Professional Documents
Culture Documents
5HYHQXHVLQ&RQGLWLRQVRI6KDGRZ(FRQRP\
0\NROD'\YDN 1DWDOLD3RUSO\WV\D =RU\DQD/RERGLQD
Department of Computer Science Department of omputer Science S.I.Yurii Department of Finance
Ternopil National Economic University Ternopil National Economic University Ternopil National Economic University
7HUQRSLO8NUDLQH 7HUQRSLO8NUDLQH 7HUQRSLO8NUDLQH
PG\#WQHXHGXXD RFKHUHWQ\XNQ#JPDLOFRP ]RU\DQDP\N#XNUQHW
/\XGP\OD+RQFKDU 9LNWRU2VWURYHUNKRY <XULL0DVO\LDN
Department of Computer Science Faculty of Economics and Management Department of Computer Science
Ternopil National Economic University Ternopil National Economic University Ternopil National Economic University
7HUQRSLO8NUDLQH 7HUQRSLO8NUDLQH 7HUQRSLO8NUDLQH
OKRQFKDU#WQHXHGXXD YRVWURYHUNKRY#WQHXHGXXD \XUDPDVXD#JPDLOFRP
Abstract²7KHWDVNRILGHQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHLQWHUYDOGLVFUHWH WKH SRWHQWLDO YDOXH RI UHYHQXH ZLWK WKH VKDGRZ FRPSRQHQW
G\QDPLF PRGHO LV FRQVLGHUHG LQ WKH SDSHU )RU EXLOGLQJ VXFK WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW ZKLFK FDQ EH HVWDEOLVKHG E\ H[SHUWV ,Q
PRGHOV LW LV SURSRVHG WR XVH D PHWKRG RI VWUXFWXUDO WKLV FDVH WKH ORZHU ERXQG RI UHYHQXHV FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG
LGHQWLILFDWLRQZKLFKLVEDVHGRQWKHDQDORJ\ZLWKWKHIRUDJLQJ EDVHG RQ VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD $QG WKH XSSHU ERXQG E\ WDNLQJ
EHKDYLRU RI WKH KRQH\EHH FRORQ\ ,W LV SURSRVHG WR XVH WKLV LQWR DFFRXQW WKH VKDGRZ FRPSRQHQWV EDVHG RQ WKH DQDO\VLV
PHWKRG IRU EXLOGLQJ DQ LQWHUYDO GLVFUHWH G\QDPLF PRGHO IRU E\ WKH H[SHUWV $V D UHVXOW WKH UHDO DPRXQW RI EXGJHW
SUHGLFWLRQ RI EXGJHW UHYHQXHV LQ FRQGLWLRQV RI VKDGRZ UHYHQXHV ZLOO EH FDOFXODWHG LQ WKH LQWHUYDO IRUP ZLWK WKH
HFRQRP\ 7KH EXLOW PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO LV VXLWDEOH IRU JXDUDQWHHG DFFXUDF\ GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ
FDOFXODWLQJ WKH EXGJHW DW WKH PDFUR DQG PLFUR OHYHOV ,W LV
WKHLQWHUYDOERXQGV7KHWKHRUHWLFDOEDVLVIRUWKLVDSSURDFKLV
VLPSOHHQRXJKWRDGMXVWWKHPRGHOIRUVSHFLILFFRQGLWLRQV
WKH LQWHUYDO DULWKPHWLF DQG PHWKRGV RI WKH LQWHUYDO GDWD
Keywords— interval discrete dynamic model, structural DQDO\VLV>@
identification, budget, shadow economy, difference equation, 7KH DGYDQWDJHV RI WKLV DSSURDFK FRPSDUHG WR VWRFKDVWLF
interval data. RQHDUHLWLVEDVHGRQVPDOOGDWDVDPSOHVLWGRHVQRWUHTXLUH
