description: Meanings of marginal, joint and conditional probabilities will be given. The
relationship between them will also be discussed. Some numerical examples
relating to these will be given.
Study questions:
1. Define the conditional probability of event A given B.
2. Suppose that two coins are tossed together once. If we assume that all the sample
points are equally likely, then find the conditional probability that both coins
results in tail given that the second coin results in tail.
3. The table below gives the number of elevated and non-elevated police officers;

Male Female Marginal Total

Elevated 144 18 162
Not elevated 336 102 438
Marginal 480 120 600
Calculate the probability that
(a) A female police officer is elevated
(b) A police officer is elevate given that he is a male.

4. If the probability that a married man will vote in a certain election is 0.40 and the
probability that a woman will vote provided that her husband votes is 0.80. Find
the following probability that both husband and his wife vote in the election
5. Under what condition is the probability of event A given B defined?
Reading list:
1. B. L. Adeleke (2000). An Introduction to Statistics.
2. B. L. Adeleke and I. Audu (2001). College Statistics and Probability.
Week 12: Continuous Assessment

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Objectives: To assess the students on the topics taught so far in the previous weeks.
Description: The test or assessment will be computer based (CBT) and each student is required
to attempt 30 multiple choice questions. Each correctly answered question attracts
1 point and there is no penalty for guessing (No negative marking).

Week 13: Counting Rules and Combinatorial Analysis.

Objective: The objective of this topic is to introduce students to some rules guiding counting.
Students are also expected to be able to solve some numerical problems relating
to ordered and unordered arrangements of objects.

Description: Fundamental counting rules will be described. Permutation and combination of

objects will also be discussed.

Study Questions:
1. How many permutation of 5 distinct objects are possible taking all at a time ?
2. How many two-digit numbers have distinct and non-zero digits?
3. In how many ways to make a basket of fruit from 6 oranges, 7 apples and 8 bananas so
that the basket contains at least two apples and one banana?
4. How many odd numbers have 1000 and 9999 have distinct digits?
5. How many different patterns of necklaces with 18 beads can be made out of 25 available
beads of the same size but different colours?

Reading List:
1. S. Ross (1976). A First Course in probability.
2. B. L. Adeleke and I. Audu (2001). College Statistics and Probability.
3. R. A. Ipinyomi (2000). Mathematics for Statistics and Economics

Week 14: Drawing with and without Replacement and Probabilities Based on
Combinatorial Analysis.

Objective: The objective of this topic is for students to understand and solve problems
emanating from drawing objects with and without replacement.

Description: Drawing of objects with and without replacement will be discussed. Numerical
problems on probabilities based on combinatorial analysis will also be treated in
connection to drawing without replacement.

Study questions:
1. How many possible samples of size 2 can be drawn from five objects if the drawing is
done
(a). with replacement
(b). without replacement.

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 2. A box consists of 3 red and 5 yellow balls. If two balls are drawn one after the other
without replacement, find the probability that they are red.
3. Find the probability in (2) if drawing is done with replacement.
4. Consider the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6. If two numbers are selected with replacement, what is
the probability that they are identical.
5. If drawing is done with without replacement in (4), what is the probability that the first
number is odd?

Reading List:
1. M. Woodroof (1975). Probability with Applications.
2. D.C Montgomery and G.C. Runger (2003). Applied Statistics and Probability for
Engineers.

Week 15: Revision/Tutorial Exercise

Description: Students are expected to seek explanation on any difficult topic treated during the
lectures.

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