Lecture Note 4

February 2, 2018

STA 121
INTRODUCTION
TO PROBABILITY
Dr. M. K. Garba
08035568461
and
Caution
Mrs. N. F. Gatta This learning material is NOT
08057149509 FOR SALE by anybody, not even
Department of Statistics, by the Class Representative.
Appropriate sanctions await the
University of Ilorin, Nigeria violators.
In today’s class, you would learn
 Joint Probability
 Marginal Probability
 Conditional Probability
 Introduction to
Probability Distributions
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 JOINT PROBABILITY
The probability of the intersection of two
events is called joint probability.
In other words, joint probability is the
probability that two events will occur
simultaneously.
Given two events, A and B, the intersection
of the events A and B is the event that both
A and B occur. 3
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A National survey involving 200 Chief Executive
Officers (CEO) was carried out recently in Abuja.
The CEOs were asked to specify their Geo-Political
zone and the kind of industry their respective
company is. The following table summarizes their
responses.
Geo-Political Zone
Total
Kind of Industry

NC NE SS SW
Finance 24 10 8 14 56
Manufacturing 30 6 22 12 70
Telecom 28 18 12 16 74

Total 82 34 42 42 200 4
By dividing every value in the table in
the previous slide by the total (200), we
obtain the corresponding probability
matrix or table as shown below
Geo-Political Zone
SW Total
Kind of Industry

NC NE SS
Finance 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.28
Manufacturing 0.15 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.35
Telecom 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.37
Total 0.41 0.17 0.21 0.21 1.00

5
The joint probability that a randomly
selected CEO is working with a
Finance company and comes from
North-Central is 0.12.
Geo-Political Zone
SW Total
Kind of Industry

NC NE SS
Finance 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.28
Manufacturing 0.15 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.35
Telecom 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.37
Total 0.41 0.17 0.21 0.21 1.00
6
The joint probability that a randomly
selected CEO is working with a
Telecom company and comes from
South-South is 0.06.
Geo-Political Zone
SW Total
Kind of Industry

NC NE SS
Finance 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.28
Manufacturing 0.15 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.35
Telecom 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.37
Total 0.41 0.17 0.21 0.21 1.00
7
The joint probability that a randomly
selected CEO comes from North-East
and works with a Manufacturing
company is 0.03.
Geo-Political Zone
SW Total
Kind of Industry

NC NE SS
Finance 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.28
Manufacturing 0.15 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.35
Telecom 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.37
Total 0.41 0.17 0.21 0.21 1.00
8
 MARGINAL PROBABILITY
Marginal Probabilities are the probabilities
obtained by adding across the rows or
columns of the joint probability table.

In other words, marginal probability is the

probability of the occurrence of the single
Event.

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Consider the probability matrix or table
regarding a National survey of 200 CEOs
given earlier
Geo-Political Zone
Total
Kind of Industry

NC NE SS SW
Finance 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.28
Manufacturing 0.15 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.35
Telecom 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.37
Total 0.41 0.17 0.21 0.21 1.00

Marginal Probabilities 10
The probability that a randomly selected
CEO works in a Finance company is
Pr(F) = Pr(FnC) + Pr(FnE) + Pr(FnS) + Pr(FnW)
= 0.12 + 0.05 + 0.04 + 0.07 = 0.28

Geo-Political Zone
SW Total
Kind of Industry

NC NE SS
Finance 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.28
Manufacturing 0.15 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.35
Telecom 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.37
Total 0.41 0.17 0.21 0.21 1.00

11
The probability that a randomly selected
CEO works in a Manufacturing company
is Pr(M) = Pr(MnC) + Pr(MnE) + Pr(MnS) +
Pr(MnW)
= 0.15 + 0.03 + 0.11 + 0.06 = 0.35
Geo-Political Zone
SW Total
Kind of Industry

NC NE SS
Finance 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.28
Manufacturing 0.15 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.35
Telecom 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.37
Total 0.41 0.17 0.21 0.21 1.00
12
The probability that a randomly selected
CEO comes from South-West is
Pr(W) = Pr(WnF) + Pr(WnM) + Pr(WnT)
= 0.07 + 0.06 + 0.08 = 0.21

Geo-Political Zone
SW Total
Kind of Industry

NC NE SS
Finance 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.28
Manufacturing 0.15 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.35
Telecom 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.37
Total 0.41 0.17 0.21 0.21 1.00

13
 Class Exercise
The human resource unit of a company present
the position by gender of the company’s staff as
shown below. Compute the corresponding joint
and marginal probabilities.
Gender
Male Female
Position

Managerial 8 3
Professional 31 13
Technical 52 17
Clerical 9 22
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 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The conditional probability of an event B in
relationship to an event A is the probability
that event B occurs after event A has already
occurred.
The notation for conditional probability is
P(B/A) and read as the probability that event
B occurs given that event A has earlier
occurred.
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Definition
For any two events A and B with P(B) > 0,
the conditional probability of A given that
B has earlier occurred is defined as

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Similarly, For any two events A and B
with P(A) > 0, the conditional
probability of B given that A has earlier
occurred is defined as