D SULRUL LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH UDQGRP YDULDEOH GLVWULEXWLRQ
, ,1752'8&7,21 ODZIRUILQGLQJWKHSDUDPHWHUVHVWLPDWHVLWHQVXUHVILQGLQJRI
2QH RI WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW EXGJHW LQGLFDWRUV LV LWV JXDUDQWHHG ERXQGV RI SRVVLEOH YDOXHV RI WKH HVWLPDWHG
UHYHQXHV>@,PSRUWDQWIDFWRUVIRULWVIRUPDWLRQDUHJURVV SDUDPHWHUV 7KH GLVDGYDQWDJH RI WKH LQWHUYDO DQDO\VLV
GRPHVWLFSURGXFW*'3RIILFLDOZLWKRXWVKDGRZHFRQRP\ PHWKRGVLVREWDLQLQJRIURXJKHVWLPDWHVWKDWFDQEHUHILQHGLI
SDUW WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW SRSXODWLRQ LQFRPH DQG ILQDQFLDO DGGLWLRQDOGDWDLVREWDLQHG7KHEDVLFVRILQWHUYDODULWKPHWLF
UHVXOWV RI WKH HQWHUSULVHV EHIRUH WD[DWLRQ >@ :KHQ DQGPHWKRGVRIWKHLQWHUYDOGDWDDQDO\VLVDUHGHVFULEHGLQWKH
SODQQLQJ D EXGJHW LPSRUWDQW LV LWV SUHGLFWLRQ EDVHG RQ D SDSHUV > @ 1XPHURXV DSSOLFDWLRQV RI WKHVH
PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO RI WKH G\QDPLFV RI WKH UHYHQXH PHWKRGVIRUPRGHOLQJRIHFRQRPLFSURFHVVHVDUHUHSUHVHQWHG
JHQHUDWLRQ SURFHVV ,Q WKLV FDVH WKH UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHOV DUH RQ WKH ZHE UHVRXUFHV RI WKH $SSOLHG 0DWKHPDWLFV
XQVXLWDEOH EHFDXVH WKH\ GR QRW WDNH WKH LQHUWLD RI UHYHQXH 'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH$OEHUW/XGZLJ¶V8QLYHUVLW\RI)UHLEXUJ
JHQHUDWLRQSURFHVV>@LQWRDFFRXQW 7KLVDSSURDFKLVSURSRVHGWREHXVHGIRUPRGHOLQJRIWKH
7KH PDWKHPDWLFDO WRRO WKDW WDNHV WKH LQHUWLD RI WKLV EXGJHWUHYHQXHVG\QDPLFVLQWKHSDSHU
SURFHVVLQWRDFFRXQWLVGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQVRUWKHLUGLVFUHWH
DQDORJV LQ WKH IRUP RI GLIIHUHQFH HTXDWLRQV $W WKH VDPH ,, 67$7(0(172)7+(352%/(0
WLPHNQRZQPHWKRGVIRUEXLOGLQJVXFKPRGHOVDUHEDVHGRQ /HW WKH G\QDPLFV RI EXGJHW UHYHQXHV IRU GLVFUHWH
DVVXPSWLRQ DERXW WKH GHWHUPLQLVWLF RU VWRFKDVWLF UHODWLRQ PRPHQWV RI WLPH EH GHVFULEHG E\ D OLQHDU GLIIHUHQFH
EHWZHHQ UHYHQXHV DQG PDLQ IDFWRUV RI WKHLU JHQHUDWLRQ HTXDWLRQLQVXFKDJHQHUDOYLHZ>@
2IWHQ WKH\ GR QRW WDNH WKH G\QDPLFV RI WKLV UHODWLRQ LQWR
DFFRXQW $SSOLFDWLRQRI WKHGHWHUPLQLVWLFDSSURDFKGRHV QRW
vk a a vk d ad vk
DOORZ WR WDNH WKH VWUXFWXUDO DQG SDUDPHWULF XQFHUWDLQW\ RI
HFRQRPLFPDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO RI UHYHQXHV JHQHUDWLRQ n
G\QDPLFVLQWRDFFRXQW ¦ b j b j u j k d b j d u j k
j
7KH VWRFKDVWLF DSSURDFK SURYLGHV EXLOGLQJ RI PRUH
UHDOLVWLF PRGHOV RI WKH LQIOXHQFH RI WKH PDLQ IDFWRUV RQ
ZKHUH vk LV SUHGLFWHG YDOXH RI UHYHQXH DW k WK SHULRG RI
