Demography: definition and concepts.

Introduction to the principles and methods

of demography. Sources of population data; population structure and
characteristics, population dynamics and health implications, population structure
and population movement. Census: types, methods, principles and practice.
Applications of census data. Population data and the planning of social services.
Demographic transitions and health/disease patterns and services. Indices of
population, health and development, life table techniques and interpretation of
related indices.
Determinants of population growth and distribution, Sources of demographic data,
Effects of population structure on health, vital registration systems, Measures of
mortality, Differentials in mortality, Migration, National population policy.

DEFINITION OF DEMOGRAPHY
Demography is “the study of the size, territorial distribution, and composition of
population, changes therein, and the components of such changes.” Hauser and
Duncan (1959:2)
Demography is the study of human populations with respect to their size,
structure, and dynamics. For demographers, a population is a group of
individuals that coexist at a point in time and share a defining characteristic such as
residence in the same geographical area. The structure or composition of a
population refers to the distribution of its members by age, sex, and other
characteristics, such as place of residence and marital or health status. The age and
sex structure of a population results from past trends in fertility, mortality, and
migration. Thus, these processes comprise the components of demographic change.
The age and sex structure of a population, in turn, affects birth rates, death rates,
and rates of migration. Changes in status such as getting married or divorced
interact with population structure in a similar way.

POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHARACTERISTIC IS IMPORTANT

A study of the structure and characteristics of population is an important aspect of
the study of population.
As pointed out earlier, the study of population, among other things, attempts to
answer the question: What kind of people is found in any given population and
how do those in one group differ from those in another?
The study of the structure and characteristics of population, which is also known as
the study of the composition of population, covers this aspect of population
studies, which embraces the following basic personal, social and economic
characteristics or attributes of any population: age, sex, race, nationality, religion,
language, marital status, household and family composition, literacy and
educational attainment, employment status, occupation, income, etc.
A population may be distributed into sub-groups, according to each of the
foregoing characteristics. For instance, when sex is considered, the entire
population may be classified into two groups: males or females; when religion is
considered, the entire population may be divided into different religious groups.
The study of population structure and characteristics thus relate to the distribution
of one or more of these characteristics or attributes within a population. Several
interesting questions may be answered as a result of this type of analysis.
For example: What is the proportional distribution of males and females in a given
population? How are children, young adults, and elderly persons distributed in a
population? What percentage of a population is illiterate?
Such a study also aims at finding out and measuring changes if any, in these
characteristics over a period of time.
For instance, according to the 1961 Indian Census, while the population of children
(young dependents) was 41.08 per cent, this percentage was 42.10 in 1971 and
39.55 in 1981.
This indicates that, during a period from 1961-71, there had been an increase in the
proportion of children by 1.02 points or 2.5 per cent and during 1971-81, there had
been a decline in the child population by 2.55 points or 6.06 per cent.
To take another example; in 1961, 24.02 per cent of the total population was
literate, while in 1971, this percentage was 29.46, an increase of 22.6 per cent, and
in 1981 this percentage was 36.17 (excluding the population of Assam and Jammu
and Kashmir).
In addition to studying the changes in population characteristics or attributes over a
period of time, a study of population structure and its composition also takes into
consideration the distribution of these attributes and their comparisons at a point of
time.
For instance, in India and the United States, around 1970, population distribution
according to age indicated that the United States had a lower proportion of persons
under the age of 15 (28.50 per cent) than India (42.10 per cent).
It is, of course, not enough only to study the structure and characteristics of any
population. It is necessary to seek explanations for any changes which may have
occurred and visualise the consequences of these changes.
If it is observed, for instance, that the population of children below the age of 15
has decreased in a certain population, any student of population studies would
definitely want to investigate the reasons for this change. At the same time, he
would ponder over its demographic, social and economic consequences.
Several uses of the study of population structure and characteristic may be
identified:
(1) It helps in an elaborate study of any population and thus makes comparisons
possible.
(2) The data on population structure and characteristics are useful in the
preparation of inventories of human resources, so necessary for effective
developmental planning.
(3) When reliable information on births and deaths is not available from the civil
registration system, it may be obtained by utilising the data on the age-sex
distribution of the population available from a census.
(4) Data on the distribution of population attributes provide material for the study
of the social and economic structure of the population and the changes in this
structure, if any.
Characteristics or attributes, which are included in the study of the structure and
characteristics of the population, are sometimes classified into two groups:
ascribed characteristics and achieved characteristics.
Ascribed characteristics may be considered to be biologically or culturally
assigned and the individual cannot exercise his own choice.
These include such characteristics as age, sex, race and mother tongue. Such
characteristics as nationality, religion (and caste) may, of course, be later changed
by an exercise of an individual’s choice, though he/she is born with them, and in
that sense may be considered to be ascribed characteristics.
The achieved characteristics, on the other hand, are those which are normally open
to the individual’s choice. Examples of such achieved characteristics are those
which relate to marital status, educational attainment, labour force status,
occupation, industry, etc.
This chapter is devoted mainly to a discussion of the population structure as it
relates to biological attributes, such as sex and age, and achieved attributes such as
marital status, and educational attainment.
Religion as a population characteristic will also be included. Labour force status
and rural-urban distribution of populations will be discussed separately.
POPULATION STRUCTURE

