SI-5101 Statistics - Probability (2022)

FAKULTAS TEKNIK SIPIL DAN LINGKUNGAN
SI-5101
Engineering Analysis
Foundation of Fact-based Decision
Making:
Statistics and Probability
BIEMO W. SOEMARDI
b.soemardi@itb.ac.id
AUGUST 2022
1
• What is quantitative
analysis and what is
it for?
• 10 minutes, send
your answer via
MsTeam
Quiz #1
SI-5101 ANALISIS REKAYASA – Ir. Biemo W. Soemardi Ph.D 8/23/2022 2
01 Introduction
Outline
Foundation of Fact- Review:
based Decision Making: 02 Statistic
Statistics and
Probability Review:
03 Probabilistic
3
01
Introduction
23/08/2022 SI-5101 ANALISIS REKAYASA – Ir. Biemo W. Soemardi Ph.D 4
Review:
Statistics & Probability
• Fact-based Decision-making is the process of

reaching a conclusion based on consideration
of things that are known to be true.
• https://peterjamesthomas.com/2018/08/13/fact-based-decision-making/
*) Oxford Dictionaries:
- Fact (noun): A thing that is know of proved to be true
- Decision (noun): A conclusion or resolution reached after consideration

• Facts and statistics collected and
Data analysed for specific need(s) or
purpose(s)
 Measurable
 Collectable and Storable
 Can be analysed and manipulated
 Can be visualized
https://gking.harvard.edu/publications/preface-big-data-not-about-data
Categorical; Non-rank ordered
Nominal e.g., gender, marital status
Categorical; Rating, Rank-ordered

Ordinal
e.g., football ranking
QUANTITATIVE
Equal interval
Interval e.g., temp (oF), IQ, Year
Data DATA Ratio
Discrete
Like Interval, but with zero
e.g., height, weight
QUALITATIVE
Continuous

Types of data
on the basis of measurement
https://microbenotes.com/nominal-ordinal-interval-and-ratio-
data/#:~:text=%20Nominal%20Data%20%201%20Nominal%20data%20is,codes%20or%20names%20that%20are%20used...%20More%20
Value of Data
 Data are a set of values of qualitative or quantitative
variable about one or more persons or objects, while
a datum (singular of data) is a single value of a single variable.
 Data are collected and analyzed; data only becomes
information suitable for making decisions once it has been
analyzed in some fashion.
 Data Quality is the overall utility of dataset(s) as a function
of its ability to be easily process, analyzed for other uses.
accuracy, precision, validity, reliability, consistency, completeness,

timeliness, relevance, …
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/
commons/6/6d/Data_types_-_en.svg

02
Review
Statistic
Statistics - Basic
o Statistics is the discipline that concerns the
collection, organization, analysis, interpretation
and presentation of data.
o Quality of Data depends on how it is collected
• Population
• Sample
• Sampling
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/Iris_Pairs_Plot.png

Statistics – Sampling Technique
Sampling is a technique of selecting individual members or a subset
of the population to make statistical inferences from them and
estimate characteristics of the whole population.
Sampling
Method
Non-
Probabilistic
Probabilistic
Simple Stratified Self- Purposive /

Systematic Cluster Quota Snowball Convenience
Random Random selection Judgemental

Types of
Statistics –  Measure of Central Tendency
Descriptive • Median
Statistics • Mean 𝛴𝑥
𝑥ҧ =
• Mode 𝑛
o Statistics that makes
inference or prediction
about the population  Measure of Variability
based on sample of • Range σ 𝑥෤ − 𝑥𝑖
data. 𝑠=
• Inter-quartile/quintile range 𝑛−1
o It allows to infer data • Variance
parameters based on
• Standard deviation
statistical model single
sample data
Types of To examine the
Statistics – relationships between
variables within a sample
Inferential and then make
Statistics generalizations or
predictions about how
those variables will relate
 It focuses mainly on the to a larger population.
characteristic of the
population
 Enable one to infer
trends about a larger Method of analysis in inferential statistics:
population based on a Linear Regression, Logistic Regression analyses,
study of a sample taken ANOVA, Correlation Analysis and Structural Equation
from. Modeling
Types of
Statistics –
Inferential  Measure of goodness of the relationships between
Statistics variables within a sample
• To determine whether one can generalize the result to a

