Lezione 5

Gestione dei Progetti Aerospaziali
2015-2016
Project dynamics and managerial
principles
Agenda
•  Project Principles
•  Key management principles
•  Anticipation
•  Flexibility
© Elena Pellizzoni 2
Problem solving cycles
Iterations
Design input
from other
phases Objectives Alternative Physical or logical Results analysis Solution
identification Experiments
generations modeling and evaluation
(E) E=f(D,A)
(D) (f) (E)
Problem solving cycles
§  Project phases
Internal cycle
Solutions
Internal cycle
Constraints and
opportunities
§  Product components

Components
design
System
design Integration
§  Current and future projects

Consequences of errors in the problem
solving interaction management
•  Change previous solutions decisions (recycle)

•  Development cost and time increase
•  Face the problems in the last phases

•  Development cost and time increase
•  No optimal solutions for the final output

•  Quality reduction of the final output
Boeing Example
« … You have 5’000 engineers designing an airplane. It’s very difficult
for these engineers to coordinate themselves with two-dimensional
pieces of paper, or for a designer who is designing an air-conditioning
duct to walk over to somebody who is in Structures and say:
“Hi, here’s my duct - how does it fit in your structure?”
It is very difficult with two-dimensional pictures.
So we ended up using [physical] mock-ups and, quite honestly, also

using the final assembly line to complete the integration. And it
was very expensive. You end up with an airplane that’s very difficult
to build. The first time that components come together is on the
assembly line. And they don’t fit- So we had a tremendous cost on
the first few airplanes to make sure that all the parts fit together … ».
Chief Engineer, Boeing 777, Boeing
Source: Sabbagh, 1996
Costs of change
Cost and time of

design changes
TOO LATE
Phase where an
unexpected event
Project Life cycle emerges
Source: Verganti, 2000
Critical resource: knowledge
Iterations
Design input
from other
phases Objectives Alternative Physical or logical Results analysis Solution
identification Experiments
generations modeling and evaluation
(E) E=f(D,A)
(D) (f) (E)
Modeling
Relations methods Production
among and
Stakeholders variables consumption Final design
needs environment effects
Knowledge
Uncertainty: GTO Case
Consider the GTO Case (manufacturing of transmission kits for pumping
machines). When a new product has to be realized, sales people are not
able to evaluate during the commercial process all aspects of the new
product (a detailed design would take several weeks, but the customer
will wait just a few days for the commercial offer). For this reason GTO
tries to make a rough evaluation at the beginning just to get to a
reasonable price. Unfortunately, only during the design and
production phase technical problems arise. For example, in these
phases it may emerge that specific heat-treatment cannot be executed
internally, requiring to look for suppliers with potential time and cost
problems. During the production phase the technical solution adopted
may appear to be incapable of reflecting customer’s requirements, with
obvious penalty costs.
Uncertainty
•  Not all the alternatives/opportunities are known from
the beginning
•  New ideas and technology opportunities may raise up
during the development process
•  Some problem solving cycles (e.g. production process) are
concentrated in the late stages of the development process
•  The real effects, both local and systemic, will appear

in the late stages of the development process
•  Compatibility of the components only when they are
integrated
•  Producibility only when the production is started
•  Functionalities, performances, security, customer
satisfaction, only after the product is sold
•  Eco-efficiency only during the product recycling
•  Components reusability only after product use
Uncertainty trend
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
TOO EARLY
Phase where an
unexpected event
Opportunity window
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
TOO EARLY
TOO LATE Phase where an

unexpected event
Agenda
•  Anticipation
•  Flexibility
A possible solution: anticipation
Cost and time of
Uncertainty
design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
emerges
Project Life cycle
Gupta and Wilemon 1990, Rosenthal 1992

Clark and Wheelwright 1993, Hart 1993
Bacon et al. 1994, Brown and Eisenhardt 1995.
ANTICIPATION Khurana and Rosenthal 1998, Thomke and Fujimoto 1998

Cooper, 1990, Cooper and Kleinschmidt 1994 and 1995
de Brentani 1991, Montoya-Wiess and Calantone 1994
Anticipation objective
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
TOO EARLY

unexpected event
ANTICIPATION Source: Verganti, 2000
?
How can we apply the anticipation
principle?
Anticipation knowledge generation
1. Early involvement of project stakeholders
2. Experience
3. Prototyping
4. Methods
17
© Elena Pellizzoni
Project Stakeholders
•  During the product life-cycle

