Socio-economic indicators

Time Imports (in USD million)

Jan-00 3879.00
Feb-00 4344.00
Mar-00 4871.00
Apr-00 4401.00
May-00 4371.00
Jun-00 4028.00
Jul-00 4487.00
Aug-00 3993.00
Sep-00 4249.00
Oct-00 4264.00
Nov-00 4698.00
Dec-00 3976.00
Jan-01 4007.00
Feb-01 3457.00
Mar-01 4625.00
Apr-01 4094.00
May-01 4674.00
Jun-01 4017.00
Jul-01 4923.00
Aug-01 4372.00
Sep-01 3902.00
Oct-01 4093.00
Nov-01 4158.00
Dec-01 4079.00
Jan-02 4243.00
Feb-02 3759.00
Mar-02 4433.00
Apr-02 4207.00
May-02 5181.00
Jun-02 4251.00
Jul-02 4874.00
Aug-02 4861.00
Sep-02 5086.00
Oct-02 5593.00
Nov-02 5072.00
Dec-02 4972.00
Jan-03 5571.00
Feb-03 4631.00
Mar-03 5891.00
Apr-03 5764.00
May-03 6175.00
Jun-03 5727.00
Jul-03 5784.00
Aug-03 5785.00
Sep-03 6305.00
Oct-03 7019.00
Nov-03 6467.00
Dec-03 7450.00
Jan-04 6898.00
Feb-04 6844.00
Mar-04 8034.00
Apr-04 6987.00
May-04 8073.00
Jun-04 8717.00
Jul-04 7872.00
Aug-04 8132.00
Sep-04 9420.00
Oct-04 8989.00
Nov-04 9358.00
Dec-04 10457.00
Jan-05 11009.00
Feb-05 10357.00
Mar-05 12369.00
Apr-05 11336.00
May-05 13232.00
Jun-05 11803.00
Jul-05 11509.00
Aug-05 12760.00
Sep-05 12896.00
Oct-05 11883.00
Nov-05 11326.00
Dec-05 12390.00
Jan-06 12894.00
Feb-06 11535.00
Mar-06 14314.00
Apr-06 12924.50
May-06 15106.00
Jun-06 14400.10
Jul-06 14985.40
Aug-06 15326.70
Sep-06 17351.10
Oct-06 17512.40
Nov-06 16381.20
Dec-06 15679.60
Jan-07 14446.90
Feb-07 14484.70
Mar-07 17136.60
Apr-07 18370.60
May-07 21149.50
Jun-07 20016.00
Jul-07 21128.60
Aug-07 20365.90
Sep-07 18217.50
Oct-07 21832.60
Nov-07 22104.10
Dec-07 20116.90
Jan-08 22844.40
Feb-08 20804.40
Mar-08 23573.70
Apr-08 30316.90
May-08 29443.60
Jun-08 28950.60
Jul-08 31625.50
Aug-08 33523.20
Sep-08 31135.70
Oct-08 25869.30
Nov-08 23488.20
Dec-08 19456.30
Jan-09 18228.20
Feb-09 15062.20
Mar-09 16596.60
Apr-09 19340.70
May-09 20036.40
Jun-09 23055.00
Jul-09 21723.50
Aug-09 22448.70
Sep-09 21527.20
Oct-09 25935.80
Nov-09 24996.50
Dec-09 28251.40
Jan-10 25267.00
Feb-10 26163.80
Mar-10 29626.90
Apr-10 31674.90
May-10 29747.10
Jun-10 28648.60
Jul-10 29669.90
Aug-10 27107.70
Sep-10 29511.80
Oct-10 32461.70
Nov-10 28842.30
Dec-10 31511.10
Jan-11 33353.60
Feb-11 32973.40
Mar-11 34267.00
Apr-11 36595.90
May-11 45254.20
Jun-11 40849.50
