Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247

www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Analysis of conceptual rainfall±runoff modelling performance in

different climates
R. LideÂn a,*, J. Harlin b,1
a
Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, P.O. Box 118, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden
b
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), c/o Department of Water Development, Kurima House Rm. 209, P/Bag 7712,
Causeway, Harare, Zimbabwe
Received 16 December 1999; revised 23 May 2000; accepted 4 September 2000

Abstract
With the objective of studying conceptual rainfall±runoff modelling performance in different climates, the HBV-96 model
was applied on four catchments located in Europe, Africa and South America. Manual, automatic and Monte Carlo techniques
were used for model calibration and parameter analyses. It was found that the magnitude of the water balance components had a
signi®cant in¯uence on model performance. Performance decreased and demands of calibration period length increased with
increased catchment dryness primarily because of a neater water balance and higher climatic variability in drier areas. A large
degree of equi®nality was discovered in all catchments where different calibration methods yielded equally good results but
with different parameter combinations. Thus, it may be impossible to know if an optimum parameter set exists and to relate
parameter values to physical properties of the catchment. On the other hand the validation results indicated that it might not
matter if parameter values were not unique when studying runoff solely, provided the model application is within the same
regime of ¯ows. q 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Conceptual rainfall±runoff modelling; Climate; Calibration; Monte Carlo simulation

1. Introduction cast. For these purposes, hydrologic models are gener-

In water related civil engineering activities the
catchment response to rainfall is often needed.
When designing hydraulic structures for example,
the long-term water availability and extreme ¯ows
are of interest. For operational water management,
the spatial and temporal distributions of the water
resources become important to understand and fore-
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 146-40-167281; fax: 146-40-
154347.
E-mail addresses: rikard.liden@sweco.se (R. LideÂn),
joakim.harlin@sweco.se (J. Harlin).
1
Present address: SWECO International AB, GjoÈrwellsg. 22, PO
Box 34044, SE-10026 Stockholm, Sweden.
0022-1694/00/$ - see front matter q 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0022-169 4(00)00330-9
ally used all over the world (e.g. Singh, 1995).
Conceptual rainfall±runoff (CRR) models are
normally run with point values of precipitation as
primary input data and produce catchment values of
evaporation, soil-moisture, runoff generation etc. In
regions where precipitation data series are available
but runoff data are scarce, CRR models are essential
tools. This is a common situation in many developing
countries, countries with a large need of developing
their infrastructure and water resources. Therefore,
CRR models that were developed in the industrial
part of the world are increasingly being applied in
countries and climates far from their original environ-
ment, e.g. the Danish NAM model (Nielsen and
232 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247

Fig. 1. The principal structure and parameters of the HBV-96 model when applied on catchments without snow as described by LindstroÈm et al.
(1997) including the recent modi®cations of the response routine by BergstroÈm et al. (1997).

