Unit 5.

Populations, Migration and Employment

A. Demographic changes
B. Population dynamics
C. Reasons and implications of high mortality in developing countries

A. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Change is inherent to demography because demography is the study of how and why populations
change. Without change, demography does not exist as a discipline.
In its simplest definition, demography is the scientific study of human populations.
In more conceptual terms, demography examines transitions from one state of being to a different state
of being where these transitions are set in space and time. Demography is concerned with how, when, why,
where and to whom these transitions occur. Measurement in demography applies concepts and methods from
statistics and mathematics. Most significantly, demography measures the probabilities that a group of people in
one state will remain in that state or move to another state in a fixed period of time.
Demography seeks to understand population changes by investigating such demographic components
as gender, age, ethnicity, language knowledge, employment status and location. Demographic changes are
the processes of change in the quantifiable statistics of a given
population. These elements and how they change constitute vital
information about the population of a given location and its culture.

In many developed countries, the working population will

decline significantly and this gap will need to be filled by immigration,
later retirements and productivity gains, which could be accelerated
by the growth of the digital ‘machine-to-machine’ economy.

While much has been made of the impact of ageing in the

Western world, the most dramatic changes will be seen in emerging
markets as birth rates and life expectancy around the world begin to
converge. The shifts in population and economic growth will be
accentuated by talent migration as successful economies draw
people from weaker
counterparts.

Change in Europe population, 2013-2050

The shifts in population and economic growth will be accentuated
by talent migration as successful economies draw people from
weaker counterparts.
Median population age, 2013-2050
By 2025 there are going to be one billion more people on
the planet, 300 million of which will be people aged over 65.
However, there will be significant regional and country
differences. Around, 50% of the world’s population growth
between now and 2050 is expected to come from Africa.
An ageing workforce, ageing customers, the shift in economic power and the rise of the Millennial
generation (Generation Z) will have profound implications and opportunities for a business. A business will need
to anticipate demographic developments and bring products and services into line with the changing customer
base in the markets a business serves.

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 As people live longer and state support declines, the competitive frontline is likely to shift from lending
towards helping people to fund and manage their retirements. Reputation and trust will be crucial in sustaining
market share in an increasingly empowered and knowledgeable retirement market.
At the local level, demand for health-care services may even be more age based than what is allowed by
the national capitation formula, where the elderly is more likely to be admitted and for longer days of stay. An
aging population is more likely to put considerable pressure on public spending programs, such as health-care
and pension plans.
Therefore, demographic changes influence all aspects of human activity, including economic, social,
political and cultural.

B. POPULATION DYNAMICS
Population describes a group of individuals of the same species occupying a specific area at a specific
time. Some characteristics of populations that are of interest to sociologists include the population density,
the birthrate, and the death rate. If there is immigration into the population, or emigration out of it, then the
immigration rate and emigration rate are also of interest. Together, these population parameters, or
characteristics, describe how the population density changes over time. The ways in which population
densities fluctuate—increasing, decreasing, or both over time—is the subject of population dynamics.
Population density measures the number of individuals per unit area, for example, the number of
deer per square kilometer. Although this is straightforward in theory, determining population densities for
many species can be challenging in practice.
Population dynamics looks at how the population of a country or region or even the world changes. It
takes into account the factors that increases and decreases the population to create total growth rate.
Three (3) Factors:
1. Birth Rates
Birth rates vary by society for a number of reasons, including personal choice and social and political
factors. Factors such as poverty level, access to contraception, maternal and infant care, and availability of
nutrition all impact the birth rate in a society.
Fertility levels are lower in developed countries than in developing nations because more women in
developed countries work outside of the home and tend to marry later and to use contraception and abortion to
delay or prevent childbearing. Nevertheless, fertility rates in nearly all countries have been falling since the 1950s
2. Migration – One important factor that accounts for a change in population is migration. At the broadest
level, migration refers to movement; it's the flow or circulation of people in societies.
There are two kinds of migration:
1. Emigration means to leave one's own country for another.
2. Immigration means to enter into a country other than one's own.
Both of these processes impact population change.

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 3. Mortality – This simply means the number of deaths that occur in a society. This is usually calculated
by looking at the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals.
Just like birth rate, the death rate in a country depends on things such as availability of quality medical
care, disease, war, or famine.
A population's age structure is an important factor influencing its death rate. Death rates are highest
among infants, young children, and the elderly, so societies with many elderly people are likely to have more
deaths per 1,000 people than those where most citizens are young adults. Developed countries with good
medical services have more people in older age brackets than developing countries, so the developed societies
can have higher death rates even though they are healthier places to live overall.

