1 2022/dariusdurian/P2/5 & 2010/H1 CJC Prelim/7(modified)

(a) "ANTIFRAGILE" is a song recorded by South Korean girl group LE SSERAFIM.

Find the number of ways the letters of the word “ANTIFRAGILE” can be arranged if
(i) there are no restrictions, [1]
(ii) F and R must not be next to each other, [2]
(iii) Consonants (N, T, F, R, G, L) and vowels (A, I, E) must alternate. [3]
(b) In an online poll, a proportion p of the voters chose Kazuha as their favourite member of
LE SSERAFIM. A sample of 10 voters are taken at random. The random variable X denotes
the number of voters in the sample who chose Kazuha as their favourite member.

(i) Comment on the suitability of using the binomial probability distribution to model
this situation and state an assumption made. [2]
(ii) Write down an expression for P( X = 4) in terms of p. [1]

(iii) It is given that the value of P( X = 4) is 0.2 and p  0.5 . Show that the value of p
is 0.3 (correct to 1 decimal place). [3]
Qn Suggested Solutions
(a)(i) 11!
Number of ways (with 2 identical As and 2 identical Is) = = 9979200
2! 2!
Why the formula works: In total, there are 11 letters, and if
the letters were considered to be distinct, there are 11! ways
to arrange them. For any arrangement, we can rearrange any
of the 2! permutations of the repeated letter “A” and obtain
the same arrangement. Similarly, we can rearrange of
the 2! permutations of the repeated letter “I” and obtain the
same arrangement. Thus, to account for these repeated
arrangements, we divide by the number of repetitions to
11!
obtain that the total number of permutations is .
2! 2!

In general, the number of permutations of n objects with n1

identical objects of type 1, n2 identical objects of type 2…
n!
and nk identical objects of type k is given by
n1! n2 ! nk !
(a)(ii)
To separate objects, use the slotting method
1. Arrange the other objects in a line
2. Count the slots available
3. Choose the number of slots required
4. Permute the slotted objects

_A_N_T_I_A_G_I_L_E_

10 possible places for F and R to slot

9!
No. of ways to arrange the other 9 letters (with 2 identical As and 2 identical Is) =
2! 2!
10 
No. of ways to choose slots for F and R =  
2
No. of ways to arrange F and R = 2!

9! 10 
No. of ways F and R must be separated =     2! = 8164800
2! 2!  2 

Alternative Method: Complement method (which is recommended to separate 2 objects only)

No. of ways = No restrictions − No. of ways F and R are together

A N T I FR A G I L E

11!
No. of ways to arrange all letters (with 2 identical As and 2 identical Is) = = 9979200
2! 2!
10!
No. of ways to arrange all letters with F and R grouped together =
2! 2! The group of
No. of ways to arrange F and R = 2! letters “FR” is
10! considered as
No. of ways that F and R must be next to each other =  2! = 1814400
2! 2! one object.

No. of ways F and R must be separated = 9979200 − 1814400 = 8164800

(a)(iii) To alternate, the pattern must be CVCVCVCVCVC
where C = consonant and V = vowel

No. of ways to arrange the consonants = 6!

5!
No. of ways to arrange the vowels =
2! 2!
5!
No. of ways to alternate = 6! = 21600
2! 2!

(b)(i) It is suitable as the random variable in this situation has a fixed number of trials, 10,
with two mutually exclusive outcomes: choosing Kazuha as their favourite member or not
choosing Kazuha as their favourite member. Moreover, the probability of a randomly chosen
voter choosing Kazuha as their favourite member is assumed constant at p.

Assumption: Whether a randomly chosen voter choosing Kazuha as their favourite member is
independent of any other voter.
Recall: FIST
Fixed number of trials
Independence
Same/constant probability of success
Two mutually exclusive outcomes

(b)(ii) 10 
P( X = 4) =   p 4 (1 − p)10− 4 = 210 p 4 (1 − p)6
4 Formula can be found in MF26.

(b)(iii) Given: P( X = 4) = 210 p 4 (1 − p)6 = 0.2 , p  0.5

Since p  0.5 , do not need to consider

the other intersection point.

Intermediate workings to be
given in 5 s.f for accuracy.
Intersection Point = (0.29987,0.2)
Thus p = 0.3 (to 1 d.p)