UHYHQXHV LQ G\QDPLFV +RZHYHU LW UHTXLUHV ODUJH GDWD
VDPSOHVIRUHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHSDUDPHWHUVIRUUDQGRPYDULDEOH WLPH v k d v k DUH YDOXHV RI UHYHQXH DW SUHYLRXV SHULRGV
GLVWULEXWLRQODZVQHHGHGWRHVWDEOLVKFRQILGHQFHLQWHUYDOV> RI WLPH k-d,…,k-1 d LV RUGHU RI GLIIHUHQFH HTXDWLRQ
@,QDGGLWLRQGXHWRWKHG\QDPLFVRIIDFWRUVRILQIOXHQFHRQ a a a d b j b j b j d DUH LWV XQNQRZQ SDUDPHWHUV
UHYHQXHV WKH HIIHFWV RI YDULRXV H[WHUQDO IDFWRUV VXFK DV
FKDQJHVLQWKHSROLWLFDOVLWXDWLRQRUWD[SROLF\WKHVDPSOHV u j k d u j k DUH YDOXHV RI j±WK LQIOXHQFH IDFWRUV DW
RI WLPH VHULHV ZLOO EH KHWHURJHQHRXV $OVR WKH TXDQWLWDWLYH UHOHYDQWSHULRGVRIWLPH
HVWLPDWHVRIWKHUHYHQXHVLGHRQWKHRQHKDQGDUHVWDWLVWLFDO
GDWDREWDLQHGIRUVSHFLILFFRQGLWLRQVDQGRQWKHRWKHUKDQG 7REXLOGDGLVFUHWHG\QDPLFPRGHOLWLVQHFHVVDU\WR
LGHQWLI\ LWV VWUXFWXUH LQFOXGLQJ WKH RUGHU RI D GLIIHUHQFH
,(((
HTXDWLRQLQWKHWDVNRIVWUXFWXUDOLGHQWLILFDWLRQ>@ DQDO\VLV DUH XVHG ,Q SDUWLFXODU SURFHGXUHV RI UDQGRP
([LVWLQJ PHWKRGV RI VWUXFWXUDO LGHQWLILFDWLRQ DUH EDVHG RQ VHDUFK RI XQNQRZQ SDUDPHWHUV YDOXHV a a ad
WKHSULQFLSOHVRILQGXFWLYHPRGHOLQJ>@$WWKHVDPH b j b j b j d >@
WLPH WKHVH PHWKRGV DUH QRW VXLWDEOH LQ FDVH RI XVLQJ WKH
LQWHUYDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI GDWD 7KHUHIRUH LW LV SURSRVHG WR 0HQWLRQHGPHWKRGVDQGWKHLUUHDOL]DWLRQDUHGHVFULEHGLQ
XVHEHHFRORQ\EHKDYLRUDOPRGHOV>@IRUVWUXFWXUDO SDSHUV>@
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQFH HTXDWLRQ 'XULQJ WKH VWUXFWXUDO
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ SURFHGXUH LW LV QHFHVVDU\ WR H[HFXWH WKH
SURFHGXUHRISDUDPHWHUVLGHQWLILFDWLRQ>@7RGRWKLV ,,, ,'(17,),&$7,212)%8'*(75(9(18(602'(/,1
LWLVQHFHVVDU\WRXVHWKHGDWDIURPSUHYLRXVSHULRGV%DVHG &21',7,2162)6+$'2:(&2120<
RQ WKH FRQGXFWHG DQDO\VLV LW ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG WKDW WKH PRVW 7KXV EDVHG RQ GHVFULEHG PHWKRG OHW XV EXLOG LQWHUYDO
DFFHSWDEOH IRUP RI LQSXW GDWD UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ IRU PRGHO RI G\QDPLFV RI UHYHQXHV XQGHU FRQGLWLRQ RI WKUHH
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI PRGHO RI EXGJHW UHYHQXHV G\QDPLFV LV LQIOXHQFH IDFWRUV *'3 RIILFLDO ZLWKRXW VKDGRZ HFRQRP\
LQWHUYDOIRUP>@ SDUW WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW SRSXODWLRQ LQFRPH DQG ILQDQFLDO
6R WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI HQVXULQJ WKH UHVXOWVRIWKHHQWHUSULVHVEHIRUHWD[DWLRQ)RUVLPSOLILFDWLRQ
