CHAPTER 4:

PROBABILITY

1
 EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES,
AND SAMPLE SPACE
Definition
An experiment is a process that, when
performed, results in one and only one of
many observations. These observations are
called that outcomes of the experiment.
The collection of all outcomes for an
experiment is called a sample space.

2
 Table 4.1 Examples of Experiments, Outcomes, and
Sample Spaces

Experiment Outcomes Sample Space

Toss a coin once Head, Tail S = {Head, Tail}
Roll a die once 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Play lottery Win, Lose S = {Win, Lose}
Take a test Pass, Fail S = {Pass, Fail}
Select a student Male, Female S = {Male, Female}

3
 Example 4-1
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the
experiment of tossing a coin once.

4
 Figure 4.1 (a) Venn Diagram and (b) tree diagram for
one toss of a coin.

Outcomes

Head H
S

H T
Tail T

(b)
(a)

5
 Example 4-2
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the
experiment of tossing a coin twice.

6
Figure 4.2 a Venn diagram for two tosses of a coin.

S
HH HT

TH
TT

(a)

7
Figure 4.2 b Tree diagram for two tosses of coin.

Second Final
First toss
toss outcomes

HH
H

H
T HT
H TH
T

T TT
(b)
8
 Example 4-3
Suppose we randomly select two persons
from the members of a club and observe
whether the person selected each time is a
man or a woman. Write all the outcomes for
this experiment. Draw the Venn and tree
diagrams for this experiment.

9
Figure 4.3 a Venn diagram for selecting two
persons.

S
MM MW

WM WW

(a)

10
Figure 4.3 b Tree diagram for selecting two
persons.

First Second Final

selection selection outcomes

MM
M

M
W MW
M WM
W

W WW
(b)

11
 Simple and Compound Events

Definition
An event is a collection of one or more of
the outcomes of an experiment.

12
 Simple and Compound Events
cont.
Definition
An event that includes one and only one of
the (final) outcomes for an experiment is
called a simple event and is denoted by
Ei.

13
 Example 4-4
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons
from the members of a club and observing whether
the person selected each time is a man or a
woman. Each of the final four outcomes (MM, MW,
WM, WW) for this experiment is a simple event.
These four events can be denoted by E1, E2, E3, and
E4, respectively. Thus,

E1 = (MM ), E2 = (MW ), E3 = (WM ), and

E4 = (WW )

14
 Simple and Compound Events
Definition
A compound event is a collection of more
than one outcome for an experiment.

15
 Example 4-5
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons from the
members of a club and observing whether the person
selected each time is a man or a woman. Let A be the
event that at most one man is selected. Event A will occur
if either no man or one man is selected. Hence, the event
A is given by
A = {MW, WM, WW}

Because event A contains more than one outcome, it is a

compound event. The Venn diagram in Figure 4.4 gives a
graphic presentation of compound event A.

16
Figure 4.4 Venn diagram for event A.

S
MW A
MM

WM WW

17
 Example 4-6
In a group of a people, some are in favor of genetic
engineering and others are against it. Two persons are
selected at random from this group and asked whether
they are in favor of or against genetic engineering. How
many distinct outcomes are possible? Draw a Venn
diagram and a tree diagram for this experiment. List all
the outcomes included in each of the following events and
mention whether they are simple or compound events.

(a) Both persons are in favor of the genetic engineering.

(b) At most one person is against genetic engineering.
(c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering.

18
 Solution 4-6
Let
 F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering
 A = a person is against genetic engineering
 FF = both persons are in favor of genetic engineering
 FA = the first person is in favor and the second is
against
 AF = the first is against and the second is in favor
 AA = both persons are against genetic engineering

19
Figure 4.5 a Venn diagram.

FF FA

AF AA

(a)

20
Figure 4.5 b Tree diagram.

First Second Final

person person outcomes

FF
F

F
A FA
F AF
A

A AA
(b)
21
 Solution 4-6
a) Both persons are in favor of genetic
engineering = { FF }
It is a simple event.
b) At most one person is against genetic
engineering = { FF, FA, AF }
It is a compound event.
c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic
engineering = { FA, AF }
It is a compound event.

