Años Venta PM3 PM5 W 0.25 W 0.

50
1972 41.6 #N/A #N/A
1973 48 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
1974 51.7 47.1 #N/A 48 48
1975 55.9 51.8666667 #N/A 50.775 49.85
70
1976 51.8 53.1333333 49.8 54.61875 52.875
1977 57 54.9 52.88 52.5046875 52.3375 60
1978 64.4 57.7333333 56.16 55.8761719 54.66875 f(x) = − 1.03011965811966 x
1979 60.8 60.7333333 57.98 62.269043 59.534375 50

1980 56.3 60.5 58.06 61.1672607 60.1671875 40

1981 53.2 56.7666667 58.34 57.5168152 58.2335938
1982 53.3 54.2666667 57.6 54.2792038 55.7167969 30
1983 51.6 52.7 55.04 53.5448009 54.5083984
20
1984 49 51.3 52.68 52.0862002 53.0541992
1985 38.6 46.4 49.14 49.7715501 51.0270996 10
1986 37.3 41.6333333 45.96 41.3928875 44.8135498
0
1987 43.8 39.9 44.06 38.3232219 41.0567749 1970 1975
1988 41.7 40.9333333 42.08 42.4308055 42.4283875
1989 38.3 41.2666667 39.94 41.8827014 42.0641937
1990 36.4 38.8 39.5 39.1956753 40.1820969
1991 38.4 37.7 39.72 37.0989188 38.2910484 70
1992 42.6 39.1333333 39.48 38.0747297 38.3455242
1993 34.8 38.6 38.1 41.4686824 40.4727621
60
1994 28.4 35.2666667 36.12 36.4671706 37.6363811
1995 23.9 29.0333333 33.62 30.4167927 33.0181905
50
1996 27.8 26.7 31.5 25.5291982 28.4590953
1997 42.1 31.2666667 31.4 27.2322995 28.1295476
40
Valor

30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6
 Nombre: Leon Delfino Heredia Estrada
Grupo: 3 l B

Chart Title

f(x) = − 1.03011965811966 x + 2089.22246153846

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Media móvil

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Punto de datos
 1995 2000

Real
Pronóstico

22 23 24 25 26
Año ventas PM3 PM5 W 0.25 W 0.5
1975 6.6 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
1976 8.6 #N/A #N/A 8.6 8.6
1977 9.1 8.1 #N/A 8.975 8.975
1978 9.5 9.06666667 #N/A 9.36875 9.36875
1979 9 9.2 8.56 9.0921875 9.0921875
1980 7.1 8.53333333 8.66 7.59804688 7.59804688
1981 6.8 7.63333333 8.3 6.99951172 6.99951172
1982 6.2 6.7 7.72 6.39987793 6.39987793
1983 7.8 6.93333333 7.38 7.44996948 7.44996948
1984 8.3 7.43333333 7.24 8.08749237 8.08749237
1985 9.3 8.46666667 7.68 8.99687309 8.99687309
1986 8.6 8.73333333 8.04 8.69921827 8.69921827
1987 7.8 8.56666667 8.36 8.02480457 8.02480457
1988 8.1 8.16666667 8.42 8.08120114 8.08120114
1989 7.9 7.93333333 8.34 7.94530029 7.94530029
1990 7.5 7.83333333 7.98 7.61132507 7.61132507
1991 7.4 7.6 7.74 7.45283127 7.45283127
1992 7.7 7.53333333 7.72 7.63820782 7.63820782
1993 7.8 7.63333333 7.66 7.75955195 7.75955195 10
1994 8.4 7.96666667 7.76 8.23988799 8.23988799 8
1995 8.3 8.16666667 7.92 8.284972 8.284972 6
1996 8.4 8.36666667 8.12 8.371243 8.371243

Valor
1997 4
8.8 8.5 8.34 8.69281075 8.69281075
1998 8.1 8.43333333 8.4 8.24820269 8.24820269 2
1999 8.05 8.31666667 8.33 0
1 3 5
 10
f(x) = 0.474868778280543 x
ventas Media móv
9
8 10
7 8
6 6
5

Valor
4
4
2
3
2 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
1
0 Punto de datos
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Media móv
10
Suavización exponencial 8
10 6

Valor
8 4
6 2
Real
Valor

4 Pronóstico 0
2 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
0 Punto de datos
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Punto de datos
 Media móvil

