Small Aircraft Transportation System

NASA Office of
Aero-Space Technology
NASA Aero-Space Enterprise

National General Aviation Roadmap
Small Aircraft Transportation System
Dr. Bruce J. Holmes

NASA General Aviation Program Office
SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 1
Outline
NASA Office of
The “Golden Rule” of the information age is

“Time is the Scarce Commodity.”
Early in the 21st century,

transportation demand will soar beyond supply.
The Millennial Opportunity:

SATS creates more time for more people.
••Small
SmallAircraft
AircraftTransportation
TransportationSystem
System(SATS)
(SATS)
Concept
Concept
••National
NationalMarket
MarketOpportunities
Opportunitiesand
andChallenges
Challenges
••Suggested
SuggestedIndustry
IndustryActions
Actions

Solving 21st Century Transportation Challenges
NASA Office of
The Small Aircraft Transportation System

is a safe travel alternative
that frees people and products from today’s system
delays
creating access to more communities in less time.
The Problem
NASA Office of
Executive Summary:
PROBLEM: The nation’s 21st century transportation demand cannot be satisfied by the
planned investments in hub-and-spoke and highway systems alone*.
SOLUTION: The Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) concept can satisfy a
large portion of the demand, relieving the pressure on existing ground and air systems.
ACTION NEEDED: National support and coordination is necessary for SATS as a key
element in an integrated national Aeronautics-Transportation investment strategy.

National General Aviation Roadmap Goal
NASA Office of
”Enable
”Enabledoorstep-to-destination
doorstep-to-destinationtravel
travelat at44times
timesthe
thespeed
speedof
ofhighways
highways
Throughout the nation’s suburban, rural, and remote communities
Throughout the nation’s suburban, rural, and remote communities
Served
ServedbybyPublic
PublicUse
Uselanding
landingfacilities."
facilities."
Market Penetration
100
> 90%
Market
Served
75
SATS
Accessibility
(% of
Public Use 50
Airports
Equipped)
25 25%
Market
Served
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
~1,000 Landing Facilities >5,400 Landing Facilities
2007 2022

Strategic Planning Tenets
NASA Office of
• The innate human desire for personal command of time and space
creates demand for distributed (personal) transportation systems.
• The Information Age will usher in a new magnitude for the value of
time.
• The Baby Boom generation’s peak spending (traveling) period
coincides with saturation of the hub-spoke airway and interstate
highway systems.
• The Third Migration Wave (beyond the suburbs), coupled with tele-
commuting, creates new transportation demand and challenges.
• The revolution in digital bandwidth redistributes intelligence from
centralized to distributed system nodes, enabling the aviation
transition from centralized to distributed air traffic management (free
flight).
The Pig in the Python
NASA Office of
As per capita income rises,

per capita annual travel rises,
personal daily travel time budgets remain constant,
and
high-speed modes gain market share
(Schafer and Victor, Sci. Amer., Oct. 1997)
Auto 25%
9% 43%
3% 9%
Bus 20% 6%
53%
54% 29% 26%
Rail
23%
High-Speed 5.5 Trillion pass.-km 23.4 Trillion pass.-km 53 Trillion pass.-km
Transport
1960 1990 2020
Global Travel Mode Shares will be driven by
the largest population and spending wave in history:
The Baby Boom
The Third Migration Wave
NASA Office of
1. From the farm to the city
2. From the city to the suburbs
3. From the suburbs to rural America
55
50
45
Percent of
U.S. 40
Population
35
30
1998
25
1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Innovation and Cost Life Cycles
(Trends follow classic “S-Curve” for innovations, Hugh B. Stewart, Recollecting the Future, 1988)
NASA Office of
Cost & Market Penetration Life Cycles
Innovation Growth Maturity

100 100
90% 99% 99.9%
90 90
80 80
MarketPenetration,%
(20% perdoubling of
70 70
Cost Reduction, %
60 60
volume)
50%
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
Young, Urban, Professional Middle-Class, Wage-Earner Older, Rural, Lower-Income
10 Leader Market Follower Market Die-Hard Market
10
0.1% 1% 10%
0 0
0 7 14 21 28 35 42
Time, Years

Life Cycle of the Piston Aircraft Market
NASA Office of
Total Piston Sales

Compared with the Theoretical "S" Curve
350,000
300,000
250,000
Cumulative
200,000
Piston Sales
150,000
100,000
Actual Total Piston Sales
50,000
Model regressed from '51-'95
0
Itzhak Gartenberg, Yale University