Population structure means the 'make up' or composition of a population.

Looking at the population structure of a place shows how the population is
divided up between males and females of different age groups.

Population pyramids

Population pyramids show the structure of a population by comparing relative

numbers of people in different age groups.

Population structures differ markedly between Less Economically Developed

Countries LEDCs and More Economically Developed Countries MEDCs.

 The shape of a population pyramid can tell us a lot about an area's

population.
 Usually pyramids are drawn with the % of male population on the left and %
of female population on the right.
 It gives us information about birth and death rates as well as life
expectancy.
 A population pyramid tells us how many dependants there are. There are two
groups of dependants; young dependants (aged below 15) and elderly
dependants (aged over 65).
 Dependants rely upon the economically active for economic support.
 Many LEDCs have a high number of young dependants, this means that the
pyramid will have a wide base and the sides of the pyramid will decrease as
fewer people will reach old age
 However, many MEDCs have a growing number of elderly dependants,
this will be shown by the pyramid having straight sides or a barrel shape.
The pyramid will also be much taller.
 Population Pyramid for an MEDC.

Population structure of an MEDC and an LEDC

A population pyramid can be drawn up for any area, from a whole continent or
country to an individual town, city or village.

The shape of the population pyramid can help us to understand the population
structure for a place and help us interpret the birth rate, death rate and life
expectancy for a place.

The following graphs show the population pyramids of an MEDC (the UK) and an
LEDC (Mozambique), for 2000 and in 2025 using projected figures.

MEDC (aged dependent) population pyramid

UK (2000)

US Census Bureau, 2013

Notice how in the UK 2000 pyramid there is a bulge in the area of the 30-34 and
35-39 age groups, with the numbers thereafter reducing fairly steadily as the ages
increase. This matches stage 4 of the demographic transition model.
UK (2025)

US Census Bureau, 2013

Compare this to the 2025 pyramid, which would be stage 5 in the model. Here the
bulge extends much further, covering the age groups 30-64, with the numbers
beginning to reduce significantly only after 64.

The population structure for the UK shows an aged dependent population. The
sides of the pyramid are steep which indicates that few people die before they
reach old age.

The majority of children will be surviving beyond 65 or further. Life expectancies

are high because health services are good.

LEDC (Youth dependent) population pyramid

Now compare the UK population pyramids with those for Mozambique:

Mozambique (2000)

US Census Bureau, 2013

In this graph, notice that in 2000 the 0-4 age group contained the largest number of
people, with the numbers thereafter decline steadily as the ages increase. The graph
matches stage 1 in the model.

Mozambique (2025)

US Census Bureau, 2013

In the second graph, the largest group in Mozambique in 2025 is still the 0-4 age
group, but there are nearly as many people in the 5-29 age groups. Now the
population pyramid matches stage 2.