Real
Pronóstico

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Punto de datos

Media móvil

Real
Pronóstico

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Punto de datos
 Año Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño Promedio
1996 6.7 4.6 10 12.7 8.5
1997 6.5 4.6 9.8 13.6 8.625
1998 6.9 5 10.4 14.1 9.1
1999 7 5.5 10.8 15 9.575
2000 7.1 5.7 11.1 14.5 9.6
2001 8 6.2 11.4 14.9 10.125

Año Invierno Primavera Verano Otoño

1996 0.78823529 0.54117647 1.17647059 1.49411765
1997 0.75362319 0.53333333 1.13623188 1.57681159
1998 0.75824176 0.54945055 1.14285714 1.54945055
1999 0.76923077 0.57441253 1.12793734 1.56657963
2000 0.73958333 0.59375 1.15625 1.51041667
2001 0.79012346 0.61234568 1.12592593 1.47160494
indices 0.7665063 0.56741143 1.14427881 1.52816351

Año invierno primavera verano otoño

1996 8.74095882 8.5 8.73912886 8.31062904
1997 8.48003467 8.10699217 8.625 8.625
1998 9.00188296 8.81194801 9.08869402 9.22676137
1999 9.13234503 9.69314281 9.43825917 9.81570359
2000 9.2628071 10.0456207 9.70043304 9.48851347
2001 10.4369657 10.9268155 9.9626069 9.75026556
Año Trimeste Ventas Indice Estacional Ventas Desestacional
invierno 6.7 0.76 8.814 Chart T
12
1996 primavera 4.6 0.567 8.108
verano 10 1.144 8.739 10 f(x) = 0.0892799565217391 x + 8.14
otoño 12.7 1.528 8.31
invierno 6.5 0.76 8.551 8
1997 primavera 4.6 0.567 8.1085
6
verano 9.8 1.144 8.5649
otoño 13.6 1.528 8.8999
4
invierno 6.9 0.76 9.0777
1998 primavera 5 0.567 8.8136 2
verano 10.4 1.144 9.0893
otoño 14.1 1.528 9.2271 0
0 5 10 1
invierno 7 0.76 9.2093
1999 primavera 5.5 0.567 9.695
verano 10.8 1.144 9.4389
otoño 15 1.528 9.8161
invierno 7.1 0.76 9.3408
2000 primavera 5.7 0.567 10.04
verano 11.1 1.144 9.7011
otoño 14.5 1.528 9.4889
invierno 8 0.76 10.52
2001 primavera 6.2 0.567 10.92
verano 11.4 1.144 10
otoño 14.9 1.528 9.7506
 Chart Title

f(x) = 0.0892799565217391 x + 8.14332137681159

5 10 15 20 25 30
 Años l ll lll lV promedio
2011 1,700.00 940 2,630.00 2,500.00 1,942.50
2012 1,800.00 900 2,900.00 2,360.00 1990
2013 1,850.00 1,100.00 2,930.00 2,650.00 2132.5

años l ll lll lV
2011 0.87516088 0.48391248 1.35392535 1.28700129
2012 0.90452261 0.45226131 1.45728643 1.18592965
2013 0.86752638 0.51582649 1.37397421 1.24267292
indices 0.88240329 0.4840001 1.395062 1.23853462

Año l ll lll lV
2011 1926.55674 1942.14838 1885.22087 2018.51443
2012 2039.8836 2272.72683 2078.76066 1905.47762
2013 2096.54704 2272.72683 2100.26508 2139.6253
año trimestes ventas INDICE Ventas desestacionalizadas
l 1,700.00 0.88240329 1926.55 Chart Ti
ll 940 0.4840001 1942.14
2500
2011 lll 2,630.00 1.395062 1885.22 f(x) = 251.608753846154 x
lV 2,500.00 1.23853462 2018.51
l 1,800.00 0.88240329 2039.88 2000
2012 ll 900 0.4840001 2272.72
lll 2,900.00 1.395062 2078.76 1500
lV 2,360.00 1.23853462 1905.47
l 1,850.00 0.88240329 2096.54 1000
2013 ll 1,100.00 0.4840001 2272.72
lll 2,930.00 1.395062 2100.26
500
lV 2,650.00 1.23853462 2139.62

0
0 2 4 6
 Chart Title
f(x) = 251.608753846154 x

2 4 6 8 10 12 14