Case 2E: Southwestern University Football Games

Background

Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, 30 miles southwest of the
Dallas/ Fort Worth metroplex, enrolls close to 20,000 students. In a typical town-gown relationship, the
school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent
residents. 

A longtime football powerhouse, SWU is a member of the Big Eleven conference and is usually in the top
20 in college football rankings. To bolster its chances of reaching the elusive and long-desired number-
one ranking, in 2014 SWU hired the legendary Bo Pitterno as its head coach. Although the number-one
ranking remained out of reach, attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior
to Pitterno's arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales
bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coach's arrival. Stephenville and SWU
were ready to move to the big time!

The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU
stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each
home game for the past six years. 

One of Pitterno's demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new
stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Pitterno had
wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion.
SWU's president, Dr. Marty Starr, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast
when the existing stadium would "max out." He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average
ticket price of $20 in 2020 and a 5% increase each year in future prices. Dr. Starr also wants to get a
recommendation on if and when a new stadium or expansion should take place by in order to
accommodate increased crowds.

Questions I need help on below!  Please explain answers as I am trying to learn and feel far behind.
Thanks!

OSCM 310 - Process & Steps

1. (Domain I: Business Problem Framing)  What are you trying to prove or determine? Be clear
about what you are doing and why. What are the outcomes or decisions to be made?  The
 attendance is steadily increasing each year and is posing a capacity problem. Capacity max will
be reached by 2021 there has also been a 10% in sales and history in showing attendance is
growing. The outcome of this problem is to examine revenue and ticket sales being that there
will be a 5% increase and further solutions can be carried out from there.

1. (Domain II: Analytics Problem Framing)  Express the business problem in terms of an analytics
problem. That is, what variables are important and how will you measure?  What about the data
or variables will help you answer the business problem. What relationships or comparisons are
you making?  Variables important in this sequence is attendance, number of games, ticket price.

1. (Domain III: Data)  Describe  data (if given) or how you would get it (if not). Indicate what
variables are present, how many observations, how data was/will be collected, what
measurements and units are used, etc.

1. (Domain IV: Methodology (Approach) Selection) What analytical method (choose from one of 5
we studied) is appropriate for data and why? Explain why this approach is appropriate, and how
you will implement this approach.

1. (Domain V: Model Building) What are the results of the analysis? What are the  findings for the
analytics problem? Refer back to variables and measures from question 2. Report all evidence,
output, and summary measures here, that is, the complete results of the analysis. ATTACH
STATISTICAL OUTPUT, EXCEL FILES or TABLES, or OTHER EVIDENCE WITH ASSIGNMENT.

SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS FOR THIS CASE ONLY:  

 1. Show a graph of the data.

2. Develop  two  models to analyze the case. Specify the  exact method  used to develop each model.

3. Select the "best" model and interpret the results.

4. Use the best model to provide forecasts for the next four years.

1. (Domain VI: Solution Deployment) What do the results imply (about the hypothesis or what you
are trying to prove)? How can this be interpreted in terms of the business problem? What is the
decision or recommendation based on these results?

SPECIAL INSTRUCTIONS FOR THIS CASE ONLY:  

1. Comment on high and low games for attendance. Interpret these highs and lows in the context
of this particular application and indicate if you believe these figures make sense.

2. How accurate you feel the estimates will be? On what are you basing this conclusion? 

3. Use forecasted attendance and planned ticket price increases to forecast revenues from the
stadium for the next four years. What are the recommendations to the school based on this
analysis?

1. (Domain VII: Model Lifecycle)  Briefly discuss how you could track model quality, evaluate the
business benefit, and/or how the model may need to be recalibrated and maintained over time.
Can you foresee any misuse of the model or any possible outcomes or unintended
consequences that are ethically questionable?