Langley Aerospace Research Summer Scholar, 1999
Year

(R)evolutions in Higher Speed Travel
What is Next? More Speed to More Destinations
NASA Office of
The “Atomic Structure” of Business Innovation Cycles
GAP Engines
Relative
Market 90%
VDL, ACR
Growth
GPS
Small
Aircraft
Jet Transports
90%
Transportation
10%
System?
First VORs
90% Jetliners Displace Props

10%
DC-3
Assembly Line
90% Propliners Displace Cars

10%
Model T
10% Cars Displace Horses
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Small Aircraft Transportation System Mobility
“. . .doorstep-to-destination at four times the speed of highways. . .”
NASA Office of
SATS reduces travel times,

while highways and Hub-and-spoke travel PIT
times DAY Airlines
will continue to increase.
General Aviation
Comparison of Average Speeds for GA and Airlines PHF
300
SATS
Average Speed Over GCD
250
Distance, mph
200 General
Aviation • Hub-Spoke: OAG times for 28
destinations
150
• General Aviation: time-
optimized flight plans
100
Hub-Spoke • Including intermodal penalties
(:45 +:45 for airline & :30+:30
50 for GA departure & arrivals)
Highways
• No GA destination benefit (for
0 proximity of airports)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 • SATS with new GAP engines:
GCD Distance, s.m. costs equal current General
Aviation at 2 times the speed.
SATS Increases Accessibility and Mobility
(“. . .creating access to more communities in less time. . .”)
NASA Office of
Expanded Accessibility
to several times
more destinations
Fully utilized 5,400 public-use near-all-

weather landing facilities can increase
theoretical NAS Throughput by more
than an order of magnitude
Improved Mobility saving more

Of 5,400 public-use airports, only 715 (13%) travelers more time
have precision instrument approaches (ILS)
Current States Roles in SATS Planning
NASA Office of
• SATS “Leader” States Committed

to Support Program Planning
1. Virginia
2. Florida
3. Nebraska
4. North Dakota
5. Oklahoma
6. Kansas
7. Illinois
8. Indiana
9. Wisconsin
10. Washington
• Aerospace States Association
SATS Resolution, July, 1999
• Leveraged Research Funding:
– EPSCoR funding leveraged
(e.g., Nebraska, Kansas)
– NASA Space Grant Program
potential leveraging
– SBIR / STTR leveraging

All-Weather Accessibility Means Economic Development
NASA Office of
14 State of Michigan Study
12
Economic Benefit,
Millions of Dollars
10
8
6
4
2
0 VFR Airport, VFR Airport, IFR Airport,
Runway < 5,500 ft Runway > 5,500 ft Runway > 5,500 ft
VFR - Visual Flight Rules

IFR - Instrument Flight Rules

HITS System
Lowers Cost, Minimizes Dislocation, and Increases Safety
NASA Office of
A Highway in The Sky (HITS) DGPS-based approach guidance system may

save over 49 acres per runway end compared to installing new ILS*
• Avoids land and system acquisition costs

• Minimizes dislocation of existing land holders
• Increases safety for operators and community
• Reduces noise outside of airport boundary
2,500’
Runway Protection Zone (RPZ)

ILS
78.9 acres
1,000’ 1,700’
Runway DGPS
500’ 1,010’ 1,750’
29.5 acres
*FAA Advisory Circular “Airport Design” AC 150/5300-13 CHG 4 Chapter 2 “Airport Geometry” Table 2-4

SATS Accessibility = Economic Development
NASA Office of
Example for one state
Virginia General Aviation Today SATS

SATSwill
willenable
enable~90%
~90%moremore
• ~$175 Million in Economic Impact accessibility
accessibilityby
byair
airfor
forall
allVirginia’s
Virginia’s
(Primary & Secondary) communities,
communities,expanding
expandingeconomic
economic
• 2,400 jobs from General Aviation opportunities
opportunitiesfor
forall
allregions
regions
(Primary & Secondary)
• 68 Public-Use Airports
(9 Air Carrier)
• 54 Hospital Heliports
• 227 Private Landing Areas
• 4,104 Aircraft
• 15,525 Active Pilots
•• INSTRUMENT
INSTRUMENTLANDING
LANDINGFACILITIES
FACILITIES
•• VISUAL ONLY
VISUAL ONLY

