Finance Research Letters 50 (2022) 103236

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Finance Research Letters

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/frl

Short-run impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis on the housing

market in Poland
Radoslaw Trojanek a, *, Michal Gluszak b
a
Poznań Univeristy of Economics and Business, Al. Niepodległości 10, Poznań, 61-875 Poland
b
Cracow University of Economics, ul. Rakowicka 27, Cracow, 31-510 Poland

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

JEL: This study analysed the impact of the Russian aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 on
R21 rental and housing prices in Warsaw and Krakow, two major cities in Poland. We hypothesize that
R22 the tremendous urban population growth (by 15% in Warsaw and 23% in Krakow) in a short
R30
period generated a housing demand shock, which, combined with constrained availability,
R31
resulted in extraordinary changes in prices and rents. Quantile hedonic indices indicated a sig­
Keywords:
nificant increase in rents since the beginning of the Russian invasion in both markets, which were
Housing market
affected by the refugee shock. However, similar effects were not observed in the case of housing
Demand shock
Refugees prices. In March and April of 2022, rents increased by around 16.5% in Krakow and 14% in
War Warsaw, while housing prices in both cities rose by much less (by about 4.0% in Krakow and 1%
Ukraine in Warsaw). Using Bayesian Structural Time Series models, we demonstrated that this abnormal
rent increase is not random, and we concluded that the inflow of Ukrainian refugees most likely
caused it.

1. Introduction

Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected both countries’ economic and social
welfare (Osiichuk and Shepotylo, 2020). The recent Russian aggression in Ukraine in February 2022 has resulted in immense societal
and economic turbulence, geopolitical tensions, and the biggest refugee crisis in Europe. According to official statistics, as of 1 May
2022, more than 5.5 million people (primarily women and children) fled from Ukraine (UNHCR, 2022). The areas most affected by this
unprecedented exodus were the neighbouring countries in Central and Eastern Europe, with Poland alone accommodating approxi­
mately 60% of refugees from Ukraine (The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, 2022). Most refugees who decided to stay in Poland found
accommodation in major Polish cities. As of 1 April 2022, the population of Warsaw and Krakow has increased by 15% and 23%,
respectively (Wojdat and Cywiński, 2022).
Relatively few economic papers addressed the impact of war conflicts on housing markets. Generally, long-run evidence demon­
strates that wars and other catastrophic events significantly impact the housing market (Eichholtz, 1997). The empirical evidence
suggests that the risk of military operations and terrorism decreases house values in potentially affected locations (Abadie and Der­
misi, 2008; Arbel et al., 2010; Besley, 2009; Hazam and Felsenstein, 2007). War conflicts decrease housing affordability, shift housing
patterns and encourage informal settlements (Wind and Ibrahim, 2020). Additionally, military conflicts often generate refugee crises
that affect regions people flee to and spillover effects on other countries’ housing markets. There is limited yet suggestive statistical

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: radoslaw.trojanek@ue.poznan.pl (R. Trojanek).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103236
Received 2 May 2022; Received in revised form 8 July 2022; Accepted 4 August 2022
Available online 5 August 2022
1544-6123/© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
R. Trojanek and M. Gluszak Finance Research Letters 50 (2022) 103236

data documented in the economic literature on the impact of migration shocks on house rents. Empirical evidence on the regional and
local level generally suggests that refugee shocks push rents and house prices upward. Based on a historical investigation of rent
dynamics in St. Petersburg from 1880 to 1917, Kholodin et al. (2021) show that the massive inflow of refugees into the city during
World War I, combined with the stiff housing supply contributed to a rapid rent increase. US-based studies demonstrate that the
massive exodus of immigrants from Cuba in 1980 resulted in significant rent increases not only in Miami (Saiz, 2003) but also in other
recipient cities (Saiz, 2007). A positive effect of massive immigration on housing rents in Canada, in the long run, was described by
Akbari and Aydede (2012). Relatively recent studies on Syrian refugee influxes to Jordan and Turkey demonstrate that demand shocks
created by the influx of immigrants contribute to the rent increases for low-quality (Alhawarin et al., 2021) and high-quality housing
units (Balkan et al., 2021). The beforementioned studies focused on either mid or long-run perspectives, primarily due to data
collection issues. Little attention was focused on the immediate short-run effects of migration shocks on the housing market. The paper
attempts to fill this gap.
On the other hand, the literature reports micro-level negative externalities generated by asylum seekers, which decrease property
values in specific locations (Lastrapes and Lebesmuehlbacher, 2020). In particular, reception centres for refugees or asylum seekers
may be perceived as a disamenity, negatively impacting house prices in affected neighbourhoods (Daams et al., 2019).
The goal of the paper is to evaluate the impact of the refugee shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on the
housing market in Poland. We use the Bayesian Structural Time Series models to assess the causal effect of the inflow of refugees on
housing prices and rents in Warsaw and Krakow. To our best knowledge, it is the first empirical attempt to study the short-run effect of
the War in Ukraine on the housing market. Moreover, it narrows the gap in evidence on the short-term impacts of refugee shocks on the
housing market.
The rest of the paper is organised as follows. Section 2 explains data collection challenges. The construction of hedonic price and
rent indices is explained in Section 3. Section 4 discusses empirical results and compares the findings to prior literature. Finally, we
summarize major findings, identify research limitations and comment on policy implications in the Conclusions.