•  During the NPD process
§  Purchases function
§  Top Management
§  Production
§  Marketing
§  Suppliers
§  R&D
§  Resellers
§  Designer
§  Distributors
§  Process engineering
§  Shopping centers
§  Critical components suppliers
§  Customers
§  Designers of related products
§  Maintenance men
§  People working in the recycling
chain
18
© Elena Pellizzoni
Project Team in Killer Loop
Purchasing
Production (planner)
Management of outsourced production
Production
Raw Material Warehouse
Model Maker CORE TEAM
Sales forces manager
PRODUCTION PLANER
AND CONTROLLER
SALES AND MARKETING

DESIGNER MANAGER
R&D AND
PRODUCTION
MANAGER
GRAPHIC
DESIGN
PRODUCT
MANAGER
PRODUCTION MANAGER
ASSISTANT EXTENDED
Start of production TEAM
Quality
Lab
“Partner” suppliers
Source: Seassaro et al., 1998

19
© Elena Pellizzoni
POLITECNICO DI MILANO
Milestone
Green, Yellow or
Red
20
2. Experience
2. Experience
3. Prototyping
4. Methods
Experience
•  Ask who knows
•  Knowledge Management System (KMS)

•  What problems can be connected to the introduction of
lessons learned at the end of each project?
•  What problems can be connected to the use of lessons
learned previously introduced in the KMS?
•  Design Rules: transform the tacit knowledge into

simple rules that can be used by anyone (e.g.
Design for Manufacturing and Design for
Assembly)
3. Prototyping
2. Experience
3. Prototyping
4. Methods
Validative test
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
emerges
Project Life cycle
Explorative test
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
emerges
Project Life cycle
Explorative test
§  To anticipate the experimentation in the concept generation
§  Early prototyping
§  Rapid tooling
§  Virtual prototyping
-  Low costs and time of prototype realization
-  Stimuli for creativity
4. Methods
2. Experience
3. Prototyping
4. Methods
n  Cash Flow Assessment (NPV)
n  Business Plan
n  Project Plan
n  …
Stage-gate design process
•  Basic Principle - Cost and time of late design changes are high ⇒ avoid late changes and anticipate
problem solving
•  Sequential Process: avoid modification of early decisions (late changes are considered as errors)
•  Gate: may be passed only if implications of design choices have been fully anticipated
•  Problem solving based on experience: transfer of knowledge from previous projects
•  Requirements: High Front Loading capabilities - low uncertainty

MARKET EVOLUTION
Concept
freezing
Response time
CONCEPT DESIGN
PRODUCT DESIGN
PROCESS DESIGN
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
?
POLITECNICO DI MILANO
Why the anticipation principle is

not always applied?
31
31
Critics of anticipation
•  It is seldom used because

•  Loss of time
% Project
completion Project with Project without
anticipation anticipation
100%
Time
•  Cost and time for late changes are underestimated

•  Early phases are considered less important because
they do not consume money
•  It is difficult, it is uncertain
Agenda
•  Anticipation
•  Flexibility
When anticipation is not suitable
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
When anticipation is not suitable
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
Phase where an
unexpected event
Iansiti 1993 and 1995, Iansiti and MacCormack 1997,

von Hippel 1994, von Hippel and Tyre 1995,
Ward et al. 1995, Eisenhardt and Tabrizi 1996, Lester 1997,
FLEXIBILITY Thomke 1997 and 1998, Thomke and Reinersten 1998
Flexibility objective
Cost and time of

Uncertainty
design changes
trend
TOO EARLY

unexpected event
FLEXIBILITY
Flexibility
1.  A test based approach
2.  High speed in project iterations
A test based approach
•  Experience is necessary but not sufficient because the
uncertainty is high
•  Design is an iterative process
•  Testing starts in the first phases
•  Experimentation to validate vs Experimentation to explore
A test based approach: Microsoft
Internet Explorer 3.0
Technical Search Input From User Feedback
Specs Architecture Design Architecture Evolution
Feature Design and Coding
Development Integration (“Daily Builds”)