larger population. Can be expressed in terms of a level of
significance.
• A range of values for an unknown parameter of the
population is measured in confidence interval and is
expressed in terms of an interval and the degree of
confidence that the parameter is within the interval.
Method of analysis in inferential statistics:

Chi-Square, Student t-Test, F-Test
Regression
Analysis
 Regression allows analysis the relationship between two continuous
(dependent and independent) variables - bivariate
 R square (R2) or coefficient of determination is used to measure the
strength of the relationship between the two variables.
R2 Strength of Relationship
R2 < 0.20 Weak
0.20 < R2 < 0.40 Moderate
0.40 < R2 < 0.65 Strong
R2 > 0.65 Very strong
 r = multiple correlation coefficient (0 < r < 1)

Y
Regression
Analysis
Pearson’s Correlation Coefficients
Pearson’s r or the bivariate correlation is a
statistic that measures the strength and
direction of linear correlation between two
variables X and Y.
X
A correlation of -1.0 shows a perfect negative
correlation, while a correlation of 1.0 shows a
perfect positive correlation. A correlation of 0.0
shows no linear relationship between the
movement of the two variables.
Follows normal distribution

https://towardsdatascience.com/clearly-explained-pearson-v-s-spearman-
correlation-coefficient-ada2f473b8

Y Regression
Analysis
Pearson’s Correlation Coefficients
A measure of the extent to which paired scores
occupy the same or opposite positions within
their own distributions
Data (both X and Y) are ordinal and measured at

the Interval/Ratio level
X Average
City Population
 XY −  X Y
Jakarta 8,821,000
Income
50,000,000
r= N Bandung 2,395,000 31,250,000



( X )2



( Y ) 
2 Yogyakarta
Semarang
388,500
1,556,000
25,165,000
31,250,000
 X −   Y −
2 2
N N  Surabaya 2,765,000 39,600,000

   Tangerang 925,000 30,210,000

Average
Regression
City Population
Income
Jakarta 8,821,000 50,000,000
Bandung
Yogyakarta
2,395,000
388,500
31,250,000
25,165,000
Analysis
Semarang 1,556,000 31,250,000
Surabaya 2,765,000 39,600,000 Pearson’s Correlation Coefficients
Tangerang 925,000 30,210,000
Is there any correlation between population size

and average income for cities in Jawa island?
 XY −  X Y
r= N

 ( X )   
2
( Y )2


  X − −
2 2
N   Y N 
2 2   
X Y X Y XY
8,82 50,00 77,81 2.500,00 441,05
2,40 31,25 5,74 976,56 74,84 r = 0,18
0,39 25,17 0,15 633,28 9,78
1,56 31,25 2,42 976,56 48,63
2,77 39,60 7,65 1.568,16 109,49
0,93 30,21 0,86 912,64 27,94
16,85 207,48 94,62 7.567,21 711,73
Regression
Analysis
Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients
Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient or
Spearman’s ρ, rs is a nonparametric measure of
rank correlation (statistical dependence between
the rankings of two variables).
It assesses how well the relationship between two

variables can be described using a monotonic
function.
X and Y are measured at the interval/ratio level,