Jul-11 41105.90
Aug-11 39984.70
Sep-11 39756.10
Oct-11 41175.10
Nov-11 39102.50
Dec-11 40044.10
Jan-12 42952.50
Feb-12 40118.50
Mar-12 42380.70
Apr-12 38171.00
May-12 42187.30
Jun-12 36157.40
Jul-12 40619.40
Aug-12 37307.30
Sep-12 42051.40
Oct-12 44243.80
Nov-12 40454.00
Dec-12 43050.60
Jan-13 44754.70
Feb-13 40792.00
Mar-13 40947.80
Apr-13 41577.10
May-13 43987.10
Jun-13 35304.40
Jul-13 38326.40
Aug-13 37026.00
Sep-13 34258.20
Oct-13 38075.00
Nov-13 33772.90
Dec-13 36580.10
Jan-14 36346.30
Feb-14 33665.60
Mar-14 41294.50
Apr-14 35795.60
May-14 39058.90
Jun-14 38352.40
Jul-14 40068.00
Aug-14 37472.80
Sep-14 43341.70
Oct-14 39468.80
Nov-14 42722.50
Dec-14 35333.30
Jan-15 32265.40
Feb-15 28725.40
Mar-15 35428.70
Apr-15 33506.50
May-15 32837.80
Jun-15 33536.20
Jul-15 36372.10
Aug-15 33981.70
Sep-15 32035.30
Oct-15 31148.30
Nov-15 29896.40
Dec-15 34096.50
Jan-16 28866.50
Feb-16 27419.00
Mar-16 27310.30
Apr-16 25689.20
May-16 28286.20
Jun-16 30917.00
Jul-16 29305.20
Aug-16 29303.20
Sep-16 31839.00
Oct-16 34495.10
Nov-16 33461.90
Dec-16 34602.50
Jan-17 32261.10
Feb-17 34248.40
Mar-17 39946.70
Apr-17 38834.70
May-17 38278.70
Jun-17 37055.00
Jul-17 34215.00
Aug-17 36070.60
Sep-17 37962.70
Oct-17 37501.40
Nov-17 41390.20
Dec-17 42030.80
Jan-18 40701.20
Feb-18 37871.30
Mar-18 42801.20
Apr-18 39950.40
May-18 43916.50
Jun-18 44304.20
Jul-18 44387.50
Aug-18 45724.20
Sep-18 42820.20
Oct-18 44678.00
Nov-18 43648.70
Dec-18 42344.20
Jan-19 41455.20
Feb-19 36591.10
Mar-19 43690.40
Apr-19 42387.30
May-19 46683.40
Jun-19 41032.50
Jul-19 39759.70
Aug-19 39852.10
Sep-19 37694.80
Oct-19 37986.40
Nov-19 38523.20
Dec-19 39594.10
Jan-20 41143.90
Feb-20 37501.50
Mar-20 31165.40
Apr-20 17118.40
May-20 22201.30
Jun-20 21114.40
Jul-20 28469.10
Aug-20 29473.90
Sep-20 30306.80
Oct-20 34073.50
Nov-20 33811.20
Dec-20 42933.30
Jan-21 41955.10
Feb-21 40546.80
Mar-21 48406.60
Apr-21 45751.20
May-21 38554.40
Jun-21 42060.00
Jul-21 46037.00
Aug-21 45085.00
Sep-21 55835.00
Oct-21 55374.00
Nov-21 53417.00
Dec-21 60295.00
Jan-22 52487.00
Feb-22 55830.00
Mar-22 62977.00
Apr-22 60187.00 70000.00
May-22 63223.00
60000.00
Jun-22 60036.30
Jul-22 59933.30 50000.00
Aug-22 59089.10
Sep-22 59085.10 40000.00

