Reliability Example

Advances in Maintenance
Engineering ! Suppose 100 components were put to test.
After a given period of time, and under
specified conditions, 10 of these
Reliability Block components have failed.
Diagrams !
!
What is the reliability R?
R = 90% or 0.9

Dr. Chakib KARA-ZAITRI

Objectives Cumulative probability of failure

F; Example
! To define Reliability as a constant. ! Suppose 100 components were put to test. After
! To understand the concept and a given period of time, and under specified
conditions, 10 of these components have failed.
practices of Reliability Block
Diagrams (RBD). ! What is the probability of failure F?
! F = 10% or 0.1

2 6

Agenda Probability Law

The sum of the probability of success (R)
and the probability of failure (F) is equal to
! R 1.
! Series systems R = Probability of success
! Parallel system F = Probability of failure
! Series-Parallel systems
! MooN Systems R+F=1

3 7

Reliability definition

Reliability is the probability (proportion or

percentage) that a component fulfils its
required function for a specified period of
Reliability Block
time and under specified conditions.
Diagrams

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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc 21

 Reliability Block Diagrams Series System: Success Logic
In practice, a system can be represented as a
network in which the system components are R1 R2
connected in:
! Series
! Parallel
Which component(s) need to
! Combination of series and parallel
work for the system to work?
It is very important that the relationship between the system and its network
model be thoroughly understood before considering the analytical techniques
.
that can be used to evaluate the reliability of these networks

9 13

Series System: Success

Success or Failure Logic
Logic
! Success Logic R1 R2
“the combination of components which
must work for the system to work” Only one scenario.
! Failure Logic Component 1 working
and
“the combination of components which
Component 2 working
must fail for the system to fail”
So what is the probability of success
R?

10 14

Series System: Success

Series Systems
Logic
Components are said to be in series if they
all have to work successfully for the R1 R2
system to work successfully.
Only one way.
R1 R2
Component 1 working
and
R1: Reliability of component 1 Component 2 working
R2: Reliability of component 2.

R = R1 ....
11 15

Series System: Success Series System: Success

Logic Logic
R1 R2
! In success logic, the probability
of success is calculated, Only one way.
Component 1 working

!i.e. R and
Component 2 working

R = R1 x ....
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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc 22

 Series System: Success
Series System: Failure Logic
Logic
Scenario 2:
R1 R2 Component 1 failed
and
Only one way. Component 2 working
Component 1 working
and
Component 2 working F1 R2

R = R1 x R2
17 21

Series System: Failure

Series System: Failure Logic
Logic
Scenario 2:
Component 1 failed
and
In failure logic, the Component 2 working

probability of failure F is
calculated F1 R2

Probability of Scenario 2:
P2 = F1 x R2

18 22

Series System: Failure Series System: Failure Logic

Logic
Scenario 3:
Component 1 failed
Scenario 1: and
Component 1 working Component 2 failed
and
Component 2 failed

R1 F2 F1 F2

19 23

Series System: Failure Series System: Failure Logic

Logic
Scenario 3:
Component 1 failed
Scenario 1: and
Component 1 working Component 2 failed
and
Component 2 failed
F1 F2
R1 F2 Probability of scenario 3:
P3 = F1 x F2
Probability of scenario 1 = P1
P1 = R1 x F2

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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc 23

 Series System: Failure
Series System: Example (1)
Logic
R1 R2 Solution:
R = 0.9510 = 0.5987
Probabilities of the 3 scenarios:
P1: R1 and F2 The system reliability decreases very rapidly
P2: F1 and R2 as the number of series components
P3: F1 and F2 increases.
So:
F = P1 + P2 + P3 Or;
F = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (F1 x F2)

25 29

Series System: Failure Logic Series System: Example (2)

F = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (F1 x F2)
So; A system requires 200 identical components
F = R1 x (1 - R2) + (1 - R1) x R2 + (1 - R1) x (1 - R2) in series. If the overall reliability must not be
Or; less than 0.99, what is the minimum
F = R1 - (R1 x R2) + R2 - (R1 x R2) + 1 - R1 - R2 + component reliability ?
(R1 x R2)
So;
F = 1 - (R1 x R2)

Or R = R1 x R2

26 30

Series System: Hint Series System: Example (2)

Solution:
Best to use success logic.
General Formula for n components in series 0.99 = R200
is: R = 0.991/200 = 0.99995 !

R = R1 x R2 x R3 x .... Rn

27 31

Series System: Example (1) Parallel System

Components are said to be in parallel if

only one component has to work
! A system consists of 10 identical successfully for the system to work
components all of which must work successfully.
for the system to work. R1
! What is the system reliability if each
component has reliability 0.95. R2

R1: Reliability of component 1

R2: Reliability of component 2.
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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc 24

 Parallel System Parallel System: Success
Logic
R1 scenario 2:
Component 1 failed
R2 and Component 2 working

F1

Is it best to use success or R2

failure logic ? Probability of scenario 2:

P2 = F1 x R2

33 37

Parallel System: Success Parallel System: Success

Logic Logic
scenario 1: scenario 3:
Component 1 working Component 1 working
and Component 2 failed and Component 2 working

R1 R1

F2 R2

Probability of scenario 3:
P3 = R1 x R2

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Parallel System: Success Parallel System: Success

Logic Logic
scenario 1: scenarios (3) :
Component 1 working P1: R1 and F2
and Component 2 failed P2: F1 and R2
R1
P3: R1 and R2
F2
So:
R = P1 + P2 + P3 Or;
Probability of scenario 1 = P1 F = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (R1 x R2)