but are not normally distributed (e.g. are severely
skewed), and do not follow a bivariate normal
distribution
Rank
Regression
Income
Hours of Rank
Works Income
Hours of
Works
D D
2
Analysis
2.750.000 40 5 8 -3 9
4.525.000 45 10 12 -2 4 Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficients
1.757.500 30 2 3 -1 1
2.115.000 43 3 11 -8 64
3.557.500 36 7 6 1 1
Hours of
2.125.700 35 4 5 -1 1 Income
Works
4.212.550 38 8 7 1 1
2.750.000 40
5.121.500 42 11 10 1 1
4.525.000 45
3.520.150 28 6 1 5 25
1.757.500 30
5.215.250 29 12 2 10 100
2.115.000 43
4.254.550 41 9 9 0 0
3.557.500 36
1.151.500 32 1 4 -3 9 2.125.700 35
216 4.212.550 38
5.121.500 42
3.520.150 28
5.215.250 29
4.254.550 41
1.151.500 32
rs = 0,245
Multiple Regression
Analysis
Technique used for predicting the unknown value of a (dependent) variable from
the known value of two or more (independent) variables (called the predictors)
Multiple regression analysis helps us to predict the value of Y for given values of
X1, X2, …, Xk.
Y = b0 + b1 X1 + b2 X2 + …………………… + bk Xk
Y = productivity
X1 = location
X2 = size of crew
X3 = timing
X4 = management

Measure of goodness
Chi Squared The Chi Squared test measures how expectations

Test compare to actual observed data (model results)
The data used in must be random, raw, mutually
exclusive, drawn from independent variables, and
from a large enough sample.
Grade A B C D E Total
Observed Frequency 35 30 28 6 1 100
Expected Frequency 36 27 28 7 2 100
Expected
Observed
Male Female Total Male Female Total
Pass 17 20 37 Pass 18,5 18,5 37
Fail 8 5 13 Fail 6,5 6,5 13
Total 25 25 50 Total 25 25 50

Measure of goodness
Chi Squared
Test
k, degree of freedom = category -1

ANOVA • The ANOVA test determines whether the mean differences
between these (three or more) independent groups are
statistically significant.
Can be used to determine

whether averages of
three (or more) samples
are coming from the
same population
https://howecoresearch.blogspot.com/2019/01/using-analysis-of-variance-anova-in.html
ANOVA
• The averages of the groups are
not significantly different
• The averages of the groups are

significantly different
https://howecoresearch.blogspot.com/2019/01/using-analysis-of-variance-anova-in.html
ANOVA Data Point Regression Value
Sum Squared Regression Error
2
𝑠𝑠𝑅 = ෍ 𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦𝑅

ANOVA
One-way ANOVA
Have one independent
variable
Two-way ANOVA
Have two independent
variables

ANOVA
One-way ANOVA
Have one independent
variable
Two-way ANOVA
Have two independent
variables

Paired Test The Student t-test determines if there is a
significant different between the mean of two
Student t-Test groups
mean-1 mean-2
𝑥ҧ − 𝜇0
𝑡=
𝑠Τ 𝑛
Standard deviation of the
sample size
• The data used in must be continuous or ordinal,
different between the pair
randomly selected from population
• Population is infinite, data distribution is normal (bell
https://serc.carleton.edu/introgeo/teachingwdata/Ttest.html shape), and variance is unknown but homogenous.
Measure of goodness
Student t-Test
mean
𝑥ҧ − 𝜇0
𝑡=
var 12 var 22
+
𝑛1 𝑛2
variance sample size
For different sample size

Question
• Note on
Fundamental
Statistics

03
Review
Probabilistic
Waiting for ..
Introduction
Possibility degree of preciseness of certainty
(kemungkinan)
Probability degree of certainty/uncertainty

(kebolehjadian)
Statement Meaning
• There's some uncertainty or doubt to the train’s time of arrival.
"There's a possibility that the • There is doubt that it will arrive on time and a chance it will
w v .“ arrive late.
• Both events can occur. In fact, the train could arrive early.
"There's a high probability that

Probability goes further in identifying the degree of uncertainty.
the train will arrive late."

What is
Probability
John Tsitsiklis, and Patrick Jaillet. RES.6-012 Introduction to Probability. Spring 2018. Massachusetts
Institute of Technology: MIT OpenCourseWare, https://ocw.mit.edu.