Oct-22 60899.60
30000.00
Nov-22 57764.40
Dec-22 60134.70 20000.00
Jan-23 57892.40
10000.00
Feb-23 55733.70
Mar-23 60214.50 0.00
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 9
Apr-23 58556.10
May-23 61217.30
Jun-23 60092.40
Jul-23 61554.50
Aug-23 62087.30
Sep-23 62867.00
Oct-23 65466.10
Nov-23 62397.80
Dec-23 65232.20

here we are assuming seasonality

season 12
Holt-Winter Multiplicative

data u v s forecast
3879.00 0.9027754
4344.00 1.0109967
4871.00 1.1336475
4401.00 1.0242625
4371.00 1.0172805
4028.00 0.9374527
4487.00 1.0442777
3993.00 0.929307
4249.00 0.9888869
4264.00 0.992378
4698.00 1.0933845
3976.00 4296.75 -8.055556 0.9253506
4007.00 4405.0473 -7.88936 0.9053365 3871.7276
3457.00 3637.9162 -8.97384 0.9883347 4445.5121
4625.00 3979.0006 -8.473827 1.1443594 4113.9416
4094.00 3991.1007 -8.444439 1.0248296 4066.8618
4674.00 4457.8398 -7.7657 1.0289271 4051.4786
4017.00 4321.9047 -7.948774 0.9344668 4171.7341
4923.00 4624.7993 -7.504774 1.0518162 4504.9677
4372.00 4685.0733 -7.407961 0.930751 4290.8843
3902.00 4109.4028 -8.219651 0.9741998 4625.6822
4093.00 4119.2397 -8.19386 0.9928452 4069.9237
4158.00 3871.7443 -8.535671 1.0861263 4494.954
4079.00 4286.2913 -7.931352 0.9351606 3574.8223
4243.00 4595.406 -7.478492 0.912045 3873.3552
3759.00 3978.7077 -8.348685 0.9720808 4534.4079
4433.00 3895.3667 -8.455802 1.1419932 4543.5177
4207.00 4056.3159 -8.213828 1.0294265 3983.4214
5181.00 4814.7053 -7.118834 1.0465228 4165.2019
4251.00 4606.883 -7.405513 0.9300943 4492.5299
4874.00 4626.1989 -7.367345 1.0524687 4837.8048
4861.00 5087.7145 -6.697605 0.9399639 4298.9821
5086.00 5189.4786 -6.542682 0.9763866 4949.9256
5593.00 5532.6529 -6.043156 0.9995856 5145.8529
5072.00 4861.2926 -6.993476 1.0701609 6002.596
4972.00 5213.385 -6.480568 0.9420787 4539.5493
5571.00 5906.8103 -5.480842 0.9236521 4748.9312
4631.00 5018.1858 -6.7423 0.9537066 5736.5692
5891.00 5125.6537 -6.579165 1.1447262 5723.0344
 5764.00 5491.9237 -6.046597 1.0369328 5269.7112
6175.00 5807.8308 -5.586728 1.0527537 5741.0954
5727.00 6078.058 -5.192763 0.9346274 5396.634
5784.00 5624.6514 -5.832979 1.0434609 6391.5005
5785.00 6034.7748 -5.238838 0.9469224 5281.4865
6305.00 6361.8415 -4.764182 0.9818643 5887.1584
7019.00 6873.3275 -4.026785 1.0076493 6354.4428
6467.00 6227.6815 -4.943256 1.058319 7351.2572
7450.00 7531.3976 -3.074003 0.9596603 5862.309
6898.00 7481.6212 -3.140712 0.9230329 6953.5521
6844.00 7243.7647 -3.475973 0.9503876 7132.2765
8034.00 7067.8904 -3.722222 1.1417273 8288.1482
6987.00 6811.0047 -4.083834 1.0327932 7325.0679
8073.00 7475.9163 -3.128259 1.0628719 7166.0108
8717.00 8912.3804 -1.071985 0.950842 6984.2725
7872.00 7849.6756 -2.588392 1.0283036 9298.6016
8132.00 8422.275 -1.76681 0.9538681 7430.583
9420.00 9331.7328 -0.465242 0.9921619 8267.7967
8989.00 9012.5059 -0.920553 1.0038215 9402.6449
9358.00 8880.1521 -1.108288 1.0566367 9537.1324
10457.00 10445.671 1.129439 0.9751188 8520.8658
11009.00 11596.181 2.7711825 0.9328591 9642.7403
10357.00 11054.39 1.9933449 0.9453591 11023.501
12369.00 10883.378 1.746229 1.139778 12623.375
11336.00 10955.737 1.8470897 1.0335081 11242.083
13232.00 12115.91 3.5016104 1.0737857 11646.508
11803.00 12347.548 3.8274748 0.9527289 11523.645
11509.00 11451.278 2.5417996 1.0196225 12700.965
12760.00 12947.277 4.675013 0.9656856 10925.434
12896.00 12987.614 4.7259518 0.9924545 12850.434
11883.00 12095.798 3.445355 0.9958302 13041.99
11326.00 11027.404 1.9143695 1.045606 12784.504
12390.00 12331.392 3.7742163 0.9861775 10754.896
12894.00 13489.728 5.4233593 0.9414344 11506.972
11535.00 12490.781 3.9887451 0.9371948 12757.764
14314.00 12544.324 4.0595272 1.1402616 14241.263
12924.50 12515.057 4.0119242 1.0332126 12968.857
15106.00 13721.819 5.7298986 1.0838946 13442.798
14400.10 14804.597 7.268325 0.9601732 13078.631
14985.40 14722.678 7.1409317 1.0189591 15102.511
15326.70 15616.203 8.4070191 0.9715727 14224.374
17351.10 17067.685 10.468266 1.001467 15506.715
17512.40 17472.291 11.031243 0.9982429 17006.941
16381.20 16072.698 9.016346 1.0357497 18280.666
15679.60 15940.122 8.8140986 0.9852366 15859.424
14446.90 15480.458 8.1449387 0.9383745 15014.877
14484.70 15462.804 8.1080873 0.9370268 14515.838
17136.60 15127.496 7.6175617 1.1374813 17640.886
18370.60 17188.959 10.551217 1.0464721 15637.789