A New Beginning
(Resulting from Current NASA Aeronautics Investments)
NASA Office of
• AGATE Alliance: 70 industry competitors collaborated under NASA leadership to create new, far-
reaching technologies cockpit, airframe manufacturing, and flight training (1994 - 2001)
• Two newcomers represent the first new Single-Engine, Type-Certificated Airplanes in 15 years.
Technologies derived from past 20 years of NASA Aeronautics research.
• Corporate commitments to new products and services signal the long-term potential for payoffs
from these technology strategies
• Highway in the Sky (HITS) capabilities offer potential to deploy GPS/graphically guided approaches
to all virtually all landing sites in the nation, leading to a 21st century Small Aircraft Transportation
System
AGATE/GAP Usher In A New State of the Art
NASA Office of
The New Generation Cockpits

and Aircraft
Cirrus SR-20
Lancair Columbia 300
Williams V-Jet

SATS Is a System Approach to Safe Transportation Utility
NASA Office of
“Smart” Airports Infrastructure Information Age Cockpits
An
Integrated
System Approach
To
Safety
Cyber-Training Safe Utility and Comfort

Technology Investments
NASA Office of
• Intermodal Transportation Systems Engineering

– Program System Engineering
– SATS Space Grant Partnerships
– National Public Outreach
• Digital Airspace Infrastructure

– Airborne Internet
– Smart Landing Facilities
– Runway Independent Aircraft Operations
– Showcase Demonstrations
• Robust Air Vehicles

– Autoflight
– Affordable Manufacturing
– Ultra-Propulsion
– Wireless Cockpit
– Cyber-Tutor

Program Description
NASA Office of
Vehicle Investments “. . .four times

Highway
Airspace & Airports Investments speeds . . .”
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2025
Infrastructure Technologies
Develop Highway in the Sky
Approach technology for use at all Enable State, Local, and Federal
runway ends for the Nation’s public policy decisions to deploy safe
public use landing facilities.
accessibility to 25% of public use
facilities, based on
Vehicle Technologies consumer/community response to
Reduce the AGATE-derived vehicle Showcase Technology Demonstration
life-cycle cost by 25%(minimum
success) to 50% (stretch goal)
Projects.
from AGATE Reference C vehicle.
Demonstrations
SATS Program 2003: VA, FL
2005: Leader States
2007: Regional

Candidate Federal-States SATS Partnership Roles
NASA Office of
Universities
Universities States
States
SATS Policy, Impact Analyses Aviation System/Airport Master Plans
SATS Policy, Impact Analyses Aviation System/Airport Master Plans
SATS
NASA
NASASpace
SpaceGrant
Grant SATSAirport
AirportEquipage
Equipage
Collaboration SBIR, EPSCoR Collaboration
Collaboration SBIR, EPSCoR Collaboration
SATS
SATSR&DR&D
NASA
NASA
Vehicle & Infrastructure Technologies R&T
Vehicle & Infrastructure Technologies R&T
Organize
Organize&&Coordinate
CoordinatePartnerships
Partnerships
Integrate
IntegrateRequirements
Requirements
FAA
FAA
DOT Certification & Regulation
DOT Certification & Regulation
Airports
One-DOT Initiative Airports
One-DOT Initiative Air
Air TrafficServices
Traffic
ITS Services
ITSSynergies
Synergies Flight
FlightStandards
Standards
R&D
R&D
DOC
DOC
U.S. Innovation
U.S. Innovation
Partnership
PartnershipFacilitation
Facilitation
EPSCoT
EPSCoTCollaboration
Collaboration
Industry
Industry
Competitive
CompetitiveSubsystem
SubsystemTechnologies
Technologies
Industry
IndustryStandards
Standards
Transportation
TransportationService
ServiceBusiness
BusinessInfrastructure
Infrastructure
Non-Profit for Partnership Administration
Non-Profit for Partnership Administration
Joint Agency Planning Position
NASA Office of
FAA/NASA Executive Committee

September 8, 1999
FAA Headquarters
Joint Agency Statement
SATS Program Description:

"The Small Aircraft Transportation System concept is a safe travel alternative that
frees people and products from transportation system delays, creating access to
more communities in less time."
Joint NASA-FAA supporting statements:

Ø FAA and NASA are working together to define a SATS operational concept as it
relates to the transportation infrastructure of the U.S. and will begin a NASA funded
research initiative to explore the feasibility and viability of implementing that
concept.
Ø Under the charter of the NASA/FAA Executive Committee, the agencies agree to
form a working group to define the FAA-NASA engagement in SATS program
development and implementation planning

Conclusions
NASA Office of
“The Small Aircraft Transportation System is a safe travel alternative,

Freeing people and products from transportation system delays,
By creating access to more communities in less time.”
• SATS is an investment that preserves America’s options for

mobility and accessibility in an era of saturation of the highway
and hub-and-spoke systems.
• SATS investments build on a solid track record of
accomplishment by American industry working in partnership
with NASA and the FAA.
• SATS strategies strengthen the U.S. knowledge-based industrial
expansion.
• SATS gives people more time = more quality of life.