Theory
Random Variables Keys to Valid Probability Applications
Future Event, as happened in prior experiences, will be by chances, random
o In probability and statistics, a random variable or stochastic variable

is a variable whose value is subject to variations due to chance
o X is a random variable if it represents a random draw from some
population
o X is a discrete random variable if can take on only selected values
o X is a continuous random variable if can take on any value in a real
interval
o Each random variable is associated with a probability distribution
Fundamental Concept
Probability: • Objective Probability relative frequency of occurrence

• Subjective Probability (group) opinion
𝒙𝒊
• 0 < p(event) < 1
𝒑 𝒙 =
Probability Rules: 𝜮𝒙𝒊
• Sum of all p(event) = 1
Events: • Mutually Exclusive → only one of the events can occur on any one trial
• Collective Exhaustive → if outcomes include all possible outcome

Estimator
Estimating future events

Theory Random Variables
Estimators as Random Variables

Each sample statistics (e.g. the mean, variance, etc.) is a random variable.
• Each time we randomly

take sample, we’ll get
different sample statistics
• If we take lots and lots of
samples, we’ll get a
distribution of sample
statistics

Expected Value of X – E(X)
 The expected value is really just a probability weighted average
of X
 E(X) is the mean of the distribution of X, denoted by μx
 Let f(xi) be the probability that X=Xi, then
n
 X = E ( X ) =  xi f ( xi )
i =1

Variance of X – Var(X)
 The variance of X is a measure of the dispersion of the distribution
 Var(X) is the expected value of the squared deviations from the mean,
 = Var ( X ) = E ( X −  X )
2
X  2

 The square root of Var(X) is the standard deviation of X
 Var(X) can alternatively be written in terms of a weighted sum of squared
deviations, because
 
E ( X −  X ) =  ( xi −  X ) f ( xi )
2 2

Covariance of X – Cov(X)
 Covariance between X and Y is a measure of the association between two
random variables, X & Y
➢ If positive, then both move up or down together
➢ If negative, then if X is high, Y is low, vice versa
 XY = Cov( X , Y ) = E(X −  X )(Y − Y )
 Covariance is dependent upon the units of X & Y
 aXbY = Cov(aX , bY ) = abCov( X , Y ) = E ab(X −  X )(Y − Y )
 Correlation, Corr(X,Y), scales covariance by the standard deviations of X & Y
so that it lies between 1 & –1  XY Cov( X , Y )
 XY = =
 X Y Var ( X )Var (Y )
1
2
Properties of Expectations
• E(a) = a Var(a)=0
• E(mX) = mX i.e. E[E(X)]=E(X)
• E(aX+b) = aE(X)+b
• E(X+Y) = E(X)+E(Y)
• E(X-Y) = E(X)-E(Y)
• E(X- mX) = 0 or E(X-E(X)) = 0
• E((aX)2) = a2E(X2)
Properties of Variances
• Var(X) = E(X2) – x2
• Var(aX+b) = a2Var(X)
• Var(X+Y) = Var(X) +Var(Y) +2Cov(X,Y)
• Var(X-Y) = Var(X) +Var(Y) - 2Cov(X,Y)
• Cov(X,Y) = E(XY) - xy
• If (and only if) X,Y independent, then
Var(X+Y) = Var(X)+Var(Y), E(XY)=E(X)E(Y)

Property of
Probability
Distributions

Normal distribution: N(m,s)
Any random variable can be
“standardized” by subtracting the
mean, m, and dividing by the
standard deviation, s, so E(Z)=0,
Var(Z)=1
Thus, the standard normal, N(0,1),
has pdf
2
 x− 
1 −1 / 2  

Y= e  
 2 π ~ 3.14159
e ~ 2.71828

For a linear model Y = a + bX
If X~N(m,s2), then aX+b ~ N(am+b, a2s2)

A linear combination of independent, identically distributed (iid)
normal random variables will also be normally distributed
If Y1,Y2, … Yn are iid and ~N(m,s2), then
 2 
 , n
Y ~ N 