Mozambique could be described as having a youth dependent population.

The birth rate is very high (shown by the wide base at the 0 – 4-year-old cohort).

The birth rate remains steady and high but each year a number of people will die so
that much fewer people will reach the age of 65.

Although there have been improvements in health care in recent years, there are
still large numbers of people who are dying as a result of diseases such as
HIV/AIDS, malaria and cholera.

A very large percentage of the population are younger than 15, so the population is
said to be youthful.

IMPLICATIONS OF AGED AND YOUTH DEPENDENCY

Most MEDCs are experiencing slow rates of population growth and some are
experiencing population decline.

Most MEDCs are in stage 4 of the demographic transition model - the population
is high, but not growing.

Some countries have a declining population and could be said to be entering stage
5.

This means that the birth rate in their country has fallen below the death rate. Most
MEDCs have a very low rate of natural increase.

The average life expectancy in MEDCs is rising. This is due to:

 improvements in health care and medicine;

 increased leisure and recreation time;
 improved knowledge about the importance of a balanced diet and regular
exercise;
 improved living standards and quality of life.

Birth rates in MEDCs are falling as people choose to have smaller families later in
life. Contraception is easily available and well understood.

An aging population

 As people live longer, the structure of a population changes.

 Many MEDCs are now experiencing a significant increase in the number of
elderly people as a proportion of the population.
 As birth rates fall and people have smaller families, the number of young
dependants is falling and the number of elderly dependants is rising.
 In the near future this will mean that there are fewer economically active
people to support the elderly population.
  To try to balance out an ageing population, some countries adopt a pro-
natalist policy - that is, they encourage people to have more children by
offering them benefits, such as access to childcare and maternity leave.

Implications of an aged dependency population

SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
1. Benefits: Each pensioner will receive a
1. Care for the aged: This will pension in an MEDC for 20 or more years.
include medical services and Additional benefits such as free bus passes,
expensive residential accommodation. TV licences and winter fuel payments will
be a large cost to the taxpayer.
2. Family life: Hard decisions have to
2. Healthcare: Cost of residential care and
be taken about the best care for an
healthcare can be expensive. Prescriptions,
elderly person. 65 year old children
dental care, home help and hospital care can
will end up caring for their 90 year
all cost a lot of money
old parents.
3. Residential care: More money needs to
3. Medical advances: People live
be set aside to help look after the older
longer. However, many older people
people. Accommodation might need to be
now struggle with late onset and
modified or special pensioner bungalows
degenerative illnesses such as
built that have been adapted for pensioner-
Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.
use.
4. Loneliness: Often women live
longer than their male partners.

Youthful population
Many LEDCs have experienced very fast growth in recent years.

Birth rates remain very high but there is an ever-increasing number of people
living in the economically active group (from 15 to 65 years old).

As a result many LEDCs have moved from Stage 1 in the demographic transition
model to Stage 3 very quickly.

The high birth rate in LEDCs results in a high proportion of the population under
15. This youthful population gives a country specific problems.

The problems include:

 Young children need health care - for example, immunisations. This is

expensive for a country to provide.
 Young people need to be educated - providing schools and teachers are
expensive. Resources for lessons are difficult to access, and costly to buy.
 In the future, more children will reach child bearing age, putting more
pressure on the health service.

Implications of a youthful dependency population

Social implications Economic implications
1. Opportunities for Young 1. Employment/Education: The large number
People: Lack of education and of people aged 0 – 15 will put a huge pressure
employment opportunities may on the education system. Many LEDCs will not
lead young people to crime in have enough money for universal education.
order to survive and make a living. There are often few employment opportunities.
2. Medical care: Very little free
healthcare for children in LEDCs. 2. Healthcare: in LEDCs people cannot afford
In many cultures it is easier to the most basic of healthcare and will rely on
allow a sick child to die and be charities. Medicine will be basic and expensive
replaced by having another child – people will continue to die from treatable
than by spending money on illnesses.
medicine.
3. Overcrowding: Children often
live in very squalid, cramped
conditions which will allow illness
Social implications Economic implications
to spread quickly. Many children
will have lost their parents and will
be forced to live in orphanages.