22
 CALCULATING PROBABILITY
 Two Properties of probability
 Three Conceptual Approaches to
Probability
 Classical Probability
 Relative Frequency Concept of Probability
 Subjective Probability

23
 CALCULATING PROBABLITY
Definition
Probability is a numerical measure of the
likelihood that a specific event will occur.

24
 Two Properties of Probability
 First Property of Probability
 0 ≤ P (Ei) ≤ 1
 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1

 Second Property of Probability

 ΣP (Ei) = P (E1) + P (E2) + P (E3) + … = 1

25
 Three Conceptual Approaches
to Probability
Classical Probability

Definition
Two or more outcomes (or events) that
have the same probability of occurrence
are said to be equally likely outcomes
(or events).

26
 Classical Probability
Classical Probability Rule to Find Probability

1
P( Ei ) 
Total number of outcomes for the experiment

Number of outcomes favorable to A

P( A) 
Total number of outcomes for the experiment

27
 Example 4-7
Find the probability of obtaining a head and
the probability of obtaining a tail for one
toss of a coin.

28
 Solution 4-7

1 1
P (head )    .50
Total number of outcomes 2

Similarly,
1
P ( tail)   .50
2
29
 Example 4-8
Find the probability of obtaining an even
number in one roll of a die.

30
Solution 4-8

Number of outcomes included in A 3

P (even )    .50
Total number of outcomes 6

31
 Example 4-9
In a group of 500 women, 80 have played
golf at lest once. Suppose one of these 500
women is randomly selected. What is the
probability that she has played golf at least
once?

32
 Solution 4-9

80
P (selected woman has played golf at least once)   .16
500

33
 Three Conceptual Approaches
to Probability cont.
Relative Concept of Probability

Using Relative Frequency as an Approximation

of Probability
If an experiment is repeated n times and an
event A is observed f times, then, according to
the relative frequency concept of probability:
f
P ( A) 
n 34
 Example 4-10
Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars
manufactured at a certain auto factory are
found to be lemons. Assuming that the
lemons are manufactured randomly, what is
the probability that the next car
manufactured at this auto factory is a
lemon?

35
 Solution 4-10
Let n denotes the total number of cars in the
sample and f the number of lemons in n. Then,
n = 500 and f = 10
Using the relative frequency concept of
probability, we obtain
f 10
P (next car is a lemon)    .02
n 500

36
Table 4.2 Frequency and Relative Frequency
Distributions for the Sample of Cars

Car f Relative frequency

Good 490 490/500 = .98
Lemon 10 10/500 = .02
n = 500 Sum = 1.00

37
 Law of Large Numbers
Definition
Law of Large Numbers If an experiment
is repeated again and again, the probability
of an event obtained from the relative
frequency approaches the actual or
theoretical probability.

38
 Three Conceptual Approaches
to Probability
Subjective Probability

Definition
Subjective probability is the probability
assigned to an event based on subjective
judgment, experience, information and
belief.

39
 Basic Counting Rule

If r actions are to be performed in a specific order and if

there are m1 possibilities for the first action, m2 possibilities
for the second action, m3 possibilities for the third action
and so on to mr possibilities for the last action then the
total number of possible outcomes is
m1∙m2∙m3 . . . ∙mr
The product of m1 through mr. This is known as the Basic
Counting Rule
 COUNTING RULE
Counting Rule to Find Total Outcomes

If an experiment consists of three steps and if

the first step can result in m outcomes, the
second step in n outcomes, and the third in k
outcomes, then
Total outcomes for the experiment = m · n · k

41
 Example 4-12
Suppose we toss a coin three times. This
experiment has three steps: the first toss, the
second toss and the third toss. Each step has two
outcomes: a head and a tail. Thus,

Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8

The eight outcomes for this experiment are

HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT
42
 Example 4-13
A prospective car buyer can choose between
a fixed and a variable interest rate and can
also choose a payment period of 36 months,
48 months, or 60 months. How many total
outcomes are possible?