Hansen, 1973) and the US Corps of Engineers model
SSARR (Rockwood, 1982). The HBV model (Lind-
stroÈm et al., 1997), used in this study, is another illus-
trative example. It was originally developed for ¯ow
forecasting in hydropower developed rivers of Scan-
dinavia (BergstroÈm, 1976) and has since then been
applied in more than 35 countries or regions of the
world (BergstroÈm, 1995).
The idea with CRR modelling is to consider the
catchment as a system whose components are preci-
pitation, EA, storage and runoff. The water balance
equation for a catchment model can be written as
P 2 EA ^ DS ˆ Q …1†
where P is total precipitation on the catchment, EA
the evapotranspiration, DS the change in water
storage, and Q the runoff from the catchment. So
long as no groundwater crosses the system bound-
aries, this equation holds true. CRR models include
relatively simple relationships between these vari-
ables and attempt to simulate the magnitudes and
dynamics of the water balance equation. In general
 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247
terms, one can conclude that the accuracy of a model
output is dependent on the quality of the input data,
the model structure and the calibration. A great
number of papers addressing one or several of these
aspects have been published during the past decades.
Some recent studies include Kuczera and Parent
(1998), Jakeman and Hornberger (1993), Gan and
Biftu (1996) and Refsgaard (1997). However, model
accuracy may also depend on the climatic zone, an
aspect that rarely is explicitly addressed. For instance,
how does the relative magnitude of each component
of the water balance equation affect the demand for
calibration data and the model performance? Is the
degree of variation in precipitation and river runoff
affecting the ability of a CRR model to simulate runoff
accurately? Is parameter inter-dependency solely an
effect of the model structure or also dependent on
where the model is applied?
The objectives of the study were therefore to
analyse CRR model performance, calibration and
parameter interdependence in different climatic
regions. A well established CRR model (e.g. WMO,
1987; Singh, 1995), the HBV model, was selected and
applied in four different river basins located in south-
ern Europe, Africa and South America. No catch-
ments from cold, temperate climate zones were
included since the model structure and number of
parameters then becomes very different, making
comparison dif®cult.
2. The HBV hydrological model
The HBV-96 version (LindstroÈm et al., 1997)
with changes suggested by BergstroÈm et al.,
1997, was used. It can be classi®ed as a semi-
distributed conceptual model (Fig. 1) and uses
subbasins, as primary hydrological units in which
an area-elevation distribution and a crude classi®-
cation of land use (forest, open areas, and lakes)
are made. The model has a number of free para-
meters, values of which are found by calibration
against observed runoff. In the studied catchments,
input data were daily values of precipitation and
mean monthly estimates of EP. All model para-
meters for corrections of input were regarded as
con®ned and not calibrated.
In the HBV model applications discussed in this
233
paper the water balance equation was simulated as
follows (see Fig. 1 for detailed equations). Precipita-
tion (P) over the catchment was calculated by weight-
ing rain gauge measurements according to a Thiessen
or isohyetal method. The areal precipitation was then
distributed over the elevation zones by correcting for
altitude with a constant lapse rate. Evapotranspira-
tion (EA) was computed as a function of the soil
moisture conditions and the potential evapotran-
spiration (EP). When the soil moisture exceeded
a storage threshold (LP), water would evaporate at
the potential rate. At lower soil moisture values a
linear relation between the ratio EA/EP and soil
moisture was used. The general storage variable
(S) was formed by soil moisture storage (SM)
and storage in the upper and lower response
boxes, respectively (hUZ and hLZ). Recharge to
groundwater was calculated through a non-linear
relation between the ratio R/P and the soil moist-
ure. The ¯ood regime of the catchment was
described by the out¯ow from the upper non-
linear reservoir (QUZ), while the base ¯ow (QLZ)
was governed from the lower response box which
is ®lled by percolation from the upper response
box. Runoff from the catchment (Q) was given
by the sum of the out¯ow from the two response
boxes.
3. Description of catchments
For an analysis of CRR model performance in
different climates preferably a large number of undis-
turbed data-intensive catchments of the same size
and shape but located in different climate zones
should be studied. However, in reality such mate-
rial is very dif®cult to obtain, which is why the
study was limited to four river basins located in
Turkey, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Bolivia. The
main selection criteria were accessible hydrome-
teorological data of good quality, catchment
areas in the same order and that the studied
river basins represent a variety in climate for
regions with rainfall generated runoff. Climatolo-
gically (Landsberg, 1981), the Tanzanian and
Bolivian river basins are de®ned as warm tempe-
rate forests, while the Zimbabwean and Turkish
basins are de®ned as steppe, bush or grasslands.
234 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247

Table 1
Characteristics and water balance of the studied catchments based on observations and model output. All values refer to averages for the entire
catchments over the studied time periods

Catchment Yassidere Ruwa Haga®ro Locotal

Country Turkey Zimbabwe Tanzania Bolivia

Area (km 2) 41 189 153 200
Alt. Diff. (m.a.sl.) 90±400 1500±1600 1800±2300 1700±4300
P (mm year 2l) 639 901 1336 2209
CV for P (daily) 3.46 2.93 1.90 1.46
EP (mm year 2l) 1650 1240 1050 700
EA (mm year 2l) 384 622 605 516
Q (mm year 2l) 222 254 724 1712
CV for Q (daily) 2.66 2.94 0.77 1.02
r.c. (runoff-coeff.) 0.35 0.28 0.54 0.78