21149.50 18995.578 13.11667 1.0949018 18642.456
20016.00 20435.568 15.154777 0.9673739 18251.64
21128.60 20671.836 15.470609 1.0201297 20838.449
20365.90 20900.443 15.775048 0.9726369 20099.223
18217.50 18799.91 12.752172 0.9893588 20946.903
21832.60 21187.519 16.144351 1.0102604 18779.608
22104.10 21310.43 16.296854 1.0363071 21961.688
20116.90 20621.357 15.289324 0.981617 21011.873
22844.40 23515.955 19.402048 0.9507147 19364.902
20804.40 22500.43 17.923786 0.9323978 22053.261
23573.70 21125.384 15.934107 1.1294257 25614.207
30316.90 27220.826 24.617908 1.0715745 22123.8
29443.60 26970.636 24.22538 1.0937036 29831.087
28950.60 29271.702 27.477556 0.9754555 26114.123
31625.50 30621.013 29.365625 1.0248594 29888.963
33523.20 33613.49 33.598052 0.9818457 29811.688
31135.70 31957.008 31.183989 0.9837391 33289.043
25869.30 27032.787 24.105825 0.9903701 32316.405
23488.20 23646.763 19.234891 1.0202558 28039.249
19456.30 20680.052 14.969848 0.9663942 23230.946
18228.20 19513.275 13.281874 0.9445307 19675.061
15062.20 16907.933 9.5415045 0.916888 18206.518
16596.60 15191.485 7.0761481 1.1156435 19107.03
19340.70 17411.852 10.237551 1.0862043 16286.391
20036.40 18119.149 11.233213 1.0982227 19054.602
23055.00 22404.867 17.338768 0.9954435 17685.381
21723.50 21470.483 15.979354 1.0199801 22979.608
22448.70 22555.962 17.506996 0.9868459 21096.391
21527.20 22037.342 16.741208 0.9811686 22206.403
25935.80 25264.107 21.326318 1.0038853 21841.704
24996.50 24675.712 20.455408 1.0175482 25797.611
28251.40 28219.71 25.488338 0.9793542 23866.234
25267.00 27084.82 23.830886 0.9401845 26678.458
26163.80 28216.566 25.413401 0.9207547 24855.598
29626.90 26932.707 23.543273 1.1098185 31507.981
31674.90 28668.333 25.988765 1.0931714 29279.994
29747.10 27445.893 24.205544 1.0928574 31512.757
28648.60 28487.046 25.658123 0.9992602 27344.932
29669.90 28959.975 26.296992 1.0216721 29082.391
27107.70 27808.117 24.614149 0.9823553 28604.983
29511.80 29576.374 27.10472 0.9873813 27308.603
32461.70 31725.363 30.13556 1.0110967 29718.497
28842.30 29107.129 26.352702 1.0076043 32312.75
31511.10 31495.556 29.726625 0.9872429 28532
33353.60 34592.741 34.108096 0.9491387 29639.583
32973.40 35546.569 35.421798 0.9233134 31882.835
34267.00 31927.906 30.202405 1.0961764 39489.552
36595.90 33137.403 31.886878 1.0973498 34935.69
45254.20 39567.567 41.025999 1.1118379 36249.304
40849.50 40595.654 42.43589 1.0018698 39579.291
41105.90 40324.269 41.987636 1.0208181 41518.801
39984.70 40627.656 42.361012 0.9830342 39654.007
39756.10 40354.882 41.910882 0.9865531 40156.814
41175.10 40650.257 42.272923 1.0117738 40845.064
39102.50 39228.702 40.182032 1.003566 41001.969
40044.10 40272.654 41.615788 0.9898857 38767.925
42952.50 44150.17 47.094882 0.9579957 38263.835
40118.50 43617.451 46.266693 0.9219952 40807.929
42380.70 39780.059 40.719382 1.0846823 47863.138
38171.00 35910.217 35.133645 1.0845151 43697.325
42187.30 37497.131 37.350164 1.1167798 39965.404
36157.40 36412.763 35.747934 0.9985549 37604.661
40619.40 39044.013 39.455277 1.0281065 37207.299
37307.30 38204.229 38.199395 0.9806043 38420.384
42051.40 41645.208 43.059832 0.995211 37728.187
44243.80 43272.876 45.323242 1.0157532 42179.098
40454.00 40982.494 41.986986 0.997423 43472.673
43050.60 42939.355 44.722138 0.9946269 40609.546
44754.70 45882.745 48.862516 0.964496 41178.561
40792.00 44620.525 46.989801 0.9190855 42348.722
40947.80 39296.734 39.318327 1.06876 48450.061
41577.10 38560.309 38.210276 1.0821718 42660.543
43987.10 39211.126 39.085308 1.1186538 43106.047
35304.40 36225.917 34.765489 0.9896013 39193.492
38326.40 37051.128 35.894539 1.0304623 37279.845
37026.00 37608.316 36.639141 0.9820641 36367.693
34258.20 35143.111 33.065576 0.9876015 37464.673
38075.00 36968.617 35.625848 1.0210427 35730.312
33772.90 34562.826 32.138596 0.9898558 36908.881
36580.10 36289.891 34.559582 0.9996163 34409.083
36346.30 37380.343 36.067789 0.9674222 35034.788
33665.60 36805.329 35.194937 0.9174466 34388.881
41294.50 38236.103 37.188344 1.0729497 39373.679
35795.60 34238.746 31.425511 1.0684758 41418.276
39058.90 34771.654 32.141814 1.1203866 38336.457
38352.40 37872.265 36.52473 0.9982129 34441.883
40068.00 38665.678 37.605849 1.0326288 39063.578
37472.80 38279.229 37.000141 0.9808957 38009.107