43
 Solution 4-13

Total outcomes = 2 x 3 = 6

44
 Example 4-14
A National Football League team will play 16 games
during a regular season. Each game can result in
one of three outcomes: a win, a lose, or a tie. The
total possible outcomes for 16 games are calculated
as follows:
Total outcomes = 3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3 ·3·3·3·3
= 316 = 43,046,721
One of the 43,046,721 possible outcomes is all 16
wins.

45
 An Example of the Basic Counting
Rule
James and Carol are having a house built for them. They
can choose from a brick front, a stone front or siding for
the front of their house. They can choose windows with
shutters or windows without shutters for the windows.
Finally, they can choose an oak door with a full window, a
mahogany door with a half window or a fiberglass door
with no window for the front door. How many different
configuration can there be for the front of the house?
3∙2∙3 = 18
 Problems Using the Basic Counting
Rule
Students at Enormous State University are each assigned a student
ID consisting of two letters and 3 digits. The first letter can be any
one of the 5 vowels A, E, I, O or U and the second letter can be any
one of the 21 consonants (assume Y is a consonant). The three
digits can each be any of the digits 0 – 9 (repetitions are allowed).
How many possible student IDs are there? (click mouse to see answer)

5  21 10 10 10  105, 000

If we do not allow digits to be repeated how many possible student
IDs are there? (click mouse to se answer)

5  21 10  9  8  75, 600

 Factorials

Frequently when counting the number of possible

outcomes we need to use factorials. A factorial is a
product of consecutive integers.
k! = k(k-1)(k-2)(k-3) . . .3∙2∙1
5! = 5∙4∙3∙2∙1 = 120

It is also the case that k! = k(k-1)!

= k(k-1)(k-2)!
 Finding Factorials with the
Calculator

The TI-83, TI-83 Plus and TI-84 Plus calculators have a built –in function
for calculating factorials . To find it press the MATH key, move the cursor
to highlight PRB and select option 4: !

To use the calculator to find 12! start by entering 12 on the home screen
of the calculator. Then press MATH, highlight PRB and select 4: ! Doing
this will return you to the home screen. The line on the calculator should
look like this:
12!
Press ENTER and the calculator will return the answer 479001600.
 Practice Finding Factorials
Use your calculator to find the following factorials.
(click mouse to see the answer)

8!  40320

20!  2.432902008E18
 Permutations
A permutation of r objects from a collection of m objects is an
ordered arrangement of the r objects. It is essential to
remember that with permutations order is important. The
notation that we use to represent combinations is mPr

As an example of some permutations choose any three letters

from the alphabet to form a “word”. If we don’t allow letters to
be repeated in any word then there are 26 choices for the first
letter, 25 choices for the second letter and 24 choices for the 3rd
letter. By the Basic Counting Rule the total number of words we
can form is 26∙25∙24 = 15,600. Words with the same letters in
different arrangements are considered to be different words.
This means that act is different from cat is different from tac,
etc.
 Finding the Number of
Permutations
The formula for finding the number of permutations of
m objects taken r at a time is given by the following
formula: m!
Pr 
(m  r )!
m

Going back to the example on the previous slide the

number of 3 letter words with no letters repeating is
the number of permutations of 26 objects (letters)
taken 3 at a time 26! 26!
26 P3    15600
(26  3)! 23!
 Using the Calculator to Find
Permutations
The TI-83, TI-83 Plus and TI-84 Plus calculators have a built –in
function for calculating the number of permutations . To find it
press the MATH key, move the cursor to highlight PRB and select
option 2: nPr.

To use the calculator to find the number of permutations of 12

objects taken 5 at a time start by entering 12 on the home screen
of the calculator. Then press MATH, highlight PRB and select 2:
nPr. Doing this will return you to the home screen. Next enter 5.
The line on the calculator should look like this:
12 nPr 5
Press ENTER and the calculator will return the answer 95040
Practice Finding the Number of
Permutations

Use your calculator to find the following numbers of

permutations. (click mouse to see the answers)
20! 20!
P6 20 P6    27907200
20
(20  6)! 14!
8! 8!
P 8 P1   8
8 1
(8  1)! 7!
10! 10!
P 10 P10    3628800
10 10
(10  10)! 0!
 Problems with Permutations
How many different four-digit ID numbers can be formed if we
don’t allow a digit to be repeated within an ID number?
(click mouse to see answer)
10!
10 P4   5040
(10  4)!