Population and migration

The world population is growing rapidly. Environmental and economic factors

affect population density, distribution and structure. Migration has positive and
negative effects on a country or area.

POPULATION MOVEMENT OR MIGRATION

The world population is growing rapidly. Environmental and economic factors

affect population density, distribution and structure. Migration has positive and
negative effects on a country or area.

Population distribution

World population distribution

World population distribution describes how people are spread out across the
globe. The human population is not spread evenly. Few people live in locations
that are sparsely populated and densely populated places have many. The
distribution of people is often shown using a dot distribution map.

The Himalayas are a good example of an environment that is difficult or

challenging for people to live and work in. This large mountain range in Asia has
low temperatures, poor soil quality and the slopes are too steep for people to live
on and cultivate - and so it is sparsely populated. Other locations, such as parts of
the UK, are more densely populated because they have flatter land, good soils and
a mild climate.

Population: Where in the world do people live?

UK population distribution

Population distribution in the UK is also uneven. Some parts of the UK are very
crowded. The south east, which includes the city of London, has a much greater
population than the highlands of Scotland.

The population is very unequally distributed over the four parts of the UK:
England makes up about 84 per cent of the total population, Wales around 5 per
cent, Scotland roughly 8.5 per cent, and Northern Ireland less than 3 per cent.

Reasons for the population distribution in the UK

The south east of England covers one tenth of the land area but has over one third
of the UK population living there.

The south east of England benefits from:

 good transport links

 easy access to the rest of Europe and beyond
 being the seat of Government
 the City - the financial heart of England

North West England has a high population density because many people located
there because of raw materials (coal) and industry.

Scotland has a low population density because:

 some areas of Scotland are remote

 it is mountainous, making areas less accessible

 Cause and effects of migration

Migration is the movement of people from one permanent home to another. This
movement changes the population of a place. International migration is the
movement from one country to another.

People who leave their country are said to emigrate. People who move into another
country are called immigrants. The movement of people into a country is known as
immigration.
Every year some people leave the UK and move abroad. At the same time some
people will move into the UK. Immigrants add to the total population and
emigrants are subtracted from the total.

Sometimes people just move from one region to another within the same country.
In many developing countries, large numbers of people have moved from the
countryside to the cities in recent years. This is called rural to urban migration.

Why do people migrate?

Sometimes people have a choice about whether they move, but sometimes they are
forced to move. The reasons people leave a place are called the push factors. The
reasons people are attracted to new places to live are called the pull factors.

Advantages and disadvantages of migration

Migration can bring advantages and disadvantages to the country which is losing
people and also to the host country.

Country losing people

Advantages Disadvantages
Money sent home by People of working age move out reducing the size of the
migrants country's potential workforce
Gender imbalances are caused as it is typically men who
Decreases pressure on
seek to find employment elsewhere. Women and children
jobs and resources
are left
Advantages Disadvantages
Migrants may return
'Brain drain' if many skilled workers leave
with new skills

Host country
Advantages Disadvantages
Increasing cost of services such as
A richer and more diverse culture
health care and education
Helps to reduce any labour shortages Overcrowding
Migrants are more prepared to take on Disagreements between different
low paid, low skilled jobs religions and cultures

In addition, there are a number of obstacles that the migrant may need to
overcome, including:

 unemployment in new country

 racism and cultural differences
 language barriers
 lack of opportunities

UK migration

Migrants come to the UK from a variety of countries. People from the UK also
emigrate to countries around the world. Immigration is not new and the UK has
been a multicultural society for thousands of years. Many people in the UK are
descended from previous settlers and invaders such as the Romans, Vikings,
Saxons and Normans.

Recent migrants include people from other European countries such as Poland.
Any European Union resident is usually free to work in other European Union
countries. This freedom of movement has encouraged migration.

Another type of migrant is an asylum seeker, someone who has been forced to
leave their own country because they are in danger, eg fleeing as a result of their
religious beliefs or the danger of war.