The human population has grown rapidly because of the expansion of agriculture and industrial
production and lower death rates from improvements in hygiene and medicine.
In 2006, the population of developed countries grew exponentially at 0.1% per year. Developing countries
grew 15 times faster at 1.5% per year. Population increases because of births and immigration and decreases
through deaths and emigration.
Instead of using raw numbers, crude birth rates and crude death rates are used (based on total number
of births or deaths per 1,000 people in a population).

B1. POPULATION PYRAMID

A population pyramid, or age structure graph, is a simple graph that conveys the complex social
narrative of a population through its shape. Demographers use these simple graphs to evaluate the extent of
development for a given population – usually an individual nation – and to make predictions about the types of
services that population will need e.g. schools, hospitals, homes, etc. And while every population pyramid is
unique, most can be categorized into three prototypical shapes: expansive (young and growing), constrictive
(elderly and shrinking), and stationary (little or no population growth).

The Three Basic Shapes of Population Pyramids

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 1. EXPANSIVE

Expansive population pyramids

are used to describe populations that are
young and growing. They are often
characterized by their typical ‘pyramid’
shape, which has a broad base and
narrow top. Expansive population
pyramids show a larger percentage of the
population in the younger age cohorts,
usually with each age cohort smaller in
size than the one below it. These types of
populations are typically representative of
developing nations, whose populations
often have high fertility rates and lower
than average life expectancies.

2. CONSTRICTIVE

Constrictive population pyramids are

used to describe populations that are
elderly and shrinking. Constrictive
pyramids can often look like beehives and
typically have an inverted shape with the
graph tapering in at the bottom.
Constrictive pyramids have smaller
percentages of people in the younger age
cohorts and are typically characteristic of
countries with higher levels of social and
economic development, where access to
quality education and health care is
available to a large portion of the
population.

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 3. STATIONARY

Stationary, or near stationary,

population pyramids are used to
describe populations that are not
growing. They are characterized by their
rectangular shape, displaying somewhat
equal percentages across age cohorts
that taper off toward the top. These
pyramids are often characteristic of
developed nations, where birth rates are
low and overall quality of life is high.

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Source: PopulationPyramid.net
B2. Demographic Transition Model?
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is based on historical population trends of two demographic
characteristics – birth rate and death rate – to suggest that a country’s total population growth rate cycles through
stages as that country develops economically. Each stage is characterized by a specific relationship between
birth rate (number of annual births per one thousand people) and death rate (number of annual deaths per one
thousand people). As these rates change in relation to each other, their produced impact greatly affects a
country’s total population. Within the model, a country will progress over time from one stage to the next as
certain social and economic forces act upon the birth and death rates. Every country can be placed within the
DTM, but not every stage of the model has a country that meets its specific definition. For example, there are
currently no countries in Stage 1, nor are there any countries in Stage 5, but the potential is there for movement
in the future.

What are the stages of the Demographic Transition Model?

1. In Stage 1, which applied to most of the world before the Industrial Revolution, both birth rates and
death rates are high. As a result, population size remains fairly constant but can have major swings
with events such as wars or pandemics.
2. In Stage 2, the introduction of modern medicine lowers death rates, especially among children, while
birth rates remain high; the result is rapid population growth. Many of the least developed countries
today are in Stage 2.
3. In Stage 3, birth rates gradually decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an
increase in women’s status, and access to contraception. Population growth continues, but at a lower
rate. Most developing countries are in Stage 3.
4. In Stage 4, birth and death rates are both low, stabilizing the population. These countries tend to have
stronger economies, higher levels of education, better healthcare, a higher proportion of working
women, and a fertility rate hovering around two children per woman. Most developed countries are in
Stage 4.
5. A possible Stage 5 would include countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly below
replacement level (2 children) and the elderly population is greater than the youthful population.

Limitations of the Demographic Transition Model

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 Like any model, there will be outliers and exceptions to the rule and the Demographic Transition Model
is no different. Additionally, there are things the DTM cannot reveal: the impact of other demographic variables
such as migration, are not considered, nor does the model predict how long a country will be in each stage. But
even so, the relationship between birth rate and death rate is an important concept when discussing population
and any patterns, such as those provided by the DTM, that aid in understanding are helpful.

C. REASONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF HIGH MORTALITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The developing world is an area of high birth rates and high mortality, especially infant and juvenile
mortality. Fertility rates in many developing countries are in the range 5.5 to 7.0 in recent years. The infant
mortality rate in many of the world's poorest countries this rate is between 100 and 150.
Even more striking is the discrepancy between mortality rates for children aged 1 to 4. In many developing
countries it is 50 to 75 times greater. To summarize, in the most wretched countries for every 1,000 births, there
are 100 to 150 deaths in the first year and an additional 100 to 150 deaths before age 5. Many international
health experts regard the combination of these two rates, i.e. the mortality of children under 5 per 1,000 live
births, as the best single statistic for evaluating the overall health status of a developing country. Because of the
extremely high death rates for infants and young children, 50% to 60% of all deaths in the poorest developing
countries occur before the age of 5.

The Major Causes of Death in The Developing World

• Severe poverty is the root cause of the high mortality rates in the developing world. Poverty results in
malnutrition, overcrowded living conditions, inadequate sanitation, and contaminated water.
• Routine vaccination is often unavailable for both children and adults, and basic clinical care for the acutely
ill is in short supply. Thus, poverty creates a fertile environment for infectious and parasitic diseases.
Poverty also leads to illiteracy and inadequate education. Deficient education, especially of females, is
closely correlated with poor health in developing countries.
• In addition, protein-energy malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, by lowering resistance to infection,
are contributing factors to many deaths.
• Finally, many children have multiple infections simultaneously, e.g. measles plus malaria.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), less than a quarter of the population in developing
nations lives to age 70. In addition, almost a third of deaths in those countries occur among children younger
than 14. These are the top 10 causes of death in developing countries as listed by WHO.

Top 10 Causes of Death in Developing Countries

1. Coronary Heart Disease- 7.4 million deaths; estimated three-quarters of these deaths took place in
low and middle-income countries.
2. Lower Respiratory Infections- 1.5 million deaths annually, 42 percent of which occur in developing
countries.
3. HIV/AIDS- In 2016, HIV/AIDS caused one million deaths.
4. Perinatal Conditions-of the 133 million babies born each year, 2.8 million die within the first week of
life. This is called perinatal mortality; it refers to the death of a mother or her child in the time during and
following birth.
5. Stroke and Other Cerebrovascular Diseases-5M people die from stroke each year.
6. Diarrheal Diseases- 525,000 children under the age of 5 die from diarrheal each year.
7. Malaria- More than one million people die from malaria each year.
8. Tuberculosis- There were 1.7 million deaths from tuberculosis in 2016. According to the Health Sector
Priorities Review from the World Bank, tuberculosis is treatable, but without chemotherapy, the death rate
is 50 percent.
9. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)- WHO estimates that in 2015, 3.17 million
deaths were caused by COPD, 90 percent of which occurred in low or middle-income countries.
10. Traffic Accidents- More than 1.25 million people die each year from road traffic accidents, 90 percent
of which occur in low- or middle-income countries. According to WHO, causes of road traffic accidents
include unsafe vehicles, inadequate law enforcement, drivers under the influence and speeding.

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 What Can Be Done?
• Scaling up effective health services: more than 60% of all under-five child deaths can be avoided with proven,
low-cost preventive care and treatment. Preventive care includes: continuous breast-feeding, vaccination,
adequate nutrition and, in Africa, the use of insecticide treated bed nets.
• The major causes of under-five deaths need to be treated rapidly: for example, with salt solutions for diarrhea or
simple antibiotics for pneumonia and other infections.
• To reach the majority of children who today do not have access to this care, we need more and better trained
and equipped health workers. Families and communities need to know how best to bring up their children
healthily and deal with sickness when it occurs.
• Political awareness, commitment and leadership are needed to ensure that child health receives the attention
and resources needed to accelerate progress towards MDG4. Better information on the number and causes of
under-five child deaths will help leaders to decide on the best course of action.
• Modern vaccination campaigns against malaria, smallpox, yellow fever, and cholera as well as the proliferation
of public health facilities, clean water supplies, improved nutrition, and public education.

References

Boucher, L. (2016). What are the different types of population pyramid?. Population Education. Retrieved from:
https://populationeducation.org/what-are-different-types-population-pyramids/

Grover, D. (2014). What is the Demographic Transition Model?

Retrieved from: https://populationeducation.org/what-demographic-transition-model/

Population Pyramid. Retrieved from https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2019/

Todaro, M.P., & Smith, S.C. (2015). Economic Development: 12th Edition. Pearson. Retrieved from
www.pearsonhighered.com Retrieved on November 2, 2019

World Economic Forums (2017). Migration and its impact on cities. Retrieved from www.weforum.org Retrieved
on November 2, 2019

Video Materials
1. What Demography is all about? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCuW6FUBIEA
2. Overpopulation – The Human Explosion Explained
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsBT5EQt348
3. Population pyramids: Powerful predictors of the future - Kim Preshoff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLmKfXwWQtE

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