43341.70 42641.079 43.177636 0.9983598 37841.165
39468.80 39555.792 38.709025 1.0123694 43582.449
42722.50 42363.406 42.664051 0.9968046 39192.847
35333.30 36924.516 34.834351 0.9836779 42389.798
32265.40 34158.15 30.833195 0.9589013 35755.295
28725.40 31953.545 27.640157 0.910553 31366.565
35428.70 32787.765 28.792253 1.0757846 34314.204
33506.50 31684.87 27.175782 1.0643769 35063.696
32837.80 29846.324 24.510836 1.1128644 35529.75
33536.20 32763.654 28.64286 1.007679 29817.452
36372.10 34679.627 31.33867 1.0386646 33862.27
33981.70 34658.61 31.263887 0.9807365 34047.836
32035.30 32669.435 28.377947 0.9917283 34632.977
31148.30 31199.075 26.237192 1.0071461 33102.265
29896.40 30267.816 24.86953 0.9934178 31125.535
34096.50 33685.709 29.716031 0.9943197 29798.246
28866.50 30910.899 25.710124 0.949557 32329.764
27419.00 30296.656 24.796033 0.9084872 28169.422
27310.30 26489.33 19.322335 1.0590693 32619.351
25689.20 24665.822 16.690088 1.055836 28215.198
28286.20 25253.217 17.505268 1.1155656 27468.288
30917.00 29472.172 23.506502 1.0231078 25464.777
29305.20 28500.677 22.085269 1.03477 30636.119
29303.20 29575.717 23.58928 0.9844867 27973.314
31839.00 31544.663 26.367974 0.9982971 29354.47
34495.10 33651.547 29.339726 1.0138338 31796.641
33461.90 33683 29.342748 0.9934245 33459.193
34602.50 34557.057 30.54931 0.9969302 33520.851
32261.10 34111.828 29.869722 0.9481346 32842.905
34248.40 36903.419 33.814488 0.9157894 31017.296
39946.70 37544.039 34.681232 1.0609077 39119.089
38834.70 36959.279 33.796439 1.0539354 39676.965
38278.70 34912.174 30.824137 1.1084241 41268.202
37055.00 35933.115 32.238392 1.0261356 35750.453
34215.00 33713.443 29.021826 1.0273465 37215.869
36070.60 35991.652 32.234503 0.9910944 33219.007
37962.70 37579.68 34.456756 1.0027361 35962.543
37501.40 37129.247 33.764152 1.0124118 38134.485
41390.20 40658.206 38.756591 1.0025968 36918.646
42030.80 41833.201 40.379563 0.9998385 40572.031
40701.20 42692.086 41.548694 0.950087 39701.79
37871.30 41662.116 40.018166 0.9132597 39135.01
42801.20 40647.483 38.511731 1.0579513 44242.117
39950.40 38527.243 35.42823 1.0475927 42880.408
43916.50 39384.216 36.601703 1.1109074 42743.792
44304.20 42336.585 40.766503 1.033726 40451.105
44387.50 43020.783 41.685563 1.0289968 43536.222
45724.20 45448.37 45.093518 0.9966826 42678.973
42820.20 43326.916 41.998883 0.9973507 45617.937
44678.00 43960.111 42.843331 1.0138741 43907.202
43648.70 43640.084 42.325016 1.0017014 44117.223
42344.20 42648.586 40.848333 0.9972354 43675.353
41455.20 43422.169 41.89495 0.9518089 40558.675
36591.10 40825.801 38.126528 0.906921 39693.977
43690.40 41200.35 38.607066 1.0588791 43232.044
42387.30 40635.347 37.744885 1.0459214 43201.632
46683.40 41721.128 39.24187 1.1139046 45184.039
41032.50 40155.646 36.949728 1.0292891 43168.779
39759.70 38986.433 35.226879 1.0255775 41358.05
39852.10 39769.507 36.295082 0.9986956 38892.21
37694.80 38244.337 34.06473 0.9929771 39700.344
37986.40 37648.015 33.164303 1.0120508 38809.482
38523.20 38284.208 34.025652 1.0033961 37745.292
39594.10 39394.193 35.562523 1.0001607 38212.298
41143.90 42378.405 39.774291 0.9589219 37529.593
37501.50 41589 38.58991 0.9049789 38469.938
31165.40 32157.92 25.063701 1.0253892 44078.582
17118.40 19901.548 7.5212383 0.9765976 33660.871
22201.30 19926.145 7.5456293 1.1140072 22176.804
21114.40 20383.979 8.1888078 1.0317311 20517.53
28469.10 26112.667 16.359811 1.0497084 20913.749
29473.90 28756.252 20.112466 1.0084954 26094.944
30306.80 30131.207 22.047686 0.9977726 28574.272
 34073.50 32882.321 25.945808 1.0210722 30516.625
33811.20 33520.543 26.820367 1.0053646 33020.025
42933.30 40830.291 37.223099 1.0193216 33552.756
41955.10 43107.635 40.422825 0.9642739 39188.753
40546.80 44434.021 42.25966 0.907792 39048.084
48406.60 46597.513 45.289568 1.0304026 45605.497
45751.20 46801.787 45.516658 0.9769539 45551.249
38554.40 37343.931 31.942304 1.0835586 52188.232
42060.00 40008.683 35.702936 1.0390232 38561.853
46037.00 43004.88 39.931624 1.0574697 42034.926
45085.00 44334.13 41.77325 1.0116455 43410.496
55835.00 53370.809 54.621324 1.0158338 44277.061
55374.00 54051.141 55.515072 1.0223418 54551.222
53417.00 53349.802 54.434003 1.0038327 54396.914
60295.00 57867.509 60.809218 1.0277656 54436.09
> 0.9642739 55858.766

