Final countdown to high-stakes election

US 2020 Election Outlook

A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit

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FINAL COUNTDOWN TO HIGH-STAKES ELECTION
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

Final countdown to high-stakes election

US 2020 Election Outlook
N o matter the outcome, the US presidential election on November 3rd will have far-reaching
consequences. The policy implications of a victory for the incumbent, Donald Trump, or the
Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, could not be more contrasting. The Economist Intelligence Unit
expects the candidates to take vastly different approaches in areas such as climate change and
corporate taxation, as well as co-operation with allies. US voters are aware of the high stakes: 75% of
respondents in an Ipsos poll conducted in September said that the November 2020 election is “a battle
for the soul of the nation”.
However, the US is in for a bumpy ride before
Majority of Americans see 2020 election the swearing-in of the next administration, due
as an existential threat on January 20th 2021. Unless Mr Biden’s victory
(% agree “We are in a battle for the soul of the nation”)
is emphatic, Mr Trump is likely to dispute the
100
outcome of the election. Given the lack of
80 precedent for handling a disputed election and
75% 78% 77% the unique conditions created by the ongoing
68% 60
coronavirus pandemic, we expect this dispute
40 to drag on until end-2020. Ultimately, we
expect a winner to be officially declared before
20
Inauguration Day, in the face of mounting political,
0 social and economic pressures. However, there
All Americans Republicans Democrats Independents is a downside risk that a dispute could carry on
Source: Ipsos poll, September 2020.
beyond January 20th, disrupting the handover of
power and posing serious economic risks.

A Biden victory is still the most likely outcome

The presidential election is likely to be close, but the odds are in Mr Biden’s favour. Mr Biden enjoys a
stronger base of support both among Democratic voters and among the general electorate than did
the Democratic candidate in 2016, Hillary Clinton. Mr Trump’s core support base is rock solid, but it
has not expanded beyond 40-44% of the electorate throughout his first term. This will make it nearly
impossible for him to walk the same narrow path to victory in the Electoral College that he did in 2016,
particularly as the coronavirus pandemic and deepening social unrest have exposed weaknesses in his
governing style.
With four weeks to go before the election, Mr Biden still leads Mr Trump in national polling by eight
percentage points. This is down from a more than ten-point lead in July, as Mr Trump has used the
spectre of social unrest, and more recently, the imminent confirmation of a sixth conservative Supreme
Court justice, to galvanise his conservative base. Thus far, Mr Trump’s polling has not changed since
he fell ill with the coronavirus, although this will remain a wild card in the coming weeks. Nonetheless,
Mr Biden’s lead heading into the polls is still sizeable.

1 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

FINAL COUNTDOWN TO HIGH-STAKES ELECTION
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

Biden leads by seven points with a month until the election

(% survey respondents, aggregated polling)
Biden Trump
54
52
50
48
46
44
42
40
38

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2019 2020
Source: RealClear Politics.

Polling should be questioned, but not ignored

Polling should be approached with some caution. After all, polls were notoriously poor predictors of
Mr Trump’s 2016 victory. However, they can still offer important insights for this year’s race. For one,
national-level polling in 2016 was in fact more accurate than it may seem in hindsight; Mrs Clinton only
led Mr Trump in the polls by three percentage points at this point in the 2016 election cycle. This is a
fairly accurate reflection of the popular vote, which Mrs Clinton carried by a 2.1% margin (with 48.2% of
the popular vote, compared with Mr Trump’s 46.1%). Despite this, Mr Trump’s narrow victory in four key
battleground states—Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—with a margin of less than 2% of
the vote in each state—allowed him to clinch victory in the Electoral College.

Biden has held a wider lead over Trump in the polls than Clinton did in 2016
(Candidates' net favourability rating relative to Trump's)

Biden Clinton 14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2019 2020
Source: RealClear Politics.