How many different ways can 6 books be arranged on a shelf?

6! 6!
6 P6    720
(6  6)! 0!
 Combinations

A combination of r objects from a collection of m objects is an

unordered arrangement of the r objects. Remember that with
combinations order is not important. The notation that we use to
represent combinations is mCr

As an example of combinations choose any three books from the

20 books listed in a book club’s catalog. The total number of
three-book combinations is 1140.
 Finding the Number of
Combinations
The formula for finding the number of permutations of n
objects taken r at a time is given by the following
formula: m!
Cr 
r !(m  r )!
m

Going back to the example on the previous slide the

number of 3 book combinations out of 20 books is the
number of combinations of 20 objects (books) taken 3
at a time 20! 20!
20 C3    1140
3!(20  3)! 3!17!
 Using the Calculator to Find
Combinations

The TI-83, TI-83 Plus and TI-84 Plus calculators have a built –in
function for calculating the number of combinations . To find it
press the MATH key, move the cursor to highlight PRB and select
option 3: nCr.

To use the calculator to find the number of combinations of 12

objects taken 5 at a time start by entering 12 on the home screen
of the calculator. Then press MATH, highlight PRB and select 3:
nCr. Doing this will return you to the home screen. Next enter 5.
The line on the calculator should look like this:
12 nCr 5
Press ENTER and the calculator will return the answer 220.
Practice Finding the Number of
Combinations

Use your calculator to find the following numbers of

combinations. (click mouse to see the answers)
20! 20!
20 C6    38760
6!(20  6)! 6!14!
8! 8!
C1   8
8 1!(8  1)! 1!7!

10! 10!
10 C10   1
10!(10  10)! 10!0!
 Problems with Combinations
How many different five-card poker hands can be dealt using an
ordinary 52 card deck?
(click mouse to see answer)
52!
52 C5   2598960
5!(52  5)!

How many different committees of 8 people can be formed from a

group of 25?
25! 25!
25 C8    1081575
8!(25  8)! 8!17!
 MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Suppose all 100 employees of a company were
asked whether they are in favor of or against
paying high salaries to CEOs of U.S. companies.
Table 4.3 gives a two way classification of the
responses of these 100 employees.

61
 Table 4.3 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses

In Favor Against
Male 15 45
Female 4 36

62
MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Table 4.4 Two-Way Classification of Employee Responses
with Totals

In Favor Against Total

Male 15 45 60
Female 4 36 40
Total 19 81 100

63
 MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Definition
Marginal probability is the probability of
a single event without consideration of any
other event. Marginal probability is also
called simple probability.

64
 Table 4.5 Listing the Marginal Probabilities

In Favor Against Total

(A ) (B )
Male (M ) 15 45 60 P (M ) = 60/100 = .60

Female (F ) 4 36 40 P (F ) = 40/100 = .40

Total 19 81 100
P (A ) = 19/100 P (B ) = 81/100
= .19 = .81

65
 MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES cont.

Read as “given”

P ( in favor | male)
The event whose This event has
probability is to be already occurred
determined

66
 MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES cont.
Definition
Conditional probability is the probability that
an event will occur given that another has already
occurred. If A and B are two events, then the
conditional probability A given B is written as
P(A|B)
and read as “the probability of A given that B has
already occurred.”

67
 Example 4-15
Compute the conditional probability
P ( in favor | male) for the data on 100
employees given in Table 4.4.

68
 Solution 4-15
In Favor Against Total
Male 15 45 60

Males who are Total number of

in favor males

Number of males who are in favor 15

P (in favor | male)    .25
Total number of males 60

69
Figure 4.6 We are to find the
Tree Diagram. probability of this event

le
Ma
This event has rs
|
a vo /60 Required probability
already occurred F 15

Ag a
inst
45/6 | Male
le 0
Ma 00
/1
60

Fe le
ma Fe ma
40 |
/10 le ors
0 Fav 0
4/4

Ag
ain
st |
Fem
36/4 ale
0

70
 Example 4-16
For the data of Table 4.4, calculate the
conditional probability that a randomly
selected employee is a female given that
this employee is in favor of paying high
salaries to CEOs.