DFFXUDF\ RI PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO ZLWKLQ WKH HUURUV RI OHWXVFRQVLGHUWKHYDOXHVRIWKHVHIDFWRUVDVGHWHUPLQHGRQHV
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH EXGJHW UHYHQXH XVLQJ VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD QRW LQWHUYDO RQHV 8QFHUWDLQW\ LV WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW LQ
ORZHU LQWHUYDO ERXQG DQG WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH VKDGRZ EXGJHWUHYHQXHLQWKHLQWHUYDOIURPEHFDXVHRIVKDGRZSDUW
FRPSRQHQWV XSSHU LQWHUYDO ERXQG WKH SUHGLFWHG YDOXH RI LQIOXHQFH7KHLQSXWGDWDLVUHSUHVHQWHGLQWDEOH
UHYHQXH DW k WK SHULRG RI WLPH LV UHSUHVHQWHG LQ VXFK ,QLWLDOO\WKHUHVHDUFKZDVFRQGXFWHGXVLQJGDWDRI
LQWHUYDOIRUP \HDU
7$%/(, ,1387'$7$
,Q WKH ILJ WKHUH LV WKH UHVXOW RI SUHGLFWLRQ RI EXGJHW )RU WKLV SXUSRVH REWDLQHG LQWHUYDO PRGHO ZDV DSSOLHG
UHYHQXHV IRU WKLV PRGHO IRU \HDU ZLWK JXDUDQWHHG IRUSUHGLFWLRQIRU\HDU3UHGLFWHGE\WKHPRGHOYDOXHV
DFFXUDF\ ZLWKLQ REWDLQHG EXGJHW UHYHQXHV DQG WKRVH RQHV ZHUH FRPSDUHG ZLWK UHDO RQHV WKDW ZHUH REWDLQHG EDVHG RQ
WKDW WDNH WKH VKDGRZ FRPSRQHQW LQWR DFFRXQW 3UHGLFWHG VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD WDNLQJ WKH VKDGRZ FRPSRQHQW LQWR DFFRXQW
YDOXHV DUH ZLWKLQ JLYHQ VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD DQG GDWD WKDW WDNHV 7R EXLOG WKH SUHGLFWLRQ LQWHUYDO HVWLPDWHV RI EXGJHW
VKDGRZ FRPSRQHQW LQWR DFFRXQW $W WKH VDPH WLPH LW LV UHYHQXHV IRU ILUVW IRXU PRQWKV ZLWK HUURU ZHUH XVHG
LPSRUWDQWWRYDOLGDWHREWDLQHGPRGHOXVLQJGDWDWKDWZDVQRW 7KHUHVXOWRIFRPSDULVRQLVUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHILJ
XVHGIRULWVLGHQWLILFDWLRQ
>@ $ .KDQ : % +LOGUHWK %XGJHW WKHRU\ LQ WKH SXEOLF VHFWRU
*UHHQZRRG3XEOLVKLQJ*URXS
>@ $* ,YDNKQHQNR /RQJWHUP IRUHFDVWLQJ DQG PDQDJHPHQW RI
FRPSOH[V\VWHPV.\LY8NUDLQH7HNKQɿNDLQ5XVVLDQ
>@ ( :DOWHU / 3URQ]DWR ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ RI SDUDPHWULF PRGHOV IURP
H[SHULPHQWDOGDWD6SULQJHU9HUODJ
>@ 0'\YDN$3XNDV2.R]DN³7ROHUDQFHHVWLPDWLRQRISDUDPHWHUV
VHWRIPRGHOVFUHDWHGRQH[SHULPHQWDOGDWD´LQ3URFRI,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RQIHUHQFH RQ 0RGHUQ 3UREOHPV RI 5DGLR (QJLQHHULQJ
7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQG &RPSXWHU6FLHQFH 7&6(7 SS
>@ 13RUSO\WV\D0'\YDN ,6SLYDN ,9R\W\XN³0DWKHPDWLFDODQG
DOJRULWKPLF IRXQGDWLRQV IRU LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH PHWKRG IRU