Because of the mountainous character of the studied
basin in Bolivia it may, however, be described more
as a highland rain forest.
² Yassidere Turkey. The Yassidere river (Uzunoglu,
1997) drains a catchment of 41 km 2 in western
Turkey. The river gauge is located just NE of the
city of Seferihisar where a dam was constructed
between October 1987 and May 1994 for irrigation
purposes. To avoid arti®cial in¯uence on the river
¯ow, the studied period was chosen prior to the
dam construction. Vegetation is scarce in the
river basin with the exception of a small area of
pine forest. The geology is dominated by sedimen-
tary bedrock, mainly ¯ysch, and the soil consists
mainly of in situ weathered Forest and Mediterra-
nean soils. The HBV-96 set up used daily rainfall
and monthly pan evaporation data from one
meteorological station located within the catch-
ment area.
² Ruwa Zimbabwe. The Ruwa catchment (Johansson
et al., 1995) covers 189 km 2 and is located on the
high plateau that stretches across Zimbabwe from
SW to NE. The Ruwa river ¯ows in the northeast
part of the country, close to the capital Harare, and
drains into the Harava water supply reservoir. The
basin consists mostly of agricultural areas and the
soil is manly in situ weathered granite rock. The
HBV-96 set up used precipitation data from two
stations, of which one is located inside the catch-
ment, and monthly mean pan evaporation from a
meteorological station close to the studied basin.
Based on water rights records, abstractions from
the Ruwa river were included in the model set up
in order to describe the recorded ¯ow correctly.
² Haga®ro Tanzania. The Haga®ro river (LideÂn et
al., 1998), being a part of the Ru®ji basin, rises in
the Kilombero mountains in southwestern Tanza-
nia at about 2300 m.a.sl. It ¯ows in a westerly
direction down to the runoff station 1KB19 at
approximately 1800 m.a.sl. The 153 km 2 catch-
ment is characterised by a hilly landscape domi-
nated by grasslands with some wooded parts
located in the upper elevation zones. The soil
layer, mainly sandy loam and sandy clay, is rather
thick, which indicates large ®eld capacities and
slow drainage. A damped runoff dynamic is also
seen in the observed runoff data with base¯ow
comprising a large part of the total runoff and
even late in the dry season there is generally
much water ¯owing. Input data to the model were
taken from two meteorological stations within the
catchment.
² Locotal Bolivia. The Locotal catchment (Sundby et
al., 1995) is located on the eastern side of the Boli-
vian Andes close to the city of Cochabamba. It is a
mountainous drainage basin with steep slopes and
elevations between 1700 and 4300 m.a.sl. within
the 200 km 2 large catchment area. Bare mountains
and low temperatures characterise the upper part of
the catchment, while the lower parts are more like a
jungle with dense vegetation, high temperature and
large amounts of precipitation. The soil layers in
general increase in thickness as the altitude
decreases and consist of moraine in the upper
elevation zones and of glacial and ¯uvio-glacial
 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247 235

Table 2
Calibration and validation periods for the studied river basins. Dry and wet years have been de®ned as years having a mean annual runoff outside
the range mean ^ 0.5 SD

River basin Calibration period Dry years Wet years Validation period Dry years Wet years

Yassidere Aug. 1979±July 1983 1 2 Aug. 1983±July 1987 2 1

Ruwa Oct. 1975±Sep. 1979 1 2 Oct. 1979±Sep. 1983 3 1
Haga®ro Sep. 1966±Aug. 1970 2 1 Sep. 1970±Aug. 1974 1 1
Locotal Sep. 1969±Aug. 1973 2 1 Sep. 1973±Aug. 1977 2 2

deposits in the lower zones. Input data to the HBV- 3.1. Calibration and sensitivity analysis methodology
96 model were precipitation data from four rainfall
stations located inside the catchment area and For all catchments a calibration and a validation
potential evaporation data from two A-pan period of equal length (Table 2) was chosen with
measurements in a neighbouring catchment. the aim to include as much variety in the hydrological
regimes as possible. The periods thus included dry,
The four catchments show large differences in normal and wet years during both calibration and vali-
magnitude for the individual components of the dation periods. Insuf®cient data coverage and requi-
water balance equation (Table 1). Rainfall, runoff site equal length limited the duration of the calibration
and EP vary from 639±2209, 222±1712 and 1650± and validation periods to four years, respectively.
700 mm year 21, respectively, from the driest to the Manual calibration was made for each catchment
wettest catchment. The runoff coef®cients are also and the model performance for the validation period
very different with approximately 30% of the rainfall was recorded. The same procedure was followed
discharging as river runoff in the two semi-arid catch- using an automatic calibration method developed by
ments in Turkey and Zimbabwe compared with Harlin (1991) and further elaborated by LindstroÈm
almost 80% in the Bolivian rain forest. The coef®cient (1997). Initial parameter values and ranges (Table 3)
of variation (CV) shows an inverse relation to the as well as the order in which the parameters were
magnitude of both rainfall and runoff with higher optimised were equal for all four catchments. More-
CV for the dry catchments, the exception being the over, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) procedure for
low CV for runoff in the base¯ow-dominated Tanza- calibration and parameter analysis was applied for the
nian catchment. calibration period. The Monte Carlo scheme gener-
ated values randomly from uniform distributions
within a large hypercube de®ned by the upper and
Table 3 lower parameter boundaries given in Table 3. Each
Starting values and ranges for automatic and Monte Carlo calibra- of the 3000 Monte Carlo realisations included a
tion of model parameters three-year warm-up period to eliminate the in¯uence
of the initial model state. The parameter set that gave
Parameter Starting Lower Upper
values limit limit the best objective function value over the calibration
period was selected as the MCS calibration in the
FC (mm) 400 100 800 further analyses. Results from automatic and MCS
LP (%of FC) 75 50 100
calibrations were compared with those from manual
b 3 1 6
CFLUX (mm day 2l) 0.1 0 1 calibration and were used for parameter sensitivity
KHQ (day 2l) 0.2 0.05 0.8 and inter-dependency analysis.
a 1 0 3 Nine model parameters, which are essential for the
PERC (mm day 2l) 1 0.1 5 HBV-96 soil moisture and response routines, were
K4 (day 21) 0.05 0.0005 0.1
selected (Fig. 1); the maximum soil moisture storage
MAXBAS (day) 1 1 4
(FC), the limit for potential evaporation (LP), the beta
236 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247