71
 Solution 4-16
In Favor
15 Females who are in favor

4 Total number of employees who are in favor

19

Number of females who are in favor

P(female | in favor) 
Total number of employees who are in favor
4
  .2105
19
72
Figure 4.7 Tree diagram.

rs
This event has |F
a vo
le
already occurred Ma
15
/60 We are to find the
Fem probability of this event
a le |
4/19 Fav
o rs
rs
vo
Fa 100
/
19
Required probability

Ag
ai nst
81 ainst | Ag
/10 le
0 Ma /81
45

Fem
ale
|A
gai
36/8 nst
1

73
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS
Definition
Events that cannot occur together are said
to be mutually exclusive events.

74
 Example 4-17
Consider the following events for one roll of a
die:
A= an even number is observed= {2, 4, 6}
B= an odd number is observed= {1, 3, 5}
C= a number less than 5 is observed= {1, 2, 3, 4}
Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are
events A and C mutually exclusive?

75
 Solution 4-17
Figure 4.8 Mutually exclusive events A and B.

S
A
1 2
5 6

3 4

76
Solution 4-17
Figure 4.9 Mutually nonexclusive events A and C.

77
 Example 4-18
Consider the following two events for a
randomly selected adult:
Y = this adult has shopped on the Internet at
least once
N = this adult has never shopped on the Internet
Are events Y and N mutually exclusive?

78
Solution 4-18
Figure 4.10 Mutually exclusive events Y and N.

S
Y N

79
 INDEPENDENT VERSUS
DEPENDENT EVENTS
Definition
Two events are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of the other. In
other words, A and B are independent
events if
either P (A | B ) = P (A ) or P (B | A ) = P (B )

80
 Example 4-19
Refer to the information on 100 employees
given in Table 4.4. Are events “female (F )”
and “in favor (A )” independent?

81
 Solution 4-19
Events F and A will be independent if
P (F ) = P (F | A )

Otherwise they will be dependent.

From the information given in Table 4.4
P (F ) = 40/100 = .40
P (F | A ) = 4/19 = .2105
Because these two probabilities are not equal, the
two events are dependent.
82
 Example 4-20
A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were
manufactured on two machines. Of them, 60 were
manufactured on Machine I. Of the total CDs, 15
are defective. Of the 60 CDs that were
manufactured on Machine I, 9 are defective.
Let D be the event that a randomly selected CD is
defective, and let A be the event that a randomly
selected CD was manufactured on Machine I. Are
events D and A independent?

83
 Solution 4-20
From the given information,
P (D ) = 15/100 = .15
P (D | A ) = 9/60 = .15
Hence,
P (D ) = P (D | A )
Consequently, the two events are
independent.

84
 Table 4.6 Two-Way Classification Table

Defective Good
(D ) (G ) Total
Machine I (A ) 9 51 60
Machine II (B ) 6 34 40
Total 15 85 100

85
 Two Important Observations
 Two events are either mutually exclusive or
independent.
 Mutually exclusive events are always
dependent.
 Independent events are never mutually
exclusive.
 Dependents events may or may not be
mutually exclusive.
86
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
Definition
The complement of event A, denoted by Ā
and is read as “A bar” or “A complement”, is
the event that includes all the outcomes for
an experiment that are not in A.

87
Figure 4.11 Venn diagram of two complementary
events.

A A

88
 Example 4-21
In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have
been audited by the IRS at least once. If one
taxpayer is randomly selected from this
group, what are the two complementary
events for this experiment, and what are
their probabilities?