2. Methods

The research strategy consists of the following steps. First, the monthly housing and rental price indexes in 2018–2022 were
estimated using the time-dummy hedonic method (quantile estimator) by following the equation (Hill et al., 2018; Hill et al., 2022;
Hill and Trojanek, 2022; Waltl, 2016; Waltl, 2019; Zhang and Yi, 2017):
∑
K ∑
t
lnP = β0 + β j Cj + γ i Di + ε
j=1 i=2

where lnP is the natural logarithm of asking price (asking rent), Di is a zero-one time variable and Cj denotes the apartment’s char­
acteristics. This method includes a dummy variable for each period t in the hedonic model. The price index for period t is then obtained
by exponentiating the estimated shadow price on the period t dummy variable. To control changes in the structure and the quality of
apartments for sale/rent in monthly periods and thereby determine the dynamics, we used the information on the location (district),
size, technology construction, age of buildings and the quality of apartments (set of variables Cj). Table 1 presents the variables used in
the study.
Next, we evaluate the causal impact of the refugee shock related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on house prices and rents in
Poland using the Bayesian Structural Time-series approach (Brodersen et al., 2015), which is an alternative to classic
quasi-experimental methods applied in the economic research (i.e. difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity) and is widely
used to estimate the effect of an intervention on a target time-series. The model is first estimated using data from before the inter­
vention (refugee shock). The dependent variable is then forecast using the observed values of the explanatory variables across the
post-intervention period. The impact of the intervention is defined as the difference between the predicted and observed values of the
dependent variable during the post-intervention period.
The response variable yt refers to house price and rent indices in month t in the cities examined (Krakow and Warsaw). The
Bayesian structural time series model that was used is a state-space model for time series data that may be described as follows:

Table 1
Variables applied in the models.
Symbol Description

year-month 36-time dummy variables were used in the global model. If the dwelling was sold in a given year-month, it takes the value 1; otherwise, it takes
0.
name of the 18 dummy variables for Warsaw and 18 dummy variables for Krakow. If the apartment is located in a given district, it takes the value 1;
district otherwise, it takes 0.
area area of dwelling in square meters
tech 1 - if the dwelling is in a building made with a prefabricated technology, 2 - if the dwelling is in a building made with traditional technology.
age age of the building in years
quality quality of the apartment based on information in listings. Values from 0 to 3 in case of sales and 1 to 3 in case of rental. Notation: 0 – apartment
to renovation, 1 – low quality, 2- medium quality, 3 – high quality

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R. Trojanek and M. Gluszak Finance Research Letters 50 (2022) 103236

yt = μt + τt + εt

μt+1 = μt + wt

∑
S− 2
τt+1 = − τt− S + vt
s=0

The model consists of level component μt that adjusts in time and seasonal component τt where S is the number of seasons. We
assume that errors εt, wt, vt are normal, independent and identically distributed. The estimations were carried out with the python
package pycasualimpact.