The Small Aircraft Transportation System is a safe travel alternative,
freeing people and products from transportation system delays,
NASA Office of
by creating access to more communities in less time.

NASA Office of
Backup Charts

MAJOR PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS (4/98-4/99)
NASA Office of
• Program Analysis
– apats.org implementation
– AGATE current & latent market measurement complete (analysis underway)
• Flight Systems Work Package, LaRC
– AGATE Architecture implemented on AGATE 1B
– VDL Mode 2 and 3 Datalink MOPS completed
– Raytheon Bonanza AGATE 1B flight experiments ongoing
• Propulsion Sensors & Controls Work Package, LeRC
– Single Lever Power Control/FADEC initial development completed
– Propulsion management & diagnostic system initial design & testing completed
• Ice Protection Systems, LeRC
– Laminar flow manufacturing tolerances established
– Collaboration with ID&M on integral manufacturing established
– Graphical icing condition avoid & exit products developed
• Integrated Design & Manufacturing Work Package, LaRC
– AGATE material qualification process submitted to Mil HNDBK17
– AGATE Crashworthiness Design Guide published
– AGATE Lightning Protection Design Guide published
• Flight Training Curricula Work Package
– Completed first classes of students in AGATE Unified Instrument-private pilot
curriculum
– Delivered Integrated Cockpit Information System Learning Module CD-ROM
• FAA Team AIR AGATE
– Revised10/26/99
SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: AC’s 23.1309 & 23.1311 completed Figure 28
Industry Successes
NASA Office of
Over 1997, the 1998 industry trends continue a three-year pattern of growth:
• Billings up over 25%
• Deliveries up over 41%
• Single-Engine Piston deliveries up over 58%
• Exports up over 24%
• Used aircraft sales up over 20%
• Student Pilots up over 12%
• Pilot licenses up over 22%
• IFR Ratings up over 37%
• Industry employment up >20%
• General Aviation Total and IFR operations up 2% and 4%, respectively
• 1998 was the safest year on record (for both rates of accidents & fatalities)
• Warren Buffett’s purchase of Executive Jet Aviation and Flight International,
and Toyota’s decision to enter the lightplane market signals long-term
potential for payoffs from NASA technology strategy.

SATS Planning Assumptions
NASA Office of
• Alliance-based program
• Cost-sharing (50/50 model)
• Collaboration for pre-competitive technologies
• Competition for competitive technologies
• FY 2001 to FY 2008 program with major
demonstrations on 2-year centers
• FAA SATS Mission Need Statement influences
NAS Architecture (5.x)
• U.S. industry and States will meet the challenge

Resolution of the Aerospace States Association
NASA Office of
RESOLUTION REGARDING THE PROPOSED
SAFE SMALL AIRCRAFT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM (SATS)
• WHEREAS a variety of forces are converging to reduce the effectiveness of the nation's existing highway and hub-spoke air transport
system to meet the growing needs of short distance, inter and intra-state travel; and
• WHEREAS these forces include the maturing of the hub-spoke air transport system, the increasing gridlock on the nation's highways,
and the increasing value of human time; and
• WHEREAS the nation has an existing infrastructure of 17,000 airports for small, General Aviation Aircraft, of which at least 5,000 could
be modified to meet the nation's emerging short distance transportation needs; and
• WHEREAS the Federal Government, acting through NASA, has undertaken cooperative technology development efforts with the
nation's General Aviation industry to develop a new era of aircraft capable of effectively using these 5,000 airports; and
• WHEREAS the investment in, and control of ground infrastructure associated with such airports is under the jurisdiction of the nation's
State and local authorities; and
• WHEREAS the Federal Government has offered to develop, with State governments, the means to upgrade those 5,000 airports with
new capabilities, such as Global Positioning Systems (GPS), and link them together into a system to be known as the Small Aircraft
Transportation System (SATS); and
• WHEREAS the development of a SATS has the potential to generate transportation-driven economic development benefits; and
• WHEREAS the coordinated development of a SATS would be of substantial benefit to the State governments in meeting the
transportation needs of their citizens; and
• WHEREAS it is the purpose of the Aerospace States Associations to identify, support, and assist in the implementation of aerospace
policies which involve coordination between the Federal and State governments,
• NOW THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Aerospace States Association endorses and supports efforts by the Federal
Government to undertake the planning and implementation associated with the creation of a Small Aircraft Transportation System
(SATS).
Resolved this 19th day of July, 1999 by a unanimous vote of the members voting.
The Honorable Joseph E. Kernan (Lt. Governor, Indiana)