Population density
Population density is the number of people living in an area. It is worked out by
dividing the number of people in an area by the size of the area. So, the population
density in an area is equal to the number of people per sq km, divided by the size
of the area in sq km.

The population density for the UK is approximately 260 people per sq km but if we
look at different areas within the UK, we see big differences in density.

The most densely populated areas of the UK are the major cities such as London in
the south east and Birmingham in the West Midlands. Rural, highland areas have
lower densities.

London has a population density of 4,932 per sq km. Urban spaces tend to be more
crowded. Scotland has a density of 65 per sq km. Rural spaces have less people
and they are usually more spread out.

The UK is about 100 times as densely populated as Australia which has

approximately two people per sq km.

Population density and distribution is affected by many factors. People prefer to

live in places where they can grow food, build homes and work. Some areas are
very difficult places to live and so only very few people live there.

Factors that attract people and lead to dense populations include:

 flat or gently sloping land

 mild climate
 good soils
 lowland
 water
 good transport and communication links, eg ports
 places to work
 resources, eg coal, oil
Factors that may discourage people and lead to sparse populations include:

 steep slopes
 harsh climate - very hot or very cold
 dense forest
 dry conditions
 isolated areas with poor transport links
 few jobs
 lack of resources

Population growth

The world's population does not stay the same. In fact, over the last few hundred
years it has been growing faster and faster.

In the entire world, there has been an explosion in population. During the 1st
century AD, the world population was about 300,000 people. The current
population is over 7 billion, and most of the growth has taken place within the last
100 years. In fact, in the late 1990s, the world population was 5.9 billion, which
increased to over 7 billion in 2011. During the 1960s the population was half what
it is today, ie 3.3 billion.

The world population is still growing rapidly. Although the rate of growth is
slowing slightly, there are so many young people that population will continue to
grow for some time.

What causes population to change?

 births (eg availability of contraception and trends)

 deaths (eg war and disease)
 migration (eg people moving into or out of a country)
CENSUS
Census is the total process of collecting, compiling, analyzing, evaluating,
publishing and disseminating statistical data regarding the population and housing
and their geographical location.

Characteristics, Types and Importance, or Reasons for Population Census

Characteristics

1. It must be conducted by government of the state or country where the census is

taking place.
2. It must be conducted at the same time (simultaneously) throughout the country.
3. It must involve regular counting at specific intervals of time, eg, United state of
America's population taken in 1790, 1800, 1810, 1820... 2010 which is an interval
of 10 years.
4. It must reveal the population of a country at a specific period of time e.g
America's population census as of 1790 was 3,929,214; as of 1890, it was
62,979,766; as of 1990, it was 248,709,873.
5. It must involve the physical counting of people rather than by proxy.
6. It must involve experts who are knowledgeable in population studies and they
must be of high integrity.

Types of population Census

There are two main types of population census and they are:

1. Defacto Population census: This is the type of population census which involves
the counting of only those who are present physically during census. In this group,
only those who are present physically or seen are counted.

2. De jure population census: This is the type of population census which involves
the counting of people who have been permanent residents of a specific area. It
does not matter whether the person is present of not. This is population census
commonly referred to as counting by proxy.

Importance or Reasons of Population Census

The importance or reasons for conducting a population census include:aiding the

government to know the number of people living in the country and the structure
of the population; helping in the determination of taxable adults so as to know the
amount of revenue expected from that sector; enabling the country to forecast her
future economic needs eg, housing, food etc and the provision of statistics to the
government to determine the level of unemployment in the country

Further importance could be: its assistance in the determination of the standard of
living of the people in a country through per capital income; using the statistics of
the number of people in a country to formulate economic policies eg, revenue
formula is at times based on population figures; the estimation of the number of
immigrants in a country, the assistance to the government in the distribution of
resources eg, areas of high population will get more resources than areas of Low
population; giving the government an idea of the different population in various
parts of the country and this can help in the provision of social amenities like
housing, water, electricity, roads, schools, hospitals etc. It doesn't just end there,
Population census is also very vital in giving detailed information to the
government on areas of the country where population per land area is high or low;
reveals level of man power by helping to reveal the total number of people who are
working-when the level of manpower is high, the economic development of the
country is assured and assists international agencies and governments in giving
aids and other assistance to countries; assists international investors in making
investment decisions. In some developing nations, Population is often used to
allocate parliamentary seats. States with high Population are given more
parliamentary seats than states with low population.