Fig. 2. HBV-96 model performance plotted against precipitation for the studied basins. Results for both the calibration and validation periods
from manual, automatic and Monte Carlo calibrations are depicted.

coef®cient (b ), the capillary ¯ux rate (CFLUX), the
percolation rate (PERC), the recession parameters
(KHQ, K4 and a ) and the transformation function
parameter (MAXBAS) which describes the channel
¯ow hydraulics.
Model performance was estimated through the
explained variance, R 2, (Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970)
MSE…Q†
R2 ˆ 1 2 …
VAR…Qobs †
the relative volume error, VE
P was obtained in the wetter basins than in the drier ones
…Qsim 2 Qobs †
VE ˆ P …3†
…Qobs †
and the combined criterion RV2 suggested by Lind-
stroÈm (1997)
R2V ˆ R2 2 wuVEu …
where MSE(Q) is the mean square error between
simulated and observed runoff, VAR is the statistical
variance and Qsim and Qobs are simulated and observed
daily runoff values, respectively. The weighting factor
w was set to 0.1 (LindstroÈm, 1997).
4. Results and discussion
4.1. Model performance and calibration
It was possible to calibrate the model with good
2†
results (RV2 values over validation periods ranging
from about 0.6±0.8) in all four catchments. Better
performance, as measured by the objective functions,
(Fig. 2). However, this difference was dif®cult to
appraise when visually inspecting the results (Fig.
3). The model's abrupt performance in the transition
between the ¯ood and the low ¯ow periods in the
Haga®ro application is due to the lumped description
4† in the response function and that the catchment was
not subdivided into sub-basins. Without sub-division
of the catchment this error is dif®cult to eliminate by
calibration.
All three calibration methods (manual, automatic
 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247 237

Fig. 3. Time series plots of model performance over two years of the validation periods for the studied catchments. Bold line denotes modelled
and thin line denotes observed runoff. The calibrations with the highest RV2 value over the validation period are depicted.
238 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247
Fig. 4. Scatter plots and logarithmic trendlines of calibration period
length versus model performance over the whole period. The ®gure
is based on applications of the automatic calibration routine (Harlin,
1991) to different subsets of the total data sets. The horizontal line
denotes the RV2 level from calibrating over all available years.
and Monte Carlo) yielded a similar model perfor-
mance quality, both as judged visually and in terms
of the RV2 criterion on both calibration and validation
periods. A closer look at the results of the two search-
ing methods Ð manual and automatic calibration Ð
shows that for the dry catchments manual calibration
leads to better model performance over the validation
period with the reverse pattern for the more humid
catchments. This is probably due to the ability of an
experienced modeller to balance model performance
better over several components of the runoff hydro-
graph, especially when these are of clearly different
magnitude and character like the ¯ood and base¯ow
periods in Yassidere and Ruwa. Automatic calibration
is con®ned to hunting down the optimum of a
response surface generated by an objective function.
Most objective functions, e.g. the R 2 criterion
suggested by Nash and Sutcliffe (1970), focus on
the variance of the runoff series. A drawback with
such objective functions is that they display a larger
relative sensitivity to ¯ood than to base¯ow periods.
In dry catchments where the CV in both rainfall and
runoff is high it is important not to rely on only one
measure of model goodness. The combined criterion
RV2 gives better guidance than a single criterion but,
before using the model, visual inspection of the model
performance with emphasis on the ¯ow components
important for the application at hand is advisable.
Fig. 4 shows the objective function (Eq. (4)) values
for the whole eight-year period of data using model
parameter combinations obtained by applying the
automatic calibration routine for different number of
years. A clear relation between required number of
calibration years and inter-annual climatic variability
was found where the required length of the calibration
period dropped from approximately seven years in
Yassidere to four years in Locotal. In a more detailed
study of this particular aspect Yapo et al. (1996) found
that approximately eight years were needed to cali-
brate the NWSRFS-SMA model accurately in a case
study in Southern USA. They also discovered that the
reduction in parameter uncertainty was maximal when
the wettest data periods on record were used. Simi-
larly, Gupta et al. (1999) found that model perfor-
mance tends to improve with ¯ow level and they
also reported that the model error variance increased
with wetness of the year.
Houghton-Carr (1999) reported after studying the
 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247 239