alpha beta gamma MAE MSE

0.7765113 0.0014284 0.3731756 2047.1813 9316723

season 4
Holt-Winter Multiplicative

data u v s forecast
3879.00 0.886882
4344.00 0.9931981
4871.00 1.1136896
4401.00 4373.75 -38.5 1.0062304
4371.00 4765.5127 -36.51191 0.8934068 3844.855
4028.00 4240.5994 -38.76864 0.983877 4696.8344
4487.00 4076.4473 -39.34799 1.1108983 4679.5354
3993.00 3987.1846 -39.57863 1.0052039 4062.2518
4249.00 4533.8676 -36.86973 0.9028203 3526.8181
4264.00 4378.6914 -37.41638 0.9817108 4424.4927
4698.00 4259.8535 -37.7926 1.1091681 4822.7152
3976.00 4028.6741 -38.68617 1.001272 4244.032
4007.00 4315.1411 -37.18375 0.9083637 3602.2423
3457.00 3729.2586 -39.71909 0.9699409 4199.7171
4625.00 4037.8475 -38.10968 1.1169645 4092.3196
4094.00 4064.3303 -37.81123 1.0025687 4004.8256
4674.00 4838.0835 -34.06129 0.92078 3657.5439
4017.00 4323.5133 -36.28154 0.9611569 4659.6175
4923.00 4374.444 -35.87857 1.1187791 4788.6857
4372.00 4354.6902 -35.80406 1.0028712 4349.7098
3902.00 4260.0135 -36.07609 0.9197431 3976.7438
4093.00 4248.9389 -35.96056 0.9616178 4059.8666
4158.00 3852.9395 -37.62417 1.1102602 4713.3919
4079.00 3998.0858 -36.77966 1.006607 3826.2698
4243.00 4434.1317 -34.5949 0.9277348 3643.3839
3759.00 4043.797 -36.23865 0.9547245 4230.6727
4433.00 3996.8241 -36.28825 1.1100172 4449.4325
4207.00 4119.26 -35.55484 1.0097675 3986.7029
5181.00 5172.2236 -30.5252 0.9436445 3788.5952
4251.00 4641.9177 -32.8345 0.9463484 4908.9053
4874.00 4450.8601 -33.56559 1.1068018 5116.1617
4861.00 4704.9945 -32.23623 1.0147988 4460.4405
5086.00 5192.7581 -29.83351 0.9513446 4409.4226
5593.00 5704.8111 -27.32965 0.9536732 4885.9253
5072.00 4883.3874 -30.99887 1.0921362 6283.8467
4972.00 4886.5517 -30.84101 1.015377 4924.1982
5571.00 5581.125 -27.48914 0.9614204 4619.4539
4631.00 5047.6396 -29.82716 0.9458832 5296.3539
5891.00 5290.6582 -28.56644 1.0967256 5480.1344
5764.00 5562.7977 -27.17699 1.0198495 5343.0067
6175.00 6179.0485 -24.20395 0.9695782 5322.0589
5727.00 6082.1837 -24.53969 0.9449624 5821.7642
5784.00 5489.2111 -27.1662 1.0874713 6643.5735
5785.00 5614.6111 -26.46125 1.0221077 5570.464
6305.00 6251.5297 -23.39602 0.977962 5418.1484
7019.00 7098.2107 -19.37571 0.9544009 5885.3523
6467.00 6257.8318 -23.16927 1.0758455 7698.0296
7450.00 6999.2306 -19.63648 1.0312056 6372.4965
6898.00 7033.1544 -19.389 0.9785689 6825.7778
6844.00 7127.7945 -18.86211 0.9556451 6693.9444
8034.00 7369.0706 -17.66011 1.0789403 7648.1133
6987.00 6933.7718 -19.58986 1.0261444 7580.8159
8073.00 7882.8551 -15.11398 0.9883675 6766.0032
8717.00 8777.1064 -10.91214 0.9637131 7518.7682
7872.00 7699.9549 -15.83884 1.066766 9458.2
8132.00 7858.6824 -15.03223 1.0280018 7885.0127
9420.00 9067.3228 -9.378091 0.9992364 7752.4089
 8989.00 9253.4173 -8.474884 0.9653719 8729.2596
9358.00 8902.1596 -10.05876 1.0634188 9862.1898
10457.00 9820.4785 -5.769066 1.0359207 9141.0953
11009.00 10686.983 -1.738611 1.0058822 9807.2149
10357.00 10716.621 -1.59363 0.9656023 10315.235
12369.00 11379.603 1.4771256 1.0684794 11394.562
11336.00 11063.302 0.0087897 1.0334961 11789.896
13232.00 12580.057 7.0171148 1.0157645 11128.387
11803.00 12323.359 5.7985846 0.9639185 12154.107
11509.00 11199.364 0.5782272 1.0596962 13173.451
12760.00 12031.454 4.4203363 1.0393163 11575.096
12896.00 12514.533 6.6320431 1.0189303 12225.614
11883.00 12380.929 5.9840645 0.9630288 12069.383
11326.00 11154.736 0.2906242 1.0501578 13126.366
12390.00 11710.774 2.8585282 1.0433353 11593.6
12894.00 12395.969 6.0113534 1.0235006 11935.375
11535.00 12094.364 4.5899744 0.9610329 11943.464
14314.00 13209.603 9.7218712 1.0573527 12705.811
12924.50 12616.163 6.9348832 1.0392708 13792.188
15106.00 14172.293 14.093146 1.0326172 12919.748
14400.10 14764.852 16.76602 0.964101 13633.584
14985.40 14339.896 14.724988 1.0546987 15629.383
15326.70 14639.599 16.041764 1.0409193 14918.338
17351.10 16213.059 23.238021 1.0407 15133.667
17512.40 17634.738 29.699701 0.9703308 15653.429
16381.20 16117.603 22.55235 1.0464506 18630.659
15679.60 15359.099 18.943376 1.0366059 16800.599
14446.90 14292.954 13.929581 1.034262 16003.929
14484.70 14757.057 16.009667 0.9727428 13882.41
17136.60 15935.559 21.381117 1.052671 15459.284
18370.60 17236.978 27.295697 1.0428786 16541.059
21149.50 19573.943 37.967831 1.0442065 17855.782
20016.00 20311.756 41.201554 0.9754739 19077.346
21128.60 20148.768 40.258069 1.0518018 21424.969
20365.90 19710 38.044683 1.0408133 21054.704
18217.50 18078.653 30.331023 1.0363495 20621.04