P1 = R1 x .....
35 39

Parallel System: Success Parallel System: Success

Logic Logic (7)
scenario 1:
R = (R1 x F2) + (F1 x R2) + (R1 x R2)
Component 1 working
So;
and Component 2 failed
R = R1 x (1 - R2) + (1 - R1) x R2 + (R1 x R2)
R1
Or;
R = R1 - (R1 x R2) + R2 - (R1 x R2) + (R1 x R2)
F2
So;

Probability of scenario 1: R = R1 + R2 - (R1 x R2)

P1 = R1 x F2
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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc 25

 Parallel System: Failure Parallel System: Example (1)
Logic Cont.
It is much easier to use the following
formula:
F1 R1

F2 R2

scenarios ( 1 only) :
R3
F1 and F2
So:
F = F1 x F2
R = 1 - (1 - R1) x (1 - R2) x (1 - R3)
R=1-F

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Parallel System: Failure

Parallel system: Example (2)
Logic
F = F1 x F2 A system is designed to have a reliability
F = (1 - R1) x (1 - R2) of 0.999 using components having an
F = 1 - R1 - R2 + (R1 x R2) individual reliability of 0.7.
But;
R=1-F What is the minimum number of
components required ?
So;
R = R1 + R2 - (R1 x R2)

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Parallel System: Hint Parallel system: Example (2)

Solution:
Best to use failure logic. 0.999 = 1 - (1 - 0.7)n
General Formula for n components in 0.999 -1 = - (0.3)n
parallel is: ln(0.001) = n.{ln(0.3)}
n = 5.74
F = F1 x F2 x F3 x .... Fn Caution:
and R(5 components) = 0.9975
R = 1- F R(6 components) = 0.9993
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Parallel System: Example Parallel system: Example (3)

(1)
Consider 3 components in parallel;
! Suppose a system is made of a number of
R1 components in parallel, and that the single
component reliability is 0.8.
R2
! Evaluate the effect on the overall system
reliability by increasing the number of
R3 components in parallel.
F = F1 x F2 x F3
R = R1 + R2 + R3 - R1.R2 - R1.R3 - R2.R3 +
R1.R2.R3

44 48

Reliability Block Diagrams.doc 26

 Parallel system: Example (3) Series - Parallel; A
Cont.
A
No. Of Components System reliability
1 0.8 1 2

2 0.96
3 0.992
4 0.9984
5 0.99968 RA = R2
6 0.99994
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Increasing the number of Series - Parallel; B

components in parallel
B
1.05

1 3
0.95

0.9 4
0.85

0.8 RB = 1 - (1 - R)2 = 2R - R2
0.75
1 2 3 4 5 6

N u m b er o f co m p o n en ts in p arallel

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Series - Parallel Example Series - Parallel; ABC

A B
3
1 2
4 C

5 RAB = R2 (2R - R2)

RAB = 2R3 - R4
Component Reliability = 0.8 RS = 1 - {1- R}{1 - (2R3 - R4)}
RS = 0.92288
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Partially redundant systems

Series - Parallel Example
MooN Configuration
B
A
3
1 2
4
MooN: “M out of N”
Or;
5 At least M components out of N components
must work successfully for the system to
work successfully”
Component Reliability = 0.8

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Reliability Block Diagrams.doc 27

 2oo3 system: State
Reliability of a MooN system
enumeration

= ∑ N R iF N − i
A N 




R 




MooN i





i= M
 
 
B
2oo3 Success or failure So for 2oo3 system;
logic ?
C 2 1 3 0
   

= 3 R F + 3R F
   
R 







2oo3 2 3 












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2oo3 system:
2oo5 System
State enumeration
1. A B C RA RB RC Calculate the reliability of a 2oo5 system; i.e.
2. A B C FA RB RC
A at least two components must work
3. A B C RA FB RC
4. A B C RA RB FC
successfully for the system to work
2oo3 B 5. A B C FA FB RC successfully.
6. A B C FA RB FC Suppose component reliability is 0.8.
7. A B C RA FB FC
C
8. A B C FA FB FC

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2oo3 system: 2oo5 system: Success

State enumeration Logic
Possible states
1. A B C RA RB RC In success logic, this is equivalent to:
A 2. A B C FA RB RC
3. A B C RA FB RC 2 work, or 3 work, or 4 work or 5 work.
4. A B C RA RB FC ( a total of 4 ways)
2oo3 B 5. A B C FA FB RC
6. A B C FA RB FC
       
7. A B C RA FB FC        
C 5 2 3 5 3 2 5 4 1 5 5 0
       

2oo5 = 2
8. A B C FA FB FC R R F + R F + R F + RF
































3 4 5
R
2oo5 = 10R2F 3+10R3F 2 +5R4F1+ R5

2oo5 =
R 099328
.
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Reliability of a 2oo3 system 2oo5 system: Failure Logic

R = RA RB RC + FA RB RC + RA FB RC + RA RB FC In Failure logic, this is equivalent to:

If RA = RB = RC = R
4 fail or 5 fail (a total of 2 ways only)
then FA = FB = FC = F
   
   
So; 
5 4 1 5 5 0
  

4oo5 = 4
F 



F R + F R












R2oo3 = R3 + 3 R2F 5
R2oo3 = 3R2 - 2R3 F
4oo5 = 5F 4R1+ F5

4oo5 =
F .
000672
R
2oo5 = 099328
.
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