Fig. 5. Reduction in model performance, after re-calibration, at different levels of assumed systematic errors in observed precipitation data.

performance of four CRR models on 25 catchments
in the UK that all models tended to show good
performances on base¯ow dominated catchments.
Houghton-Carr concluded that ªthe probable reason
for the apparent better model performance on base-
¯ow dominated basins include the smaller variability
in ¯ow regime of the base¯ow dominated basins, and
the fact that the ¯ashier basins may be less well repre-
sented by a model with a daily time stepº.
But parameter sensitivity and model performance
may also be related to the representativeness of the
input data, with precipitation data being the most

Fig. 6. Results from 3000 runs with parameter sets generated through a Monte Carlo procedure (only results with R2 . 0 are plotted i.e. a model
performance better than using the mean ¯ow as model).
240 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247
important input variable. Hughes (1997) highlighted
this aspect among others in an evaluation of the
applicability of two CRR models (VTI and Pitman)
on a large number of catchments in 10 countries of
Southern and Eastern Africa. He concluded that they
were more successful in the wetter catchments. For
the drier parts of the region the rainfall tended to be
highly spatially variable and the density of the
gauging network low, which in principle explained
the poorer results on arid and semi-arid catchments.
In the present study, however, no signi®cant differ-
ence in spatial variability of the precipitation input
was found with an average correlation between preci-
pitation stations in the studied catchments varying
from 0.33 to 0.44, indicating that spatial variability
was not the main reason for different model perfor-
mances. On the other hand it was discovered that
systematic errors and inadequacies in the input data
could easily be compensated in the calibration
process. When applying the automatic calibration
routine on runoff data series, which had been altered
to simulate systematic errors in input data, this ability
was clearly seen (Fig. 5). The ability to compensate
errors was larger in the drier catchments but systema-
tic errors in precipitation volume of ^20% could
easily be accommodated in all of the studied catch-
ments without loss of model performance.
The results of the MCS displayed a tendency that
parameter sets resulting in a high R 2 value led to low
accumulated volume errors and vice versa. And, the
risk of obtaining a model with poor volume perfor-
mance characteristics decreased with increasing
wetness of the catchment, which is seen by the
decreased spread of the MCS swarms (Fig. 6). One
explanation is that the wetter a catchment is the smal-
ler the share of precipitation lost through evaporation
(Eq. (1)). Consequently the relative in¯uence of a
model error on runoff volume accounting becomes
less in wet compared with dry catchments. The runoff
coef®cients in the studied catchments range from 0.35
in the driest catchment, Yassidere, to 0.78 in the
wettest, Locotal (Table 1). Moreover, in very wet
basins the amplitude of the soil moisture modelling
becomes small, with low soil moisture de®cits and
thus EA close to the potential rate most of the time
no matter how the model's soil parameters are set.
The central points of the resulting MCS swarms are
dependent on the precipitation and evaporation
correction factors, but the fact that they have an incli-
nation towards a negative VE in all catchments neces-
sitates an explanation. Since the soil moisture is the
driving variable for both recharge and EA, the HBV-
96 model tends not to reduce the actual EA lower than
the product of the long term runoff coef®cient and EP.
All parameter combinations will thus generate a long
term EA from this minimum level to the EP rate
thereby creating a bias towards an underestimation
of runoff volume. Furthermore, of the model's non-
linear soil moisture formulation it follows that the
relative in¯uence of changes in the model parameters
on EA decreases when the soil moisture contents
approach the maximum storage capacity. Both these
model features become more pronounced in dry
catchments, which explains the MCS swarm beha-
viour in Yassidere, Ruwa and to some extent also in
Haga®ro (Fig. 6). In wet catchments, like the excep-
tionally wet Locotal, modelled EA will be close to the
potential rate for the majority of the combinations of
the soil parameters as explained above. Since the
HBV-96 estimated areal Pand EP in Locotal give a
difference of 1509 mm and Q is 1712 mm it follows
that most of the MCS's will have a negative VE.
A further observation was that the MCS's revealed
several clusters within the hypercube. The resulting
model performances were, however, similar for all
calibration methods (manual, automatic and MCS)
despite the resulting parameter sets belonging to
different optima. The presence of multiple clusters,
each with several local optima, is unfortunately a
common dif®culty encountered in calibrating hydro-
logic models (e.g. Sorooshian and Gupta, 1995).
Because the response surface of the parameters
proved very complex a more detailed analysis of
model output sensitivity to parameter values was
conducted.
4.2. Parameter interdependence and equi®nality
Parameter interdependence and sensitivity analysis
based on the results of the Monte Carlo simulations
was done in three ways: (i) plotting of frequency
histograms for parameter values using a GLUE-like
methodology (Beven and Binley, 1992); (ii) plotting
the best model performance obtained over the full
range of values for the individual parameters; (iii)
multiple linear regression between the objective
 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247
Fig. 7. Examples of how mean R 2 and VE as well as the estimated cumulative probability density functions change with increasing number of
MCS realisations.
function (dependent variable) and the model para-
meters (explanatory variables).
In the GLUE-like procedure, the objective function
RV2 was taken as the likelihood measure. A censor
level of R2 V $ 0 was applied whereby parameter
sets yielding a model performance poorer than the
mean of the observed runoff were considered dissim-
ilar to the system studied and thus discarded
(weight ˆ 0). With the objective of comparing four
areas with different magnitudes of runoff in mind a
dimensionless weight function ((RV2 ) N, with N ˆ 4†;
also based on the objective function, was applied to
the remaining parameters. The resulting frequency
histograms constitute an estimation of the parameters'
probability density function (PDF) and generally
show a number of interesting features of the multi-
dimensional parameter space such as; if the chance of
good model performance is larger at any interval of
the parameter range, the presence of bimodality and
the model output sensitivity to the studied parameter
241
(e.g. Hornberger et al., 1986; Harlin and Kung, 1992;
Beven and Binley, 1992). Recent research, particu-
larly that addressing the assessment of parameter
and model prediction uncertainty, has dealt with
development of sampling, updating and analyses tech-
niques in order to produce more reliable estimates of
the PDF's (e.g. Gupta et al., 1998; Campbell et al.,
1999; Kuczera and Parent, 1998).
If, for the sake of understanding, the multidimen-
sional parameter space is transformed to a two-dimen-
sional response surface, the frequency histograms
show the dividend of the response surface area
where good model results are obtained. Plotting the
best model performance obtained over the full range
of values for the individual parameters can in a two-
dimensional outlook be interpreted as a silhouette of
the response surface. The silhouette gives the upper
boundary curve of the model performance for the
studied parameter but gives no information on how
large area each mountain (sub-optima) represents. If
242 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247