VWUXFWXUH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI LQWHUYDO GLIIHUHQFH RSHUDWRU EDVHG RQ
IXQFWLRQLQJRIEHHFRORQ\´LQ3URFRIWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFH
7KH ([SHULHQFH RI 'HVLJQLQJ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQ RI &$' 6\VWHPV LQ
)LJ ,QWHUYDOGLVFUHWHG\QDPLFPRGHORIEXGJHWUHYHQXHVEXLOWEDVHGRQ 0LFURHOHFWURQLFV&$'60SS
GDWDRI\HDUIURPWDEOH
>@ 1 2FKHUHWQ\XN 0 '\YDN 7 '\YDN , 9R\W\XN ³6WUXFWXUH
LGHQWLILFDWLRQRILQWHUYDOGLIIHUHQFHRSHUDWRUIRUFRQWUROWKHSURGXFWLRQ
SURFHVVRIGU\ZDOO´LQ3URFRIWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQWKH
([SHULHQFH RI 'HVLJQLQJ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQ RI &$' 6\VWHPV LQ
0LFURHOHFWURQLFV&$'60SS
>@ $3 9RVKFKLQLQ ³,QWHUYDO GDWD DQDO\VLV GHYHORSPHQW DQG
SHUVSHFWLYHV´ ,QGXVWULDO /DERUDWRU\ YRO QR SS ±
LQ5XVVLDQ
>@ * $OHIHOG ³,QWHUYDO DQDO\VLV WKHRU\ DQG DSSOLFDWLRQV´ -RXUQDO RI
&RPSXWDWLRQDO DQG $SSOLHG 0DWKHPDWLFV YRO SS
>@ 0 '\YDN 9 0DQ]KXOD 2 .R]DN ³1HZ PHWKRG WROHUDQFH
HVWLPDWLRQRIWKHSDUDPHWHUVVHWRILQWHUYDOPRGHOEDVHGRQVDWXUDWHG
EORFN RI ,6/$(´ LQ 3URF RI WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ ³7KH
([SHULHQFH RI 'HVLJQLQJ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQ RI &$' 6\VWHPV LQ
0LFURHOHFWURQLFV´&$'60SS
>@ 0'\YDN$3XNDV³&ULWHULRQRIGHVLJQRIH[SHULPHQWVIRUWDVNVRI
GHFLVLRQ VXSSRUW LQWHUYDO PRGHO FUHDWLRQ´ LQ 3URF RI WKH 7KLUG
)LJ 5HVXOWRISUHGLFWLRQRIEXGJHWUHYHQXHVIRU\HDUFRPSDULVRQ :RUNVKRS ,((( ,QWHOOLJHQW 'DWD $FTXLVLWLRQ DQG $GYDQFHG
RI SUHGLFWHG EXGJHW G\QDPLFV RI \HDU ZLWK VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD DQG GDWD &RPSXWLQJ 6\VWHPV 7HFKQRORJ\ DQG $SSOLFDWLRQV ,'$$&6¶
WDNLQJVKDGRZFRPSRQHQWLQWRDFFRXQW SS
>@ 0'\YDN13RUSO\WV\D ,%RULYHWV06K\QNDU\N,PSURYLQJWKH
$V ZH FDQ VHH REWDLQHG LQWHUYDO PRGHO RI G\QDPLFV RI FRPSXWDWLRQDOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHSDUDPHWULFLGHQWLILFDWLRQPHWKRG
EXGJHW UHYHQXHV UHIOHFWV UHDO EXGJHW G\QDPLFV ZLWK IRU LQWHUYDO GLVFUHWH G\QDPLF PRGHOV LQ 3URF WK ,QW &RQI RQ
,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6FLHQWLILF DQG 7HFKQLFDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ &RPSXWHU
JXDUDQWHHGDFFXUDF\WKDWLVLWLVDGHTXDWH 6FLHQFHVDQG,QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJLHV&6,7SS
7KXV LW LV D PHWKRGRORJLFDO EDVLV IRU SUHGLFWLRQ RI >@ 0 '\YDN 1 3RUSO\WV\D < 0DVO\LDN 1 .DVDWNLQD ³0RGLILHG