21832.60 21207.695 44.649024 0.987088 17664.841
22104.10 21080.543 43.855195 1.0511033 22353.253
20116.90 19821.583 37.835366 1.0352389 21986.555
22844.40 21443.188 45.153385 1.0425867 20581.297
20804.40 21189.679 43.773374 0.9859543 21210.884
23573.70 22099.504 47.775081 1.0544598 22318.551
30316.90 27323.937 71.694506 1.0512208 22927.726
29443.60 28008.682 74.527186 1.0444462 28562.319
28950.60 29011.409 78.816058 0.9885247 27688.76
31625.50 29744.345 81.838503 1.0563494 30674.473
33523.20 31322.829 88.75395 1.0553137 31353.905
31135.70 30250.546 83.389225 1.0411797 32807.707
25869.30 27313.709 69.433875 0.9796178 29985.845
23488.20 23649.584 52.182476 1.0427603 28926.165
19456.30 19883.082 34.537741 1.0387982 25012.799
18228.20 18169.478 26.460225 1.0330169 20737.82
15062.20 16150.449 17.008773 0.9695079 17825.066
16596.60 15985.104 16.166182 1.041791 16858.784
19340.70 17899.329 24.936415 1.0477742 16622.09
20036.40 18991.66 29.868452 1.0377478 18516.069
23055.00 22472.738 45.815218 0.9816403 18441.521
21723.50 21309.919 40.230563 1.0369763 23459.627
22448.70 21404.53 40.481838 1.0479912 22370.137
21527.20 20936.707 38.133146 1.0356948 22254.515
25935.80 24924.639 56.383711 0.9943162 20589.748
24996.50 24345.809 53.448621 1.0347716 25904.728
28251.40 26254.774 62.022278 1.0540264 25570.206
25267.00 24923.851 55.585991 1.0309782 27256.169
26163.80 25946.879 60.056187 0.9973371 24837.458
29626.90 27910.315 68.851001 1.0405218 26911.238
31674.90 29482.028 75.795176 1.0584046 29490.779
29747.10 29046.844 73.434127 1.0295003 30473.472
28648.60 28833.664 72.109791 0.9965293 29042.735
29669.90 28621.957 70.798375 1.0396811 30077.089
27107.70 26458.296 60.473764 1.051121 30368.543
29511.80 28076.173 67.669948 1.0341537 27301.082
32461.70 31357.411 82.518661 1.0048511 28046.164
28842.30 28757.595 70.124584 1.031779 32687.499
31511.10 29662.382 73.981252 1.0535312 30301.423
33353.60 31560.908 82.411798 1.0390253 30751.971
32973.40 32492.523 86.335656 1.0069911 31796.825
34267.00 33037.739 88.455972 1.0329468 33614.183
36595.90 34294.027 93.852095 1.0564546 34899.479
45254.20 41036.049 124.57084 1.0527418 35729.878
40849.50 40729.293 122.57783 1.0061221 41448.378
41105.90 40085.212 119.03538 1.031337 42197.807
39984.70 38495.359 111.13924 1.052633 42473.961
39756.10 37995.714 108.31703 1.0513628 40642.675
41175.10 40149.646 117.76906 1.0102992 38337.309
39102.50 38560.85 109.88366 1.0276177 41529.273
40044.10 38214.623 107.77614 1.0516093 40706.092
42952.50 40158.554 116.26033 1.0552799 40290.747
40118.50 39864.831 114.36595 1.0094526 40689.614
42380.70 40894.841 118.5968 1.0294926 41083.329
38171.00 37593.3 102.79361 1.0438133 43130.111
42187.30 39350.602 110.43848 1.0588954 39779.931
36157.40 36819.481 98.232811 1.0035512 39834.049
40619.40 38758.451 106.73818 1.0334766 38006.512
37307.30 36599.593 96.269691 1.0385482 40568
42051.40 38883.722 106.37898 1.0637504 38857.081
44243.80 42686.852 123.46031 1.0106331 39128.564
40454.00 40150.993 111.17257 1.0278989 44243.458
43050.60 41125.594 115.16216 1.0403249 41814.2
44754.70 41844.03 117.94966 1.0650001 43869.87
40792.00 40802.171 112.59062 1.0082922 42408.165
40947.80 40132.673 108.97687 1.0262667 42056.24
41577.10 40041.365 108.05143 1.0399009 41864.392
43987.10 40985.658 111.91539 1.0667707 42759.131
35304.40 36685.437 91.528539 0.9984107 41438.364
38326.40 37189.271 93.433652 1.0271938 37742.974
37026.00 36066.16 87.812446 1.0370427 38770.319
34258.20 33223.889 74.273608 1.0591045 38568
38075.00 36806.571 90.484673 1.0061656 33245.243
33772.90 33982.773 77.018846 1.0200158 37900.428
36580.10 34940.03 81.0861 1.0391716 35321.457
36346.30 34511.141 78.729694 1.0578292 37091.021
33665.60 33769.914 74.940979 1.0041749 34803.138
41294.50 38660.095 97.190427 1.0303682 34522.286
35795.60 35630.687 82.743566 1.0317411 40275.469
39058.90 36591.145 86.799161 1.0598968 37778.709
38352.40 37776.717 91.876189 1.0065549 36831.07
40068.00 38607.254 95.289267 1.0319746 39018.595
37472.80 36974.553 87.304858 1.027812 39931
43341.70 39839.982 100.14155 1.0659193 39281.745
39468.80 39411.879 97.700724 1.0054555 40201.926
42722.50 40879.75 104.03178 1.0347931 40772.882
35333.30 36192.288 81.89205 1.0167241 42123.624
32265.40 31919.599 61.771137 1.05407 38665.35
28725.40 29506.902 50.337532 0.9985848 32155.846
35428.70 32951.629 66.021753 1.0434791 30585.627
33506.50 32972.467 65.812975 1.0166106 33569.842
32837.80 31671.206 59.496233 1.0503625 34824.66