Fig. 8. Parameter frequency histograms (columns) overlaid silhouette curves (bold line) for the maximum soil moisture parameter FC, the ¯ood
recession coef®cient KHQ and the base¯ow generation parameter, PERC.
 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247
the silhouette curve shows a marked peak or slope it
indicates that model output is sensitive to the indivi-
dual value of the studied parameter irrespective of
how the values of the remaining parameters are set.
When multiple clusters are suspected, either a more
detailed sub-space analysis or a large hypercube
analysis should be undertaken (Kuczera, 1997). To
avoid the risk of missing major clusters the latter
approach was adopted. However, it is important that
the number of MCS realisations is suf®cient to
produce reliable results. It was found that the general
patterns of the parameter distributions were seen
fairly early. The effect of increasing the number of
runs on the estimation of the PDF's is illustrated for
parameters FC and KHQ in the model application to
the Haga®ro catchment (Fig. 7). Already after
approximately 1000 runs the sampling of the mean
R 2 and VE had reached stability and the cumulative
PDF's had approached their ®nal shapes. For the
purpose at hand, where the primary objective is not
to estimate con®dence limits but rather the relative
importance of the model parameters in different
climates, it was judged that 3000 MCS runs resulted
in suf®ciently accurate parameter histograms to allow
comparison.
In Fig. 8, parameter frequency histograms overlaid
silhouette curves for the maximum soil moisture
storage parameter FC, the ¯ood recession coef®cient
KHQ and the base¯ow generation parameter, PERC,
are shown. In general the results showed that for the
majority of the parameters the silhouette curves were
almost uniformly distributed over the full parameter
range, with a few noted exceptions. This indicated that
a large number of combinations of parameter values
could achieve equally good model performance over
the whole range of individual parameter values, a
phenomenon de®ned as equi®nality by Beven
(1993). The frequency histograms quali®ed these ®nd-
ings by showing that although good performance
could be achieved over the full range a marked
concentration of good results stemmed from certain
parameter intervals, most clearly seen for the FC and
the recession coef®cient KHQ. In Fig. 8 the following
observations can be made:
Yassidere and Ruwa. In Yassidere and especially in
Ruwa, the silhouette curves for all parameters were
more or less uniform over their full ranges. This indi-
cates that the model output was either insensitive to
243
the parameter or that the effects of a change is
compensated by changes in the other parameters,
which is also seen in the rounded shape of their
MCS swarms (Fig. 6). Although a large degree of
equi®nality is present in these catchments the
frequency histograms showed that the chance of a
good result was greatly increased if the soil moisture
and recession parameters, FC and KHQ, were set in
certain intervals. This is more pronounced in Yassi-
dere than in Ruwa and may explain why the front of
the MCS swarm for Yassidere is more sparse than that
of Ruwa. The model output was, according to the
silhouette and frequency histograms, to a lesser
degree sensitive to the base¯ow parameters in these
catchments.
Haga®ro and Locotal. The parameter analysis for
the application on Haga®ro showed that careful cali-
bration of all three major hydrological processes, the
soil moisture accounting, the ¯ood response and the
base¯ow generation, was important. This is seen by
the peaks in the silhouette and frequency histograms
for the strongest parameters in the model formulation
of these processes. For Locotal the silhouette and
frequency histograms con®rmed the low importance
and large parameter interdependence present in the
soil moisture modelling of this catchment. The
model output was insensitive to individual parameter
values of the soil and base ¯ow routines, shown by the
horizontal silhouette curves for FC and PERC. Only
the recession parameter KHQ and the routing para-
meter MAXBAS (not shown) had a signi®cant in¯u-
ence on the model performance at Locotal.
It should be noted that the chosen methodology of
®nding the marginal parameter distributions where a
continuous weighting function, assigning relatively
large weight to the few best model runs, can be
equivalent to a discrete weighting procedure whereby
only the parameter sets resulting in good model
performance are studied (Harlin and Kung, 1992). In
both methodologies the results are in¯uenced by
subjective decisions e.g. how to conduct the sampling,
which censor level to choose for acceptable or good
model performance, which weight/likelihood function
to apply, etc. Beven and Binley (1992) acknowledge
this problem but go on to conclude that as long as an
explicit likelihood de®nition is used the results will be
consistent and allow comparison.
Multiple linear regression was used as a diagnostic
244 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247

