Introduction to Probability

Tutorial 2

1. Consider the sample space and events given by the gure

Calculate the conditional probabilities:

(a) P (A|B) 4/23 (b) P (C|A) 19/32 (c) P (B|A ∩ B) 1
(d) P (B|A ∪ B) (e) P (A|A ∪ B ∪ C) (f) P (A ∩ B|A ∪ B) 4/35
23/35 4/11
2. When a company receives an order, there is a probability of 0.42 that its value is over $1000. If an
order is valued at over $1000, then there is a probability of 0.63 that the customer will pay with a
credit card.
(a) What is the probability that the next 3 independent orders will each be valued at over $1000? 0.074
(b) What is the probability that the next order will be valued at over $1000 but will not be paid
with a credit card? 0.1554

3. A card is drawn at random from a pack of cards. Calculate

(a) P (A♡|card from red suit) 1/26
(b) P (heart|card from red suit) 1/2
(c) P (card from black suit) 1/2
(d) P (heart|card from black suit) 0
(e) P (king|card from red suit) 1/13
(f) P (king|red picture card) 1/3

4. A ball is chosen at random from a bag containing 150 balls that are either red or blue and either
dull or shiny. There are 36 red shiny balls and 54 blue balls. What is the probability of the chosen
ball being shiny conditional on it being red? 36/96
What is the probability of the chosen ball being dull conditional on it being red? 60/96

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 5. A manufactured component has its quality graded on its performance, appearance and cost. Each of
these 3 characteristics is graded as either pass or fail. There is a probability of 0.4 that a component
passes on both appearance and cost. There is a probability of 0.31 that a component passes on all
3 characteristics. There is a probability of 0.64 that a component passes on performance. There is
a probability of 0.19 that a component fails on all 3 characteristics. There is a probability of 0.06
that a component passes on appearance but fails on both performance and cost.
(a) What is the probability that a component passes on cost but fails on both performance and
appearance? 0.02
(b) If a component passes on both appearance and cost, what is the probability that it passes on
all 3 characteristics? 0.775

6. Two cards are chosen from a pack of cards without replacement. Calculate the probabilities:
(a) Both are picture cards. 11/221
(b) Both are from red suits. 25/102
(c) One card is from a red suit and one card is from a black suit. 26/51 (first can be red or black)
Repeat the above calculation when the second drawing is made with replacement.
Compare your answers in the 2 cases.

7. Show that if the events A and B are independent events, then so are the events
(a) A and B ′ (b) A′ and B (c) A′ and B ′

8. Suppose that an insurance company insures its clients for ood damage to the property. Can the
company reasonably expect that the claims from its clients will be independent of each other?

9. (a) If a fair die is rolled 5 times, what is the probability that the numbers obtained are all even
numbers? 1/32
(b) If a fair die is rolled 3 times, what is the probability that the 3 numbers obtained are all
dierent? 5/9

10. (Monty Hall problem) Suppose you are on a game show, and you are given the choice of three doors:
Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say Door 1, and the host, who
knows what is behind the doors, opens another door, say Door 3, which has a goat. He then says to
you, "Do you want to pick Door 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? No because 2/3 > 1/2

11. (MATLAB)
(a) Simulate a play of the Monty Hall problem.
(b) Simulate a series of 100 plays of the Monty Hall problem without switching your choice in all
plays. What is the percentage of winning?
(c) Simulate a series of 100 plays of the Monty Hall problem with switching your choice in all
plays. What is the percentage of winning?

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(d) Simulate a series of 100 plays of the Monty Hall problem with randomly switching or not
switching your choice in all plays. What is the percentage of winning?
(e) What is the conclusion? Compare the conclusion with your answer to Exercise 10 above.