This election year looks different. Mr Biden has consistently held a wider lead over Mr Trump in
national polling than Mrs Clinton did, which suggests that it will be harder this time for Mr Trump to
secure a narrow victory in the Electoral College. Post-election analysis conducted by the Pew Research
2 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
FINAL COUNTDOWN TO HIGH-STAKES ELECTION
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

Center also showed that a larger than usual proportion of swing voters opted for Mr Trump at the last
minute, despite not having indicated their support for him in earlier polling surveys. The Pew research
suggested that these last-minute decisions in Mr Trump’s favour helped to boost his margins in key
swing states by more than one percentage point—enough to make the difference for Mr Trump and to
make polling look erroneous.
It is also likely, although difficult to quantify, that Mr Trump’s public approval ratings were under-
reported before the 2016 election. Some moderate Republican and swing voters may have refrained
from publicly voicing their support for him before the election owing to his numerous personal
scandals or his hard-right views on sensitive issues like immigration, which have come more into the
mainstream since his election. However, these distortions in opinion polling are less likely in 2020, given
that Mr Trump is now the incumbent.

What to watch in battleground states

As in 2016, we expect the election outcome to be decided by a few key swing states. As of October
5th, Mr Biden remained in the lead in aggregate polling in the four most important ones: Michigan,
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. Given the unique polling circumstances created by the pandemic,
we do not expect the results in any of these key states to be officially declared for several days, at
least—which opens the door for the results to be disputed in the meantime.

Biden currently leads in Democrat-leaning states that flipped to Trump in 2016

Revised procedures due to Covid-19**
Consecutive Trump’s Current Polling at Ballots are and received EIU
presidential elections margin of 2020 same point valid if they are by… outlook
won by Democrats victory in polling* in 2016 postmarked by…
prior to 2016 2016
Likely
Michigan 6 0.30% Biden +7 Clinton +5 Nov 2nd Nov 17th
Biden
Leaning
Wisconsin 7 0.70% Biden +6.8 Clinton +5 Nov 3rd Nov 9th
Biden
Leaning
Pennsylvania 6 0.70% Biden +6.0 Clinton +3 Nov 3rd Nov 6th
Biden
Nov 3rd (no Too close
Florida 2 1.20% Biden +2 Clinton +1 Nov 3rd
extension) to call
* as of October 5th

** postal ballot dates may be revised, pending legal challenges.

Source: FiveThirtyEight; The Economist Intelligence Unit.

Michigan: Mr Biden leads in the polls in Michigan, but Mr Trump may have a way to narrow that
gap on election day. Recent research from the The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter,
highlighted that there is a large pocket of potential Trump supporters in midwestern states like
Michigan who did not vote in the 2016 election. Polling data from the Pew Research Center showed
that 60% of Michigan residents who did not vote in 2016 are non-college educated whites—the
demographic group among whom Mr Trump enjoys his widest lead over Mr Biden. Rather than trying
to appeal to voters outside his core base, we expect Mr Trump to focus on mobilising all voters within
it—including through his focus on law enforcement and urban social unrest. In a close election, even
small voter groups like this could make a difference.
3 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
FINAL COUNTDOWN TO HIGH-STAKES ELECTION
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