Table 4 parameters entered the regression equation of which

Results from multiple regression analysis between RV2 (dependent) three describe the ¯ood regime and one the base¯ow
and model parameters (explanatory) made from the results of the
Monte Carlo runs. Stepwise forward selection (in p ˆ 0:05 out p ˆ
regime, the reason being the high runoff coef®cient.
0:10† was applied. Only signi®cant variables were included …F , No ®rm conclusions can be drawn from the results of
0:05† the regression analysis for the two drier catchments,
Yassidere and Ruwa, even if the low sensitivity to
Catchment Parameters in the regression Correlation r
base ¯ow parameters was con®rmed by the low corre-
Yassidere b 20.25 lation coef®cient values. In general, dry catchments
FC 10.18 have more signi®cant parameters than wet catchments
KHQ 20.15 since the hydrological memory in soil etc. becomes
PERC 10.13
more important. However, in the present study the
a 20.13
MAXBAS 20.09 chief reason for the obtained results is believed to
LP 10.05 be related to the number of important hydrological
processes involved. In very dry basins, base ¯ow is
Ruwa MAXBAS 10.56
KHQ 20.22 almost absent. Thus parameters describing base ¯ow
FC 10.19 become insigni®cant. In extremely wet basins the
a 20.13 soils are almost always saturated which is why soil
b 20.10 moisture accounting parameters become unimportant.
LP 20.09
It is therefore logical that the Haga®ro catchment
PERC 10.07
(medium dry/wet) has more signi®cant parameters
Haga®ro KHQ 20.51 than a very wet or a very dry catchment, since para-
FC 10.47
meters describing soil moisture dynamics, quick ¯ow
PERC 10.35
MAXBAS 10.26 and base ¯ow all are important.
a 20.25 That equally good model simulations were obtained
K4 20.11 with completely different combinations of parameter
LP 20.10 values is not surprising. Corresponding results have
b 20.07
been reported by other researchers, for example for
CFLUX 20.05
Scandinavian catchments by Harlin and Kung (1992)
Locotal MAXBAS 10.50 and Seibert (1997), for German catchments by Uhlen-
KHQ 20.45
brook et al. (1999), for North American catchments by
a 20.31
PERC 10.15 Gan and Biftu (1996) and by Beven (1993) when
applying the TOPMODEL to a New Zealand catch-
ment. The present study, however, shows that if the
tool to check the relative strength of the parameters same model structure is used the degree of equi®nality
and more importantly to determine the number of is related to the characteristics of the catchment with
dimensions of the crucial parameter space. A small climate as an important factor.
number of parameters entering the regression equa- BergstroÈm (1991) argues that achieving good
tion indicates a small crucial parameter space that has model performance is not suf®cient Ð the model
to be searched for good parameter combinations. The has to perform well for the right reason Ð which is
results (Table 4) emphasised the earlier ®nding that particularly important if other outputs than total runoff
the model set-up in Haga®ro resulted in the lowest are studied. But, fully to capture the complexity and
degree of equi®nality. All nine parameters, of which heterogeneity of the rainfall±runoff processes
the ®rst three were KHQ, FC and PERC, entered the involved in a catchment would require unattainable
regression equation. The large crucial parameter amounts of observation data. Given the inherent
space and the low degree of equi®nality explain limitations of information in calibration data only a
why so few good MCS were obtained (Fig. 6). Locotal small number of parameters can be uniquely identi®ed
showed also in this analysis the largest degree of which calls for a parsimonious model. The develop-
equi®nality of the studied catchments. Only four ment of the HBV model structure was based on
 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247
principles of parsimony, i.e. to strive for simplicity
(e.g. BergstroÈm, 1976, 1991). The results of the para-
meter analyses in the present study imply that the
principle of parsimony should be followed even
more strictly by using different model structures in
different catchments to avoid parameter identi®cation
and equi®nality problems.
The use of a parsimonious model, however, means
that internal model storages and parameters become
integrated effective values for the catchment, thus not
directly measurable properties. Despite this fact,
