Tutorial 7– Outline Solutions

Q1. A simulation modeller decides that the time to complete a particular activity is best modelled
by the uniform probability distribution. Describe in words, what the modeller knows about the
time to complete the activity.

The modeller knows the minimum time and maximum time to complete the activity. Probably
they have no further information. Possibly they know that activity times are evenly distributed
between the min and max values.
Q2. Describe the triangular probability distributions, and suggest when you might use it in a
simulation model.

You use it when you know the average or most likely value. You also know the minimum and
maximum values. In real life, probability distributions do not usually have straight edges. So it
is not usually very realistic.
Q3. What probability distribution might be appropriate for modelling the following set of
numbers ? And what parameters would be appropriate ?

2 4 9 10 7 8 4 6 5 5 7 9 6 5 8 3 7 6 8 7

A graph of the data looks like:

This could be modelled by the triangular distribution with parameters: minimum = 2, mode
=7, maximum = 10
Q4. The mean time to complete a particular activity is known to be 10 minutes. Draw graphs to
show the distribution of all activity times, assuming the following:
 The times have a Normal distribution with standard deviation of 2 minutes
 The times have a Normal distribution with standard deviation of 5 minutes
 The times have a Lognormal distribution with standard deviation of 2 minutes.
 (Notice the different scales on both axes. If they were drawn on similar axes, the second
would be wider and flatter.)

Q5. Passengers are observed arriving at the information desk of a busy airport. It is noted that
on average 30 passengers arrive every hour. The time it takes (to the nearest minute) to
serve each of these passengers is found to be:

5 2 0 3 6 4 2 0 4 3 8 3 1 3 2 3 6 4 4 5

If you were building a simulation model of the information desk, what would be appropriate
probability distribution to use for the passenger arrival rate and service times ? Include all
appropriate parameter(s).

Activity times:

Mean = 3.4
St Dev = 2

This would be modelled by a normal distribution with the above parameters.

Q6. A simulation model typically includes several probability distributions. How the model
behaves depends on the roll of the dice – in this case, the simulation program’s random
number stream. In that case, how useful are the results of the model for predicting how the
system will behave ?

The results will not predict exactly how the system will behave. However, if we have built a
good model, and run it for a long enough time, then the results should give us a good idea
of how the system might behave.