EXGJHW IRU QH[W \HDUV $GYDQWDJH RI VXFK PRGHO LV DUWLILFLDO EHH FRORQ\ DOJRULWKP IRU VWUXFWXUH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI PRGHOV
RIREMHFWVZLWKGLVWULEXWHGSDUDPHWHUVDQGFRQWURO´LQ3URFWK,QW
SRVVLELOLW\RILWVVLPSOHDGMXVWPHQWIRURWKHUFRQGLWLRQV,WLV &RQIRQ([SHULHQFHRI'HVLJQLQJDQG$SSOLFDWLRQRI&$'6\VWHPV
HQRXJK WR VHW UHVXOW RI DFWLYLW\ IRU ILUVW IRXU PRQWKV RI LQ0LFURHOHFWURQLFV&$'60SS±
EXGJHW\HDU >@ * $OHIHOG - +HU]EHUJHU ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR LQWHUYDO FRPSXWDWLRQ
$FDGHPLFSUHVV
,9 &21&/86,21 >@ 5(0RRUH5HOLDELOLW\LQFRPSXWLQJWKHUROHRILQWHUYDOPHWKRGVLQ
VFLHQWLILFFRPSXWLQJ(OVHYLHU
%DVHG RQ VHWWKHRUHWLFDO DSSURDFK DQG LQWHUYDO GDWD >@ 5(0RRUH5%.HDUIRWW0-&ORXG0,QWURGXFWLRQWRLQWHUYDO
DQDO\VLVLQWHUYDOPRGHORIG\QDPLFVRIVWDWHEXGJHWUHYHQXHV DQDO\VLV6LDP
KDV EHHQ EXLOW LQ WKH SDSHU ,W JLYHV SRVVLELOLW\ WR SUHGLFW >@ $*,YDNKQHQNR7KHLQGXFWLYHPHWKRGRIVHOIRUJDQL]LQJPRGHOVRI
G\QDPLFVRIEXGJHWUHYHQXHVGHSHQGHGRQ*'3SRSXODWLRQ FRPSOH[ V\VWHPV .\LY 8NUDLQH 1DXNRYD GXPND
LQFRPH DQG ILQDQFLDO UHVXOWV RI WKH HQWHUSULVHV EHIRUH LQ5XVVLDQ
>@ 9 6WHSDVKNR 2 %XOJDNRYD 9 =RVLPRY ³+\EULG DOJRULWKPV RI
WD[DWLRQZLWKJXDUDQWHHGDFFXUDF\2EWDLQHGPRGHOLVVLPSOH PRGHOV¶ VHOIRUJDQL]DWLRQ IRU SUHGLFWLRQ RI FRPSOH[ SURFHVVHV´
IRUDGMXVWPHQWIRUVSHFLILFHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQV ,QGXFWLYH PRGHOLQJ RI WKH FRPSOH[ V\VWHPV YRO SS
LQ8NUDLQLDQ
>@ 6 <HILPHQNR 9 6WHSDVKNR ³,QWHOOLJHQW UHFXUUHQW$QGSDUDOOHO
5()(5(1&(6 FRPSXWLQJ IRU VROYLQJ LQGXFWLYH PRGHOLQJ SUREOHPV´ WK
>@ , &KXJXQRY 9 0DNRJRQ ³%XGJHW SROLF\ XQGHU HFRQRPLF ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH 2Q &RPSXWDWLRQDO 3UREOHPV RI (OHFWULFDO
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ´(NRQRPLFQLM&DVRSLV;;,(FRQRPLF$QQDOV;;, (QJLQHHULQJ&3((SS
SS >@ ' .DUDERJD % %DVWXUN ³$ SRZHUIXO DQG HIILFLHQW DOJRULWKP IRU
>@ 7 %RJROLE ³%XGJHWDU\ V\VWHP RI 8NUDLQH D QHZ UHDOLW\ DQG JOREDO QXPHULFDO IXQFWLRQ RSWLPL]DWLRQ DUWLILFLDO EHH FRORQ\ $%&
FKDOOHQJHV´ (NRQRPLFQLM &DVRSLV;;, (FRQRPLF $QQDOV;;, DOJRULWKP´ -RXUQDO RI *OREDO 2SWLPL]DWLRQ YRO SS
SSLQ5XVVLDQ
>@ ==VROW'DUYDV%:ROI *XQWUDP$QDQDWRP\RILQFOXVLYHJURZWK
>@ .DUDERJD ' *RUNHPOL % 2]WXUN & .DUDERJD 1 ³$
LQ(XURSH%UXHJHO
FRPSUHKHQVLYH VXUYH\ DUWLILFLDO EHH FRORQ\ $%& DOJRULWKP DQG
>@ $ 5RVH 5HVXOWVRULHQWDWHG EXGJHW SUDFWLFH LQ 2(&' FRXQWULHV
DSSOLFDWLRQV´$UWLILFLDO ,QWHOOLJHQFH 5HYLHZYRO SS
/RQGRQ2YHUVHDV'HYHORSPHQW,QVWLWXWH