89
 Solution
 The complementary events for this experiment are
 A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by
the IRS at least once
 Ā = the selected taxpayer has never been
audited by the IRS

 The probabilities of the complementary events

are:
P (A) = 400/2000 = .20

P (Ā) = 1600/2000 = .80

90
Figure 4.12 Venn diagram.

A A

91
 Example 4-22
In a group of 5000 adults, 3500 are in favor
of stricter gun control laws, 1200 are
against such laws, and 300 have no opinion.
One adult is randomly selected from this
group. Let A be the event that this adult is
in favor of stricter gun control laws. What is
the complementary event of A? What are
the probabilities of the two events?
92
 Solution 4-22
 The two complementary events are
 A = the selected adult is in favor of stricter gun
control laws
 Ā = the selected adult either is against such laws or
has no opinion

 The probabilities of the complementary events

are:
P (A) = 3500/5000 = .70
P (Ā) = 1500/5000 = .30

93
Figure 4.13 Venn diagram.

A A

94
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND
THE MULTIPLICATION RULE
 Intersection of Events
 Multiplication Rule

95
 Intersection of Events

Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a
sample space. The intersection of A and B
represents the collection of all outcomes that
are common to both A and B and is denoted
by
A and B
96
Figure 4.14 Intersection of events A and B.

A B

A
and
B

Intersection of A and B

97
 Multiplication Rule

Definition
The probability of the intersection of two
events is called their joint probability. It is
written as
P (A and B ) or P (A ∩ B )

98
 INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND
THE MULTIPLICATION RULE
Multiplication Rule to Find Joint Probability

The probability of the intersection of two

events A and B is
P (A and B ) = P (A )P (B |A )

99
 Example 4-23
Table 4.7 gives the classification of all
employees of a company given by gender
and college degree.

100
 Table 4.7 Classification of Employees by Gender and
Education

College Not a College

Graduate Graduate
(G ) (N ) Total
Male (M ) 7 20 27
Female (F ) 4 9 13
Total 11 29 40

101
 Example 4-23
If one of these employees is selected at
random for membership on the employee
management committee, what is the
probability that this employee is a female
and a college graduate?

102
 Solution 4-23
Calculate the intersection of event F and G

P (F and G ) = P (F )P (G |F )
P (F ) = 13/40
P (G |F ) = 4/13
P (F and G ) = (13/40)(4/13) = .100

103
Figure 4.15 Intersection of events F and G.

Females College graduates

Females and college graduates

104
Figure 4.16 Tree diagram for joint probabilities.
Male / female Graduates / nongraduates Final outcomes
P(M and G) = (27/40) (20/27) = .175
G|M

7/27

N|M

M
20/27
P(M and N) = (27/40) (20/27) = .500
24/40

F
P(F and G) = (13/40) (4/13) = .100
G|F
13/40
4/13

9/13
105
N|F P(F and N) = (13/40) (9/13) = .225
 Example 4-24
A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are
defective. If 2 DVDs are selected at random
(without replacement) from this box, what is
the probability that both are defective?

106
 Solution 4-24
Let us define the following events for this
experiment:
G1 = event that the first DVD selected is good
D1 = event that the first DVD selected is defective
G2 = event that the second DVD selected is good
D2 = event that the second DVD selected is defective

The probability to be calculated is

P (D1 and D2) = P (D1 )P (D2 |D1 )
P (D1) = 4/20
P (D2 |D1) = 3/19
P (D1 and D2) = (4/20)(3/19) = .0316 107
Figure 4.17 Selecting two DVDs.

First selection Second selection Final outcomes

P(G1 and G2) = (16/20) (15/19) = .6316
G2 | G1

15/19

D2 | G1

G1
4/19
P(G1 and D2) = (16/20) (4/19) = .1684
16/20

D1
P(D1 and G2) = (4/20) (16/19) = .1684
G2 | D1
4/20
16/19

D2 | D1
3/19 108
P(D1 and D2) = (4/20) (3/19) = .0316
 Multiplication Rule cont.
Calculating Conditional Probability

If A and B are two events, then,

P( A and B) P( A and B)
P( B | A)  and P( A | B) 
P( A) P( B)

given that P (A ) ≠ 0 and P (B ) ≠ 0.

109
 Example 4-25
The probability that a randomly selected
student from a college is a senior is .20, and
the joint probability that the student is a
computer science major and a senior is .03.
Find the conditional probability that a
student selected at random is a computer
science major given that he/she is a senior.