Michigan has extended its deadline for postal ballots to be received by nearly two weeks, more
than most other states. This is likely to benefit Mr Biden, as more Democrat supporters have indicated
that they plan to vote by mail than Republicans. However, the extended tallying period is likely to be
challenged by Mr Trump’s legal team in the courts, prolonging the election dispute.
Wisconsin: Similarly to Michigan, non-college educated whites made up 64% of all non-voters
in Wisconsin in the 2016 election. It comes as no surprise that Mr Trump chose to visit Kenosha,
Wisconsin, in the wake of clashes between Black Lives Matter and right-wing protesters in late August.
This is the only site of race-related protests that Mr Trump visited, and while there he focused heavily
on the threats posed by urban unrest—most likely in an effort to galvanise his base. The results from
Wisconsin are likely to be reported ahead of those from Michigan, making the state a bellwether for
Mr Trump’s performance in the critical Midwest.
Pennsylvania: Mr Biden’s lead is narrow in Pennsylvania, at 5%. The key here for both candidates
will be their policies on industry. Mr Trump may be lagging in the polls here given his administration’s
failure to revive traditional industries in Pennsylvania, as promised during his 2016 campaign. Mr Biden
could also face an uphill battle, as his plans to boost climate-friendly industries create uncertainty
for tens of thousands of voters working in key sectors in Pennsylvania, including mining and
manufacturing.
Florida: Florida has in recent decades been an accurate predictor of the eventual winner of the
race—going for Republican George W Bush in 2000 and 2004, Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and
2012, and then Mr Trump in 2016—and could decide the outcome for either candidate. The race looks
extremely tight. Hispanic voters will have a critical role to play; Mr Trump’s approval rating among
Hispanic voters has improved by 7% compared with 2016—whereas his ratings have stagnated or fallen
with almost all other voter groups. Florida has not as yet extended its timeline for postal ballots; this
is also likely to fuel tensions in the days following the election, if Democrats consider that some postal
ballots were discounted.

How could an election dispute play out?

On election night, we expect Mr Trump to take an early lead as the results of in-person voting—which
is likely to favour Mr Trump—are tallied and reported first. Mr Trump will prematurely claim victory, but
his lead will disappear over the following week as postal votes are counted. Mr Trump could then call
foul, claiming widespread fraud in the postal ballot system. Lawyers representing the Trump campaign
are likely to launch lawsuits in battleground states, in particular questioning the validity of postal
ballots. Mr Biden’s team would launch counter suits, setting the stage for a dispute that could drag on
into December.
The dispute could eventually end up in one of two places: before the Supreme Court or Congress.
The Supreme Court may, for example, strike down recount orders, which could decide the outcome of
the vote in key states. However, a Supreme Court ruling on electoral process is not enough to end the
dispute; the losing candidate must formally concede in order for the dispute to end—which creates
the possibility that Mr Trump could continue to challenge various state results in the courts well into
January 2020, running the risk that no winner will be identified by Inauguration Day.
If state authorities disagree amongst themselves about the outcome of the local vote—for example,
if the governor and state legislature cannot agree—the dispute could end up before Congress. States
4 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
FINAL COUNTDOWN TO HIGH-STAKES ELECTION
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

send a slate of electors to the Electoral College

More Biden supporters than Trump to vote on behalf of the state winner, and
supporters plan to vote by mail
(% registered voters, according to survey results) Congress is responsible for tallying those votes.
In this case, the outcome is unclear, given that
In person By mail
100 the US has no tested institutional mechanism

80 for resolving such a crisis. If there is agreement

80% that no winner has yet been identified, the
60
58% 58%
leader of the House of Representatives—in this
40 case, Democrat Nancy Pelosi—would assume
39% 40%
20 control on Inauguration Day as an interim leader.
17% However, this chain of command probably
0
All voters Leaning Trump Leaning Biden
would not kick in if both candidates are still
Source: Pew Research Center, survey conducted among US adults claiming victory at that time; in such a scenario,
July 27th-August 2nd, 2020.
Mr Trump could therefore refuse to leave office.
In this worst-case scenario, it is likely that
Democrats in Congress would refuse to move the legislative agenda forward until the dispute is
resolved. With budgetary decisions suspended, this would probably result in a government shutdown
in early 2021. This would be an extreme result given that the country will still be recovering from the
economic fallout of the pandemic, and tens of millions of households will still be reliant on state-
backed unemployment benefits. 
For that reason, we do not expect the election dispute to be dragged out to this worst-case scenario.
Given the social unrest that this would spark and the damaging economic implications, we expect one
candidate or the other to back down before Inauguration Day. However, the risk of inaugural delay
cannot be written off, in a worrying new chapter for US democracy. 

5 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

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