Starts
First System Feature
Integration Freeze
Alpha Public Public
Release Beta 1 Beta 2 Release
Nov 95 Dec Jan 96 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 96
50% of the new features and code for this product were developed after the first Alpha was released
Source: Adattato da Iansiti e MacCormack (1997)
Flexible design process
MARKET EVOLUTION
Concept
freezing
CONCEPT DESIGN
Response time
PRODUCT DESIGN
PROCESS DESIGN
TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION
§  Basic Principle - High Uncertainty ⇒ Capability of developing new knowledge during the project
§  Overlapping between concept design and implementation (creativity and diffuse innovation)
§  Iterations as “engine” of the process (fast, frequent, intense, systemic, involving customers)
§  Learning during process: problem solving based on testing
§  Requirements: High levels of flexibility

Flexibility
1.  A test based approach
2.  High speed in project iterations

§  Teamwork
§  Redundancies
§  Advanced prototyping and integration technologies
§  Use of flexible product technologies and architectures
Sony Walkman
20 new models per year

Sony:
250 models in the ’80s
§  5 generational projects in

10 years (platforms)
§  250 derivative projects in

10 years
§  Incremental projects
(20-30): functional
innovations and
miniaturization
§  Topological (220-230):
aesthetical innovations 44
© Elena Pellizzoni
When to use a flexible approach?
Cost and time
of project
Approach based on
anticipation
Approach based on
flexibility
Uncertainty
level
Planned and structural flexibility
Cost and time of
Uncertainty
design changes
trend
Planned
Anticipation Flexibility
flexibility
Structural
flexibility
Phase where an
unexpected event
ANTICIPATION FLEXIBILITY
§  Planned flexibility is the capability to (1) early and clearly identify the
specific critical areas of a given project, and (2) early and explicitly
plan reaction measures to manage those critical areas
Gestione dei Progetti Aerospaziali
2015-2016
Project dynamics and managerial
principles

Lezione 5

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Lezione 5

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Gestione dei Progetti Aerospaziali

§ Product components

§ Current and future projects

• Change previous solutions decisions (recycle)

• Face the problems in the last phases

• No optimal solutions for the final output

So we ended up using [physical] mock-ups and, quite honestly, also

Cost and time of

Source: Verganti, 2000

• The real effects, both local and systemic, will appear

Cost and time of

Source: Verganti, 2000

Cost and time of

TOO LATE Phase where an

Source: Verganti, 2000

Gupta and Wilemon 1990, Rosenthal 1992

ANTICIPATION Khurana and Rosenthal 1998, Thomke and Fujimoto 1998

Cost and time of

TOO LATE Phase where an

ANTICIPATION Source: Verganti, 2000

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

• During the product life-cycle

Model Maker CORE TEAM

Sales forces manager

SALES AND MARKETING

Source: Seassaro et al., 1998

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

• Ask who knows

• Knowledge Management System (KMS)

• Design Rules: transform the tacit knowledge into

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

Cost and time of

Cost and time of

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

• Problem solving based on experience: transfer of knowledge from previous projects

• Requirements: High Front Loading capabilities - low uncertainty

Why the anticipation principle is

• It is seldom used because

• Cost and time for late changes are underestimated

Cost and time of

Source: Verganti, 2000

Cost and time of

Iansiti 1993 and 1995, Iansiti and MacCormack 1997,

Cost and time of

TOO LATE Phase where an

2. High speed in project iterations

• Design is an iterative process

• Testing starts in the first phases

• Experimentation to validate vs Experimentation to explore

Technical Search Input From User Feedback

Specs Architecture Design Architecture Evolution

Feature Design and Coding

Development Integration (“Daily Builds”)

Source: Adattato da Iansiti e MacCormack (1997)

§ Learning during process: problem solving based on testing

§ Requirements: High levels of flexibility

2. High speed in project iterations

20 new models per year

§ 5 generational projects in

§ 250 derivative projects in

You might also like

§  Product components

§  Current and future projects

•  Change previous solutions decisions (recycle)

•  Face the problems in the last phases

•  No optimal solutions for the final output

•  The real effects, both local and systemic, will appear

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

•  During the product life-cycle

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

•  Ask who knows

•  Knowledge Management System (KMS)

•  Design Rules: transform the tacit knowledge into

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

1. Early involvement of project stakeholders

•  Problem solving based on experience: transfer of knowledge from previous projects

•  Requirements: High Front Loading capabilities - low uncertainty

•  It is seldom used because

•  Cost and time for late changes are underestimated

2.  High speed in project iterations

•  Design is an iterative process

•  Testing starts in the first phases

•  Experimentation to validate vs Experimentation to explore

§  Learning during process: problem solving based on testing

§  Requirements: High levels of flexibility

2.  High speed in project iterations

§  5 generational projects in

§  250 derivative projects in