110
 Solution 4-25
 Let us define the following two events:
 A = the student selected is a senior
 B = the student selected is a computer science
major
 From the given information,
P (A) = .20 and P (A and B) = .03
 Hence,
P (B | A ) = .03/.20 = .15

111
 Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
Multiplication Rule to Calculate the
Probability of Independent Events

The probability of the intersection of two

independent events A and B is
P (A and B ) = P (A )P (B )

112
 Example 4-26
An office building has two fire detectors. The
probability is .02 that any fire detector of
this type will fail to go off during a fire. Find
the probability that both of these fire
detectors will fail to go off in case of a fire.

113
 Solution 4-26
Let
A = the first fire detector fails to go off during a fire
B = the second fire detector fails to go off during a
fire
Then, the joint probability of A and B is
P (A and B ) = P (A) P (B ) = (.02)(.02) = .0004

114
 Example 4-27
The probability that a patient is allergic to
penicillin is .20. Suppose this drug is
administered to three patients.

a) Find the probability that all three of them are

allergic to it.
b) Find the probability that at least one of the
them is not allergic to it.

115
 Solution
a) Let A, B, and C denote the events the first,
second and third patients, respectively, are
allergic to penicillin. Hence,

P (A and B and C ) = P (A ) P (B ) P (C )
= (.20) (.20) (.20) = .008

116
 Solution
b) Let us define the following events:
G = all three patients are allergic
H = at least one patient is not allergic
 P (G ) = P (A and B and C ) = .008
 Therefore, using the complementary event
rule, we obtain
 P (H ) = 1 – P (G )
= 1 - .008 = .992
117
Figure 4.18 Tree diagram for joint probabilities.
First patient Second patient Third patient Final outcomes
C P(ABC) = .008
.20

B C

.20 .80 P(ABC) = .032

B
A C P(ABC) = .032
.80 .20
.20 C
.80 P(ABC) = .128

C P(ABC) = .032
A
.20
.80 C
B .80 P(ABC) = .128
.20

B
P(ABC) = .128
.80 C
.20
C
.80 P(ABC) = .512 118
 Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
Joint Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events

The joint probability of two mutually

exclusive events is always zero. If A and B
are two mutually exclusive events, then
P (A and B ) = 0

119
 Example 4-28
Consider the following two events for an
application filed by a person to obtain a car
loan:
A = event that the loan application is approved
R = event that the loan application is rejected
What is the joint probability of A and R?

120
 Solution 4-28
The two events A and R are mutually
exclusive. Either the loan application will be
approved or it will be rejected. Hence,

P (A and R ) = 0

121
 UNION OF EVENTS AND THE
ADDITION RULE
Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a
sample space. The union of events A and B
is the collection of all outcomes that belong
to either A or B or to both A and B and is
denoted by
A or B

122
 Example 4-29
A senior citizen center has 300 members.
Of them, 140 are male, 210 take at least
one medicine on a permanent basis, and 95
are male and take at least one medicine on
a permanent basis. Describe the union of
the events “male” and “take at least one
medicine on a permanent basis.”

123
 Solution 4-29
 Let us define the following events:
M = a senior citizen is a male
F = a senior citizen is a female
A = a senior citizen takes at least one medicine
B = a senior citizen does not take any medicine

 The union of the events “male” and “take at least

one medicine” includes those senior citizens who
are either male or take at least one medicine or
both. The number of such senior citizen is
140 + 210 – 95 = 255
124
Table 4.8

A B Total
M 95 45 140
F 115 45 160
Total 210 90 300
Counted twice

125
Figure 4.19 Union of events M and A.

M A

Shaded area gives the union of events M and A, and

includes 255 senior citizen
126
 Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
Addition Rule

Addition Rule to Find the Probability of Union

of Events
The portability of the union of two events A
and B is
P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B) – P (A and B )

127
 Example 4-30
A university president has proposed that all
students must take a course in ethics as a
requirement for graduation. Three hundred faculty
members and students from this university were
asked about their opinion on this issue. Table 4.9
gives a two-way classification of the responses of
these faculty members and students.
Find the probability that one person selected at
random from these 300 persons is a faculty
member or is in favor of this proposal.
128
 Table 4.9 Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Oppose Neutral Total