 

Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)
• For a pdf, f(x), where f(x) is P(X = x),

the cumulative distribution function
(cdf), F(x), is P(X  x); P(X > x) =
1 – F(x) = P(X< – x)
• For the standard normal, f(z), the cdf

is F(z)= P(Z<z), so
• P(|Z|> a) = 2P(Z > a) = 2[1-F(a)]
• P(a  Z  b) = F(b) – F(a)

Student t-distribution:
If a random variable, T has a
t-distribution with n degrees of freedom
(df), then it is denoted as T~tn
E(T)=0 (for n>1) and
Var(T)=n/(n-2) (for n>2)
T is a function of Z~N(0,1) and X~2n as
follows:
Z x−
t= t =
X s
n n
υ = k – df = n-1
Student t-distribution:

F-distribution:
Fisher–Snedecor distribution
If a random variable, F, has an
F-distribution with (df1,df2) df,
then it is denoted as F~Fdf1,df2
F is a function of X1~2df1 and
X2~2df2 as follows:
 X1 
 df 
F= 1
 X2 
 df 
 2

F-distribution:

Beta distribution:
Power function α, β > 1

Beta distribution:
Three point estimaation (PERT)

Beta distribution:

Binomial distribution:
Discrete Probability Mass Function
n-k
μx = mean
σx = standard deviation
n = number of trial
k = number of trial, success
p = probability [0,1] 1= success
q = probability [0,1] 0 = failure = (1-p)
𝑘
𝑛 ⅈ 𝑛−1
𝑃 𝑥≤𝑘 =෎ 𝑝 1−𝑝
𝑝
𝑗=0
Binomial coefficient
𝑛 𝑛!
=
𝑘 𝑘! 𝑛 − 𝑘 !

Probability of p(X=x) with n trials, and
probability of success p
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥
𝑝 1−𝑝
𝑥
What is the probability of X=5 from 6 trials

and probability of success of 90%?
P(X=5) = 0.354 or 35%

Exponential distribution:
1
Mean, 𝜇=
𝜆
1
Variance, 𝑣𝑎𝑟 = 2
𝜆
λ = rate parameter

Exponential distribution:
𝜆𝑥
𝐹 𝑥; 𝜆 = ቊ1 − ⅇ 𝑥≥0
0 𝑥<0

Poisson distribution:
Probability Mass Function
𝜆𝑥 ⅇ−𝜆
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
λ = E[X] = Var (X)
λ = rate parameter
e = Euler number, 2.71828

Poisson distribution:

Review
Probability

Review Probability
Combination of Events
• Arithmetic of probability
– Addition of MEE
p(A or B) = p(A) + p(B) p(A) p(B)
– Addition of not MEE

p(A or B) = p(A) + p(B) - p(A and B)
p(A) p(B)

Review Probability
Occurrence of Events
• Statistically Independent Events
The occurrence of A (or B) does NOT have

p(A) any effect on the probability of occurrence of p(B)
B (or A)
• Statistically Dependent Events
p(A) The occurrence of A (or B) p(B)

influences the probability of
occurrence of B (or A)

Review Probability
Types of Event Probability
Marginal Probability p(A) p(B)
statistically
independence
Joint Probability p(A) p(B) p(AB) = p(A) x p(B)
statistically
Conditional Probability p(A) p(B) p(A|B) = p(AB)/p(B)
dependence

Conditional Probability Example
• Diagnosis using a X-ray test;
• Sample Space = all item tested p(A) p(B)
Event A: Object has flaw; Event B: Test is positive
• Interpretation:
– Probability object has flaw and positive test (correct!)
p(A and B)
p( A  B )
– Probability object has flaw BUT negative test (false negative)
p( A  B )
– Probability object has no flaw BUT positive test (false positive)
p( A  B )
– Probability object has flaw given a positive test
p( A B )
– Probability object has flaw given a negative test

p( A B )
Conditional Probability Example
• If only data we have is B or not B, what can we say about A being true?
• Not as simple as positive = flaw, negative = sound
• Test is not Foolproof!
• Probability depends on union of A and B
p( A  B ) p( A  B') p( A  B')
p(A) p(B)
p( A B ) = p( A B') = =
p( B ) p(B') 1 − p( B )
• Must Examine independence p(A and B)