Chair
Life Cycles for Three Generations
Piston Aircraft
NASA Office of
Annual Sales Behavior

for Three Generations of Piston Aircraft
18,000
Actual Growth
rate
16,000
First, Second,
14,000 Third Generation
Growth rates
12,000 Growth rate for
first life cycle
Annual
10,000
Piston Growth rate for
second life cycle
Sales 8,000
Growth rate for
6,000 third life cycle
4,000
2,000
Itzhak Gartenberg, Yale University Year


Piston Aircraft
NASA Office of

18,000
Actual Growth
rate
16,000
First, Second,
Growth rates
first life cycle
Annual
10,000
second life cycle
Sales 8,000
Growth rate for
4,000
2,000


Piston Aircraft
NASA Office of

18,000
Actual Growth
rate
16,000
First, Second,
Growth rates
first life cycle
Annual
10,000
second life cycle
Sales 8,000
Growth rate for
4,000
2,000


Piston Aircraft
NASA Office of

18,000
Actual Growth
rate
16,000
First, Second,
Growth rates
first life cycle
Annual
10,000
second life cycle
Sales 8,000
Growth rate for
4,000
2,000


Piston Aircraft
NASA Office of

18,000
Actual Growth
rate
16,000
First, Second,
Growth rates
first life cycle
Annual
10,000
second life cycle
Sales 8,000
Growth rate for
4,000
2,000


SATS Milestones FY 2000 - 2005
NASA Office of
2000
Validate
ValidateSATS
SATS States
StatesDeploy
Deploy
Concept
Concept&&Architecture
ArchitectureRqmts.
Rqmts. SATS
SATSInfrastructure
Infrastructure
SATS FIS Datalink
SATSMarket
MarketAnalyses
Analyses Communications
Initiate Approaches
SATS Pre-Cursor Establish
EstablishSATS
SATSBaseline
BaselineRequirements
Requirements
Analysis &
NRC Study Identify
Identify
SATS
SATS
GAP Engines Integration Integrate
Integrate&&
Integration Evaluate
Flight Validated Options
Options EvaluateSATS
SATS
Alternatives
Alternatives
AGATE Avionics
& Airframe Technologies
Complete SATS
SATSProducts
Products
Baseline SATS
Initiate Federal-States
SATS Partnership
Architecture, • Infrastructure technologies
Ops Rqmts • Aircraft technologies
Demonstrate
Validate HITS Approaches
Key: Virtual TerPs &
Current
Using VFR Patterns Autoflight
Investments
Future Potential State Demonstrations
Investments
of Integrated SATS Technologies
FY 1999 FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005

Small Aircraft Transportation System

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Small Aircraft Transportation System

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NASA Office of

NASA Aero-Space Enterprise

Small Aircraft Transportation System

Dr. Bruce J. Holmes

The “Golden Rule” of the information age is

Early in the 21st century,

The Millennial Opportunity:

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 2

The Small Aircraft Transportation System

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 4

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 5

As per capita income rises,

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 8

Cost & Market Penetration Life Cycles

Innovation Growth Maturity

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 9

Total Piston Sales

Itzhak Gartenberg, Yale University

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 10

90% Jetliners Displace Props

90% Propliners Displace Cars

10% Cars Displace Horses

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 11

SATS reduces travel times,

Comparison of Average Speeds for GA and Airlines PHF

Fully utilized 5,400 public-use near-all-

Improved Mobility saving more

• SATS “Leader” States Committed

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 14

14 State of Michigan Study

VFR - Visual Flight Rules

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 15

A Highway in The Sky (HITS) DGPS-based approach guidance system may

• Avoids land and system acquisition costs

Runway Protection Zone (RPZ)

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 16

Virginia General Aviation Today SATS

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 17

The New Generation Cockpits

Lancair Columbia 300

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 19

“Smart” Airports Infrastructure Information Age Cockpits

Cyber-Training Safe Utility and Comfort

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 20

• Intermodal Transportation Systems Engineering

• Digital Airspace Infrastructure

• Robust Air Vehicles

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 21

Vehicle Investments “. . .four times

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 22

FAA/NASA Executive Committee

SATS Program Description:

Joint NASA-FAA supporting statements:

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 24

“The Small Aircraft Transportation System is a safe travel alternative,

• SATS is an investment that preserves America’s options for

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 25

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 26

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 27

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 29

SATS_Overview-FAA.ppt: 10/26/99 Figure 30

The Honorable Joseph E. Kernan (Lt. Governor, Indiana)

Annual Sales Behavior

Itzhak Gartenberg, Yale University Year