Faculty 45 15 10 70
Student 90 110 30 230
Total 135 125 40 300

129
 Solution 4-30
Let us define the following events:
A = the person selected is a faculty member
B = the person selected is in favor of the proposal
From the information in the Table 4.9,
P (A ) = 70/300 = .2333
P (B ) = 135/300 = .4500
P (A and B) = P (A) P (B | A ) = (70/300)(45/70) = .1500
Using the addition rule, we have
P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) – P (A and B )
= .2333 + .4500 – .1500 = .5333
130
 Example 4-31
A total of 2500 persons, 1400 are female,
600 are vegetarian, and 400 are female and
vegetarian. What is the probability that a
randomly selected person from this group is
a male or vegetarian?

131
 Solution 4-31
Let us define the following events:
F = the randomly selected person is a female
M = the randomly selected person is a male
V = the randomly selected person is a vegetarian
N = the randomly selected person is a non-vegetarian.
P ( M or V )  P ( M )  P (V )  P ( M and V )
1100 600 200
  
2500 2500 2500
 .44  .24  .08  .60
132
 Table 4.10 Two-Way Classification Table

Vegetarian (V) Nonvegetarian (N) Total

Female (F) 400 1000 1400
Male (M) 200 900 1100
Total 600 1900 2500

133
 Addition Rule for Mutually
Exclusive Events
Addition Rule to Find the Probability of the
Union of Mutually Exclusive Events
The probability of the union of two
mutually exclusive events A and B is

P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B )

134
 Example 4-32
A university president has proposed that all
students must take a course in ethics as a
requirement for graduation. Three hundred
faculty members and students from this university
were asked about their opinion on this issue. The
following table, reproduced from Table 4.9 in
Example 4-30, gives a two-way classification of
the responses of these faculty members and
students.

135
 Table 4.9 Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Oppose Neutral Total

Faculty 45 15 10 70
Student 90 110 30 230
Total 135 125 40 300

136
Example 4-32
What is the probability that a randomly
selected person from these 300 faculty
members and students is in favor of the
proposal or is neutral?

137
Figure 4.20 Venn diagram of mutually exclusive
events.

N
F

138
 Solution 4-32
Let us define the following events:
F = the person selected is in favor of the proposal
N = the person selected is neutral
From the given information,
P (F ) = 135/300 = .4500
P (N ) = 40/300 = .1333
Hence,
P (F or N ) = P (F ) + P (N ) = .4500 + .1333 = .5833

139
 Example 4-33
Consider the experiment of rolling a die
twice. Find the probability that the sum of
the numbers obtained on two rolls is 5, 7,
or 10.

140
 Table 4.11 Two Rolls of a Die

Second Roll of the Die

1 2 3 4 5 6
First 1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
Roll of 2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
the Die 3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

141
 Solution 4-33
P (sum is 5 or 7 or 10)
= P (sum is 5) + P (sum is 7) + P (sum is 10)
= 4/36 + 6/36 + 3/36
= 13/36
= .3611

142
 Example 4-34
The probability that a person is in favor of
genetic engineering is .55 and that a
person is against it is .45. Two persons are
randomly selected, and it is observed
whether they favor or oppose genetic
engineering.
a) Draw a tree diagram for this experiment
b) Find the probability that at least one of the
two persons favors genetic engineering.
143
 Solution 4-34
a) Let
F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering
A = a person is against genetic engineering

The tree diagram in Figure 4.21 shows these four

outcomes and their probabilities.

144
Figure 4.21 Tree diagram.
First person Second person Final outcomes and their
probabilities

P(FF) = (.55) (.55) = .3025

F
.55

A
F .45
.55 P(FA) = (.55) (.45) = .2475
.55

A P(AF) = (.45) (.55) = .2475

.45 F
.55

A
.45
P(AA) = (.45) (.45) = .2025
145
 Solution
b) P ( at least one person favors)
= P (FF or FA or AF )
= P (FF ) + P (FA ) + P (AF )
= .3025 + .2475 + .2475
= .7975

146