• Does p(A) depend on p(B)?
• Does p(B) depend on p(A)?
• Events are dependent

Conditional Probability
Bayes’ Theorem Thomas Bayes
1702-1761
Prior – Probabilities
p(c)
Application of Bayes’ Posterior Probabilities

Theorem p(c|x)
DATA
p(x|c)

Metal Decking Manufacturing Supplies
• A metal decking company that receives part supplies from two suppliers, A1 and A2
• Supplier A1 supplies 65% and A2 35%
• Quality of Supplier A1 will be 98% good, while supplier A2 will only reach 95%
Percentage Good Parts Percentage Bad Parts
Supplier A1 98 2
Supplier A2 95 5
• Let G denote that a part is good and B denote the event that a part is bad.
Then, we have the following conditional probabilities:
P(G | A1 ) = 0.98 and P(B | A2 ) = 0.02
P(G | A2 ) = 0.95 and P(B | A2 ) = 0.05

Tree Diagram for Two-Supplier Example
Step 1 Step 2 Experimental
Supplier Condition Outcome
(A1, G)
G
A1 B
(A1, B)
A2 G (A2, G)
B
(A2, B)

Probability Tree for Two Metal Decking
Supplier Example
Step 1 Step 2 Probability of Outcome
Supplier Condition
P(G | A1) P ( A1  G ) = P ( A1 ) P (G | A1 )
P(A1)
P(B | A2)
P ( A1  B ) = P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1 )
P(B | A2)
P(A2) P ( A2  G ) = P ( A2 ) P (G | A2 )
P(B | A2)
P ( A2  B ) = P ( A2 ) P (G | A2 )

Metal Decking Supplies
• Each of the experimental outcomes is the intersection of 2 events. For example,
the probability of selecting a part from supplier A1 that is good is given by:
P( A1 , G ) = P( A1  G ) = P( A1 ) P(G | A1 ) (1)
• We know from the law of conditional probability that:

P( A1  B)
P( A1 | B) =
P( B) (2)
• From the probability tree:
P( A1  B) = P( A1 ) P( B | A1 ) (3)

Metal Decking Supplies Example
• The probability of selecting a bad part is found by adding together the probability
of selecting a bad part from supplier A1 and the probability of selecting bad part
from supplier A2, is
P ( B ) = P ( A1  B ) + P ( A2  B ) (4)
P ( B ) = P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B / A2 )
P ( Ai ) P ( B | Ai )
P ( Ai | B ) =
P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2 ) + ... + P ( An ) P ( B | An )

Conditional Probability for Metal Decking
Example
P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1 )
P ( A1 | B ) =
P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2 )
(.65)(.02) .0130
= = = .4262
(.65)(.02) + (.35)(.05) .0305
P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2 )
P ( A2 | B ) =
P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2 )
(.35)(.05) .0175
= = = .5738
(.65)(.02) + (.35)(.05) .0305

Probability Tree for Two Supplier Example
Step 1 Step 2 Probability of Outcome
Supplier Condition
P(G | A1) P( A1  G ) = P( A1 ) P(G | A1 ) = .6370
.98
P(A1)
P(B | A2)
.65 .02 P( A1  B) = P( A1 ) P( B | A1 ) = .0130
P(B | A2)
P(A2) P( A2  G ) = P( A2 ) P(G | A2 ) = .3325
.95
.35
P(B | A2)
P( A2  B) = P( A2 ) P(G | A2 ) = .0175
.05