Census Method

Census method is the method of statistical enumeration where all members of the
population are studied. A population refers to the set of all observations under
concern. For example, if you want to carry out a survey to find out student’s
feedback about the facilities of your school, all the students of your school would
form a part of the ‘population’ for your study.

At a more realistic level, a country wants to maintain information and records

about all households. It can collect this information by surveying all households in
the country using the census method.

In our country, the Government conducts the Census of India every ten years. The
Census appropriates information from households regarding their incomes, the
earning members, the total number of children, members of the family, etc. This
method must take into account all the units. It cannot leave out anyone in
collecting data. Once collected, the Census of India reveals demographic
information such as birth rates, death rates, total population, population growth rate
of our country, etc. The last census was conducted in the year 2011.

Sampling Method

Like we have studied, the population contains units with some similar
characteristics on the basis of which they are grouped together for the study. In the
case of the Census of India, for example, the common characteristic was that all
units are Indian nationals. But it is not always practical to collect information from
all the units of the population.

It is a time-consuming and costly method. Thus, an easy way out would be to

collect information from some representative group from the population and then
make observations accordingly. This representative group which contains some
units from the whole population is called the sample.

How to select a Sample?

The first most important step in selecting a sample is to determine the population.
Once the population is identified, a sample must be selected. A good sample is one
which is:

 Small in size.
 It provides adequate information about the whole population.
 It takes less time to collect and is less costly.

In the case of our previous example, you could choose students from your class to
be the representative sample out of the population (all students in the school).
However, there must be some rationale behind choosing the sample. If you think
your class comprises a set of students who will give unbiased opinions/feedback or
if you think your class contains students from different backgrounds and their
responses would be relevant to your student, you must choose them as your
sample. Otherwise, it is ideal to choose another sample which might be more
relevant.

Again, realistically, the government wants estimates on the average income of the
Indian household. It is difficult and time-consuming to study all households. The
government can simply choose, say, 50 households from each state of the country
and calculate the average of that to arrive at an estimate. This estimate is not
necessarily the actual figure that would be arrived at if all units of the population
underwent study. But, it approximately gives an idea of what the figure might look
like.

Difference between Census and Sample Surveys

Parameter Census Sample Survey
A statistical method that
A statistical method that studies only a
Definition studies all the units or representative group of the
members of a population. population, and not all its
members.
Calculation Total/Complete Partial
It is a time-consuming
Time involved It is a quicker process.
process.
It is a relatively
Cost involved It is a costly method.
inexpensive method.
The results are relatively
The results obtained are
inaccurate due to leaving
accurate as each member is
Accuracy out of items from the
surveyed. So, there is a
sample. The resulting error
negligible error.
is large.
Reliability Highly reliable Low reliability
The smaller the sample
Error Not present
size, the larger the error.
This method is suited for This method is suited for
Relevance
heterogeneous data. homogeneous data.

Solved Example for You

Question: What are the merits and demerits of the sampling method?

Answer: Merits –
  It is an economically viable method as it is less costly, saves time and
requires less manpower to collect data.
 The result of the census method may be checked with the help of the
sampling method.
 In cases where the population size is too large, the sampling method is easy
and more practical.
 We can use it to make estimations about population characteristics without
even surveying all units of the population.

Demerits –

 If the sampling is not properly conducted, it might lead to erroneous and

unrepresentative results.
 Sampling normally generates an error due to leaving out of units from the
population. If a crucial unit is left out of the sample, the resulting error will
be large.
 If skilled personnel are not available to interpret the data, the results drawn
will be unreliable.