33536.20 33074.628 65.706017 1.0018912 31685.798
36372.10 34385.052 71.457399 1.046557 34581.245
33981.70 33709.46 68.005558 1.0147748 35028.853
32035.30 31399.926 57.019824 1.0438819 35478.584
31148.30 31190.455 55.788471 1.0011936 31516.436
29896.40 29302.681 46.807986 1.0409007 32700.976
34096.50 32432.266 61.052361 1.0226346 29783.121
28866.50 28982.85 44.831779 1.0335791 33919.186
27419.00 27837.26 39.331279 0.9977049 29062.33
27310.30 26687.591 33.837349 1.0371218 29016.763
25689.20 25560.414 28.472728 1.0188496 27326.258
28286.20 26878.652 34.432259 1.0376204 26448.137
30917.00 29868.549 48.088372 1.0057493 26851.315
29305.20 28712.442 42.524229 1.0335775 31027.198
29303.20 28759.39 42.54467 1.0188624 29296.985
31839.00 30167.381 48.853891 1.0414474 29885.476
34495.10 33176.515 62.532256 1.0130619 30389.956
33461.90 32612.268 59.63614 1.0319588 34355.13
34602.50 33607.486 63.959121 1.0211736 33288.173
32261.10 31717.398 54.930189 1.0362192 35067.039
34248.40 33247.865 61.748099 1.0167254 32187.335
39946.70 37226 79.84429 1.0408055 34374.149
38834.70 37830.669 82.269303 1.022328 38095.745
38278.70 37207.839 79.0113 1.0346191 39286.113
37055.00 36676.604 76.191576 1.015347 37910.49
34215.00 33939.35 63.191681 1.0337751 38252.514
36070.60 34931.068 67.482056 1.0245423 34761.749
37962.70 36227.064 73.158565 1.037478 36210.167
37501.40 36760.287 75.284357 1.0163824 36857.32
41390.20 39158.107 86.015937 1.0387713 38079.695
42030.80 40534.98 91.980511 1.027201 40207.266
40701.20 39614.455 87.302098 1.0353173 42149.578
37871.30 37931.483 79.12231 1.0125172 40352.168
42801.20 40326.416 89.822818 1.0436322 39484.327
39950.40 39311.121 84.716477 1.0248479 41515.6
43916.50 41587.982 94.845569 1.0397641 40787.191
44304.20 43186.776 101.79476 1.0153904 42204.578
44387.50 42739.675 99.258518 1.04254 45177.346
45724.20 44127.476 105.2124 1.0272865 43903.393
42820.20 42020.585 94.991083 1.0353039 45991.564
44678.00 43482.864 101.30881 1.017992 42763.75
43648.70 42339.245 95.556462 1.0400422 45438.245
42344.20 41553.366 91.483676 1.0255108 43592.698
41455.20 40482.058 86.110844 1.0328807 43115.076
36591.10 37214.722 70.615799 1.0105172 41298.074
43690.40 40710.715 86.443204 1.0471728 38778.323
42387.30 41185.685 88.238443 1.0262991 41837.927
46683.40 44119.381 101.38625 1.0383089 42631.039
41032.50 41598.715 89.27072 1.005327 44685.846
39759.70 38990.471 76.806497 1.0412694 43654.527
39852.10 38895.829 76.014295 1.0259305 40094.713
37694.80 37036.985 67.074031 1.0338889 40464.811
37986.40 37598.005 69.356373 1.0064032 37301.712
38523.20 37180.726 67.10781 1.0401589 39221.871
39594.10 38223.687 71.616868 1.0280648 38213.689
41143.90 39383.179 76.643537 1.036216 39593.09
37501.50 37866.479 69.281286 1.0029525 39712.492
31165.40 32152.817 42.560434 1.0249145 39459.218
17118.40 20921.717 -9.530993 0.982924 33098.934
22201.30 21284.37 -7.81127 1.0376925 21669.543
21114.40 21113.871 -8.562987 1.0023228 21339.378
28469.10 25944.06 13.795099 1.0404908 21631.136
29473.90 28879.266 27.293862 0.9910263 25514.6
30306.80 29123.699 28.297181 1.038323 29996.121
34073.50 32664.101 44.525325 1.0111046 29219.71
33811.20 32554.007 43.810887 1.0400881 34033.023
42933.30 40375.688 79.749556 1.0065826 32305.296
41955.10 40420.017 79.585893 1.0382488 42005.809
40546.80 40210.866 78.251744 1.010513 40949.336
48406.60 44823.266 99.202371 1.0486613 41904.23
45751.20 45306.521 100.97694 1.0072779 45218.176
38554.40 39407.103 73.251325 1.0253667 47144.281
42060.00 41033.912 80.429744 1.0136305 39895.412
46037.00 43135.203 89.767398 1.0526646 43115.018
45085.00 44337.72 94.909005 1.0093378 43539.558
55835.00 51700.511 128.49121 1.0371122 45559.738
55374.00 53860 137.8757 1.0167451 52535.458
53417.00 51638.373 126.97331 1.0487452 56841.653
60295.00 57547.006 153.68823 1.017601 52248.724
> 1.0371122 59842.096

alpha beta gamma MAE MSE

0.7252607 0.0046206 0.2151067 2022.1776 8567384
 Chart Title

29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211 218 225 232 239 246 253 260

seasonality
 Forecast
70000.00

60000.00

50000.00

40000.00 actual
value

30000.00 forecast

20000.00

10000.00

0.00
1 19 37 55 73 91 109 127 145 163 181 199 217 235 253
time
 forecast

MAPE
0.0830137 forecast actual error
Jan-22 55858.766 52487.00 3371.77

Forecast
70000.00

60000.00
50000.00

40000.00 actual
value

30000.00 forecast

20000.00

10000.00

0.00
1 19 37 55 73 91 109127145163181199217235253
time
MAPE
0.0848036
actual
forecast