Master´s Thesis Evaluation by the Opponent

Title of the Master´s Thesis:

A Machine Learning Approach to Startup Success Prediction in the Context of Venture Capital Industry

Author of the Master´s Thesis:

Bc. Tereza Kalendová

Goals of the Master´s Thesis:

The goal of the thesis was to analyse factors that predict success of start-ups funded by the venture capitalists
(VCs).

Evaluation:
Criteria Description Max. Points
points
Output Quality Results are well presented, discussed - substantiated, relevant and original
(i.e. novelty produced by the author). They are of high practical/theoretical
relevance. 20 16
Content 70%

Goals The goals of the thesis are evident and accomplished.

10 8

Methodology: Methods are adequate and used correctly in relation to pre-set goals.
20 18

Theory/ Demonstration of an in-depth understanding of the topic area (state-of-the-

Conceptualization: art) including key concepts, terminology, theories, definitions, etc. based on
20 16
a literature survey. Literature review.

Structure: The thesis is a consistent, well-organised logical whole.

Formal requirements 15%

3 3

Terminology: Linguistic and terminological level.

4 4
Formalities: Formal layout and requirements, extent, abstract.
4 4

Citing: Quality of citations and reflection of Ephorus results.

4 2

Presentation Is the presentation itself structured in a clear way? Is it appealing and easy to
document: follow? Does it convey the message efficiently? 5
Delivery 15 %

Presentation Are you conveying the message efficiently and timely? Do you use
skills: appropriate words, speed, tone of voice, gestures, movement etc. to express
your thoughts in a clear manner? 5
 Argumentation: Are you able to readily and briskly react to questions or comments? Are you
able to explain unclear parts and connect comments to relevant places in
your presentation or parts of particular analyses? How well are you able to 5
defend to your ideas and recommendations?

100 0

Other comments:
The author has studied factors predicting the success of start-ups funded by the venture capitalists (VCs). The thesis
is based on a solid review of academic literature. Data on start-ups were mined from the international Crunchbase
database, and the author has worked with more than 900 ths. observations covering years 1970-2013. Using
several statistical approaches (logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, support vector
machine) the author estimates the probability of start-up being acquired or brought to IPO within the 7-year
window. The implications from the conducted analysis recommend using random forest model to predict success
or failure of the start-up and document the importance of several predictors. In overall, this is a well-written thesis
and correctly conducted empirical analysis. At the same time, I also see several sources of improvement. First, the
authors should be more careful when reproducing content (i.e. figures and graphs) from already published works.
Posting screenshots without publisher´s approval is not allowed. Second, the focus of the thesis is rather on
technological start-ups, thus I would welcome more information in this regard. Third, some variables are
questionable, given the period of analysis. How could be internet presence important for firms founded in 1970
(i.e. before the 90s)? How about total amount of aquired VC funding? Discussion of the results in light of the
previously published studies is missing. The implications for the VCs are not discussed deeply. I recommend the
thesis for defence

Questions or comments to be discussed during the thesis defence:

1. How could information about acquired (future) funding (i.e. not about initial firm assets) help VCs in
making a decision whether to finance start-up or not?

2. What kind of variables can really help VCs in making evidence-informed-decision about the funding of a
particular start-up? Can such knowledge be provided by random forest approach?

The name of the Opponent:

doc. Ing. Ondřej Dvouletý, Ph.D., MSc.

The employer of the Opponent:

Department of Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Business Administration, University of Economics, Prague

Date 18.9.2020

Signature of the Opponent:

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