3. Data

In Poland, neither Statistics Poland (Pol. Główny Urząd Statystyczny – GUS) nor the National Bank of Poland (Pol. Narodowy Bank
Polski - NBP) provides monthly statistics on housing and rental prices. Moreover, the information in the Property Price Registry
transactions is delayed by up to six-eight months, depending on the city. Furthermore, rental agreements are confidential, and no
official micro-data on rents can be used in empirical studies (only the NBP provides average rents quarterly). Therefore, bearing in
mind the above, it is impossible to keep track of the ongoing changes in the housing market based on transactions and concluded rental
agreements. In recent years, we have observed increased interest in using offer prices/rents to keep abreast of the developments in the
property market (Beręsewicz, 2015; Diewert and Shimizu, 2016; Hahn et al., 2022; Loberto et al., 2018; Trojanek, 2021, 2021)
In the vast majority of cases, listing prices are higher than transaction prices, resulting from negotiations between the seller and the
buyer. Yet, the literature provides evidence that the courses of indices based on offers are very similar to those constructed with
transaction data, and they could serve as a suitable alternative in this case (Anenberg and Laufer, 2017; Kolbe et al., 2021; Lyons, 2019;
Wang et al., 2020). Despite potential drawbacks, leveraging offer data allows us to receive the current findings.
The data on asking prices and asking rents for Krakow and Warsaw (the two biggest cities in Poland) were gathered from the
advertising portal (gratka.pl) monthly from January 2018 to April 2022. The use of offer data, due to their specificity and potential
burden, requires adequate preparation. First, offers that do not have information on the area, price and location of a given apartment
were removed. Then, based on detailed information about the location (street), the offer was assigned to a district as it often happens
that the information about the location in the district is given in the ad, but it does not always correspond to the actual location. In the
next step, repeated offers were removed, leaving the ad with the lowest price in a given month in the database. Then, the offers with
missing information on technology, age and quality were dropped. In the last step the outliers were removed. We computed the he­
donic models of log price independently for each market, taking into account the available features (district, size, construction
technology, age and quality of apartments); after that, we eliminated observations with a studentised residual absolute value greater
than 3 (R. Hill et al., 2021). Table 2 presents descriptive statistics of the final datasets used in the study.
We found no evidence that removed observations are systematically different (having worse or better structural characteristics or
worse or better location) from the final sample used in index construction (see Appendix 1, tables A1-A4). Observed differences in key
characteristics are relatively small, although mostly statistically significant due to sampling size. Most importantly, the cleaning
process did not significantly impact the index estimates (see Appendix 1, figures A1-A4).

4. Results

We estimated quantile, hedonic regression models to construct quality-controlled housing and rental price indices in Krakow and
Warsaw (The results of estimations are in tables A5-A6 in Appendix 2). The hedonic indexes for quantile 0.50 are presented in Fig 1
(Indices for other quantiles are shown in figures A5-A6 in Appendix 2).
The empirical estimates indicate that housing and rental prices behaved differently in the analysed period. The Covid − 19

Table 2
The descriptive statistics for rental and sales markets in Krakow and Warsaw.
Krakow Warsaw
variable mean min max std mean min max std

rent/m2 (in PLN) 46,80 14,47 133,33 12,41 62,70 18,00 217,00 19,71
area (m2) 49,73 20,18 340,00 21,29 63,00 20,05 342,55 32,71
tech 1,96 1,00 2,00 0,19 1,95 1,00 2,00 0,20
quality 2,89 1,00 3,00 0,34 2,78 1,00 3,00 0,44
age 17,95 0,00 570,00 32,35 18,06 0,00 332,00 26,06
N 26,403 59,549
price/m2 (in PLN) 9274,96 3068,18 31,522,00 2965,57 11,056,46 3312,50 39,122,00 3400,95
area (m2) 58,54 20,03 325,00 27,72 64,45 20,04 328,00 29,37
tech 1,81 1,00 2,00 0,38 1,80 1,00 2,00 0,36
quality 1,78 0,00 3,00 1,09 1,78 0,00 3,00 1,13
age 40,08 0,00 522,00 34,75 35,07 0,00 818,00 27,93
N 36,170 104,641

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R. Trojanek and M. Gluszak Finance Research Letters 50 (2022) 103236

pandemic slowed price growth and decreased rents in both cities in 2020. From 2021, however, a significant increase in both prices
and rents is visible. Furthermore, the invasion and the resulting surge of migrants caused another demand shock in the housing market
in the short term. Fig. 1 shows the increase in rents and prices afterwards. Between February and April 2022, rents increased by around
16.5% in Krakow and 14% in Warsaw, which would be a massive rise considering the previous experience. Compared to rents, house
prices in both cities rose less (about 4.0% in Krakow and 1% in Warsaw).
Our next aim was to observe the causal impact of the refugee shock on the housing market with BSTS models (Figures A7-A18
presenting actual and predicted values are attached in Appendix 2). The results have been reported in Table 3.
The probabilities of causal impacts indicate the significant effect of the war in Ukraine on the level of rent in both cities and sales in
Krakow. However, the results for housing prices are not significant in the case of Warsaw. The relative effect in the rental market was
more substantial in lower quantities in Warsaw, while the relationship was the opposite in Krakow. The results are in line with the prior
research on the topic (Akbari and Aydede, 2012; Alhawarin et al., 2021; Balkan et al., 2021; Saiz, 2003, 2007), which shows that flows
of people fleeing from wars, conflicts and poverty seem to have a strong impact for the cities and regions that are close, as they are
typically the prime destinations for refugees. Additionally, we also demonstrate that rental market adjustment is almost immediate. It
has not been extensively investigated in the relevant literature except by Kholodilin et al. (2021). Most notably, the paper addresses the
impact of refugee inflow triggered by the current conflict in Ukraine on Poland’s housing markets. This contemporary topic has not
been investigated before.