Metal Decking – Tabular form
P ( Ai ) P ( B | Ai )
P ( Ai | B ) =
P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2 ) + ... + P ( An ) P ( B | An )
Events Prior Conditional Joint Posterior

Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai p(A1) p(B|A1) p( A1  B ) p(A1|B)
0.0130/0.0305
A1 0.65 0.02 0.0130 = 0.4262
0.0175/0.0305
A1 0.35 0.05 0.0175 = 0.5738
1.00 P(B) = 0.0130 + 1.00
0.0175 =
0.0305

Probabilty Problem (1)
• The marketing and bidding department of a construction firm has used
statistics for estimating the bids.
• From the past it had successfully predict that in a year:
• When it the economy is good, the prediction was 85% accurate it won the bids
• When it predicted that the economy is bad, the firm actually won 25% of the
bids.
• This year, before submitting bids, the guy who works for M&B department
believe that there is a XY% of chances that the economy will be good.
• What is the probability that the firm win the bids this year?

Probabilty Problem (2)
A consulting firm submitted a bid for a large consulting contract. The firm’s management
felt it had a 55-45 change of landing the project. However, the agency to which the bid
was submitted subsequently asked for additional information. Experience indicates that
for 75% of successful bids and XY% of unsuccessful bids the agency asked for additional
information.
a. What is the prior probability of the bid being successful (that is, prior to the request
for additional information).
b. What is the conditional probability of a request for additional information given that
the bid will be ultimately successful.
c. Compute the posterior probability that the bid will be successful given a request for
additional information.
d. If the cost of additional information is 15% of expected profit, would you recommend
for paying the additional expenses?
Assignment – 2 (individual)
Additional assignment will be given latter
A. Statistics
• Do the following problems (QAM) - Render ret.al (2018) Quantitative Analysis for
Management, 13th ed :
• 4-11; 4-12; 4-22; 4-23 and 4-24
• For each answer provide comment
B. Probability
For probably problems, XY is the last two digit of your student ID
Submit all works by 10:00AM on Friday 3 September 2021 to b_soemardi@office.itb.ac.id
SI-5101 ANALISIS REKAYASA – Ir. Biemo W. Soemardi Ph.D 81

End Note

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FAKULTAS TEKNIK SIPIL DAN LINGKUNGAN

• Fact-based Decision-making is the process of

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Categorical; Rating, Rank-ordered

Data DATA Ratio

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accuracy, precision, validity, reliability, consistency, completeness,

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Simple Stratified Self- Purposive /

23/08/2022 SI-5101 ANALISIS REKAYASA – Ir. Biemo W. Soemardi Ph.D 12

• To determine whether one can generalize the result to a

Method of analysis in inferential statistics:

 r = multiple correlation coefficient (0 < r < 1)

23/08/2022 SI-5101 ANALISIS REKAYASA – Ir. Biemo W. Soemardi Ph.D 16

Follows normal distribution

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Data (both X and Y) are ordinal and measured at

N N  Surabaya 2,765,000 39,600,000

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Is there any correlation between population size

It assesses how well the relationship between two

X and Y are measured at the interval/ratio level,

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Chi Squared The Chi Squared test measures how expectations

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k, degree of freedom = category -1

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Can be used to determine

• The averages of the groups are

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For different sample size

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Probability degree of certainty/uncertainty

"There's a high probability that

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Future Event, as happened in prior experiences, will be by chances, random

o In probability and statistics, a random variable or stochastic variable

Probability: • Objective Probability relative frequency of occurrence

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Estimators as Random Variables

• Each time we randomly

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23/08/2022 SI-5101 ANALISIS REKAYASA – Ir. Biemo W. Soemardi Ph.D 46

23/08/2022 SI-5101 ANALISIS REKAYASA – Ir. Biemo W. Soemardi Ph.D 47

If X~N(m,s2), then aX+b ~ N(am+b, a2s2)

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• For a pdf, f(x), where f(x) is P(X = x),

• For the standard normal, f(z), the cdf

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Power function α, β > 1

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