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 Example 1
A box contains balls of the same size but only
distinguishable by colour (blue or red). A person
selects two balls at random without replacement.
If the probability of selecting a blue ball and a
red ball is 15/56, and the probability of selecting
a blue ball on the first draw is 3/8, find the
probability of selecting a red ball on the second
draw given that the first ball selected was blue.
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 Example 2
The probability that David smokes excessively
and having lung cancer is 0.37, and probability
that he cannot do without smoking each time
he has problem is 0.58. At the end of a session,
he was advised to withdraw from his program
due to his poor performance and he had to
smoke to avoid thinking over the problem.
Find the probability that he will have lung
cancer. 19
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 Example 3
Given that Pr(A) = 0.50, Pr(B) = 0.40
and Pr(B/A) = 0.30.
(a)Find pr(A n B).
(b)Find pr(A or B).
(c)Hence, would you say events A and
B are mutually exclusive or not?
(d)Find pr(A/B).
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 Example 4
A factory assembles complex components using two
different assembly lines, X and Y. Line X uses older
equipment than Y, so it is somewhat slower and less
reliable. Suppose on a given day, line X produced 8
components of which 4 are defective (D) and 6 are
non-defective (N). Whereas, line Y assembled 3
defective and 11 non-defective components. The
sales manager randomly selects one component for
demonstration during an exhibition, find the
following probabilities
(i) P(X/D) (ii) P(D/X) (iii) P(Y/D) (iv) P(D/Y)
(v) P(X/N) (vi) P(N/X) (vii) P(Y/N) (viii) P(N/Y) 21
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#1
Practice Questions
80 students in a University cafeteria were asked if they
favoured a ban on smoking in the cafeteria. The results
of the survey are shown in the table below
Class Favour Oppose Neutral Total
Freshman 15 27 8 50
Sophomore 23 5 2 30
Total 38 32 10 80

If a student is selected at random, find the probability

that (a) the student opposes the ban given that he is a
freshman (b) given that the student favours the ban,
the student is a sophomore .
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#2
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought
women should be allowed to contest elective positions
in Kwara state. The results of the survey are given
below Responses
Gender Yes No Total
Male 8 42 50
Female 32 18 50
Total 40 60 100

Determine the conditional probability that

(a) The respondent answered yes, given that the
respondent was a female.
(b) The respondent was a male, given that the
respondent answered no. This learning material is NOT FOR SALE
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#3

You were informed while on your

study in abroad that your uncle who
got married before you travelled has
two children now and that one of them
is a boy named Ben. What is the
probability that Ben’s sibling is also a
boy?

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#4
Recall the probability table for the 200 CEOs that
participated in the National Survey carried out in Abuja.
Determine the following conditional probabilities
(a) Pr(M/S)
(b) Pr(W/T)
(c) Pr(C/F)
(d) Pr(E/W)
Where F, M & T stand for Finance, Manufacturing and
Telecom respectively and C, E, S & W denote NC, NE,
SS and SW respectively

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 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
SOME BASIC TERMS
Variable: A variable is a characteristic or
attribute that can assume different values.
Variables can be classified as qualitative or
quantitative.
Qualitative variables are variables that can
be placed into distinct categories according
to certain characteristic(s) or attribute(s).
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Some examples of qualitative variables are:
 Gender (Male or Female)
 Religion (Islam, Christianity or Traditional)
 State of Origin
 Preferred Football Team
 Membership of Political Party
 Hall of Residence

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Quantitative variables on the other hand are
numerical and can be ordered or ranked in a
particular order.
Some examples of quantitative variables are: ages,
heights, weights, body temperatures, scores in STA
203 test, class arrival times, distances from a class
to respective halls of residence, number of people
in a particular place, number of accidents recorded in
year etc.
Quantitative variables can further be classified into
Discrete and Continuous variables.
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Discrete variables assume values that can be
counted. They have a finite number of possible
values or an infinite number of values that can be
enumerated using the numbers 1, 2, 3 and so on.
Examples of discrete variables are number of
children in a family, number of students in a
class, number of phone calls per day, number of
times you visit the clinic in a semester, number
of times you go for shopping in a month.

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Continuous variables can assume an infinite
number of values between any two specific
values. Continuous variables are often obtained
by measuring which can include fractions and
decimals.
Examples of continuous variables are lengths,
heights, weights, body temperatures, blood
Pressures (BP)

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Random variable: A random variable is a
variable whose values are determined by
chance.
For example, if a die is rolled once and we
let x represents the number that comes up,
then x is a random variable whose value
could be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

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Similarly, when 3 coins are tossed, then sample space
S = HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT

Let x be the random variable for the number of tails (T)

in each of the outcomes. Then the possible values of x
are 0, 1, 2 and 3.

Just like variables, random variables can either be

discrete or continuous. We shall discuss these later on.

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 Probability Distributions
A probability distribution is a list of possible outcomes
in an experiment and their associated probabilities.
Recall the experiment of tossing 3 coins in which the
sample space
S = HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT
The possible values of x (number of tails ) are 0, 1, 2
and 3 with probabilities 1/8, 3/8, 3/8 and 1/8
respectively.

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Thus, the probability distribution for this
experiment is
No of tails 0 1 2 3
Probability 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8

Requirements of a Probability Distribution

1. 𝟎 ≤ 𝑷 𝒙 ≤ 𝟏

2. 𝒊 𝑷 𝒙𝒊 = 𝟏
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 Example 5
1. Determine whether each of the following is a
probability distribution. If it is not, identify the
requirement that is not satisfied.
(a) X 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.037 0.20 0.444 0.296

(b) X 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.189 0.176 -0.040 0.277 0.398

(c) X 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.4096 0.4096 0.1536 0.0256 0.0016

(d) X 2 4 6 8 10
P(x) 0.2000 0.3333 0.1334 0.2667 0.0667

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2. Construct a probability distribution for drawing a
card from a special deck of 40 cards consisting
of 10 cards numbered 1, 10 cards numbered 2, 15
cards numbered 3 and 5 cards numbered 4.

3. An experiment involves planting 3 seedlings in a

yard. The probability that each of the seedlings
survives is 0.75. Let a random variable x be the
number of surviving trees after one year of
planting. Construct a probability distribution for
this experiment.

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 Next Class . . .
 Combinatorial Analysis

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