5. Conclusions

This is the first study to examine the housing market responses to the refugee shock in Poland after Russia invaded Ukraine in
February 2022. We found a slight price increase using hedonic indices and a substantial abnormal rent increase in March - April 2022.
Furthermore, based on BSTS models, we demonstrate that the rise in the rental market is unlikely to be due to random fluctuations.
Considering that no other such spectacular occurrence happened at that time in Poland, we can link it mainly to the refugee shock.
The method applied in the study does not consider fundamental factors that may affect the behavior of prices and rents in the
housing market. It seems that in the case of the rental market, such a sharp increase in rates is due to the influx of refugees fleeing the
war in Ukraine. The rapid growth of the urban population (by 15% in Warsaw and 23% in Krakow) in a short period led to a housing
demand shock and, combined with limited supply, caused an unprecedented rent increase. The study findings concerning Krakow
suggest the possibility of associating the price increase with the refugee shock. However, the effect was weaker than in the rental
market. The housing market dynamics during the refugee crisis certainly require further research, including macroeconomic factors in
the models.
No housing market could have absorbed the mass inflow of Ukrainian refugees over one month. It should be stated that Poland’s
housing rental market is among the least developed in the European Union. In 2019, only 4.2% of all households inhabited apartments
rented on a market basis, compared to 22.2% in the whole EU. During the initial phase of the crisis, many people found temporal rent-
free accommodation in the homes of Polish citizens and shelters prepared by local governments. Subsequently, some refugees began to

Fig. 1. Hedonic house price and rent indices (quantile 0.50) for Krakow and Warsaw (Jan 2018 – Apr 2022) Note: The figure shows price and rent
indices for Krakow and Warsaw estimated with a time-dummy method. The vertical black line indicates Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022.

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R. Trojanek and M. Gluszak Finance Research Letters 50 (2022) 103236

Table 3
The results of BSTS models estimations.
City Index Actual value Expected value Relative effect Prob. of Causal Impact Statistical significant

Krakow Price Q(0.25) 1.67 1.61 3.49% [0.62%, 6.42%] 99.0% Yes
Price Q(0.50) 1.65 1.6 3.18% [0.73%, 5.56%] 99.4% Yes
Price Q(0.75) 1.64 1.59 3.33% [0.38%, 6.65%] 99.0% Yes
Warsaw Price Q(0.25) 1.51 1.51 0.45% [− 1.82%, 2.75%] 63.14% No
Price Q(0.50) 1.52 1.51 0.73% [− 1.59%, 3.14%] 71.53% No
Price Q(0.75) 1.53 1.52 0.42% [− 2.06%, 3.00%] 63.24% No
Krakow Rent Q(0.25) 1.26 1.12 12.07% [7.98%, 16.39%] 100.0% Yes
Rent Q(0.50) 1.26 1.13 12.16% [7.64%, 16.34%] 100.0% Yes
Rent Q(0.75) 1.27 1.13 12.52% [8.73%, 16.44%] 100.0% Yes
Warsaw Rent Q(0.25) 1.18 1.06 11.34% [7.38%, 14.96%] 100.0% Yes
Rent Q(0.50) 1.20 1.09 10.41% [6.69%, 13.94%] 100.0% Yes
Rent Q(0.75) 1.23 1.12 10.14% [6.3%, 13.82%] 100.0% Yes

search for housing on the rental market, which resulted in increased demand and rent. Regardless of the evolution of conflict in
Ukraine, the refugee shock will present a tremendous challenge for the housing market in the short and mid-term and will require a
systematic and comprehensive housing policy response.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Radoslaw Trojanek: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Visualization, Supervision, Methodology,
Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. Michal Gluszak: Formal analysis, Investigation, Writing – original draft, Writing –
review & editing.

Declaration of Competing Interest

None.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Science Centre of Poland under Grants number 2017/27/B/HS4/01848 and 2021/43/B/
HS4/01213.

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.frl.2022.103236.

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