MEC 403 Manufacturing Systems and

Operations

Semester: Monsoon 2022

Students: BTech (Mechanical) 2019 batch

Credits: 2

Monday and Wednesday 1100 – 1230

Room No. 300,
School of Arts and Science, Ahmedabad University

Course coordinator: Ujjaval Modi

(ujjaval.modi@ahduni.edu.in)
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Course Component
• Mid semester Examination – 20%
• End semester Examination – 30%
• Quiz - 15%
• Assignment – 15%
• Projects - 20%

• Suggest Books
1. Factory Physics: Foundations of Manufacturing Management. Hopp, Wallace J., and Mark
L. Spearman. 3rd ed. Waveland Press Incorporated
2. Production Systems Engineering. Li , Jingshan, and Semyon M. Meerkov. Springer
3. Operations Management. Norman Gaither, Greg Frazier, Publication: Thomson South
western
4. Operations Management: Theory and Problems. Joseph G. Monks, Publication: McGraw-
Hill
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Forecasting
• Estimate demand for products & services > necessary resources to produce
the output. (Sales Forecast)
• Short range forecast (Few days to week)
• Medium range forecast (Few week to month)
• Long range forecast (Few months to year)

• Reasons for forecasting

• New facility planning – five year span to plan, develop & implement
• Production planning – month to month – change the capacity of production system
• Workforce scheduling – week to week – overtime, hiring, layoff.
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Forecasting Example
Forecast Time span Example of thing that Typical units of forecast
horizon must to be forecast
Long range Year New/old production line Money
Factory capacities Gallons, hours, pound
Capacity fund Money
Facility need Space, volume
Medium range Months Product group Units
Departmental capacity Gallons, hours, pound
Workforce Worker, hours
Purchased material Units, pound, gallons
Inventories Units, money
Short range Weeks Specific products Units
Labor skill classes Workers, hour
Machine capacities Units, hours, gallons
Cash in hand Money
Inventories Unit, money
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Forecasting Methods
• Qualitative forecasting method
1. Educated guess
2. Executive committee consensus
3. Delphi method
4. Survey of sales force
5. Survey of customers
6. Historical analogy
7. Market research
• Quantitative forecasting method
1. Linear regression
2. Moving average
3. Weighted moving average
4. Exponential smoothing
5. Exponential smoothing with trend
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Long Range Forecast

• Cycle – data pattern may repeat in several years
• Random fluctuation/noise
• Seasonality – repeat itself after period of time

• Plotting data is often helpful

• Simple linear regression analysis

• Multiple regression analysis
• Ranging time series forecast
• Seasonalized time series forecast
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Short Range Forecast

• Few days to week
• Less effect of cycle, seasonality & trend pattern
• Main effect – random fluctuation

• Evaluated on the basis of 3 characteristics:

• Impulse response
• Noise dampening ability
• Accuracy
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Measures of Forecast accuracy

𝑥 2 𝑦 − 𝑥 𝑥𝑦
• 𝑎=
𝑛 𝑥 2 − ( 𝑥)2
𝑛 𝑥𝑦 − 𝑥 𝑦
• 𝑏=
𝑛 𝑥 2 − ( 𝑥)2
𝑛 𝑥𝑦 − 𝑥 𝑦
• 𝑟=
2 2
[𝑛 𝑥 − ( 𝑥)2 ][𝑛 𝑦 − 𝑦 2]

(𝑌 − 𝑦)2
• 𝑟2 =
(𝑦 − 𝑦)2

𝑦 2 −𝑎 𝑦 −𝑏 𝑥𝑦
• 𝑆𝑦𝑥 =
𝑛 −2
𝑛
𝑖=1 𝐴𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 −𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖
• 𝑀𝐴𝐷 =
𝑛
2
• 𝑀𝑆𝐸 = 𝑆𝑦𝑥
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THANK YOU