attempts to link CRR model parameters to their physi-
cal equivalents in the catchment and regionalisation of
model parameter values for applications in un-gauged
catchments are often reported (e.g. Hughes, 1997).
Moreover, when calibrating a CRR model such as
the HBV-96 solely against total runoff it can be
argued that it is impossible to know if an optimum
parameter set exists and, if one exists, to know if this
global optimum has been found. Bearing in mind that
the calibration also might compensate for inadequa-
cies in the input data, assessing if the model performs
well for the right reason becomes still more dif®cult.
Beven (1993) drew the conclusion that, because of
equi®nality, the reliability of CRR model predictions
should be questioned and seen as prophecies. On the
other hand the results from the present study suggest
that: (i) despite the fact that equi®nality existed the
chance of achieving a better system description
increased if PDF's are derived and parameter sets
are formed from the parameter intervals with high
frequencies of good model performance; and (ii) it
may not matter if parameter values are not unique
when studying total runoff, provided the model appli-
cation is within the same regime of ¯ows.
5. Conclusions
The application of the HBV-96 model in four
climatologically different river basins in Europe,
Africa and South America showed that the magnitude
of the individual components of the water balance
equation for the studied catchments had a signi®cant
in¯uence on model performance. Model performance
increased and the demand of calibration period length
decreased with increased catchment wetness and
corresponding reduced climatic variability. A clear
245
tendency that parameter sets yielding model outputs
with a high degree of explained variance also
produced outputs with low volume errors and vice
versa, was found. The risk of obtaining a model
with poor volume performance characteristics
increased with increasing dryness of the catchment.
The model applications in the four climatically
different catchments displayed a large degree of equi-
®nality where manual, automated search and Monte
Carlo calibration methods yielded equally good
results but with different parameter combinations.
However, the degree of equi®nality varied in different
catchments mainly because the hydrological
processes described by the model parameters were
diversely important. Parameter results also illustrated
CRR models' large ability to compensate for errors in
the input data through the calibration.
When a CRR model is calibrated against total
runoff a large degree of equi®nality is often found
which is why it might be impossible to know if a
single optimum exists and to relate parameter values
to physical properties of the catchment. The results of
this study indicate that it is essential to understand the
reasons for equi®nal results before applying a CRR
model to real life problems. Equi®nality may for
example be caused by a too complex model given
the information available for parameter identi®cation,
it could be a result of multiple clusters of optima
within the feasible parameter space, stem from erro-
neous input data or as in the Locotal case be a result of
indifference to the parameters in a model routine.
Ideally the model structure should be ¯exible enough
to enable the modeller to match the complexity to
information available.
In the present study a large degree of equi®nality
was found in all catchments but the subsequent effects
on the validation period results were small. This indi-
cates that CRR parameter values might not have to be
unique if total runoff is the only variable of interest,
provided the model application is within the same
regime of ¯ows.
Acknowledgements
Hydrometeorological data have kindly been made
available through Timur Uzunoglu, Technical Univer-
sity of Vienna, Austria (Yassidere), Department of
246 R. LideÂn, J. Harlin / Journal of Hydrology 238 (2000) 231±247
Water Development, Zimbabwe (Ruwa), Tanzania
Electric Supply Company Ltd, Tanzania (Haga®ro)
and Empresa Nacional de Electricidad, Bolivia (Loco-
tal). This paper was improved by the constructive and
critical comments of our colleagues at Department of
Water Resources Engineering, Lund University and
the Research Division of the Swedish Meteorological
and Hydrological Institute as well as of the two
reviewers.
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